Not making a political statement....but is there ANYWAY possible this would happen?
Doctors? 200,000 more COVID deaths between now and 12/31
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Last: 3 yr ago by amercer
No
70 days until the end of the year. About 1000 deaths today. Numbers currently inching up.
200k seems unlikely. There are certainly reports from both the US and Europe that after mostly being young people getting infected for the last few months that more older people are now getting it.
It's a morbid thing to guess on, but I'd set the over/under at 50k for the rest of the year in the US. Hopefully the death rate falls off a cliff once the vaccine is rolled out to high risk people in December.
200k seems unlikely. There are certainly reports from both the US and Europe that after mostly being young people getting infected for the last few months that more older people are now getting it.
It's a morbid thing to guess on, but I'd set the over/under at 50k for the rest of the year in the US. Hopefully the death rate falls off a cliff once the vaccine is rolled out to high risk people in December.
Highly unlikely
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About as likely as 23,000 dead in Texas by the end of August. Just insultingly ludicrous
Possible. But a lot of things would have to go the wrong way for that to happen.
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What scenario would lead to 200k more deaths in less than 2.5 months when we have 225k in 8 months?
Unlikely things like the right mutation(s), severe and early influenza season leading to vastly diminished hospital capacity and deaths from confections, lack of holiday SD combined with delayed response by authorities due to blowback from prior shutdowns, etc.GAC06 said:
What scenario would lead to 200k more deaths in less than 2.5 months when we have 225k in 8 months?
So possible but quite unlikely by Jan 1
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
The projection is closer to less than half that
One month later and getting up to 2K a day
Nope
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
So now your saying that we can get Covid from a cupcake?Pelayo said:Unlikely things like the right mutation(s), severe and early influenza season leading to vastly diminished hospital capacity and deaths from confections, lack of holiday SD combined with delayed response by authorities due to blowback from prior shutdowns, etc.GAC06 said:
What scenario would lead to 200k more deaths in less than 2.5 months when we have 225k in 8 months?
So possible but quite unlikely by Jan 1
COVID seems to be mutating to a weaker form so the death rate is dropping, to have that many deaths it would need to mutate like the Spanish flu which rarely happens. Plus our healthcare system is much better
The virus and healthcare are doing their part. The humans, not so much. That's the wildcard.
Username checks out.
So what are the humans not doing? Everywhere I go, almost everyone is masked. What else can they do? WHat else should they be doing?I Am A Critic said:
The virus and healthcare are doing their part. The humans, not so much. That's the wildcard.
Capitol Ag said:So now your saying that we can get Covid from a cupcake?Pelayo said:Unlikely things like the right mutation(s), severe and early influenza season leading to vastly diminished hospital capacity and deaths from confections, lack of holiday SD combined with delayed response by authorities due to blowback from prior shutdowns, etc.GAC06 said:
What scenario would lead to 200k more deaths in less than 2.5 months when we have 225k in 8 months?
So possible but quite unlikely by Jan 1
Terrible news leading into the holiday sweets season.
They want humans to stop being human, with the hope that this causes the virus to stop being a virus.Capitol Ag said:So what are the humans not doing? Everywhere I go, almost everyone is masked. What else can they do? WHat else should they be doing?I Am A Critic said:
The virus and healthcare are doing their part. The humans, not so much. That's the wildcard.
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
Well, they do make you fat so...Capitol Ag said:So now your saying that we can get Covid from a cupcake?Pelayo said:Unlikely things like the right mutation(s), severe and early influenza season leading to vastly diminished hospital capacity and deaths from confections, lack of holiday SD combined with delayed response by authorities due to blowback from prior shutdowns, etc.GAC06 said:
What scenario would lead to 200k more deaths in less than 2.5 months when we have 225k in 8 months?
So possible but quite unlikely by Jan 1
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
200k seems like a stretch. We will almost assuredly have 60k min. It seems like we're probably going to be at least 1k per day for a while. It'll probably get worse as things get colder, but it seems like the extreme cold doesn't hit most areas until Jan and Feb. To get to 200k, the numbers would have to triple, and I don't see that happening. Worst case, I would think would be about 100k-120k. Realistically, though, I think it'll probably be about 70-75k.
Well done....very very well done!Pelayo said:Well, they do make you fat so...Capitol Ag said:So now your saying that we can get Covid from a cupcake?Pelayo said:Unlikely things like the right mutation(s), severe and early influenza season leading to vastly diminished hospital capacity and deaths from confections, lack of holiday SD combined with delayed response by authorities due to blowback from prior shutdowns, etc.GAC06 said:
What scenario would lead to 200k more deaths in less than 2.5 months when we have 225k in 8 months?
So possible but quite unlikely by Jan 1
You observing it does not mean it's happening everywhere.I see a lot of people not wearing masks and not social distancing. If the numbers of cars in driveways and in the street over the weekend are any indication, people from separate households are still congregating together.Capitol Ag said:So what are the humans not doing? Everywhere I go, almost everyone is masked. What else can they do? WHat else should they be doing?I Am A Critic said:
The virus and healthcare are doing their part. The humans, not so much. That's the wildcard.
Username checks out.
This is a fact.Pelayo said:Well, they do make you fat so...Capitol Ag said:So now your saying that we can get Covid from a cupcake?Pelayo said:Unlikely things like the right mutation(s), severe and early influenza season leading to vastly diminished hospital capacity and deaths from confections, lack of holiday SD combined with delayed response by authorities due to blowback from prior shutdowns, etc.GAC06 said:
What scenario would lead to 200k more deaths in less than 2.5 months when we have 225k in 8 months?
So possible but quite unlikely by Jan 1
I'll see your anecdata and raise you this much anecdata
Anecdotal: I don't know anyone who has died of COVID but I have had three friends...all ten years younger than me...drink themselves to death this year.
Cancel Thanksgiving is really trending right now. It's a month away. I don't understand the panic.
I Am A Critic said:You observing it does not mean it's happening everywhere.I see a lot of people not wearing masks and not social distancing. If the numbers of cars in driveways and in the street over the weekend are any indication, people from separate households are still congregating together.Capitol Ag said:So what are the humans not doing? Everywhere I go, almost everyone is masked. What else can they do? WHat else should they be doing?I Am A Critic said:
The virus and healthcare are doing their part. The humans, not so much. That's the wildcard.
Damn right I'm congregating and socializing. Last night six of us smoked cigars and drank. I flew Monday. I are out every day this week. It's great to live life.
And it's a a lot more healthy for the vast majority of us than staying isolated and locked up. We need interaction, and not through a computer monitor. It's the kind of interaction that being face to face with another person can give us, or being at live events etc. We can still do all of this while using proper judgement and limit the spread of the virus.ORAggieFan said:I Am A Critic said:You observing it does not mean it's happening everywhere.I see a lot of people not wearing masks and not social distancing. If the numbers of cars in driveways and in the street over the weekend are any indication, people from separate households are still congregating together.Capitol Ag said:So what are the humans not doing? Everywhere I go, almost everyone is masked. What else can they do? WHat else should they be doing?I Am A Critic said:
The virus and healthcare are doing their part. The humans, not so much. That's the wildcard.
Damn right I'm congregating and socializing. Last night six of us smoked cigars and drank. I flew Monday. I are out every day this week. It's great to live life.
ORAggieFan said:I Am A Critic said:You observing it does not mean it's happening everywhere.I see a lot of people not wearing masks and not social distancing. If the numbers of cars in driveways and in the street over the weekend are any indication, people from separate households are still congregating together.Capitol Ag said:So what are the humans not doing? Everywhere I go, almost everyone is masked. What else can they do? WHat else should they be doing?I Am A Critic said:
The virus and healthcare are doing their part. The humans, not so much. That's the wildcard.
Damn right I'm congregating and socializing. Last night six of us smoked cigars and drank. I flew Monday. I are out every day this week. It's great to live life.
I got married two weeks ago. 100+ in attendance, the band was great. No masks, packed dance floor. A great time was had by all, oh and zero cases. Go live, people.
I Am A Critic said:You observing it does not mean it's happening everywhere.I see a lot of people not wearing masks and not social distancing. If the numbers of cars in driveways and in the street over the weekend are any indication, people from separate households are still congregating together.Capitol Ag said:So what are the humans not doing? Everywhere I go, almost everyone is masked. What else can they do? WHat else should they be doing?I Am A Critic said:
The virus and healthcare are doing their part. The humans, not so much. That's the wildcard.
I'm happy that this is happening and I hope that, as we enter the holiday season, it continues to increase so that everyone can see and fully understand the lie that has been forced on us for nearly all of 2020.
The only way the veil is pulled back is more people being social and realizing how ridiculously low the negative impact of it actually is.
" 'People that read with pictures think that it's simply about a mask' - Dana Loesch" - Ban Cow Gas
"Truth is treason in the empire of lies." - Dr. Ron Paul
Big Tech IS the empire of lies
TEXIT
"Truth is treason in the empire of lies." - Dr. Ron Paul
Big Tech IS the empire of lies
TEXIT
Also I went out for drinks last night and my wife's friend mentioned that her company is going back to the office because a manager and mother in her late thirties took her own life.
With the holidays approaching it's increasingly important to get back to normal.
With the holidays approaching it's increasingly important to get back to normal.
Heck no.
Every region that spikes has yet to have another significant spike. All the media hand wringing about the current uptick is in areas that did not have a summer spike like Florida and Texas did.
Even with the return of students, BCS got a bump but not a huge spike as predicted.
Every region that spikes has yet to have another significant spike. All the media hand wringing about the current uptick is in areas that did not have a summer spike like Florida and Texas did.
Even with the return of students, BCS got a bump but not a huge spike as predicted.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Quote:
70 days until the end of the year. About 1000 deaths today. Numbers currently inching up.
This sounds accurate...50,000-60,000 at present daily death rate. Obviously a lot could change, from new or renewed restrictions, to lessened restrictions, to "super-spikes" in this or that area (North Dakota) skewing the national results.
OP you may wish to contact the TAMU School of Public Health and see what those folks might say in response to your question.
Those extrapolation curves are terrible. More likely is that the rate of increase of death continues to level off. I'd be shocked if we hit 250K total.
Utah is having a very bad time right now.
https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/10/25/with-coronavirus-cases/
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