What is your COVID 19 Mortality Risk?

6,708 Views | 68 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by AJ02
DCAggie13y
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harge57 said:

74OA said:

Now that we know how to treat this virus, morbidity not mortality, is the major concern. Long COVID is real and is affecting millions of people's lives. Get immunized or not, just don't ***** afterwards if you're one of the up to 30% with enduring health issues.

But we also have many millions of people who are immune-compromised, for whom the vaccines do not work or don't work well, so will the rest of us not help as neighbors by getting vaccinated so they don't have to hide the rest of their lives?

Try thinking about someone besides yourself. BTW, the flu never killed 500K+ in a year here.
So have we flattened the curve yet?

Flatten the curve
Myocarditis
Two more weeks
Surface Spread
Variants!
Wear a mask
Asymptomatic spread
Reinfection
Wear a double mask.... no triple!
Ivermectin people are crazy
Variants again!

Now its "Long COVID"

What's next when this is proven no big deal as well?

GIVE IT UP



I understand where you are coming from as I have been staunchly opposed to the lockdowns and mask mandates. However, I do know a very healthy 30 year old who has not regained her sense of smell 4+ months after getting COVID. I also know another 30 something who now gets chronic headaches.

There are some people with enduring symptoms. It's not just a fear tool used by the media.
FratboyLegend
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Hincemm said:

FratboyLegend said:


In fact, if you look at the Diamond Princess, we had rough but actionable data in late Feb / early March of 2020.

you mean, don't put a bunch of olds in a petri dish?!
I understand your statement is in jest, and of course I agree.

But we had far more data than just that. We had infection rate, mortality, and morbidity statistics, by age cohort, for the most critical section of our society. They ended up being very accurate, even considering the small sample size. It was the perfect initial 'experiment', and it was tragic those findings were not used to set proper policy.
#CertifiedSIP
Daddy-O5
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Gumby said:

harge57 said:

74OA said:

Now that we know how to treat this virus, morbidity not mortality, is the major concern. Long COVID is real and is affecting millions of people's lives. Get immunized or not, just don't ***** afterwards if you're one of the up to 30% with enduring health issues.

But we also have many millions of people who are immune-compromised, for whom the vaccines do not work or don't work well, so will the rest of us not help as neighbors by getting vaccinated so they don't have to hide the rest of their lives?

Try thinking about someone besides yourself. BTW, the flu never killed 500K+ in a year here.
So have we flattened the curve yet?

Flatten the curve
Myocarditis
Two more weeks
Surface Spread
Variants!
Wear a mask
Asymptomatic spread
Reinfection
Wear a double mask.... no triple!
Ivermectin people are crazy
Variants again!

Now its "Long COVID"

What's next when this is proven no big deal as well?

GIVE IT UP



I understand where you are coming from as I have been staunchly opposed to the lockdowns and mask mandates. However, I do know a very healthy 30 year old who has not regained her sense of smell 4+ months after getting COVID. I also know another 30 something who now gets chronic headaches.

There are some people with enduring symptoms. It's not just a fear tool used by the media.
"Some people with enduring symptoms" turned "you're not safe until you're vaccinated" is the very tool some are talking about.

I for one have zero doubt "there are some people with enduring symptoms". That doesn't mean it needs to be concerning on a larger scale or the rest of the population needs to make personal decisions based on that anecdotal evidence.
88planoAg
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Gumby said:




I understand where you are coming from as I have been staunchly opposed to the lockdowns and mask mandates. However, I do know a very healthy 30 year old who has not regained her sense of smell 4+ months after getting COVID. I also know another 30 something who now gets chronic headaches.

There are some people with enduring symptoms. It's not just a fear tool used by the media.
I had covid in December. Minimal to mild symptoms. My sense of smell is still jacked. But I don't count myself as a 'long hauler' just because of that. It is annoying, not debilitating. Is that what we are including in the 30%?
74OA
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Gumby said:

harge57 said:

74OA said:

Now that we know how to treat this virus, morbidity not mortality, is the major concern. Long COVID is real and is affecting millions of people's lives. Get immunized or not, just don't ***** afterwards if you're one of the up to 30% with enduring health issues.

But we also have many millions of people who are immune-compromised, for whom the vaccines do not work or don't work well, so will the rest of us not help as neighbors by getting vaccinated so they don't have to hide the rest of their lives?

Try thinking about someone besides yourself. BTW, the flu never killed 500K+ in a year here.
So have we flattened the curve yet?

Flatten the curve
Myocarditis
Two more weeks
Surface Spread
Variants!
Wear a mask
Asymptomatic spread
Reinfection
Wear a double mask.... no triple!
Ivermectin people are crazy
Variants again!

Now its "Long COVID"

What's next when this is proven no big deal as well?

GIVE IT UP



I understand where you are coming from as I have been staunchly opposed to the lockdowns and mask mandates. However, I do know a very healthy 30 year old who has not regained her sense of smell 4+ months after getting COVID. I also know another 30 something who now gets chronic headaches.

There are some people with enduring symptoms. It's not just a fear tool used by the media.
The naysayers don't care. I posted several long-Covid medical study links, but they were just ignored. Some here are only interested in shutting people up and terminating any conversation that doesn't support their point-of-view.
GAC06
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You continue to claim that a third of people infected get long term symptoms and even the links you provided say otherwise. Why are you pushing that?
KlinkerAg11
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We are living with the consequences of using fear the whole time to inform people rather than reason.

It's really the moral of the story of the boy who cried wolf. Cry wolf long enough and no one will take you seriously, even when it's actually a problem.

I think long Covid is actually an issue, but leading with fear has made people not listen.
coolerguy12
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Tell you what. I promise not to complain if I become a "Covid long hauler" so stop shoving your vaccine down my throat with your fear mongering and emotions. I'm able to accept my risks, why can't you?
TarponChaser
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KlinkerAg11 said:

I think long Covid is actually an issue, but leading with fear has made people not listen.

I'm sure it is but there's correlation and then there's causality.

Saying 12.8% of people with these long covid symptoms were not previously diagnosed with some condition which covid seems to have exacerbated is fear mongering. Especially when they don't note the contra 87.2% of people with previously diagnosed issues.

And they are consistently vague with the actual numbers.
KlinkerAg11
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I guess I need to clarify. I don't think it's a huge issue, but it's still an issue. More of an issue than death from Covid at this point.

Once again, it's all about risk management and personal choice, for me I wanted no long term symptoms even if they were minor.

I'm a big pro vaccine guy, but I'm also a personal choice guy. If you want it cool, if not that's cool too.
74OA
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coolerguy12 said:

Tell you what. I promise not to complain if I become a "Covid long hauler" so stop shoving your vaccine down my throat with your fear mongering and emotions. I'm able to accept my risks, why can't you?
I'm not shoving anything down your throat. The OP posted a method for calculating Covid mortality risk (which doesn't make the 500,000+ dead less so) and I responded by pointing out that now that we know how to prevent most virus deaths, the focus should shift from mortality to morbidity, and that we still need to help those with compromised immune systems (like many cancer survivors). If you don't want to discuss it, then don't.
coolerguy12
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Quote:

But we also have many millions of people who are immune-compromised, for whom the vaccines do not work or don't work well, so will the rest of us not help as neighbors by getting vaccinated so they don't have to hide the rest of their lives?

Try thinking about someone besides yourself. BTW, the flu never killed 500K+ in a year here.


4th post in the thread you made an emotional plea to people to get vaccinated, implying those that don't are bad neighbors and selfish, after stating that you don't care if people get the vaccine or not. Then you continued to use fear tactics with bogus stats to scare people into getting vaccinated. I'm just letting you know that most people who haven't gotten it yet get turned off more by the emotional requests and fear mongering that people use, you included.
Squadron7
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Me:
Absolute rate of mortality of 1.0 (95% CI: 0.5 - 1.8 ) per 1000000
0.34 (95% CI: 0.30 - 0.37 )

Not bad for an old.
texag84
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.43 - 59 years old
TarponChaser
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74OA said:

Try thinking about someone besides yourself. BTW, the flu never killed 500K+ in a year here.

It absolutely did in the pre-flu vaccine. Spanish Influenza killed an estimated 50MM worldwide and something like 750K in the USA.
DCAggie13y
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J_Daddy05 said:

Gumby said:

harge57 said:

74OA said:

Now that we know how to treat this virus, morbidity not mortality, is the major concern. Long COVID is real and is affecting millions of people's lives. Get immunized or not, just don't ***** afterwards if you're one of the up to 30% with enduring health issues.

But we also have many millions of people who are immune-compromised, for whom the vaccines do not work or don't work well, so will the rest of us not help as neighbors by getting vaccinated so they don't have to hide the rest of their lives?

Try thinking about someone besides yourself. BTW, the flu never killed 500K+ in a year here.
So have we flattened the curve yet?

Flatten the curve
Myocarditis
Two more weeks
Surface Spread
Variants!
Wear a mask
Asymptomatic spread
Reinfection
Wear a double mask.... no triple!
Ivermectin people are crazy
Variants again!

Now its "Long COVID"

What's next when this is proven no big deal as well?

GIVE IT UP



I understand where you are coming from as I have been staunchly opposed to the lockdowns and mask mandates. However, I do know a very healthy 30 year old who has not regained her sense of smell 4+ months after getting COVID. I also know another 30 something who now gets chronic headaches.

There are some people with enduring symptoms. It's not just a fear tool used by the media.
"Some people with enduring symptoms" turned "you're not safe until you're vaccinated" is the very tool some are talking about.

I for one have zero doubt "there are some people with enduring symptoms". That doesn't mean it needs to be concerning on a larger scale or the rest of the population needs to make personal decisions based on that anecdotal evidence.


Yeah I think we need more information about the probability and severity of the enduring risks.

I once got the flu so bad that I developed bronchitis and a chronic cough that lasted for several months. I had to get a steroid inhaler it was so bad. That would make me a "flu long hauler". I know people who have had pneumonia and felt the effects for almost a full year.

However, we never masked up and mandated vaccines for pneumonia and flu. So I agree that we need more data about the real risks. I don't think the other poster was denying that, he was pointing out that death isn't the only risk factor.
Aggie_Boomin 21
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74OA said:

Gumby said:

harge57 said:

74OA said:

Now that we know how to treat this virus, morbidity not mortality, is the major concern. Long COVID is real and is affecting millions of people's lives. Get immunized or not, just don't ***** afterwards if you're one of the up to 30% with enduring health issues.

But we also have many millions of people who are immune-compromised, for whom the vaccines do not work or don't work well, so will the rest of us not help as neighbors by getting vaccinated so they don't have to hide the rest of their lives?

Try thinking about someone besides yourself. BTW, the flu never killed 500K+ in a year here.
So have we flattened the curve yet?

Flatten the curve
Myocarditis
Two more weeks
Surface Spread
Variants!
Wear a mask
Asymptomatic spread
Reinfection
Wear a double mask.... no triple!
Ivermectin people are crazy
Variants again!

Now its "Long COVID"

What's next when this is proven no big deal as well?

GIVE IT UP



I understand where you are coming from as I have been staunchly opposed to the lockdowns and mask mandates. However, I do know a very healthy 30 year old who has not regained her sense of smell 4+ months after getting COVID. I also know another 30 something who now gets chronic headaches.

There are some people with enduring symptoms. It's not just a fear tool used by the media.
The naysayers don't care. I posted several long-Covid medical study links, but they were just ignored. Some here are only interested in shutting people up and terminating any conversation that doesn't support their point-of-view.

The "naysayers" don't care bc it's all a bunch of horse ***** The long hauler narrative is just the latest on the long list. The 3 studies you linked contradict themselves and give radically different estimates on number of "long-haulers" (2% - 33% !?).
Keep living in fear man, I'm sure one day you'll convince someone that your irrational boogeyman should be respected.
Year of the Germaphobe
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The_Fox said:

74OA said:

Now that we know how to treat this virus, morbidity not mortality, is the major concern. Long COVID is real and is affecting millions of people's lives. Get immunized or not, just don't ***** afterwards if you're one of the up to 30% with enduring health issues.

But we also have many millions of people who are immune-compromised, for whom the vaccines do not work or don't work well, so will the rest of us not help as neighbors by getting vaccinated so they don't have to hide the rest of their lives?

Try thinking about someone besides yourself. BTW, the flu never killed 500K+ in a year here.
No, next question.


Amen to that.
bay fan
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S
74OA said:

coolerguy12 said:

Tell you what. I promise not to complain if I become a "Covid long hauler" so stop shoving your vaccine down my throat with your fear mongering and emotions. I'm able to accept my risks, why can't you?
I'm not shoving anything down your throat. The OP posted a method for calculating Covid mortality risk (which doesn't make the 500,000+ dead less so) and I responded by pointing out that now that we know how to prevent most virus deaths, the focus should shift from mortality to morbidity, and that we still need to help those with compromised immune systems (like many cancer survivors). If you don't want to discuss it, then don't.
You hit the nail on the head earlier. There is zero point in expressing any other point of view other then the Covid is fake, you can't make me vaccinate, masks are useless one on this board anymore as you will be aggressively shouted down. I mostly avoid participating any longer as it's not worth it. But here I am right now and those who refuse to vaccinate for no other reason then they are stubborn and don't want to are simply not community minded. They would rather benefit from those around them who are willing to vaccinate for the good of others but not contribute themselves. They won't like this post but in my opinion, sometimes people need to do things for the greater good, to support those in their community who are at risk and not just be stubbornly self focused because they see no self benefit. We all know who on this board would help a stranger and who would not.

88planoAg
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bay fan said:



You hit the nail on the head earlier. There is zero point in expressing any other point of view other then the Covid is fake, you can't make me vaccinate, masks are useless one on this board anymore as you will be aggressively shouted down. I mostly avoid participating any longer as it's not worth it. But here I am right now and those who refuse to vaccinate for no other reason then they are stubborn and don't want to are simply not community minded. They would rather benefit from those around them who are willing to vaccinate for the good of others but not contribute themselves. They won't like this post but in my opinion, sometimes people need to do things for the greater good, to support those in their community who are at risk and not just be stubbornly self focused because they see no self benefit. We all know who on this board would help a stranger and who would not.




The entire goal was to not overwhelm hospitals. That has been accomplished. If you are vaccinated you have nothing further to worry about.

Allowing everyone to take personal responsibility for their own health is not selfish. It is how things should be done. Blaming others for this disease has created a divide that is unnecessary.

That said, I am one of the recovered and am not a danger to anyone. That isn't a selfish decision.
Bonfired
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KlinkerAg11 said:

I guess I need to clarify. I don't think it's a huge issue, but it's still an issue. More of an issue than death from Covid at this point.

Once again, it's all about risk management and personal choice, for me I wanted no long term symptoms even if they were minor.

I'm a big pro vaccine guy, but I'm also a personal choice guy. If you want it cool, if not that's cool too.
This is the correct answer.
HowdyTexasAggies
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bay fan said:

74OA said:

coolerguy12 said:

Tell you what. I promise not to complain if I become a "Covid long hauler" so stop shoving your vaccine down my throat with your fear mongering and emotions. I'm able to accept my risks, why can't you?
I'm not shoving anything down your throat. The OP posted a method for calculating Covid mortality risk (which doesn't make the 500,000+ dead less so) and I responded by pointing out that now that we know how to prevent most virus deaths, the focus should shift from mortality to morbidity, and that we still need to help those with compromised immune systems (like many cancer survivors). If you don't want to discuss it, then don't.
You hit the nail on the head earlier. There is zero point in expressing any other point of view other then the Covid is fake, you can't make me vaccinate, masks are useless one on this board anymore as you will be aggressively shouted down. I mostly avoid participating any longer as it's not worth it. But here I am right now and those who refuse to vaccinate for no other reason then they are stubborn and don't want to are simply not community minded. They would rather benefit from those around them who are willing to vaccinate for the good of others but not contribute themselves. They won't like this post but in my opinion, sometimes people need to do things for the greater good, to support those in their community who are at risk and not just be stubbornly self focused because they see no self benefit. We all know who on this board would help a stranger and who would not.




So, healthy people that exercise, eat properly, which also happen to be very low risk, are selfish because they won't inject themselves so that fat lazy people risk is lowered?

How about you rewrite your sentence to address the obese?
Rocky Top Aggie
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Based on the information you have provided, the tool estimates that you have 0.02 (95% CI: 0.01 - 0.02 ) times the risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to the average risk for the US population.

the tool estimates an absolute rate of mortality of 3.5 (95% CI: 1.4 - 8.9 ) per 10000000 individuals in subgroups of the population with a similar risk profile to yours

Haven't had the virus (to my knowledge) and am not getting a vaccine.
sloppyjoe
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TarponChaser said:

74OA said:

Try thinking about someone besides yourself. BTW, the flu never killed 500K+ in a year here.

It absolutely did in the pre-flu vaccine. Spanish Influenza killed an estimated 50MM worldwide and something like 750K in the USA.
Also may want to point out to him that the 500K is people that died with Covid, not killed by it. That number includes gunshot wounds, suicides, car wrecks, cancer, etc. deaths where a person tested positive.
AggieUSMC
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Before I was vaccinated, about 0.1%. Now that I'm vaccinated, virtually 0.0%.
TheMasterplan
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bay fan said:

74OA said:

coolerguy12 said:

Tell you what. I promise not to complain if I become a "Covid long hauler" so stop shoving your vaccine down my throat with your fear mongering and emotions. I'm able to accept my risks, why can't you?
I'm not shoving anything down your throat. The OP posted a method for calculating Covid mortality risk (which doesn't make the 500,000+ dead less so) and I responded by pointing out that now that we know how to prevent most virus deaths, the focus should shift from mortality to morbidity, and that we still need to help those with compromised immune systems (like many cancer survivors). If you don't want to discuss it, then don't.
You hit the nail on the head earlier. There is zero point in expressing any other point of view other then the Covid is fake, you can't make me vaccinate, masks are useless one on this board anymore as you will be aggressively shouted down. I mostly avoid participating any longer as it's not worth it. But here I am right now and those who refuse to vaccinate for no other reason then they are stubborn and don't want to are simply not community minded. They would rather benefit from those around them who are willing to vaccinate for the good of others but not contribute themselves. They won't like this post but in my opinion, sometimes people need to do things for the greater good, to support those in their community who are at risk and not just be stubbornly self focused because they see no self benefit. We all know who on this board would help a stranger and who would not.


The greater good is an arbitrary concept that can be defined many other ways.

94chem
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coolerguy12 said:

Tell you what. I promise not to complain if I become a "Covid long hauler" so stop shoving your vaccine down my throat with your fear mongering and emotions. I'm able to accept my risks, why can't you?


I guess. But actually, you're just another smoker or KFC guzzler who burdens the health care system with self-inflicted wounds when you could have gotten a $20 shot. But that's the American way
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
harge57
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Are you implying he is not paying for his healthcare? How is he burdening the healthcare system?

coolerguy12
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94chem said:

coolerguy12 said:

Tell you what. I promise not to complain if I become a "Covid long hauler" so stop shoving your vaccine down my throat with your fear mongering and emotions. I'm able to accept my risks, why can't you?


I guess. But actually, you're just another smoker or KFC guzzler who burdens the health care system with self-inflicted wounds when you could have gotten a $20 shot. But that's the American way


Tell you what, if I get Covid I promise not to go to the hospital. I'm assuming the only way I'll know I had it is the antibody test when I give blood. I'm due for a poke, maybe it happened in the past 3 months.

I haven't taken a single Covid test or bought a single mask this entire time. Doing my part to help out the medical community by not using their resources or taking their PPE.

You're welcome.
TheMasterplan
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94chem said:

coolerguy12 said:

Tell you what. I promise not to complain if I become a "Covid long hauler" so stop shoving your vaccine down my throat with your fear mongering and emotions. I'm able to accept my risks, why can't you?


I guess. But actually, you're just another smoker or KFC guzzler who burdens the health care system with self-inflicted wounds when you could have gotten a $20 shot. But that's the American way
With a hospitalization rate of 1-5% and even smaller since this guy is obviously early 30s? Come on man.
Get Off My Lawn
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Let's reduce the "vaccinate or you're guilty for killing grandma!" argument.

Every human carries a large variety of germs at all times.
Natural human interaction is among the actions which naturally pass these germs.
Good hygiene helps to reduce this spread, but only isolation will eliminate it.
A portion of these common germs go lethal when circumstances permit (staph, for instance).

If we apply the same 'responsibility' for spread to all germs, then EVERY death due to infection becomes "SOMEONE'S" fault for existing as a host who contributed to the spread. From there, no mitigation response is too draconian - up to and including the elimination of all human interaction.
88planoAg
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Get Off My Lawn said:

Let's reduce the "vaccinate or you're guilty for killing grandma!" argument.

Every human carries a large variety of germs at all times.
Natural human interaction is among the actions which naturally pass these germs.
Good hygiene helps to reduce this spread, but only isolation will eliminate it.
A portion of these common germs go lethal when circumstances permit (staph, for instance).

If we apply the same 'responsibility' for spread to all germs, then EVERY death due to infection becomes "SOMEONE'S" fault for existing as a host who contributed to the spread. From there, no mitigation response is too draconian - up to and including the elimination of all human interaction.
Wheatables02
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Over 40 and .002. Moral of the story - eat right, have a good BMI, don't be obese. Guess I'll continue to live my life.
samurai_science
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Based on the below it can barely be measured.

AJ02
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I'm 41 years old.

0.01 times the risk compared to US population.

Mortality rate of 2.1 per 10,000,000 compared to similar subgroups in the Harris county area.

I think I'm good.
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