Mask RCT demonstrates positive findings

10,602 Views | 97 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by jnathan10
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf

Above is a currently unpublished study which was performed in Bangladesh by researchers out of Yale, Stanford, and Cal which demonstrated the following methods and results:

Quote:

Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomized trial of community-level mask promotion in rural Bangladesh from November 2020 to April 2021 (N=600 villages, N=342,126 adults). We cross-randomized mask promotion strategies at the village and household level, including cloth vs. surgical masks. All intervention arms received free masks, information on the importance of masking, role modeling by community leaders, and in-person reminders for 8 weeks. The control group did not receive any interventions. Neither participants nor field staff were blinded to intervention assignment. Outcomes included symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (primary) and prevalence of proper mask-wearing, physical distancing, and symptoms consistent with COVID-19 (secondary). Mask-wearing and physical distancing were assessed through direct observation at least weekly at mosques, markets, the main entrance roads to villages, and tea stalls. At 5 and 9 weeks follow-up, we surveyed all reachable participants about COVID-related symptoms. Blood samples collected at 10-12 weeks of follow-up for symptomatic individuals were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies

Quote:

Results: There were 178,288 individuals in the intervention group and 163,838 individuals in the control group. The intervention increased proper mask-wearing from 13.3% in control villages (N=806,547 observations) to 42.3% in treatment villages (N=797,715 observations) (adjusted percentage point difference = 0.29 [0.27, 0.31]). This tripling of mask usage was sustained during the intervention period and two weeks after. Physical distancing increased from 24.1% in control villages to 29.2% in treatment villages (adjusted percentage point difference = 0.05 [0.04, 0.06]). After 5 months, the impact of the intervention faded, but mask-wearing remained 10 percentage points higher in the intervention group. The proportion of individuals with COVID-like symptoms was 7.62% (N=13,273) in the intervention arm and 8.62% (N=13,893) in the control arm. Blood samples were collected from N=10,952 consenting, symptomatic individuals. Adjusting for baseline covariates, the intervention reduced symptomatic seroprevalence by 9.3% (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 0.91 [0.82, 1.00]; control prevalence 0.76%; treatment prevalence 0.68%). In villages randomized to surgical masks (n = 200), the relative reduction was 11.2% overall (aPR = 0.89 [0.78, 1.00]) and 34.7% among individuals 60+ (aPR = 0.65 [0.46, 0.85]). No adverse events were reported.

This is a pre-print, and the study has not gone through peer-review; however, this looks to have been an impressive undertaking. Obviously we cannot infer definitively on mask efficacy, as the individuals were also coached on proper social distancing, but this looks to be the RCT that many mask detractors were looking for. The decrease in symptomatic COVID cases were small, but statistically significant. I doubt this changes any hardcore mask detractors minds, but it is interesting food for thought.
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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Also important to note that surgical masks obviously performed better than cloth masks, although cloth masks did show a statistically significant difference in developing symptomatic COVID, as well.
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Knucklesammich
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I was reading this, also saw they were going to create a git repot for their data. Being on the tech side of things that's common, was wondering if that was common from a medical research perspective?
cisgenderedAggie
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Confidence intervals still include 1. I think you're right that physical distancing change, which no one disputes helps, confounds the interpretation of such a small change.
FratboyLegend
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That study did not test the efficacy of masks. It tested the efficacy of mask promotion strategies.
#CertifiedSIP
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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FratboyLegend said:

That study did not test the efficacy of masks. It tested the efficacy of mask promotion strategies.
Well yes, because a researcher can't sit by someone for months and force them to never take off their mask.
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ec2004
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AG
This seems to confirm what I've assumed - that masks help at the margins.

When you multiply this across an enormous population that can make a real difference. But there are enough exceptions to the rule that no one will be fact-checked out of their pre-existing belief.
BCG Disciple
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AG
Seems like a lot of data to mine. I'm not sure of the conclusions being pushed in the OP, but will do more of a deep dive.
GAC06
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AG
Seems dumb to include distancing with the mask group. Of course the definition of distancing matters but we already know that staying away from people works.
beerad12man
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AG
I personally don't think this confirms anything, except that masking the young and healthy continues to look more and more silly

The fact that it concludes an age group mattered when it came to how much it helped shows you it's likely about another variable far more so than the mask.
Teslag
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AG
We have a safe effective vaccine. We no longer need to worry about others, or even ourselves, staying safe.
cone
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AG
the problem with masks is that they are so weak compared to vaccination in terms of mitigation as to be effectively a fetish

so yeah when you don't have a vaccine things like horse paste and masking children seem legit because what's the alternative
AggieUSMC
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AG
The question is not whether masks work. It's whether mask MANDATES work. They don't.

If one properly wears their mask by changing it regularly, does not touch it, and keeps it snugly around mouth and nose at all times, yes, they work. But the expectation that a significant number of people will do that is not realistic.
ORAggieFan
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This is garbage. It confirms cloth masks don't work. It suggests surgical masks may work but doesn't account for a change in behavior and even so still has the margin of error being 0% effective for surgical masks. If anything, it proves the ineffectiveness, especially if the masks being mandated and commonly worn.
coolerguy12
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AG
cone said:

the problem with masks is that they are so weak compared to vaccination in terms of mitigation as to be effectively a fetish

so yeah when you don't have a vaccine things like horse paste and masking children seem legit because what's the alternative


I'll take door number 3, being healthy and staying active.
ORAggieFan
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cone said:

the problem with masks is that they are so weak compared to vaccination in terms of mitigation as to be effectively a fetish

so yeah when you don't have a vaccine things like horse paste and masking children seem legit because what's the alternative

The director of the CDC told us a mask was more effective than a vaccine would be.
Yesterday
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AG
Thanks for the link OP. I'm very anti masks but like to look at data and numbers. My question is, why can't we use a lab to figure out if a mask works or not? I'm speaking ignorantly here but can't we simply take a mask and spray aerosol particles through it to see if it stops them? That seems to be the easiest way to look at it.

There are so many variable with masks and their ability to stop the spread that nothing can be determined in absolutes. But we can simply see if they stop the same size particles that are blown from our mouths and noses. I would think.
bigtruckguy3500
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Yesterday said:

Thanks for the link OP. I'm very anti masks but like to look at data and numbers. My question is, why can't we use a lab to figure out if a mask works or not? I'm speaking ignorantly here but can't we simply take a mask and spray aerosol particles through it to see if it stops them? That seems to be the easiest way to look at it.

There are so many variable with masks and their ability to stop the spread that nothing can be determined in absolutes. But we can simply see if they stop the same size particles that are blown from our mouths and noses. I would think.
Like this?

shiftyandquick
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Yesterday said:

Thanks for the link OP. I'm very anti masks but like to look at data and numbers. My question is, why can't we use a lab to figure out if a mask works or not? I'm speaking ignorantly here but can't we simply take a mask and spray aerosol particles through it to see if it stops them? That seems to be the easiest way to look at it.

There are so many variable with masks and their ability to stop the spread that nothing can be determined in absolutes. But we can simply see if they stop the same size particles that are blown from our mouths and noses. I would think.
It's not a yes/no question. It's whether they move the needle or not. If it's only a 5% benefit (compared to the original 95% benefit of the vaccine), that's still something significant. That could be tens of thousands of lives saved in the US.

For example, if you did a test of 20 pairs of persons. In each pair one has covid and the other does not. And all were masked. And 19 of the uninfected became infected. Versus a control group with no masks and 20 out of 20 were infected. But you did this in much larger numbers to get statistical significance. You could do something like that. But I'm not sure an IRB would approve that given the existence of vaccines that work. It would arguably be unethical.
BCG Disciple
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AG
Yesterday said:

Thanks for the link OP. I'm very anti masks but like to look at data and numbers. My question is, why can't we use a lab to figure out if a mask works or not? I'm speaking ignorantly here but can't we simply take a mask and spray aerosol particles through it to see if it stops them? That seems to be the easiest way to look at it.

There are so many variable with masks and their ability to stop the spread that nothing can be determined in absolutes. But we can simply see if they stop the same size particles that are blown from our mouths and noses. I would think.

There have been several laboratory studies looking at masks. The latest out of Canada claims masks only filter 10%.

https://www.geo.tv/latest/366480-cloth-surgical-masks-only-10-effective-against-covid-19-study

That being said, there is a big difference in laboratory experiments and real world observations. To date there have been no legitimate RCT studies showing masks work. There have been 3 that have shown they don't. OPs is the first to my knowledge that actually supports masks.
ORAggieFan
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More like this one which aligns mostly with the OP. They may make a small difference, but an N95 with a 3mm gap (who doesn't have multiple 3mm gaps in their cloth mask) has 3% efficacy.
Yesterday
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AG
shiftyandquick said:

Yesterday said:

Thanks for the link OP. I'm very anti masks but like to look at data and numbers. My question is, why can't we use a lab to figure out if a mask works or not? I'm speaking ignorantly here but can't we simply take a mask and spray aerosol particles through it to see if it stops them? That seems to be the easiest way to look at it.

There are so many variable with masks and their ability to stop the spread that nothing can be determined in absolutes. But we can simply see if they stop the same size particles that are blown from our mouths and noses. I would think.
It's not a yes/no question. It's whether they move the needle or not. If it's only a 5% benefit (compared to the original 95% benefit of the vaccine), that's still something significant. That could be tens of thousands of lives saved in the US.

For example, if you did a test of 20 pairs of persons. In each pair one has covid and the other does not. And all were masked. And 19 of the uninfected became infected. Versus a control group with no masks and 20 out of 20 were infected. But you did this in much larger numbers to get statistical significance. You could do something like that. But I'm not sure an IRB would approve that given the existence of vaccines that work. It would arguably be unethical.


In a vacuum it's significant but you're changing how 350 million people operate. You're reducing immunity of other contagious diseases in children like CSV. How many lives would be saved if we mandates helmets while driving? I believe masks have saved lives. I do not believe it was worth it.
ORAggieFan
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BCG Disciple said:

Yesterday said:

Thanks for the link OP. I'm very anti masks but like to look at data and numbers. My question is, why can't we use a lab to figure out if a mask works or not? I'm speaking ignorantly here but can't we simply take a mask and spray aerosol particles through it to see if it stops them? That seems to be the easiest way to look at it.

There are so many variable with masks and their ability to stop the spread that nothing can be determined in absolutes. But we can simply see if they stop the same size particles that are blown from our mouths and noses. I would think.

There have been several laboratory studies looking at masks. The latest out of Canada claims masks only filter 10%.

https://www.geo.tv/latest/366480-cloth-surgical-masks-only-10-effective-against-covid-19-study

That being said, there is a big difference in laboratory experiments and real world observations. To date there have been no legitimate RCT studies showing masks work. There have been 3 that have shown they don't. OPs is the first to my knowledge that actually supports masks.
Ha, we posted the same time the same study. But, as you mentioned, 10% in a lab (and 3% with N95 and a gap) means WAY less in real life. These were perfectly fitted, clean, not touched, etc.
jenn96
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AG
This study was also pre-Delta. So assume even less efficiency since Delta is a lot more transmissible.
Gordo14
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I don't think masking makes sense now with a good vaccine given that this virus will be endemic, but this goes back to the point that if you can reduce cases by 5%-10% with masks (which I think this study confirms is likely - particularly for surgical masks) and distancing then it can make a huge difference on a large scale the same way that compound interest does. It's entirely possible that this pandemic would have been far worse if many or most people did not make some small sacrifices for their neighbor. I think this study does a good job confirming the value of both social distancing and mask wearing when we didn't have an alternative and better option were important measures to mitigating the impact of this pandemic. But now people need to learn to live with COVID because it very likely will never go away. Living with COVID really cannot be masking and social distance for eternity.
Gordo14
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jenn96 said:

This study was also pre-Delta. So assume even less efficiency since Delta is a lot more transmissible.


It could actually make masks higher efficacy for what it's worth.
Bruce Almighty
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AG
Masking policies are only as good as the people following them. Last spring, when people were taking this **** seriously, masking worked. People were also making a real effort to distance themselves, to constantly wash their hands, use hand sanitizer everywhere they went and stay home. Then Covid fatigue hit and even when people were wearing masks, it was done half assed. I just don't see the point in masking policies anymore when people are no longer doing the other things we were doing a year and a half ago. Masking alone doesn't work.
Yesterday
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AG
Bruce Almighty said:

Masking policies are only as good as the people following them. Last spring, when people were taking this **** seriously, masking worked. People were also making a real effort to distance themselves, to constantly wash their hands, use hand sanitizer everywhere they went and stay home. Then Covid fatigue hit and even when people were wearing masks, it was done half assed. I just don't see the point in masking policies anymore when people are no longer doing the other things we were doing a year and a half ago. Masking alone doesn't work.


Where can we see that masking clearly worked? Here to learn. Not fighting with you.
ORAggieFan
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Bruce Almighty said:

Masking policies are only as good as the people following them. Last spring, when people were taking this **** seriously, masking worked. People were also making a real effort to distance themselves, to constantly wash their hands, use hand sanitizer everywhere they went and stay home. Then Covid fatigue hit and even when people were wearing masks, it was done half assed. I just don't see the point in masking policies anymore when people are no longer doing the other things we were doing a year and a half ago. Masking alone doesn't work.
Where did masks work? Have you been to CA and other insanely high masked states?
cone
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AG
the utility of masking is the visual reinforcement that the pandemic isn't over

it's a tool of communication not an actual layer of substantive protection
GAC06
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AG
Except we know distancing works. They mixed it with the thing they were supposedly trying to test.
Ag_Wolverine
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AG
Another note, the "intervention" group only had mask promoting strategies, not actually required to wear masks. A WaPo excerpt:
Quote:

The researchers estimate that among a group of Bangladeshi adults in the study that were encouraged to wear masks, mask-wearing increased by 28.8 percent after the intervention. When tracked, this group saw a 9.3 percent reduction in symptomatic covid-19 seroprevalence, meaning the virus was confirmed by bloodwork, as well as a further 11.9 percent reduction in covid-19 symptoms.

The study's authors led by principal investigators Abaluck, Laura Kwong, Steve Luby, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak and Ashley Styczynski a globe-spanning team that includes researchers from Yale, Stanford and the Bangladeshi nonprofit GreenVoice, emphasized that this did not mean masks were only 9.3 percent effective.

"I think a big error would be to read this study and to say, 'Oh, masks can only prevent 10 percent of symptomatic infections,' " Abaluck said. The number would probably be several times higher if masking were universal, he said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/01/masks-study-covid-bangladesh/
Bruce Almighty
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AG
ORAggieFan said:

Bruce Almighty said:

Masking policies are only as good as the people following them. Last spring, when people were taking this **** seriously, masking worked. People were also making a real effort to distance themselves, to constantly wash their hands, use hand sanitizer everywhere they went and stay home. Then Covid fatigue hit and even when people were wearing masks, it was done half assed. I just don't see the point in masking policies anymore when people are no longer doing the other things we were doing a year and a half ago. Masking alone doesn't work.
Where did masks work? Have you been to CA and other insanely high masked states?


Read my last sentence.
ORAggieFan
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Bruce Almighty said:

ORAggieFan said:

Bruce Almighty said:

Masking policies are only as good as the people following them. Last spring, when people were taking this **** seriously, masking worked. People were also making a real effort to distance themselves, to constantly wash their hands, use hand sanitizer everywhere they went and stay home. Then Covid fatigue hit and even when people were wearing masks, it was done half assed. I just don't see the point in masking policies anymore when people are no longer doing the other things we were doing a year and a half ago. Masking alone doesn't work.
Where did masks work? Have you been to CA and other insanely high masked states?


Read my last sentence.
It doesn't change my question.
DCAggie13y
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AG
Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag said:

https://www.poverty-action.org/sites/default/files/publications/Mask_RCT____Symptomatic_Seropositivity_083121.pdf

Above is a currently unpublished study which was performed in Bangladesh by researchers out of Yale, Stanford, and Cal which demonstrated the following methods and results:

Quote:

Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomized trial of community-level mask promotion in rural Bangladesh from November 2020 to April 2021 (N=600 villages, N=342,126 adults). We cross-randomized mask promotion strategies at the village and household level, including cloth vs. surgical masks. All intervention arms received free masks, information on the importance of masking, role modeling by community leaders, and in-person reminders for 8 weeks. The control group did not receive any interventions. Neither participants nor field staff were blinded to intervention assignment. Outcomes included symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (primary) and prevalence of proper mask-wearing, physical distancing, and symptoms consistent with COVID-19 (secondary). Mask-wearing and physical distancing were assessed through direct observation at least weekly at mosques, markets, the main entrance roads to villages, and tea stalls. At 5 and 9 weeks follow-up, we surveyed all reachable participants about COVID-related symptoms. Blood samples collected at 10-12 weeks of follow-up for symptomatic individuals were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies

Quote:

Results: There were 178,288 individuals in the intervention group and 163,838 individuals in the control group. The intervention increased proper mask-wearing from 13.3% in control villages (N=806,547 observations) to 42.3% in treatment villages (N=797,715 observations) (adjusted percentage point difference = 0.29 [0.27, 0.31]). This tripling of mask usage was sustained during the intervention period and two weeks after. Physical distancing increased from 24.1% in control villages to 29.2% in treatment villages (adjusted percentage point difference = 0.05 [0.04, 0.06]). After 5 months, the impact of the intervention faded, but mask-wearing remained 10 percentage points higher in the intervention group. The proportion of individuals with COVID-like symptoms was 7.62% (N=13,273) in the intervention arm and 8.62% (N=13,893) in the control arm. Blood samples were collected from N=10,952 consenting, symptomatic individuals. Adjusting for baseline covariates, the intervention reduced symptomatic seroprevalence by 9.3% (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 0.91 [0.82, 1.00]; control prevalence 0.76%; treatment prevalence 0.68%). In villages randomized to surgical masks (n = 200), the relative reduction was 11.2% overall (aPR = 0.89 [0.78, 1.00]) and 34.7% among individuals 60+ (aPR = 0.65 [0.46, 0.85]). No adverse events were reported.

This is a pre-print, and the study has not gone through peer-review; however, this looks to have been an impressive undertaking. Obviously we cannot infer definitively on mask efficacy, as the individuals were also coached on proper social distancing, but this looks to be the RCT that many mask detractors were looking for. The decrease in symptomatic COVID cases were small, but statistically significant. I doubt this changes any hardcore mask detractors minds, but it is interesting food for thought.


Does a reduction in covid prevalence from 0.76% to 0.68% seem significant to you? I know they converted it to percentage terms to make it seem larger but in absolute terms that seems almost meaningless and possibly completely explained by other factors like distancing.

I actually find that result hugely disappointing and proof that the masks don't do much of anything. Such a tiny difference between the treatment and control groups. With delta I'm sure it would have been even smaller.

Seems like a good vaccine and new treatments are our only hope.
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