Anecdotally, everyone I know getting it in this round is vaccinated. There are even a couple who got it last year, got vaccinated, and are getting it again.

vaccine wearing off + seasonal cycles in different regions

Why did you pick July? We are roughly half the case counts of where were in September.

Virus gonna virus?

Ya, not concerned here. At all.

jopatura said:

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Anecdotally, everyone I know getting it in this round is vaccinated. There are even a couple who got it last year, got vaccinated, and are getting it again.

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If we just talk about the past month, the people I know that got it were vaccinated. However, back in Aug/Sept, everyone I knew who got it were not vaccinated. Also, anecdotally, the people I know who have gotten it recently are basically fine after a day. None hospitalized. Back in Aug/Sep, I knew multiple people hospitalized and most said it really kicked their ass for a week or more. Several still dealing with long covid.

Again, all anecdotal, but based off of my personal experience, the original variant that came through a year ago was relatively mild. I knew some older people who struggled, a couple of friends of friends who died, but they were either older or already in bad health. Delta changed things, though. Over the summer, everyone I knew was getting their ass kicked by Delta. I know multiple people hospitalized for several weeks. One guy I work with was in the hospital over a month. All were unvaccinated. I don't think I know of anyone who was vaccinated getting covid at that time. Things died down late Sept and October. It does seem like it is kicking back up again, though, but I don't know of anyone with a serious case. Everyone I've heard of getting it personally, has made short work of it. Of course, at this point, I think pretty much everyone I know is either vaccinated or has already had it. I really think the first covid was pretty mild, but Delta changed things, especially for the unvaccinated. However, at this point, since nearly everyone has some level of immunity, it will be interesting to see if we get a large number of hospitalizations again after the holidays.

I think one problem is that we've vastly overestimated the number of unconfirmed Covid cases. Everyone who's had the sniffles in the last two years thinks they got covid. The number with actual naturally acquired immunity is vastly lower.

Hospitalizations are still 90% unvaccinated, so there are clearly a lot of people who aren't as protected as they thought.

wcb said:

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riverrataggie said:

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Why did you pick July? We are roughly half the case counts of where were in September.

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Lowest numbers we've seen since the beginning. At that point in time I seriously thought this thing was over. Really did not expect a fall wave given vaccination numbers.

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• It's a respiratory virus that is endemic and has been for well over a year.
• We've known since almost the beginning that the vaccines would not be permanent because of the type of virus it is.
• It was speculated since the viruses were first produced that they would only work for about 6 months. That was confirmed several months ago. Thus, anyone that got the vaccine early long since lapsed unless they got a booster.
• And we've known for 2-3 months that the vaccines don't stop transmission from our very own health authorities.
• It's easier to catch in close quarters; cold weather puts people in close quarters.

We were always going to have a fall wave.

What happened to herd immunity? Have not seen it mentioned anymore.

This isn't the type of virus where that will work. Far too easy to spread, and too easy to have with little to no symptoms, and immune resistance from vaccines or previous infection probably doesn't last long enough.

It really is much like the common cold viruses regarding how easily it spreads and how persistent it is in the population, but it unfortunately can be much more deadly to some individuals

It's almost like the "vaccine" is just a flu shot. And the boosters are the same formula.

FbgTxAg said:

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It's almost like the "vaccine" is just a flu shot. And the boosters are the same formula.

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You say this as if it's a bad thing. Sure, it would be great if it gave us immunity forever. But, keeping people out of the hospital and from dying is great.

I'd guess that at some point it's actually a part of the flu shot and just given annually.

Now do flu, cold, pneumonia, RSV and every other virus.

El Chupacabra said:

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ORAggieFan said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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It's almost like the "vaccine" is just a flu shot. And the boosters are the same formula.

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You say this as if it's a bad thing. Sure, it would be great if it gave us immunity forever. But, keeping people out of the hospital and from dying is great.

I'd guess that at some point it's actually a part of the flu shot and just given annually.

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Since I've never (in my adult life, that I remember) had a flu shot, let me ask: Does one have to get a flu shot, then a second shot, then a booster? And then continue getting boosters/shots every year?


I'll add the lifelong covid boosters/shots to the list of shots I won't be getting.

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Yes, you get a yearly flu shot. It's a bit different as it's more aimed at what flu strains are likely to be here based on what's happened during the flu season in Asia, which is earlier.

ORAggieFan said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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It's almost like the "vaccine" is just a flu shot. And the boosters are the same formula.

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You say this as if it's a bad thing. Sure, it would be great if it gave us immunity forever. But, keeping people out of the hospital and from dying is great.

I'd guess that at some point it's actually a part of the flu shot and just given annually.

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This is already being worked on and been announced. Moderna? I can't recall which pharma company.

Anyway, I called this 18 months ago and I was right as I knew I would be.

Welcome to VaaS.

Many people react to the flu vaccine. This is why you'll hear people say "the vaccine gave me the flu." No, it did not. Their body built an immune response that mimicked flu symptoms, chills, aches, sometimes a fever. It's much milder and shorter than the flu, though.

The Shingles vaccine is also known to create uncomfortable side effects. Most people I know who get a shingles vaccine schedule it for a Friday so that they have the weekend to recover.

Many children experience fevers, headaches, etc. from childhood vaccines.

This is not unusual.

MouthBQ98 said:

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This isn't the type of virus where that will work. Far too easy to spread, and too easy to have with little to no symptoms, and immune resistance from vaccines or previous infection probably doesn't last long enough.

It really is much like the common cold viruses regarding how easily it spreads and how persistent it is in the population, but it unfortunately can be much more deadly to some individuals

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I disagree with your premise but not your conclusion. Measles is significantly more contagious than COVID but we have nearly eliminated it with vaccine. The problem with COVID is the mutation rate and lack of durable efficacy from vaccine.

I still have titers from my childhood measles series completed in 1976. Now that is a good vaccine!

Yes we are seeing Delta waves in areas that did not see them in August. Expected and normal. Are hospitals overwhelmed? Is the death rate sky high?

Cases are not really important but continue to be shouted from the hill top to keep people clicking.

KidDoc said:

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Yes we are seeing Delta waves in areas that did not see them in August. Expected and normal. Are hospitals overwhelmed? Is the death rate sky high?

Cases are not really important but continue to be shouted from the hill top to keep people clicking.

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I have to disagree about "cases are not really important". Abrupt changes in regional case numbers is our first signal of an incoming wave. It allows local health departments to get the message out about taking extra precautions due to increases in cases. It tells hospitals to prepare to increase staffing levels. From a public health perspective, recognizing a surge in case numbers early is extremely important. Hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators, and if focusing just on them, you will be too late to affect change on a population level.

Good point from a local mobilization perspective.