Flu down 98% since April globally
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Last: 4 yr ago by Agsrback12
Masks and social distancing work for more than just Covid. People are also washing their hands more and hand sanitizer is everywhere. Anyone calling for some sort of normal or massive flu season is likely wrong.
Probably a lot more people getting flu shots this year than normal too...
I figured social distancing, masks, better hygien, etc would result in maybe 15-20 percent fewer cases this year...but 95%+!!! That's weird.
Rubble said:
Probably a lot more people getting flu shots this year than normal too...
Flu shots in northern hemisphere is usually in fall and wouldn't really have an effect yet.
My neighbor works for a company that makes point of care testing machines for flu/Covid/etc (he's promised me one 
)
He's been telling me for a while that's there is basically no flu in Australia this year.
)He's been telling me for a while that's there is basically no flu in Australia this year.
Read earlier this month(no link) that Australia typically averages about 29,000 cases of flu yearly; this year less than 200.
It will be a fascinating thing to study. If social distancing and masks really knock down flu 99% it will be a testament to how much more contagious Covid is.
Also though there is an interesting public health angle as yearly flu vaccinations probably provide some low level lasting immunity even if they don't get the strain right some years. It's hard to get people to vaccinate, but I wonder if annual common cold vaccines would have stopped this pandemic in its tracks.
Also though there is an interesting public health angle as yearly flu vaccinations probably provide some low level lasting immunity even if they don't get the strain right some years. It's hard to get people to vaccinate, but I wonder if annual common cold vaccines would have stopped this pandemic in its tracks.
Rhinovirus is continuing unabated, so it would seem to be quite premature to attribute causality to "mitigation".
Moreover, if masks and hygiene worked to stop the flu, Japan would be seeing comparable flu results this year as in prior years. Instead, Japan is seeing the same precipitous drop as elsewhere, regardless of policy.
Moreover, if masks and hygiene worked to stop the flu, Japan would be seeing comparable flu results this year as in prior years. Instead, Japan is seeing the same precipitous drop as elsewhere, regardless of policy.
Well every sniffle and cough is reported as a Covid case, so what do you expect.
Maybe Covid creates immunity to the flu!
Again, the flu is probably much more susceptible to mitigation strategies because of low level herd immunity that exists from decades of people getting flu vaccines. I used to work with a bunch of people in infectious disease and many of them weren't too concerned about getting a flu shot every year because they knew they already had antibody titer against most strains.
The other option of course is that, for what ever reason, this was going to be a mild flu season and now social distancing has completely crushed it.
The other option of course is that, for what ever reason, this was going to be a mild flu season and now social distancing has completely crushed it.
Australia has been in steady lockdown. There are some places in Australia that still restrict travel to essential purposes only. There are areas where people are still not allowed to travel more than a few miles from their houses. They are not even allowed to complain about the regulations on social media.
So, not surprised have not been seeing much of a flu season.
So, not surprised have not been seeing much of a flu season.
Deleted
Where did you get that information? I know many people who have gone to the doctor and been diagnosed with allergies or a cold, not Covid.
Is the time frame really meaningful? April is the tail end of flu in the northern hemisphere and we are only just beginning flu season in the NH again.
Souther Hemisphere would have had a flu season during the time frame, but Australia and New Zealand basically went on major lockdown and prevented all travel into the country and even between regions during what would have been their flu season.
Not sure how many people in South America would have been tested for the flu, given, even in the US, many people avoided healthcare for fear of COVID.
Souther Hemisphere would have had a flu season during the time frame, but Australia and New Zealand basically went on major lockdown and prevented all travel into the country and even between regions during what would have been their flu season.
Not sure how many people in South America would have been tested for the flu, given, even in the US, many people avoided healthcare for fear of COVID.
This is what will be used to keep our mandated mitigation's and restrictions once Covid is no longer a threat. At least that will be the argument used and I fully expect certain groups to call for masks and social distancing to become truly the "new normal".
CDC published a paper on this in September, citing the 98%.
It is a comparison from 2019 to 2020, and not just in the US, but in 3 southern hemisphere countries.
For the US
During these same two periods, influenza activity decreased 98%, from a median of 19.34% to 0.33% of submitted respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza. Interseasonal circulation of influenza in the United States (May 17August 8, 2020; weeks 2132) is now at historical lows (weekly median 0.20% of samples testing positive in 2020 versus 2.35% in 2019, 1.04% in 2018 and 2.36% in 2017).
In the Southern Hemisphere countries of Australia, Chile, and South Africa only 33 influenza positive test results were detected among 60,031 specimens tested in Australia, 12 among 21,178 specimens tested in Chile, and six among 2,098 specimens tested in South Africa, for a total of 51 influenza positive specimens (0.06%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.04%0.08%) among 83,307 tested in these three countries during AprilJuly 2020 (weeks 1431). In contrast, during AprilJuly in 20172019, 24,512 specimens tested positive for influenza (13.7%, 95% CI = 13.6%13.9%) among 178,690 tested in these three countries
It is a comparison from 2019 to 2020, and not just in the US, but in 3 southern hemisphere countries.
For the US
During these same two periods, influenza activity decreased 98%, from a median of 19.34% to 0.33% of submitted respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza. Interseasonal circulation of influenza in the United States (May 17August 8, 2020; weeks 2132) is now at historical lows (weekly median 0.20% of samples testing positive in 2020 versus 2.35% in 2019, 1.04% in 2018 and 2.36% in 2017).
In the Southern Hemisphere countries of Australia, Chile, and South Africa only 33 influenza positive test results were detected among 60,031 specimens tested in Australia, 12 among 21,178 specimens tested in Chile, and six among 2,098 specimens tested in South Africa, for a total of 51 influenza positive specimens (0.06%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.04%0.08%) among 83,307 tested in these three countries during AprilJuly 2020 (weeks 1431). In contrast, during AprilJuly in 20172019, 24,512 specimens tested positive for influenza (13.7%, 95% CI = 13.6%13.9%) among 178,690 tested in these three countries
Since it's a yet over year comparison across both hemispheres, it's very meaningful.
skeptical. this is not how mother nature works usually...
It took 9 responses before the real reason is stated. The flu didn't just magically go away, it just gets classified as COVID. Hell, my 2 year old was running a fever last week so we took him to the pediatrician. They looked in his ears and throat and saw his throat was red. They swabbed it and it came back positive for strep, but even still, they wanted us to go get him a COVID test. Of course, it came back negative. Outside of a temp and a sore throat (which they knew the reason for), he had zero symptoms of COVID but they still wanted to test for it. It's crazy.Jbob04 said:
Well every sniffle and cough is reported as a Covid case, so what do you expect.
AgreeCapitol Ag said:
This is what will be used to keep our mandated mitigation's and restrictions once Covid is no longer a threat. At least that will be the argument used and I fully expect certain groups to call for masks and social distancing to become truly the "new normal".
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Moxley said:
Masks and social distancing work for more than just Covid. People are also washing their hands more and hand sanitizer is everywhere. Anyone calling for some sort of normal or massive flu season is likely wrong.
And this begs the question: How bad would Covid-19 have been for us if we had done nothing?
I honestly have no idea. I feel like consumers would've reacted in much the same way they have already in staying away from public places to limit their exposure as hospitalizations increased and deaths mounted.
Maybe our March/April wave would've been much worse and we would be mostly on the other side of it now?
I feel mostly certain that we would've had a ton more deaths as the front lines got swamped in the spring and patients and front line health workers needlessly died.
What's the issue here? A covid test doesn't require a spinal tap. It's a nose swab. I've taken dumps that took longer to finish than a covid test.aTm2004 said:It took 9 responses before the real reason is stated. The flu didn't just magically go away, it just gets classified as COVID. Hell, my 2 year old was running a fever last week so we took him to the pediatrician. They looked in his ears and throat and saw his throat was red. They swabbed it and it came back positive for strep, but even still, they wanted us to go get him a COVID test. Of course, it came back negative. Outside of a temp and a sore throat (which they knew the reason for), he had zero symptoms of COVID but they still wanted to test for it. It's crazy.Jbob04 said:
Well every sniffle and cough is reported as a Covid case, so what do you expect.
It would probably be this bad:
culdeus said:What's the issue here? A covid test doesn't require a spinal tap. It's a nose swab. I've taken dumps that took longer to finish than a covid test.aTm2004 said:It took 9 responses before the real reason is stated. The flu didn't just magically go away, it just gets classified as COVID. Hell, my 2 year old was running a fever last week so we took him to the pediatrician. They looked in his ears and throat and saw his throat was red. They swabbed it and it came back positive for strep, but even still, they wanted us to go get him a COVID test. Of course, it came back negative. Outside of a temp and a sore throat (which they knew the reason for), he had zero symptoms of COVID but they still wanted to test for it. It's crazy.Jbob04 said:
Well every sniffle and cough is reported as a Covid case, so what do you expect.
The issue is it's a 2 year old that had no COVID symptoms outside of fever and a sore throat, which the cause was known. It's crazy you don't see the issue nor do you find the request odd. You know, other things that have made people sick for years haven't just magically gone away with COVID. But hey, I guess you're fine with going to your PCP for a cold and him wanting to swab your dick as just because. It's only a swab. Drop em.
So, did your doctor count your son as Covid positive and report him to the health department?
He tested negative, so probably.
i took my 3yr old daughter to get a test today because someone in her class tested positive and they closed the school for two weeks saying they had all been playing together for days. her grandmother and great grandmother are always around and they both have heart issues... insurance covers it, why wouldnt i?
why do you have an issue with them wanting to run a simple test when there were clear symptoms of the virus?
why do you have an issue with them wanting to run a simple test when there were clear symptoms of the virus?
Public policy is being driven simply by positive tests and percent. Not who's really sick. Not hospitalizations. That's why I have a problem with testing.
would a positive strep pretty much rule out any other infection as the source of fever? When you get to a solution you don't solve a different way in hopes of getting a different answer.wtmartinaggie said:
i took my 3yr old daughter to get a test today because someone in her class tested positive and they closed the school for two weeks saying they had all been playing together for days. her grandmother and great grandmother are always around and they both have heart issues... insurance covers it, why wouldnt i?
why do you have an issue with them wanting to run a simple test when there were clear symptoms of the virus?
Ragoo said:would a positive strep pretty much rule out any other infection as the source of fever? When you get to a solution you don't solve a different way in hopes of getting a different answer.wtmartinaggie said:
i took my 3yr old daughter to get a test today because someone in her class tested positive and they closed the school for two weeks saying they had all been playing together for days. her grandmother and great grandmother are always around and they both have heart issues... insurance covers it, why wouldnt i?
why do you have an issue with them wanting to run a simple test when there were clear symptoms of the virus?
Very much this. Once again, all of the things people have gotten sick from for YEARS - generations even - haven't just magically gone away.
wtmartinaggie said:
why do you have an issue with them wanting to run a simple test when there were clear symptoms of the virus?
Because the symptoms were not unique to COVID and they had a positive test for strep, which coincidentally, has the same symptoms he was showing.
You would actually know if he was reported to the health department. They would contact you regarding quarantine and contact tracing.
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