TMC showing we peaked the week on 1-3 thru 1-9

10,225 Views | 57 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by DadHammer
DadHammer
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Good news. If it follows the SA curves it will be falling really fast.

Let's hope we can put this behind us and move on.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/weekly-average-of-covid-19-testing-metrics-across-tmc-hospital-systems/

Omicron might be the Covid version we needed to finally treat this like a common cold.

St Hedwig Aggie
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DadHammer said:

Good news. If it follows the SA curves it will be falling really fast.

Let's hope we can put this behind us and move on.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/weekly-average-of-covid-19-testing-metrics-across-tmc-hospital-systems/

Omicron might be the Covid version we needed to finally treat this like a common cold.




That last past is a nice thought…in theory…
Make Mental Asylums Great Again!
DadHammer
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We can pray that it is.
2wealfth Man
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would say give it a few more weeks to see what happens with schools and colleges opening; gonna drive a lot of spread (and good immunity).
KidDoc
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Not in my clinic in Aggieland- it is running rampant. I've only had a few infants briefly hospitalized but the numbers are pretty astounding the last 10 days.
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Reveille
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We are seeing more than we can handle in Garland right now. It is crazy!
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cbaker20
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My towns trajectory is straight up right now as well but very little difference in hospitalization/icu boarders, which is great. I'm in west Texas. I bet a third to a half of my towns residents are walking around with omicron.
Bert315
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Houston definitely peaked and is coming down rapidly at all of my hospitals facilities. Did not reach Delta levels even with 3x as many positive tests. LOS average is down dramatically which helped clear bed space for those who needed it.
Aston94
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Houston was definitely the initial area for Omicron in Texas, so the rest of us should be a week or 2 behind, good news if that it is dropping as fast as it went up, and that trend should continue.

P.U.T.U
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No way we peaked then, I am down the street from Reveille and I know a ton of families in the past 2 weeks that have had it go through their house. I type this from my house where we know one kid gave it at least to 4 others in the class last week so I have my kids quarantined at home. My parents and sister are in Houston and their families both have it now as well, several friends in Houston had it last week.
Reveille
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P.U.T.U said:

No way we peaked then, I am down the street from Reveille and I know a ton of families in the past 2 weeks that have had it go through their house. I type this from my house where we know one kid gave it at least to 4 others in the class last week so I have my kids quarantined at home. My parents and sister are in Houston and their families both have it now as well, several friends in Houston had it last week.
I saw so many per day that were positive that it was inevitable that I would come down with it again. Unfortunately, I turned positive yesterday so now stuck working from home with telemedicine.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
amercer
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Even for a v shaped super sharp peak, just as many people get it on the way down as caught it on the way up. The east coast metros have clearly peaked. The rest of the country is somewhere on the curve.
BlackGoldAg2011
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here's Harris County numbers:

and for what it's worth, the first few weeks in December, from watching closely it looked like Houston's wave took off maybe a week or two ahead of most of the rest of the state. So that could explain discrepancy between TMC numbers and observations from around the state
DadHammer
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Most of my friends in houston had Covid from about Dec 18th thru the new year.

Looks like we are 2-3 weeks in front of CS.
SwigAg11
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BlackGoldAg2011 said:

here's Harris County numbers:

and for what it's worth, the first few weeks in December, from watching closely it looked like Houston's wave took off maybe a week or two ahead of most of the rest of the state. So that could explain discrepancy between TMC numbers and observations from around the state

That graph looks like a great data point showing the lesser severity of Omicron.
01agtx
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FWIW, I get tested weekly at a county site. Down the street is a rapid place with big advertisements, for all to see. Most people stop at the rapid site. 3 weeks ago the line was at least 1/2 a mile long at the rapid place. 2 weeks ago it was probably over a mile. Last week the line was back down to 1/2 a mile and this week you could pull right in. Obviously this is no scientific study but hopefully it's an indicator that numbers are going down.
RandyAg98
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Where are you?
barbacoa taco
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I think it's more likely we peak in the last week of January/first week of February. Hopefully this thing drops like its hot after that.
01agtx
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shertown04
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I had 3 out of the 6 coworkers that sit closest to me test positive this weekend. I had to go in to the office to train a newbie so he sat in my cube for about 2 hours and then tested positive 2 days later. I found out on Monday. Coincidently the same day I had a headache hit me pretty hard. I got tested yesterday. Negative! Don't have to spend my birthday locked up! Whoop!
RockwallAg99
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Reveille said:

We are seeing more than we can handle in Garland right now. It is crazy!
Seems like we are not quite on the downhill side here in Rockwall. Getting covid multiple covid notifications from school almost every day now.
3rd Generation Ag
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I realize she is weakened due to recent cancer surgery with complications, but a 28 year old ag teacher at our school is in a rehab center..she actually had delta and omicron and now has brain and lung damage. While it was almost nothing for my six year old granddaughter, some people are still getting hit hard by this.
BlackGoldAg2011
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SwigAg11 said:

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

here's Harris County numbers:

and for what it's worth, the first few weeks in December, from watching closely it looked like Houston's wave took off maybe a week or two ahead of most of the rest of the state. So that could explain discrepancy between TMC numbers and observations from around the state

That graph looks like a great data point showing the lesser severity of Omicron.
agreed, and looking at TMC's historical charts. the TOTAL number of patients in ICU actually decreased from 10/24/21 to 1/9/22. that leads me to believe a chunk of the numbers in the chart above are hospitalized "with" covid rather than from. Much like early reports were showing other places. All good signs.

and here is what it looks like all the way back to the beginning
rhoswen
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Can I get a link to where that image came from? Would like to share.
BlackGoldAg2011
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rhoswen said:

Can I get a link to where that image came from? Would like to share.
the graphs or the TMC data i mentioned?

the graphs i made. I have a spreadsheet that i linked to the texas dshs database that pulls down the data daily and then runs a bunch of query's and pivots to get it in the form I want to view it in. This graph is one of those. you are welcome to share the graphs, and this is where all the data is from if anyone is skeptical https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/
(edit: and just to be clear, i named it houston area, but the daily case numbers are specific to harris county, while the hospital and ICU numbers are all of TSA Q since they don't have a smaller breakdown than that)

if you are talking about the TMC data 'm refering to this chart
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-bed-capacity-and-occupancy/
for the historical, i've started saving a copy every once in a while so i can look back and compare, but for the 10/24/21 & 1/2/22 one I got them from the "wayback machine" here are the 3 historicals i have saved plus TMCs latest one




aggiemike02
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wastewater sampling for Houston also showing material decline from 1/3-1/10 (data is delayed)
Caliber
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The Harris county Covid Data hub shows well past the peak, in agreement with peaking as mentioned by the OP.

https://covid-harriscounty.hub.arcgis.com/pages/cumulative-data

AggieFlyboy
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3rd Generation Ag said:

I realize she is weakened due to recent cancer surgery with complications, but a 28 year old ag teacher at our school is in a rehab center..she actually had delta and omicron and now has brain and lung damage. While it was almost nothing for my six year old granddaughter, some people are still getting hit hard by this.


Anecdotes are just that, I have a friend in the hospital right now due to heart complications from a run of the mill stomach bug he had in 2018. These things happened all the time before covid
PerpetualLurker
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Do you have a mobile friendly link for the houston data? I could only find a map of hotspots, couldn't see trends very well. Not like the Boston data which was easy to see.

This stuff is fascinating to say the least.
aggiemike02
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sorry i don't, the rice spatal lab site is the only one i know. not the greatest but sliding across data shows the reduction but very broadly. would be cool if it were better like some of the other cities have.
PerpetualLurker
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Fair enough, thanks!
P.U.T.U
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The lines of the testing centers the past month have been ridiculous and yes you went from a line around the building to 2 lines and now 3 lines. Neighborhood Facebook pages says 3-5 hour waits.

I would think despite all of the positives that there are many more people positive. My son tested positive so he has to do his quarintine and I show minor symptoms (congestion) which may be allergies, a cold, or Covid. But with me being stuck at home there is no reason for me to go through the hassle of being tested. My daughter shows no symptoms but has been around my son for over a week so she either has immunity from getting it this time last year or has an asymptomatic case. But not going to waste my time for money (there is a nurse that will come to your house and do the test but it cost money) to get us tested when we are stuck inside anyways

Soup93
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This graph is not accurate, in that, it looks like the City of Houston has not added any data since 1/14. So even though numbers are trending down, it's not at the rate the graph makes it out to be. Maybe they will update the numbers soon.
Buying_time
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Boots on ground observations can be great leading indicators. Hopefully the lines keep getting shorter.
BlackGoldAg2011
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Soup93 said:

This graph is not accurate, in that, it looks like the City of Houston has not added any data since 1/14. So even though numbers are trending down, it's not at the rate the graph makes it out to be. Maybe they will update the numbers soon.

Ha, I wonder if their hub is just pulling from the state dshs database because coincidentally that's the date the state changed the formatting of their databases. It completely broke my data link and I had to rebuild the whole thing in order to continue updating it.
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