Ranger222 said:
Also someone mentioned the UF study....
Why don't we hear from the CEO of UF Health himself to hear how things are going? Video is from yesterday.
Cyp0111 said:
I'm not sure but Ill defer to you since you have it all figured out...
The vaccine seems to be very effective at "stopping" serious illness requiring hospitalization. The issue with this wave is hospitals (or some, or a few, or whatever I need to qualify this with to make everyone happy) are being stretched to capacity, or over, again. There is a downstream effect to those who would need a hospital for other, non-COVID reasons now may not be able to get in. Or staff is burnt out and mistakes get made. Or staff is burnt out and quit, exacerbating the already present staffing issues.planoaggie123 said:
Is there scientific evidence that the vaccines stop transmission? Do we know that for sure or are we basing it on how many vaccinated people test positive and assume everyone else is not getting COVID?
I guess it seems like the vaccine does not stop transmission or getting "re-infected" and therefore COVID-19 will always have "hosts" but maybe I am completely off on this...
How are they "not close"? If 35-40% have had it, and 50% are vaccinated, that's 67.5 to 70% immunity. Which is what I said. I really hope we can get to about 60% vaccination by the winter wave. That could give us approaching 80% overall immunity levels, and even higher in the higher risk to be hospitalized crowd.Ranger222 said:beerad12man said:
Vaccination now unfortunately won't help this current wave. By the time it takes affect, it will be over.
It might help the future fall/winter wave, though. So it's still a good idea for more to get vaccinated, and I hope they do. Fortunately, I think this one is about peaked, will plummet soon, and be the last big hurrah. I'm still pretty shocked with over 50% vaccinated and likely 35-40% with some layer of natural immunity we are still having these issues. Surprises me, as mathematically I would think that would put us over 70% immunity(at least some degree, enough to prevent hospitalizations). But we may very well need about 85-90% to prevent any future hospital crowding.
Hopefully we can get to about 60+% vaccinated in Texas, along with 50+% naturally immune, which would put us over 80% by the winter wave.
Unfortunately those numbers aren't close to the real situation. Let's do some quick math.
The population of the US is 328 million.
Currently we are looking at 205 million Americans with some level of immunity (168 million vaccinated + 37 m COVID cases). That only equals 205 million Americans, or 62.5% of the US population.
That leaves 120 million Americans with no level of immunity. That's greater than the entire US population in 1918, which sustained a pandemic.
The idea that the virus is quickly running out of hosts to continue this is just unfortunately not true. We will continue to see waves and surges into the fall and winter until a larger percentage of the US population is vaccinated. It's not going away until we put in greater effort to end it.
You asked about vaccines and if there is scientific evidence that vaccines stop transmission. I said nothing about masks, not sure where this response comes from but I'll bite against my better judgement.planoaggie123 said:
So how long on masks?
Till the hospitals / Judge Clay tell us? What is the metric?
As soon as we hit that mark...if we all wear masks....can we go to a national push to shame people who are fat or smoke? That way when we get full in hospitals we can blame those people and not require masks covering the face of perfectly healthy people?
beerad12man said:
Either way, I don't know where you get your math? If you have 50% fully vaccinated, and 40% has had it. The logical conclusion would be to say 70% have a level of immunity. And I've never said it's
quickly running out of hosts. However, I do absolutely think the subsequent waves moving forward will be lower than this one in terms of hospitalizations.
No idea where you get 15%. Even the CDC would say that's way off. So where are your 'facts'? How come you are the only person who knows this? Many, many prominent people would guess much closer to 40% than 15.Ranger222 said:beerad12man said:
Either way, I don't know where you get your math? If you have 50% fully vaccinated, and 40% has had it. The logical conclusion would be to say 70% have a level of immunity. And I've never said it's
quickly running out of hosts. However, I do absolutely think the subsequent waves moving forward will be lower than this one in terms of hospitalizations.
You are suggesting from your "numbers" pulled directly out of the air that "40% has had it". I'm telling you that is incredibly wrong. The number is closer to 15% (reported is 10% but I'm even bumping up that number). That comes from actual data and facts. There is a huge difference in 63% immunity protection compared to the 70-80% you are imagining -- and it comes to timescale. We've been at this for 18 months. If vaccination rate has slowed, how much longer are we going to have to wait for the virus to run through the remaining population to actually get to the 70-80% number? Another 18 months? Certainly not just a couple more months like many are hoping. We are only at 63% now. No one wants to do this for 18 more months, but that is the real situation we are staring down. Or, we can get two shots and end this in less than two months. We seem to want to take the longer approach.
According to Texas Medical Center in Houston, 43% of their ICU beds are held with COVID patients I think that is as of Tuesday. It was 30% on Monday last week.Aggie95 said:you realize the hospitals are full due to more reasons than COVID right?Aston94 said:ORAggieFan said:Aggie95 said:
There was a University of Florida study that predicted the peak of this spike would be 8/18...hopefully pretty accurate.
That's likely going to be accurate for the southern part of the US. SoCal and across. November will have an uptick. Northern states will lag here but then be worse in fall. The only thing that ends this is stop testing.
Sorry, I am not on either side of the great Covid debate, but this is ridiculous. Full hospitals say there is more to this than testing.
we have thousands fewer beds than this time last year (severe staff shortages)
RSV is running rampant
Flu is coming back
about 18% of ICU beds are covid
beerad12man said:
Masking is a futile effort, with a mixed bag of results worldwide to show they make no significant difference. Still don't know why we are discussing them with the real world data we have. They are divisive, unnatural, and a net negative on society.
Vaccination and natural immunity are the only things that matter. Adding these together to get a population immunity strong enough to prevent major surges. However we get there, I don't care.
Ranger-Ranger222 said:beerad12man said:
Vaccination now unfortunately won't help this current wave. By the time it takes affect, it will be over.
It might help the future fall/winter wave, though. So it's still a good idea for more to get vaccinated, and I hope they do. Fortunately, I think this one is about peaked, will plummet soon, and be the last big hurrah. I'm still pretty shocked with over 50% vaccinated and likely 35-40% with some layer of natural immunity we are still having these issues. Surprises me, as mathematically I would think that would put us over 70% immunity(at least some degree, enough to prevent hospitalizations). But we may very well need about 85-90% to prevent any future hospital crowding.
Hopefully we can get to about 60+% vaccinated in Texas, along with 50+% naturally immune, which would put us over 80% by the winter wave.
Unfortunately those numbers aren't close to the real situation. Let's do some quick math.
The population of the US is 328 million.
Currently we are looking at 205 million Americans with some level of immunity (168 million vaccinated + 37 m COVID cases). That only equals 205 million Americans, or 62.5% of the US population.
That leaves 120 million Americans with no level of immunity. That's greater than the entire US population in 1918, which sustained a pandemic.
The idea that the virus is quickly running out of hosts to continue this is just unfortunately not true. We will continue to see waves and surges into the fall and winter until a larger percentage of the US population is vaccinated. It's not going away until we put in greater effort to end it.
What are the demographics of most patients you are seeing right now?Marcus Aurelius said:
It's a hot mess here. We are at 96 covid inpts. 2 entire floors full of covid (one floor is a 48 bed ICU). Disheartening and maddening from my perspective to see it like this now. ER is jammed with people waiting for beds. Only one 24 bed ICU left to take the non covid ICU pts and it is full.
Will be praying for you and all ER nurses and docs over the next couple weeks.Marcus Aurelius said:
It's a hot mess here. We are at 96 covid inpts. 2 entire floors full of covid (one floor is a 48 bed ICU). Disheartening and maddening from my perspective to see it like this now. ER is jammed with people waiting for beds. Only one 24 bed ICU left to take the non covid ICU pts and it is full.
Still mostly unvaccinated?Marcus Aurelius said:
It's a hot mess here. We are at 96 covid inpts. 2 entire floors full of covid (one floor is a 48 bed ICU). Disheartening and maddening from my perspective to see it like this now. ER is jammed with people waiting for beds. Only one 24 bed ICU left to take the non covid ICU pts and it is full.
JesusQuintana said:
Seems that it would only get worse in the short term with kids back in school and bringing the virus home to parents...
Yes. This is just the peak, so the worst of it. The next few weeks should be a good trend.Captain Pablo said:
Sooooooo
Not light at the end of the tunnel?
This just really hasn't been the case anywhere. It's more seasonal waves that affect the majority of spread than timing of schools. Not saying it can't happen here and there, just saying in terms of mass spread, schools haven't been the reason for hospitalizations filling up.JesusQuintana said:
Seems that it would only get worse in the short term with kids back in school and bringing the virus home to parents...
beerad12man said:Yes. This is just the peak, so the worst of it. The next few weeks should be a good trend.Captain Pablo said:
Sooooooo
Not light at the end of the tunnel?
Charpie said:
I know that was true before. Is that the case with Delta?
