Series Preview: No. 9 Texas A&M at No. 15 Auburn
Who: Auburn University (17-1, 0-0 SEC)
Where: Plainsman Park — Auburn, AL
When: Friday 7:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Saturday 2:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Sunday 1:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Pitching matchups
Friday: Stephen Kolek (RHP, 3-1, 1.46) vs. Casey Mize (RHP, 4-0, 2.13)
Saturday: John Doxakis (LHP, 3-0, 0.81) vs. Davis Daniel (RHP, 2-0, 5.06)
Sunday: Mitchell Kilkenny (RHP, 4-0, 1.30) vs. Tanner Burns (RHP, 2-1, 1.69)
Scouting Auburn
If you look at the numbers, Auburn looks like a scary squad. The team is 17-1 with some eye-popping offensive numbers so far in 2018. Overall, the Tigers are hitting .317 with a slugging percentage of .493 and an on-base percentage of .443 which by the numbers makes the group one of the best offensive units in college baseball. By comparison, the Aggies are batting at a .313 clip with a slugging percentage of .483 and an on-base percentage of .392. Auburn's numbers collectively are slightly higher, and that's saying something because Texas A&M has been producing runs at a fever pitch (less Tuesday's strange 18-inning, one-run performance against UT-A).
So it looks like a daunting task for the Aggie pitching staff this weekend in Auburn. Well, it will certainly be a big challenge because any SEC road series is a challenge, but the Tigers' offensive output needs to be put into proper context. The home team hasn't faced a difficult schedule, to say the least, with weekend series against Bryant, Longwood, BYU, and Northeastern. Auburn did beat Memphis and Georgia Tech this week, but that hardly legitimizes the schedule to date and the run production.
Brandon Ventor leads the Tiger offense with a .443 batting average, a .700 slugging average and an impressive .536 on-base percentage. Senior Brett Wright leads the team in most power categories despite only 35 at-bats to date, with five home runs and a stout .914 slugging percentage. As a team, Auburn has seven players hitting over .300 and nine hitters already have 10 or more RBI. The Aggies have just five players with 10 or more RBI.
On the mound, Auburn could arguably have the best starting pitcher in the nation. Preseason All-American Casey Mize has lived up to every bit of his hype, winning all four games he's started and boasting an ERA of 2.13. Even more impressive, Mize has allowed just 10 hits all season in 25 innings. In that span, he's struck out 38 opposing hitters while walking only three. That is filthy stuff right there. It also means Aggie hitters will have to scrap for every run they can produce and hope the pitching can hold up on Friday.
The news gets better on Saturday. Davis Daniel will take the hill on Saturday and his 5.06 ERA looks much better to A&M hitters (on paper). He has allowed more hits (21) than innings pitched (16). While Auburn has not officially named a Sunday starter, the odds-on favorite to toe the rubber on Sunday is freshman Tanner Burns. He's started four games on the weekend and his numbers are very good with an ERA of 1.69 and opposing batters hitting just .197. He has had a few control issues, walking eight batters in 21 innings.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
The biggest storyline to watch this weekend is the mental health of the offensive lineup. After a bizarre Tuesday night match-up with UT-Arlington that saw 17 scoreless innings and eventually led to an uncharacteristic flat mid-week loss, the offense must turn-around and face arguably the best Friday night starter in the country, Casey Mize. Some of these same hitters struggled with Mize last season in College Station when he struck out 12 and grabbed the Friday night win against the 2017 Aggies. It's a good bet the bats will struggle to hit Mize hard, and the offense will have to dig deep to produce runs. The bigger question is how such a difficult match-up will affect this lineup coming off the heels of Tuesday's frustration. In that context, the key to this series will be on Saturday when the sticks will see a hurler that historically gives up runs. Will the offense come out hot, or will the players allow recent struggles at the plate to linger and mentally affect the approaches the players will have at the plate?
Specifically, over the past week, the top of the order is still producing and getting on-base, while the bottom part of the order is having a hard time generating quality at-bats. Cole Bedford (.264), Baine Schoenvogel (.216), Hunter Coleman (.200), and George Janca (.189) are scuffling in the 6-9 holes in the order and that stops a lot of potential run-producing rallies. The top five starters in the batting order are all hitting over .300 and have a combined 88 RBI. The bottom four in the order has delivered a grand total of 18 RBI. It's unrealistic to expect the lower half of the lineup to produce at the level of Helman, Shewmake, and Foster, but if this offense expects to make noise in SEC play, A&M will need more production from the bottom of the order. Does that mean swapping out Allonte Wingate for George Janca, or playing Will Frizzell full-time? I don't know. We'll have to see.
On the mound, the Aggies have been dominant, to say the least, with a team ERA of 1.94. The three weekend starters are even more impressive with ERA's between 0.81 to 1.46. The big storyline on the mound this weekend will be Stephen Kolek's head-to-head match-up with Auburn ace Casey Mize. Kolek will have to be at his best to match Mize. He's had a tendency to lose control and give up a few untimely walks. In fact, he leads the team in walks with eight. He'll have to be sharp with his control and minimize baserunners, and avoid the crooked number. Kolek will need to go into Friday's start assuming that 2-3 runs will win this game. The good news here is the Aggies can still realistically win the series with a Friday loss. The team will have favorable match-ups on the mound the rest of the weekend. If Kolek can throw a masterpiece and take down the All-American, that will be a big blow to Auburn and a sweep is certainly in the cards.
What's at stake this weekend
Everything is at stake this weekend. This one is for real. SEC play is here. From here on out, wins are much tougher to come by, and the competition is the best in the nation. The real season starts now. Top-ten ranked baseball teams picked to finish near the top of the league want to jump out to a quick start and get some momentum going to start this long 10-week grind. Even more importantly for the Aggies, SEC play starts on the road and this will be the first true road games of the season. How does this squad come together on the road and handle the adversity of playing in front of a hostile crowd? Play well and sprint out to a 2-1/3-0 start and this team is feeling good about itself heading home for the SEC home opener against Ole Miss. Lose this series to Auburn, and the pressure is on to rebound the next week against the Rebels. It's always a good thing to start off strong and establish your street credibility right away in the SEC. This is a huge weekend for this Aggie team because it's the first SEC series of the 2018 season and everybody in the conference is watching.
