https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/534524-federal-covid-19-vaccine-reserve-is-now-empty

So... how are we supposed to increase the pace of vaccines if we do not have the vaccines to increase the pace of them?

We are out reserves and taking straight out of the production lines apparently. It would seem that hopes of increasing vaccinations here in Brazos County are shot and we are back to 100 a day.

Anyone else got any more info on this?

This appears to be a hot mess. I'm hoping there's misinformation out there and it will be clarified soon, but I'm not holding my breath.

Forbes reporting the same thing. Both articles are based on a Washington Post report.

If it's untrue (which I hope), it wouldn't be difficult for someone who knows to provide the details needed to disprove it. I hope they do.

Just heard from my nephew (hospital admin) who said the state just called this evening and cancelled a planned distribution of vaccine doses, telling them that there are no reserves left.

buffalo chip said:

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Just heard from my nephew (hospital admin) who said the state just called this evening and cancelled a planned distribution of vaccine doses, telling them that there are no reserves left.

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Which state?

Simple question probably with a really complicated answer but......

How difficult are these vaccines to make now that the "formula/design" has been created? I see that the group linked to A&M is going to start making some of these. I am confident in the vaccine but for some reason I am becoming skeptical/worried that future rounds of vaccine will not be as effective.

I could be completely wrong but I was assuming the "federal reserve" just meant those doses the fed pre purchased prior to FDA approval.

Well, I think originally some were kept so that, due to the newness of the product, they'd be available for use as the 2nd/booster shots, but now with production in full swing it's not needed to be withheld as such.

The US expects to have 200 million doses by July.

Quote:

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That means the United States should have 200 million doses each from the companies with authorized shots, Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna enough to guarantee that more than 70 percent of adults will be able to get the two-shot vaccination by the end of July.

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I don't think supply is a real issue, but distribution of anything critical is always boring until it's not (just like the poor guys stuck in Bastogne without cold weather gear 70 or so years ago could attest).

It's interesting perspective that in the US, only around 4 million pediatric vaccines are administered annually (from the above article). I'm not sure the total including adults, but I would hazard it is ordinarily less than 20 million per year.

The US has committed to buying 600 million of the 'still in development' doses (other manufacturers like JnJ) in addition to the Moderna and Pfizer 400 million, but comparing the annual 'normal' vaccine rate vs. something like this sort of puts it in a different light. I think the propaganda/scare articles will go down in a week, which will help people calm down (the opposite party governors are contributing a lot to the present anger, frankly, but this is their last window to use it politically to their advantage).

Born&Raised said:

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buffalo chip said:

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Just heard from my nephew (hospital admin) who said the state just called this evening and cancelled a planned distribution of vaccine doses, telling them that there are no reserves left.

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Which state?

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Texas

Pfizer is running out of space in their cold storage. It's a distribution problem.

Born&Raised said:

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amercer said:

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Pfizer is running out of space in their cold storage. It's a distribution problem.

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Link?

Personally I think we are screwed...and just need to rip the bandaid off and infect everyone at once - that way it will really be the final 2 weeks.

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Unfortunately the virus kind of moves at its own pace, so unless we start having nationwide Covid parties and coughing in each other's faces it would probably be another year before everyone gets it.

Biden said when he takes office, he will distribute all doses and not have any in reserve. Does that mean there wouldn't be any left for people who need a second dose?

Aggie95 said:

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Simple question probably with a really complicated answer but......

How difficult are these vaccines to make now that the "formula/design" has been created? I see that the group linked to A&M is going to start making some of these. I am confident in the vaccine but for some reason I am becoming skeptical/worried that future rounds of vaccine will not be as effective.

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It requires specialized facilities, but is not difficult to make. The most challenging parts is chemical synthesis of the mRNA and the micro encapsulation. Takes time, but really just adding the right stuff at the right time, which I suspect if very automated. Quality control on this stuff is going to be really tight. Production ramp up is about bringing more equipment online rather than speeding up production.

The facilities in BCS aren't the kind for producing the mRNA vaccine. A&M is signed up for manufacture of a different type of vaccine. The AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines use a virus to carry the covid spike protein gene. Growing the virus is more along the lines of what the A&M facilities are set up for.

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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I could be completely wrong but I was assuming the "federal reserve" just meant those doses the fed pre purchased prior to FDA approval.

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Yes completely wrong. Fed prepurchase wasn't buy a bunch and stick it in a warehouse until FDA approval. Fed prepurchase was a contract for delivery after FDA approval and as it was made.

The contracts were generally an initial 100 million doses with options to purchase 100s of millions more.

pocketrockets06 said:

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FYI - we give out around 160 million flu shots every year, most in a 2-3 month window. Vaccinating 50 million people a month is totally doable if the vaccine supply and storage requirements are similar to the flu shot.

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Well, it isn't. Both Pfizer and Moderna have to be frozen, which isn't a requirement of the flu vaccine. Not insurmountable, but more challenging.

Additionally, we spend months manufacturing the flu vaccine to build a stockpile prior to its roll out. This process is basically shipping out as it is made, so we are limited to the speed of manufacture.

That isn't to say 50 million a month isn't doable. Although, cut that in half because you need 2 doses vs 1 for influenza.

The other challenge is flu vaccine is available to everyone at the same time. No dividing into group 1A, 1B etc. that means you can give them to whoever walks in the door and not have to make a determination where this person fits in line.

amercer said:

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The link is people I know at Pfizer. YMMV

Now, the vaccines are made in batches so it's not accurate to say that a million are being made a day, but if you make a 7 million dose batch every week it's kind of like that.

I can't see the future, so maybe there will be a manufacturing snag at some point, but my understanding it that it's not currently a problem

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Pfizer was shipping direct. Wonder if this is a result of the shift in the process to reward states that were more effective at reporting getting it into people's arms and the shift in strategies to consolidate administering the vaccine.

When it was population based, the process should have been Texas gets this many boxes from each batch and we go down this list of places to send it. Now, they have to figure out how many doses were administered and change the allocation between states. And then the switch to hubs means the list of places to ship has changed too.

I wonder also how much of that in storage is being readied to ship to other countries.

Dang, Biochem dropping some knowledge this morning.

And thanks for setting me straight. I don't like being wrong so always appreciate learning something new so I can be right in the future.

Which would be the more effective strategy in the short term: to get the vaccine into as many arms as possible or to focus on a specific group? Meaning, would it be better to not have all the crazy registration steps and just give the shot to anyone who shows up or keep using the current system?

pocketrockets06 said:

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From the studies it looked like the vaccines were around 80% effective 10-14 days after the first dose. So you should be reasonably protected (keep the mask on)

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A dr was posting the studies and it's closer to 90%+.

My inside info is that the facilities in college station are making the Novavax vaccine right now. It's secondhand inside info though.

amercer said:

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Pfizer is running out of space in their cold storage. It's a distribution problem.

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I heard a weird story about this and they want to use dipping dot storage because is the right temp.

amercer said:

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My inside info is that the facilities in college station are making the Novavax vaccine right now. It's secondhand inside info though.

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O great! So while the first people got a vaccine that was 95% effective - the people that come later and are less important get one that is.... 50%-70%

Or roughly the same as a flu shot.

Sucks to suck at the bottom of the heap here in B county.

Maybe, maybe not. The other trials haven't read out yet so we don't know what the numbers will really be. It's been clear from the outset though that while the mRNA vaccines would be quicker to develop, that more traditional vaccines would have a huge advantage on the production side.