Mechanistically there's no reason to suspect they would. It's also a persistent myth that this is "new" technology, it's existed for nearly 20 years and has been utilized in multiple ways in multiple fields. There's extensive data on how they work.

Finally, the long terms complication rates from COVID19 are remarkably high for a viral respiratory pathogen. This is true even among young healthy people, where up to 15% of this population is still reporting symptoms or adverse effects months after resolution of infection. The MORBIDITY of the virus is where it dramatically differs from influenza in healthy people (as opposed to the MORTALITY).

So there's no reason to believe the vaccine has long term consequences, and we know COVID19 has relatively high rates of such complications.

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

To the discussion of the importance of getting vaccinated. In communities that are partially vaccinated, the evolutionary pressure on the virus to find a way around the vaccine is significantly stronger than it is in communities that aren't vaccinated. The odds of a viral escape are much higher in America than Africa right now - which is why herd immunity from all variants is an important milestone. Does that mean there will ever be some sort of escape from the virus? No. But partially vaccinated communities are a threat that can lead to a much bigger problem - not that they will. Also, I would encourage you to get vaccinated not just for you, but the people that cannot get vaccinated around you (immunocompromised as an example).

The goal has never been to eradicate the virus, it's been to manage the virus. Last April it was clear eradication was impossible, but slowing the rate of infection was critical (see NYC). Everything since then has been about slowing transmission to a manageable level. Since we never had strong central leadership on the subject, we were left with fragmented local strategies that had to take into account many different variables. The vaccine gives us the pathway to manage the virus above all other measures. However, the virus will be endemic permanently.

I always find it ridiculous when people are worried about the vaccine, but not worried about the virus. It shows a complete lack of knowledge and critical thinking. Lots of good resources have been posted in this thread, so I'll leave it at that. The vaccine only has a 99.9999999999% survival rate after all.

I also don't understand why people can't do the common courtesy of wearing a mask (in public and indoors) until the vaccines are widely available to the public whether you've been vaccinated or not. It's really not asking much and it's almost over. I'd also ask that you don't drink and drive as a common courtesy to those around you. Hopefully that doesn't infringe on your rights to be selfosh and immature too much.

---

Now do the survival rate of the virus. Especially for those under 65.

---

Survival isn't the only metric

Most people who get polio survive, but potentially living out your days in a wheelchair isn't preferable to a vaccine for most people. I've got previously healthy 30-40 year olds still on home oxygen months after their initial infection. LOTS of relatively young post covid clinic patients who still can't return to any form of exercise or physically demanding hobby months after their infection. A good number of post-COVID pulmonary emboli and DVTs. Every day I see at least 1-2 patients with severe long term complications of covid that have landed them back in the hospital.

There's no coherent argument for the vaccine being riskier on any time scale than COVID for any adult population.

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

To the discussion of the importance of getting vaccinated. In communities that are partially vaccinated, the evolutionary pressure on the virus to find a way around the vaccine is significantly stronger than it is in communities that aren't vaccinated. The odds of a viral escape are much higher in America than Africa right now - which is why herd immunity from all variants is an important milestone. Does that mean there will ever be some sort of escape from the virus? No. But partially vaccinated communities are a threat that can lead to a much bigger problem - not that they will. Also, I would encourage you to get vaccinated not just for you, but the people that cannot get vaccinated around you (immunocompromised as an example).

The goal has never been to eradicate the virus, it's been to manage the virus. Last April it was clear eradication was impossible, but slowing the rate of infection was critical (see NYC). Everything since then has been about slowing transmission to a manageable level. Since we never had strong central leadership on the subject, we were left with fragmented local strategies that had to take into account many different variables. The vaccine gives us the pathway to manage the virus above all other measures. However, the virus will be endemic permanently.

I always find it ridiculous when people are worried about the vaccine, but not worried about the virus. It shows a complete lack of knowledge and critical thinking. Lots of good resources have been posted in this thread, so I'll leave it at that. The vaccine only has a 99.9999999999% survival rate after all.

I also don't understand why people can't do the common courtesy of wearing a mask (in public and indoors) until the vaccines are widely available to the public whether you've been vaccinated or not. It's really not asking much and it's almost over. I'd also ask that you don't drink and drive as a common courtesy to those around you. Hopefully that doesn't infringe on your rights to be selfosh and immature too much.

---

Now do the survival rate of the virus. Especially for those under 65.

---

Survival isn't the only metric

Most people who get polio survive, but potentially living out your days in a wheelchair isn't preferable to a vaccine for most people. I've got previously healthy 30-40 year olds still on home oxygen months after their initial infection. LOTS of relatively young post covid clinic patients who still can't return to any form of exercise or physically demanding hobby months after their infection. A good number of post-COVID pulmonary emboli and DVTs. Every day I see at least 1-2 patients with severe long term complications of covid that have landed them back in the hospital.

There's no coherent argument for the vaccine being riskier on any time scale than COVID for any adult population.

---

I never said it did. I have been vaccinated.

Also, comparing COVID19 to polio is a complete joke. You should be embarrassed.

---

Polio has an overall mortality of around 0.03-0.05%, lower than COVID in nearly all age demographics. A larger percentage of polio infections are asymptomatic as well. And only a small percentage (around 0.5%) of polio patients develop any neurological symptoms at all, and only a small percentage of them have chronic debility because of this. COVID has much higher rates of post-infectious complications than this, like two orders of magnitude higher.

Young healthy people survive polio about 99.97% of the time, which is roughly the same as the survival in young healthy people with COVID when accounting for asymptomatic cases. The middle ages and elderly die of COVID far more commonly than they died of polio, which is especially remarkable give the worst polio outbreaks in the west where most of the data comes form occurred in the infancy of modern medicine.

It's almost like I do this for a living

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

To the discussion of the importance of getting vaccinated. In communities that are partially vaccinated, the evolutionary pressure on the virus to find a way around the vaccine is significantly stronger than it is in communities that aren't vaccinated. The odds of a viral escape are much higher in America than Africa right now - which is why herd immunity from all variants is an important milestone. Does that mean there will ever be some sort of escape from the virus? No. But partially vaccinated communities are a threat that can lead to a much bigger problem - not that they will. Also, I would encourage you to get vaccinated not just for you, but the people that cannot get vaccinated around you (immunocompromised as an example).

The goal has never been to eradicate the virus, it's been to manage the virus. Last April it was clear eradication was impossible, but slowing the rate of infection was critical (see NYC). Everything since then has been about slowing transmission to a manageable level. Since we never had strong central leadership on the subject, we were left with fragmented local strategies that had to take into account many different variables. The vaccine gives us the pathway to manage the virus above all other measures. However, the virus will be endemic permanently.

I always find it ridiculous when people are worried about the vaccine, but not worried about the virus. It shows a complete lack of knowledge and critical thinking. Lots of good resources have been posted in this thread, so I'll leave it at that. The vaccine only has a 99.9999999999% survival rate after all.

I also don't understand why people can't do the common courtesy of wearing a mask (in public and indoors) until the vaccines are widely available to the public whether you've been vaccinated or not. It's really not asking much and it's almost over. I'd also ask that you don't drink and drive as a common courtesy to those around you. Hopefully that doesn't infringe on your rights to be selfosh and immature too much.

---

Now do the survival rate of the virus. Especially for those under 65.

---

Survival isn't the only metric

Most people who get polio survive, but potentially living out your days in a wheelchair isn't preferable to a vaccine for most people. I've got previously healthy 30-40 year olds still on home oxygen months after their initial infection. LOTS of relatively young post covid clinic patients who still can't return to any form of exercise or physically demanding hobby months after their infection. A good number of post-COVID pulmonary emboli and DVTs. Every day I see at least 1-2 patients with severe long term complications of covid that have landed them back in the hospital.

There's no coherent argument for the vaccine being riskier on any time scale than COVID for any adult population.

---

I never said it did. I have been vaccinated.

Also, comparing COVID19 to polio is a complete joke. You should be embarrassed.

---

Polio has an overall mortality of around 0.03-0.05%, lower than COVID in nearly all age demographics. A larger percentage of polio infections are asymptomatic as well. And only a small percentage (around 0.5%) of polio patients develop any neurological symptoms at all, and only a small percentage of them have chronic debility because of this. COVID has much higher rates of post-infectious complications than this, like two orders of magnitude higher.

Young healthy people survive polio about 99.97% of the time, which is roughly the same as the survival in young healthy people with COVID when accounting for asymptomatic cases. The middle ages and elderly die of COVID far more commonly than they died of polio, which is especially remarkable give the worst polio outbreaks in the west where most of the data comes form occurred in the infancy of modern medicine.

It's almost like I do this for a living

---

I'm very impressed with your reasoned and well thought out answers while debating someone like Bad Moon Rison who obviously is clueless yet doubles down every chance he gets. I am looking forward to his response, I am wondering if he is a big enough person to say you know what maybe I don't know a whole lot and should not say things so matter of factly and look a fool. Possibly grow intellectually from this, but I have my doubts.

Polio is also a great example of how our our forefathers weren't "tougher" than we were, and that panic over diseases with relatively low morality isn't new or unusual. It was a disease that was both less contagious than COVID and, at worst, had similar mortality statistics in some populations. The pictures of children in iron lungs, while very sad, were a SMALL minority. Yet there was years of widespread panic, intermittent aggressive public measures to limit human interaction, and massive push for the government to "do something".

And the only reason people perceive there being no "panic" related to the Spanish flu was because nobody is still alive to tell the story, and because news outlets at the time were preoccupied with what to date was the biggest conflict and news story in human history (WWI).

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Polio is also a great example of how our our forefathers weren't "tougher" than we were, and that panic over diseases with relatively low morality isn't new or unusual. It was a disease that was both less contagious than COVID and, at worst, had similar mortality statistics in some populations. The pictures of children in iron lungs, while very sad, were a SMALL minority. Yet there was years of widespread panic, intermittent aggressive public measures to limit human interaction, and massive push for the government to "do something".

And the only reason people perceive there being no "panic" related to the Spanish flu was because nobody is still alive to tell the story, and because news outlets at the time were preoccupied with what to date was the biggest conflict and news story in human history (WWI).

---

I did not know that Polio's mortality rate was so low, that was interesting to me and also I liked how you tied in the COVID long haulers with Polio survivors in wheel chairs. Saying who wants to walk around with supplemental O2 for who knows how long, as I personally know someone doing just this and is in his 50's. There are many on this forum that are saying I am not getting this vaccine because we don't know and I won't have a negative outcome on COVID, yet there are many examples of people in their 30's who have ZERO exercise tolerance and they used to run and workout regularly. When I read about those people early on that really hit me that yeah I am unlikely to die from this thing but that would suck to not to have lung function or elevated heart rate with little effort and not be able to workout even if its just a year. In fact that was my biggest worry and got vaccinated as soon as possible. I never hunkered down and went out the whole time because I don't want to live my life in fear so I didn't but was happy to take the vaccine first chance I could. Thank you for your insight.

Irwin M. Fletcher said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

Polio is also a great example of how our our forefathers weren't "tougher" than we were, and that panic over diseases with relatively low morality isn't new or unusual. It was a disease that was both less contagious than COVID and, at worst, had similar mortality statistics in some populations. The pictures of children in iron lungs, while very sad, were a SMALL minority. Yet there was years of widespread panic, intermittent aggressive public measures to limit human interaction, and massive push for the government to "do something".

And the only reason people perceive there being no "panic" related to the Spanish flu was because nobody is still alive to tell the story, and because news outlets at the time were preoccupied with what to date was the biggest conflict and news story in human history (WWI).

---

I did not know that Polio's mortality rate was so low, that was interesting to me and also I liked how you tied in the COVID long haulers with Polio survivors in wheel chairs. Saying who wants to walk around with supplemental O2 for who knows how long, as I personally know someone doing just this and is in his 50's. There are many on this forum that are saying I am not getting this vaccine because we don't know and I won't have a negative outcome on COVID, yet there are many examples of people in their 30's who have ZERO exercise tolerance and they used to run and workout regularly. When I read about those people early on that really hit me that yeah I am unlikely to die from this thing but that would suck to not to have lung function or elevated heart rate with little effort and not be able to workout even if its just a year. In fact that was my biggest worry and got vaccinated as soon as possible. I never hunkered down and went out the whole time because I don't want to live my life in fear so I didn't but was happy to take the vaccine first chance I could. Thank you for your insight.

---

Add me to the list of people who were briefly hesitant of getting the vaccine. I changed my mind when I
1) Actually learned how these vaccines work.
2) Saw the data from the trials, and realized that they weren't "rushed" in the sense that people imply.
3) Realized surviving COVID but losing enough of my lung function and exercise tolerance so that I could no longer hike up and down a mountain with a pack on my back and a bow in hand would suck.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

BadMoonRisin said:

---

Gordo14 said:

---

To the discussion of the importance of getting vaccinated. In communities that are partially vaccinated, the evolutionary pressure on the virus to find a way around the vaccine is significantly stronger than it is in communities that aren't vaccinated. The odds of a viral escape are much higher in America than Africa right now - which is why herd immunity from all variants is an important milestone. Does that mean there will ever be some sort of escape from the virus? No. But partially vaccinated communities are a threat that can lead to a much bigger problem - not that they will. Also, I would encourage you to get vaccinated not just for you, but the people that cannot get vaccinated around you (immunocompromised as an example).

The goal has never been to eradicate the virus, it's been to manage the virus. Last April it was clear eradication was impossible, but slowing the rate of infection was critical (see NYC). Everything since then has been about slowing transmission to a manageable level. Since we never had strong central leadership on the subject, we were left with fragmented local strategies that had to take into account many different variables. The vaccine gives us the pathway to manage the virus above all other measures. However, the virus will be endemic permanently.

I always find it ridiculous when people are worried about the vaccine, but not worried about the virus. It shows a complete lack of knowledge and critical thinking. Lots of good resources have been posted in this thread, so I'll leave it at that. The vaccine only has a 99.9999999999% survival rate after all.

I also don't understand why people can't do the common courtesy of wearing a mask (in public and indoors) until the vaccines are widely available to the public whether you've been vaccinated or not. It's really not asking much and it's almost over. I'd also ask that you don't drink and drive as a common courtesy to those around you. Hopefully that doesn't infringe on your rights to be selfosh and immature too much.

---

Now do the survival rate of the virus. Especially for those under 65.

---

Survival isn't the only metric

Most people who get polio survive, but potentially living out your days in a wheelchair isn't preferable to a vaccine for most people. I've got previously healthy 30-40 year olds still on home oxygen months after their initial infection. LOTS of relatively young post covid clinic patients who still can't return to any form of exercise or physically demanding hobby months after their infection. A good number of post-COVID pulmonary emboli and DVTs. Every day I see at least 1-2 patients with severe long term complications of covid that have landed them back in the hospital.

There's no coherent argument for the vaccine being riskier on any time scale than COVID for any adult population.

---

I never said it did. I have been vaccinated.

Also, comparing COVID19 to polio is a complete joke. You should be embarrassed.

---

Polio has an overall mortality of around 0.03-0.05%, lower than COVID in nearly all age demographics. A larger percentage of polio infections are asymptomatic as well. And only a small percentage (around 0.5%) of polio patients develop any neurological symptoms at all, and only a small percentage of them have chronic debility because of this. COVID has much higher rates of post-infectious complications than this, like two orders of magnitude higher.

Young healthy people survive polio about 99.97% of the time, which is roughly the same as the survival in young healthy people with COVID when accounting for asymptomatic cases. The middle ages and elderly die of COVID far more commonly than they died of polio, which is especially remarkable give the worst polio outbreaks in the west where most of the data comes form occurred in the infancy of modern medicine.

It's almost like I do this for a living

---

Thanks for sticking with this forum. Odd how many either don't understand or fail to respect the knowledge a doctor brings to this forum. Your time spent squashing falsities is appreciated.

I disagree with much of what has been implemented in many states and at the national level since last May or so. And the mask debate is effectively a moot point because far too small a percentage of the public wears them correctly to actually assess efficacy.

For example, the claim that we don't know whether the vaccines decrease asymptomatic transmission is just not true. We know from international studies, most notably those in Israel and South Korea, that it dramatically decreases such transmission. And unless we assume this virus behaves distinctly differently from essentially every other RNA virus we've ever discovered, we already knew that would be the case.

Probably my biggest gripe overall has been this sort of intentionally obtuse mindset from many in the scientific community whereby we grant this virus magical powers that make it wholly unique among RNA respiratory viruses. There's just never been any evidence at any point along the way that the response to natural infection or vaccine would be unpredictable or different than to other similar viruses.

bay fan said:

---

]Thanks for sticking with this forum. Odd how many either don't understand or fail to respect the knowledge a doctor brings to this forum. Your time spent squashing falsities is appreciated.

---

Reminds me of this:

Salute The Marines said:

---

Fantastic post. It seems like the term "novel virus" has been abused to just assert any fear fantasy you can to the abilities of Covid.

---

Much of it is simply the reality that this debate falls almost exactly down political party lines. As with many things, so many on both sides just want to be "right".

But there's something to be said for the changes in perception thriving modern societies have towards life and risk. We've created a society where if you live a reasonably healthy lifestyle and don't abuse various substances too heavily, you can generally expect to live around 80 years. No other society, or even any other generation prior to the baby boomers, has ever had such a luxury. We're risk averse in some ways because we know how much time we stand to lose by dying "before our time". When someone dies before their kids graduate high school today, it's seen as shocking in most cases. 100 years ago the average male life expectancy was about 46 years, and so it was very normal for people to die when their kids were still teenagers. When you know you have a strong chance of dying before you even hit 50, you view life differently. When you know you stand to lose 30-40+ years by dying before 50, the shifts the risk equation. Because of this, I think we're just less prone to taking even the smallest risks sometimes when we perceive them as unique. We obviously tolerate other necessary risks such as driving cars and eating fast food, however.

traxter said:

---

bay fan said:

---

]Thanks for sticking with this forum. Odd how many either don't understand or fail to respect the knowledge a doctor brings to this forum. Your time spent squashing falsities is appreciated.

---

Reminds me of this:

---

Yep. Now imagine what its like for us finance, econ and statistics people having our expertise and experience questioned and our opinions related to the covid response silenced since about March 2020.

It goes both ways...

tysker said:

---

traxter said:

---

bay fan said:

---

]Thanks for sticking with this forum. Odd how many either don't understand or fail to respect the knowledge a doctor brings to this forum. Your time spent squashing falsities is appreciated.

---

Reminds me of this:

---

Yep. Now imagine what its like for us finance, econ and statistics people having our expertise and experience questioned and our opinions related to the covid response silenced since about March 2020.

It goes both ways...

---

The difference, as I see it, is that people were acknowledging the economic fallout and simply arguing that the measures were worth it. I don't necessarily agree with that, certainly not in al cases, but I don't really remember any major voice stating there wouldn't be significant economic fallout.

I've listened to a LARGE portion of the population flat out deny reality as it exists in my field over the last year. Millions of Americans actually believe most reported COVID cases are influenza or that we're listing hundreds of thousands of non-COVID related deaths as being COVID as part of some master conspiracy. Literally every day I have to explain to people that they aren't being injected with aborted baby cells, microchips or toxic metals.

tysker said:

---

traxter said:

---

bay fan said:

---

]Thanks for sticking with this forum. Odd how many either don't understand or fail to respect the knowledge a doctor brings to this forum. Your time spent squashing falsities is appreciated.

---

Reminds me of this:

---

Yep. Now imagine what its like for us finance, econ and statistics people having our expertise and experience questioned and our opinions related to the covid response silenced since about March 2020.

It goes both ways...

---

I guess if you were to be on the finance, Econ or stats forum that would be very frustrating. The thing is, this is the Covid forum and you don't seem to understand you do not have the same expertise here as a physician. Your whining about your medical expertise being questioned here is ridiculous.

Quote:

---

Yep. Now imagine what its like for us finance, econ and statistics people having our expertise and experience questioned and our opinions related to the covid response silenced since about March 2020.

---

This is probably not the correct board for this . . . .unfortunately the only suitable venue is the pure insanity that is the politics board and only a few really want to spend time there.

I will say also having studied and worked in financial and econ circles in most parts of the world, there was not some hot debate except is narrow, cranky circles. We went to zero rates and MMT level unemployment benefits in records time and then we just had to watch and wait.

Most economists and markets strategists I worked with were blowing the dust off of early 20th century analysis for precedent and that wasn't even really relevant because people kept going to work back then.

I will also say you are overbilling "financial and economic" expertise to deal with much of anything. As much as it pains me to say it, it is one of the least predictive social science fields out there.

Infection_Ag11 said:

---

tysker said:

---

traxter said:

---

bay fan said:

---

]Thanks for sticking with this forum. Odd how many either don't understand or fail to respect the knowledge a doctor brings to this forum. Your time spent squashing falsities is appreciated.

---

Reminds me of this:

---

Yep. Now imagine what its like for us finance, econ and statistics people having our expertise and experience questioned and our opinions related to the covid response silenced since about March 2020.

It goes both ways...

---

The difference, as I see it, is that people were acknowledging the economic fallout and simply arguing that the measures were worth it. I don't necessarily agree with that, certainly not in al cases, but I don't really remember any major voice stating there wouldn't be significant economic fallout.

I've listened to a LARGE portion of the population flat out deny reality as it exists in my field over the last year. Millions of Americans actually believe most reported COVID cases are influenza or that we're listing hundreds of thousands of non-COVID related deaths as being COVID as part of some master conspiracy. Literally every day I have to explain to people that they aren't being injected with aborted baby cells, microchips or toxic metals.

---

Yes there was going to economic fallout but there was little admission from anyone that the economic and statistical community could have a done clearly better analysis of the second and third order effects of the mandated response. And there was rarely an open discussion on trade-offs and if any of this was/will be 'worth it.' Every time some of us attempted to have a QALY discussion, have an open ethical dialogue about the purpose, determined goals, and presumed end-game which, as is often the case, contained attributable dollar terms, the presenters called monsters. (Some still do on this board even.)

Many aren't rejecting covid, they are rejecting our response. There is a difference and a clear one if you are willing to see it. I believe people are using the word 'conspiracy' when they actually they mean 'scam,' 'con,' 'swindle,' or even 'shakedown.' Again not about covid the disease but our response to covid (and then the response to the response).

You're complaint about patients rejecting the vaccine due to dead baby parts or whatever is a non-sequitur as that happens all the time. You just see it more often right now. Similar to all the miscommunication and misinformation surrounding covid, your vaccine problem is a function of a medical establishment not delivering proper information to the population + the population not accepting the received information.

Look I get doctors dont like being told they may be wrong and often cannot publicly admit mistakes or failure. Very few professionals do. But the medical establishment cant also be experts in statistics. ethics, psychology, sociology, economics or politics. So maybe trust others for their expertise and foresight in those fields the way we trust your industry and expertise and experience.

Quote:

---

But the medical establishment cant also be experts in statistics. ethics, psychology, sociology, economics or politics

---

So the medical establishment of course goes very very deep into statistics and ethics and psychology is considered a medical field.

But what you are backing into here is the actual political decision for lockdowns. Marrying these different viewpoints is the job of elected officials and they unanimously went a certain direction after considering everything you raise. Take it up with Greg Abbott or Donald Trump or Clay Jenkins.

And no one anywhere ever wants to have a real discussion about QALY . . . . .all you get is commercials about rolling granny off a cliff or screeching about death panels.