How Does Covid End?

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Goodbull_19
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9:13a, 6/27/21
AG
I know Covid is "over" in terms of how most people, including myself are living (I.e. no social distancing, masks, etc)

But what is the current thought as to how covid is going to truly go away worldwide? Does it just fade away after a couple of years? Natural immunity + vaccines and eventually its just loses its virulence?

Or is it going to be around for years and years with periodic cases and outbreaks, etc without ever becoming less virulent?
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Bucketrunner
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9:57a, 6/27/21
I think those who unleashed this disease probably have another waiting in the wings when Covid is controlled
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Old Buffalo
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10:46a, 6/27/21
AG
When it no longer becomes a political advantage.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
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AggieUSMC
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1:06p, 6/27/21
AG
I predict by the end of 2022, the media will no longer be obsessed with COVID and will have moved on the next "existential threat" that will kill us all.

(Climate change, zombies, aliens, shark attacks, white supremacist Muslim terrorists)
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Milwaukees Best Light
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1:17p, 6/27/21
AG
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Gordo14
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1:31p, 6/27/21
Covid will probably be with us forever, or at least many, many years. Pfizer's CEO believes we'll have a global return to normal (taking off the American lense here) by the end of 2022. I think that's a fairly realistic bet. At that point Covid-19 travel testing and restrictions- particularly for international travel - will be out the window. However, until then, I think we'll continue to see those until the relevant country reaches some sort of vaccination/infection threshold. I'm hoping by the end of this year travel to countries outside of Europe like Japan or Australia will return to normal. Everything else will definitely be some time in 2022. The US is effectively normal now despite some significant outbreaks in places with low vaccination rates like Mississippi.

As far as cases go, I fully expect to see cases start rising again in the near future with the delta variant. I think we'll see a bit of a surge regionally in the winter, but everything depends on vaccinations. Regardless it will be a fraction of what we experienced last winter even with the decrease in human interaction we had in 20-21. I doubt we'll have any more restrictions as a society, but I predict more Americans will needlessly die from COVID this coming winter than die from the flu, again. After this winter, we'll have probably a baseline of cases, but the surges will become less and less relevant.
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St Hedwig Aggie
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2:20p, 6/27/21
AG
So no 4th-10th waves?

_______ variant?
Make Mental Asylums Great Again!
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agsalaska
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In reply to Gordo14 • 2:43p, 6/27/21
AG
I generally agree with that. There will be some outbreaks and needless deaths with the unvaccinated but ultimately the vaccinated and the young will win out. In the long run as our youth grow natural immunity to it the virus will burn out.


I also agree that they will release another.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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texan12
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2:43p, 6/27/21
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-using-vaccines-push-its-agenda-latin-america-u-s-n1268146

No reason for it to end. College football and nfl season will be ground zero for COVID reporting also. Look what happened to NC State's world season ending.
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agsalaska
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In reply to texan12 • 2:45p, 6/27/21
AG
texan12 said:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-using-vaccines-push-its-agenda-latin-america-u-s-n1268146

No reason for it to end. College football and nfl season will be ground zero for COVID reporting also. Look what happened to NC State's world season ending.
Meh. I doubt it. What is the % of vaccinated football players? My guess is it is higher than the national average.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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texan12
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3:36p, 6/27/21
It's already a talking point regardless of who is or isn't vaccinated amongst the healthiest of people. Chris Paul was a victim too. I believe in NC State's case contact tracing screwed them. Either way it's completely ridiculous and the unvaccinated players will be the cherry on top for reporters. This thing will linger.
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agsalaska
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In reply to texan12 • 3:38p, 6/27/21
AG
texan12 said:
It's already a talking point regardless of who is or isn't vaccinated amongst the healthiest of people. Chris Paul was a victim too. I believe in NC State's case contact tracing screwed them. Either way it's completely ridiculous and the unvaccinated players will be the cherry on top for reporters. This thing will linger.
Only because so many people refuse to be vaccinated.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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texan12
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In reply to agsalaska • 3:52p, 6/27/21
agsalaska said:
texan12 said:
It's already a talking point regardless of who is or isn't vaccinated amongst the healthiest of people. Chris Paul was a victim too. I believe in NC State's case contact tracing screwed them. Either way it's completely ridiculous and the unvaccinated players will be the cherry on top for reporters. This thing will linger.
Only because so many people refuse to be vaccinated.


Chris Paul said he is vaccinated. Either way, these athletes are healthy and to treat them as if they aren't isn't reasonable.
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agsalaska
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In reply to texan12 • 4:02p, 6/27/21
AG
texan12 said:
agsalaska said:
texan12 said:
It's already a talking point regardless of who is or isn't vaccinated amongst the healthiest of people. Chris Paul was a victim too. I believe in NC State's case contact tracing screwed them. Either way it's completely ridiculous and the unvaccinated players will be the cherry on top for reporters. This thing will linger.
Only because so many people refuse to be vaccinated.


Chris Paul said he is vaccinated. Either way, these athletes are healthy and to treat them as if they aren't isn't reasonable.
To clarify, I was not specifically referring to Chris Paul or the NC State baseball team. I don't even know what happened to Chris Paul.

My point was to the OP. And is it true. The longer it takes to get people vaccinated the longer it will linger and be a problem.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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texan12
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In reply to agsalaska • 4:26p, 6/27/21
And it's true too that man-made factors can prolong this.
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agsalaska
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In reply to texan12 • 4:27p, 6/27/21
AG
texan12 said:
And it's true too that man-made factors can prolong this.
Of course. Not getting vaccinated is a man made factor.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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cone
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7:25p, 6/27/21
AG
we'll probably have another lockdown attempt to protect unvaccinated kids this fall/winter

definitely going to get mask mandate reinstitution attempts
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agsalaska
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In reply to cone • 7:27p, 6/27/21
AG
cone said:
we'll probably have another lockdown attempt to protect unvaccinated kids this fall/winter

definitely going to get mask mandate reinstitution attempts
Not a chance. At least not in Texas. It is over in Texas period end of story. No way we allow that to happen again.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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cone
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In reply to agsalaska • 7:40p, 6/27/21
AG
we'll see

they are leaning hard into the delta variant and the unvaccinated kid angle. feels like it's getting real momentum (as opposed to the previous variants)

changing the variant nomenclature to something memorable as opposed to letter/number does seem to build the tension/stakes more
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johnnyblaze36
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In reply to cone • 7:58p, 6/27/21
AG
cone said:
we'll see

they are leaning hard into the delta variant and the unvaccinated kid angle. feels like it's getting real momentum (as opposed to the previous variants)

changing the variant nomenclature to something memorable as opposed to letter/number does seem to build the tension/stakes more
This is absolutely insane.
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cone
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In reply to johnnyblaze36 • 8:19p, 6/27/21
AG
I agree

doesn't mean it won't happen
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Bonfire1996
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8:34p, 6/27/21
AG
Depends on two factors, neither of which have to do with health or science:

1. Who wins control of Congress in 2022
2. How powerful Ron DeSantis becomes over the next 18 months.
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samurai_science
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In reply to agsalaska • 8:40p, 6/27/21
agsalaska said:
texan12 said:
It's already a talking point regardless of who is or isn't vaccinated amongst the healthiest of people. Chris Paul was a victim too. I believe in NC State's case contact tracing screwed them. Either way it's completely ridiculous and the unvaccinated players will be the cherry on top for reporters. This thing will linger.
Only because so many people refuse to be vaccinated.
Delta variant is killing the vaccinated at higher rate


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/996740/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

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Bucketrunner
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8:42p, 6/27/21
There would be a complete revolt by the sane part of the population.
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agsalaska
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In reply to samurai_science • 9:05p, 6/27/21
AG
samurai_texan said:
agsalaska said:
texan12 said:
It's already a talking point regardless of who is or isn't vaccinated amongst the healthiest of people. Chris Paul was a victim too. I believe in NC State's case contact tracing screwed them. Either way it's completely ridiculous and the unvaccinated players will be the cherry on top for reporters. This thing will linger.
Only because so many people refuse to be vaccinated.
Delta variant is killing the vaccinated at higher rate


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/996740/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

If I am reading that right, out of 92,000 cases, only 7,000 of them were people who had been vaccinated. What is the vaccination population % of the UK?

Am I reading that right?
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Old Buffalo
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In reply to samurai_science • 9:59p, 6/27/21
AG
samurai_texan said:
agsalaska said:
texan12 said:
It's already a talking point regardless of who is or isn't vaccinated amongst the healthiest of people. Chris Paul was a victim too. I believe in NC State's case contact tracing screwed them. Either way it's completely ridiculous and the unvaccinated players will be the cherry on top for reporters. This thing will linger.
Only because so many people refuse to be vaccinated.
Delta variant is killing the vaccinated at higher rate


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/996740/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf



CFR <50 - 0.00978%
CFR >50 - 1.13886%


That's CASE fatality rate.

Try again.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to cone • 7:58a, 6/28/21
AG
cone said:
we'll see

they are leaning hard into the delta variant and the unvaccinated kid angle. feels like it's getting real momentum (as opposed to the previous variants)

changing the variant nomenclature to something memorable as opposed to letter/number does seem to build the tension/stakes more


"India variant" wasn't memorable?
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cone
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 8:25a, 6/28/21
AG
not really
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cone
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8:27a, 6/28/21
AG
does anyone really think we're going to go into cold and flu season this year (after the trauma of last year's winter) completely back to normal?

i find that highly unlikely. call it once bit twice shy, call it paranoia, whatever.
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Aston94
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In reply to cone • 11:11a, 6/28/21
AG
cone said:
does anyone really think we're going to go into cold and flu season this year (after the trauma of last year's winter) completely back to normal?

i find that highly unlikely. call it once bit twice shy, call it paranoia, whatever.
At some point you start running out of people who can be sick. You get close to 70% vaccination and now over 10% of population that have had Covid, It starts getting more and more difficult for the virus to spread, no matter the variant.

Look at UK's current numbers, cases have been increasing now over a month, but death total is still really low and not rising. Tells you that the current population getting the virus is likely youth, as they are the one group who is not getting vaccinated as of yet.

So you have a variant that spreads easier but is spreading through children who are not at high risk.
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Teslag
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In reply to cone • 11:25a, 6/28/21
AG
cone said:
does anyone really think we're going to go into cold and flu season this year (after the trauma of last year's winter) completely back to normal?

i find that highly unlikely. call it once bit twice shy, call it paranoia, whatever.


Considering most of Texas was "normal" during peak covid then yes I absolutely believe that.

Masks and lockdowns in red states are done and not coming back.
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traxter
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In reply to Teslag • 3:06p, 6/28/21
Salute The Marines said:
cone said:
does anyone really think we're going to go into cold and flu season this year (after the trauma of last year's winter) completely back to normal?

i find that highly unlikely. call it once bit twice shy, call it paranoia, whatever.


Considering most of Texas was "normal" during peak covid then yes I absolutely believe that.

Masks and lockdowns in red states are done and not coming back.
If masks and lockdowns were to come back in red states, I would say we're all screwed, because that means poop has definitely hit the fan with a new variant or something that's cutting through the vaccination and immunity from prior infections with just as much or more hospitalization.
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TexasAggie008
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In reply to traxter • 3:44p, 6/28/21
AG
Even if a new variant has a 75% death rate- masks and lockdowns would have no justification in coming back
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cone
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7:21a, 6/29/21
AG
https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccinated-people-account-for-half-of-new-covid-19-delta-cases-in-israeli-outbreak-11624624326?mod=e2tw


Quote:
TEL AVIVAbout half of adults infected in an outbreak of the Delta variant of Covid-19 in Israel were fully inoculated with the Pfizer Inc. vaccine, prompting the government to reimpose an indoor mask requirement and other measures to contain the highly transmissible strain.
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hamean02
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In reply to traxter • 8:00a, 6/29/21
AG
traxter said:
Salute The Marines said:
cone said:
does anyone really think we're going to go into cold and flu season this year (after the trauma of last year's winter) completely back to normal?

i find that highly unlikely. call it once bit twice shy, call it paranoia, whatever.


Considering most of Texas was "normal" during peak covid then yes I absolutely believe that.

Masks and lockdowns in red states are done and not coming back.
If masks and lockdowns were to come back in red states, I would say we're all screwed, because that means poop has definitely hit the fan with a new variant or something that's cutting through the vaccination and immunity from prior infections with just as much or more hospitalization.
Red starts are more likely to have lower vaccination rates. So that could play a factor. I live in South Carolina and our statewide vaccination % is so low that we're almost guaranteed to have a resurgence in the next six months.
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