Cases, Positivity Rate, and Hospitalizations are all TRENDING UPWARDS in Texas.

12,500 Views | 121 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by RGV AG
eric76
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TheMasterplan said:

I'd say do whatever you're going to do. The virus is here to stay so live your normal life. Get the virus. Survive. Get the antibodies.
And then a month or two later?

I had covid in early to mid May. A month later, I had no antibodies.
eric76
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AG
By the way, the other day they had to transport someone from my county to Odessa because there wasn't any available space in Amarillo for them.

Today they are waiting for a bed to become available at a hospital in Fort Worth to transport a patient there.
AgE Doc
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Keegan99 said:

Texas is a big state, so it would seem to be an error to view it in a homogeneous context.

Which areas are seeing the largest increases in hospitalization?

I'm not sure about hospitalization numbers in terms of county of origin. So many people are getting transferred to other hospitals other than their local hospital due to bed availability it makes that difficult to track. In order to try and localize things from a community prevalence of the infection these are some notable Texas counties plus any other Texas Counties that were over the 10% Positivity Rate.

County (Positivity Rate)
Anderson (12.6%)
Armstrong (13.3%)
Bailey (21.4%)
Baylor (15.6%)
Bexar (5.6%)
Bee (10.0%)
Bowie (11.3%)
Brazos (3.8%)
Cameron (10.1%)
Carson (18.4%)
Cass (10.1%)
Childress (26.9%)
Cochran (16.0%)
Coleman (10.2%)
Comanche (11.2%)
Concho (20.0%)
Cottle (32.0%)
Crosby (13.9%)
Dallam (11.1%)
Dallas (7.4%)
Dawson (17.2%)
DeWitt (10.4%)
Delta (12.8%)
Donley (20.6%)
Eastland (15.7%)
Ector (10.2%)
El Paso (11.3%)
Erath (10.7%)
Falls (10.7%)
Gaines (11.9%)
Garza (15.0%)
Gray (17.8%)
Hale (15.6%)
Hall (33.3%)
Hansford (31%)
Hardeman (52.2%)
Harris (Houston) (4.9%)
Henderson (11.5%)
Hidalgo (McAllen) (9.6%)
Houston (13.1%)
Howard (20.7%)
Hudspeth (15.1%)
Hutchinson (15.0%)
Kinney (19.2%)
LaSalle (14.5%)
Lamar (11.1%)
Lavaca (22.2%)
Leon (11.1%)
Live Oak 11.2%
Lubbock (12.1%)
Lynn (17.6%)
Maverick (14.5%)
McCulloch (17.3%)
McLennan (Waco) (5.9%)
Midland (4.5%)
Moore (17.7%)
Nacogdoches (7.2%)
Navarro (9.4%)
Oldham (18.6%)
Palo Pinto (14.7%)
Panola (17.6%)
Parker (10.2%)
Potter (10.8%)
Randall (13.4%)
Rusk (16.1%)
San Saba (11.6%)
Schleicher (17.4%)
Scurry (18.8%)
Shackelford (11.1%)
Shelby (10.2%)
Smith (10.0%)
Starr (12.1%)
Sutton (20.0%)
Swisher (13.3%)
Tarrant (Fort Worth) (8.6%)
Terry (16.9%)
Travis (Austin) (3.5%)
Tyler (9.3%)
Uvalde (10.5%)
Val Verde (14.9%)
Webb (13.4%)
Wichita (8.9%)
Wilbarger (18.8%)
Willacy (15.7%)
Yoakum (16.8%)
Young (13.4%)
Zavala (22.4%)
eric76
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AgE Doc said:

Keegan99 said:

Texas is a big state, so it would seem to be an error to view it in a homogeneous context.

Which areas are seeing the largest increases in hospitalization?

I'm not sure about hospitalization numbers in terms of county of origin. So many people are getting transferred to other hospitals other than their local hospital due to bed availability it makes that difficult to track. In order to try and localize things from a community prevalence of the infection these are some notable Texas counties plus any other Texas Counties that were over the 10% Positivity Rate.

County (Positivity Rate)

...

Hansford (31%)

...
Yikes!

Could this be the result of people not being tested until they have symptoms? Or is that the general rule even in the far lower positivity rate counties?
Ag for Life
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Geop84 said:

I thought I had seasonal allergies starting last Tuesday. Stayed home from the Florida game out of what I thought was an excess of caution. Monday I started running fevers, got tested yesterday in College Station at Baylor Scott and White through my doctor. Test came back this morning.

Get well soon! If Saban can beat it, so can you (just got the espn alert)
Fitch
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Little bit of a random anecdote here.

Caught up with one of my family members earlier today who oversees several million square feet of offices in five fairly geographically diverse markets (Dallas, Houston, LA, Denver and Atlanta). They get daily reporting of Covid cases for all companies in their buildings in those markets, which provides a reasonably real-time sample set for firms who have returned to the workplace.

Anyways, after the summer spikes settled down new cases towards the end of August and entire month of September were maybe 1 or 2 new cases a week in the full portfolio. Here in the last two work weeks they're getting reports of several a day.

Not terribly surprising, but found it interesting nonetheless.
Goose83
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After reading this thread, it's not hard to see why many of our resident MDs, several who have been down in the trenches fighting the good fight with this disease, no longer wish to post here. Nothing worse than being told by a bunch of layman that their hard learned expertise is invalid, because it offends their political point of view, and infringes upon "muh freedoms."

This forum was setup to be a place for the open exchange of valuable information from our resident doctors to us layman, not to validate one's point of view (if that's what you want, then go to F16 and join in the company of all your fellow William Wallaces). A famous man once said, "The Truth Shall Set You Free" - He didn't say anything about it making you happy.

And if that's make me a "Coronabro" or a "Branch Covidian", then so be it.
Sandman98
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Goose61 said:

After reading this thread, it's not hard to see why many of our resident MDs, several who have been down in the trenches fighting the good fight with this disease, no longer wish to post here. Nothing worse than being told by a bunch of layman that their hard learned expertise is invalid, because it offends their political point of view, and infringes upon "muh freedoms."

This forum was setup to be a place for the open exchange of valuable information from our resident doctors to us layman, not to validate one's point of view (if that's what you want, then go to F16 and join in the company of all your fellow William Wallaces). A famous man once said, "The Truth Shall Set You Free" - He didn't say anything about it making you happy.

And if that's make me a "Coronabro" or a "Branch Covidian", then so be it.


I just find the wide range of opinions from actual Doctors to be the reason I take all the info with a grain of salt. My friend is a hospitalist in Austin who successfully treated almost every patient he's seen and signed some death certs. He's not afraid to share the demos of the sickest and the dying and he thinks people are absolutely insane for not going about their daily lives who aren't SEVERELY at risk. He thinks the mask hysteria is pure insanity. So, because docs are human, the division among them doesn't appear to be much different than political tribalism. I know, SCieNcE.
BobCatDave
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I look at this one statistic and my conclusion is that we have the therapeutic protocols down and very few, even elderly, are dying. What am I missing?
"I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else." - Winston Churchill
NASAg03
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See Sweden.

EOT.

Protect the weak and vulnerable. Everyone else go back to normal to get immunity and get over this. End the fear and end these threads.
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
Pelayo
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AgE Doc said:

GAC06 said:

Those things shouldn't have anything to do with high schools or college sports


High school athletes go home to parents and grand parents that can be high risk and sit in class rooms with teachers some of whom are at risk.

If we don't distance or mask and case numbers get too high they will cancel games/seasons and suspend in person Learning.

I don't want that to happen, but if we allow things to become a repeat of July then that will happen.

The time to make sure we are doing the LITTLE THINGS to try and prevent that is NOW... not in 3 or 4 weeks!
This reasoning is the fundamental bone I have to pick with our public health response. It's not reasonable to shut down swathes of productive society to protect a minority of the population. The net harm is going to be greater than if we allowed life to go on and depend on the minority of individuals to make the best decisions for themselves in terms of work or exposure to relatives.

The first three months were understandable to begin to get a grip on a novel disease. Now there's no excuse.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
coolerguy12
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Goose61 said:

After reading this thread, it's not hard to see why many of our resident MDs, several who have been down in the trenches fighting the good fight with this disease, no longer wish to post here. Nothing worse than being told by a bunch of layman that their hard learned expertise is invalid, because it offends their political point of view, and infringes upon "muh freedoms."

This forum was setup to be a place for the open exchange of valuable information from our resident doctors to us layman, not to validate one's point of view (if that's what you want, then go to F16 and join in the company of all your fellow William Wallaces). A famous man once said, "The Truth Shall Set You Free" - He didn't say anything about it making you happy.

And if that's make me a "Coronabro" or a "Branch Covidian", then so be it.


Here's my problem with this statement. Doctors see the worst of the worst so their world view is going to be skewed by that. For example, if doctors posted on this board every time they dealt with a gun shot wound or stabbing victim and tried to extrapolate that data out to the rest of society we would all be walking around in bulletproof vests. I'm not saying we don't need to listen to doctors, but it's a little dishonest to only listen to the doctors who confirm your worldview and then accuse the rest of us just trying to score political points.

Most of us were ok with 2-4 weeks to flatten the curve and then we watched the goalposts shift over and over again and got fed up with it. As soon as Harris county started talking about positivity rate I knew we were screwed. The testing is way too inconsistent for that to be a relevant metric.
WoMD
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eric76 said:

TheMasterplan said:

I'd say do whatever you're going to do. The virus is here to stay so live your normal life. Get the virus. Survive. Get the antibodies.
And then a month or two later?

I had covid in early to mid May. A month later, I had no antibodies.

I'm pretty sure the antibody issue has been addressed months ago, and is no longer a significant argument for lack of immune protection.

But stick with what works, I say! Especially if that's all you got...
dermdoc
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Pelayo said:

AgE Doc said:

GAC06 said:

Those things shouldn't have anything to do with high schools or college sports


High school athletes go home to parents and grand parents that can be high risk and sit in class rooms with teachers some of whom are at risk.

If we don't distance or mask and case numbers get too high they will cancel games/seasons and suspend in person Learning.

I don't want that to happen, but if we allow things to become a repeat of July then that will happen.

The time to make sure we are doing the LITTLE THINGS to try and prevent that is NOW... not in 3 or 4 weeks!
This reasoning is the fundamental bone I have to pick with our public health response. It's not reasonable to shut down swathes of productive society to protect a minority of the population. The net harm is going to be greater than if we allowed life to go on and depend on the minority of individuals to make the best decisions for themselves in terms of work or exposure to relatives.

The first three months were understandable to begin to get a grip on a novel disease. Now there's no excuse.


Agree. And the docs I know in real life agree with this also. Except most think we pretty much knew what was going on after a month.

In my forty five years of medicine we have never handled a respiratory virus with an IFR of .3% this way. And it was pretty obvious after a month that is where the IFR was going to end up.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
WoMD
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coolerguy12 said:

Goose61 said:

After reading this thread, it's not hard to see why many of our resident MDs, several who have been down in the trenches fighting the good fight with this disease, no longer wish to post here. Nothing worse than being told by a bunch of layman that their hard learned expertise is invalid, because it offends their political point of view, and infringes upon "muh freedoms."

This forum was setup to be a place for the open exchange of valuable information from our resident doctors to us layman, not to validate one's point of view (if that's what you want, then go to F16 and join in the company of all your fellow William Wallaces). A famous man once said, "The Truth Shall Set You Free" - He didn't say anything about it making you happy.

And if that's make me a "Coronabro" or a "Branch Covidian", then so be it.


Here's my problem with this statement. Doctors see the worst of the worst so their world view is going to be skewed by that. For example, if doctors posted on this board every time they dealt with a gun shot wound or stabbing victim and tried to extrapolate that data out to the rest of society we would all be walking around in bulletproof vests. I'm not saying we don't need to listen to doctors, but it's a little dishonest to only listen to the doctors who confirm your worldview and then accuse the rest of us just trying to score political points.

Most of us were ok with 2-4 weeks to flatten the curve and then we watched the goalposts shift over and over again and got fed up with it. As soon as Harris county started talking about positivity rate I knew we were screwed. The testing is way too inconsistent for that to be a relevant metric.

I agree with this 1000%.

No worse metric to use for reality than to only see the worst case scenarios and extrapolate to the entirety of the population. The data we now have available obviously does not support this.

Literally the exact same thing BLM is using to say that all cops are racist and are hunting down black people in the streets. That people are still buying into both examples of manipulation, despite more and more proof proving the opposite, is incredible to see. And depressing.

You have to use a combination of some common sense, a complete and accurate data set, and medical perspective to come a conclusion with what we're seeing. Unfortunately, we're only getting the latter, and even that has been skewed by only the extreme worst case scenarios in how we are interpreting (meaning the msm and politicians) what we're up against.
bay fan
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cc_ag92 said:

Thank you for sharing your perspective. This board used to have quite a few doctors and scientists participating. For some reason, most of them aren't very active anymore.
Because NOT doctors scream them down and it's apparent this board no longer is willing to listen to people with the education to provide real advice. It's pointless.
bay fan
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KlinkerAg11 said:

And to add to what I said, my grandparents watch a lot of news and won't leave their house or hang out with us until public messaging says it's ok.

That's why I ask, if they get a vaccine will the public health officials tell him it's safe? I sure hope so.
Your grandparents are motivated to continue life. Our older generation is incredibly valuable to some of us, while it's obvious those that think older people's lives are disposable so they don't need to inconvenience their own life styles. I look forward until the day they are able to hold their new great grandchild. Congratulations.
eric76
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WoMD said:

eric76 said:

TheMasterplan said:

I'd say do whatever you're going to do. The virus is here to stay so live your normal life. Get the virus. Survive. Get the antibodies.
And then a month or two later?

I had covid in early to mid May. A month later, I had no antibodies.

I'm pretty sure the antibody issue has been addressed months ago, and is no longer a significant argument for lack of immune protection.

But stick with what works, I say! Especially if that's all you got...
Huh?

We may have talked about antibodies months before, but some people clearly never got the message and thinks that we should get the virus and then go "live your normal life" if you have antibodies. I merely pointed out that having the virus doesn't mean that you will have antibodies or that they will last very long. The entire premise to what I was responding to is very flawed.

There is also t-cell immunity but no indication how long that will last.

So I don't understand at all what point you are trying to make. Can you elaborate?
WoMD
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eric76 said:

WoMD said:

eric76 said:

TheMasterplan said:

I'd say do whatever you're going to do. The virus is here to stay so live your normal life. Get the virus. Survive. Get the antibodies.
And then a month or two later?

I had covid in early to mid May. A month later, I had no antibodies.

I'm pretty sure the antibody issue has been addressed months ago, and is no longer a significant argument for lack of immune protection.

But stick with what works, I say! Especially if that's all you got...
Huh?

We may have talked about antibodies months before, but some people clearly never got the message and thinks that we should get the virus and then go "live your normal life" if you have antibodies. I merely pointed out that having the virus doesn't mean that you will have antibodies or that they will last very long. The entire premise to what I was responding to is very flawed.

There is also t-cell immunity but no indication how long that will last.

So I don't understand at all what point you are trying to make. Can you elaborate?

My point is, not having antibodies after getting the virus does not mean you don't have immune protection. So your statement that you don't have antibodies does not mean that the example stated about getting the virus and living your life is somehow incorrect.

Duration of immune protection is still unknown, you are correct, but stating that not having antibodies as if that makes a point is proving some ignorance on the subject.
TheMasterplan
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What about the doctors in this thread that have said it's ridiculous to treat the virus with an IFR of 0.3% this way and ridiculous to force the vast majority to change behavior to protect a small minority.

What's your response to those doctors?
WoMD
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bay fan said:

KlinkerAg11 said:

And to add to what I said, my grandparents watch a lot of news and won't leave their house or hang out with us until public messaging says it's ok.

That's why I ask, if they get a vaccine will the public health officials tell him it's safe? I sure hope so.
Your grandparents are motivated to continue life. Our older generation is incredibly valuable to some of us, while it's obvious those that think older people's lives are disposable so they don't need to inconvenience their own life styles. I look forward until the day they are able to hold their new great grandchild. Congratulations.

Many elderly are suffering due to having no interaction with these loved ones. I guarantee you, for the mental health harm this is putting on the youth in this country, it is also very harmful in how it is impacting those we are screaming to protect. I'm curious how many elderly are dying before they would have simply because of the depression of being alone and losing any semblance of purpose and connection to humanity.
WoMD
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TheMasterplan said:

What about the doctors in this thread that have said it's ridiculous to treat the virus with an IFR of 0.3% this way and ridiculous to force the vast majority to change behavior to protect a small minority.

What's your response to those doctors?

Only those on the "front lines" should have an opinion of how to fight a war that impacts close to zero percent of the population. Other doctors should shut their mouths and know their places. They just don't understand, so shouldn't have an opinion anyway.
eric76
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WoMD said:

eric76 said:

WoMD said:

eric76 said:

TheMasterplan said:

I'd say do whatever you're going to do. The virus is here to stay so live your normal life. Get the virus. Survive. Get the antibodies.
And then a month or two later?

I had covid in early to mid May. A month later, I had no antibodies.

I'm pretty sure the antibody issue has been addressed months ago, and is no longer a significant argument for lack of immune protection.

But stick with what works, I say! Especially if that's all you got...
Huh?

We may have talked about antibodies months before, but some people clearly never got the message and thinks that we should get the virus and then go "live your normal life" if you have antibodies. I merely pointed out that having the virus doesn't mean that you will have antibodies or that they will last very long. The entire premise to what I was responding to is very flawed.

There is also t-cell immunity but no indication how long that will last.

So I don't understand at all what point you are trying to make. Can you elaborate?

My point is, not having antibodies after getting the virus does not mean you don't have immune protection. So your statement that you don't have antibodies does not mean that the example stated about getting the virus and living your life is somehow incorrect.

Duration of immune protection is still unknown, you are correct, but stating that not having antibodies as if that makes a point is proving some ignorance on the subject.
I was very clearly responding to someone who thinks that we need to get covid so that we WILL have antibodies and you CAN then go about your life normally.

I presented a counterexample of someone who has had covid and had no antibodies a month later. By itself, this is sufficient to logically prove that the statement to which I was responding is wrong.

None of us know how long to expect immunity, but it seems that some people are being reinfected after recovering from covid. Just this week Lancet had a report of a case of someone who had it twice -- the first time In April and then again in June. The second time was definitely more severe, as well.

So much for being able to live my life normally after having had covid. Anyone who thinks we should get covid so we can get it over with definitely needs to be challenged about this notion.
KlinkerAg11
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Appreciate the kind words.

Grandpa is 91 and from the greatest generation.

Really looking forward to having a meal with them again.
Fenrir
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What is the percentage of people that have had the virus twice out of the entire population of people that have had the virus? And do you think such a percentage is meaningful for policy discussion?
Alta
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Problem there is every "front lines" doctor I know in real life don't agree with the shutdown of society and believe they have gotten incredibly good at treating Covid. I choose to believe people I know in real life versus people on message boards who I have no way of knowing their credentials, etc.
eric76
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Fenrir said:

What is the percentage of people that have had the virus twice out of the entire population of people that have had the virus? And do you think such a percentage is meaningful for policy discussion?
Which policies are you talking about?

The problem with reinfections is that it can apparently be pretty difficult to determine who are actually reinfected. If they have blood samples from both infections and can genetically sequence them to compare the viruses from both infections.

Also, coronaviruses are believed to have relatively short periods of immunity. Two coronaviruses, I think, may cause a common cold. Having had the common cold from them once seems to offer protection for as little as a few months.

Current CDC guidelines are that if you had covid-19 more than three months earlier and have an exposure to someone with covid-19 of at least 15 minutes at less than six feet, then you should quarantine for 14 days.

From https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/quarantine.html
Quote:

CDC recommends that all people, whether or not they have had COVID-19, take steps to prevent getting and spreading COVID-19. Wash hands regularly, stay at least 6 feet away from others whenever possible, and wear masks.

...

Who needs to quarantine?

People who have been in close contact with someone who has COVID-19excluding people who have had COVID-19 within the past 3 months.

People who have tested positive for COVID-19 do not need to quarantine or get tested again for up to 3 months as long as they do not develop symptoms again. People who develop symptoms again within 3 months of their first bout of COVID-19 may need to be tested again if there is no other cause identified for their symptoms.

What counts as close contact?

  • You were within 6 feet of someone who has COVID-19 for a total of 15 minutes or more
  • You provided care at home to someone who is sick with COVID-19
  • You had direct physical contact with the person (hugged or kissed them)
  • You shared eating or drinking utensils
  • They sneezed, coughed, or somehow got respiratory droplets on you

My niece has covid and I do have regular contact with her at the office (family business), but being as those contacts tend to be short and often from at least six feet, especially this year, so I'm not covered by the above guidelines. However, as a reasonable precaution, I am avoiding contact with the elderly and with others who are at greater risk.
Fenrir
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I don't see evidence supporting government restrictions on gatherings and businesses. Do you think that one "study" highlighting what seems to be one case of reinfection that had a worse second infection is meaningful in anyway to the discussion of how the overall population needs to act with respect to the virus?
coolerguy12
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TheMasterplan said:

What about the doctors in this thread that have said it's ridiculous to treat the virus with an IFR of 0.3% this way and ridiculous to force the vast majority to change behavior to protect a small minority.

What's your response to those doctors?


Well those doctors are obviously wrong. Just like the scientists that speak out against climate change.
TheMasterplan
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WoMD said:

TheMasterplan said:

What about the doctors in this thread that have said it's ridiculous to treat the virus with an IFR of 0.3% this way and ridiculous to force the vast majority to change behavior to protect a small minority.

What's your response to those doctors?

Only those on the "front lines" should have an opinion of how to fight a war that impacts close to zero percent of the population. Other doctors should shut their mouths and know their places. They just don't understand, so shouldn't have an opinion anyway.

Exactly.

All the "experts" we are supposed to listen to are set for life financially. They don't have to worry about jobs, anxiety, retirement, etc. A lot are on public teat at universities. They don't have to worry about their life trend being altered permanently. It's easy for old retired people to lecture and preach to us. You're set. I'm not.

We do need to listen to them but there is no textbook that they read from college that says, "ok - in this situation, do this. In this situation do this." It's all 100% a judgement call. Everything is. Fauci is 100% set financially for life. Any decision made by the government has no effect on him. That is fact.

Those preaching lockdown have no moral high ground and need to take responsibility for the lack of cancer screenings, massive layoffs and mental anxiety for those that 99.98% likely to survive the virus.

eric76
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Fenrir said:

I don't see evidence supporting government restrictions on gatherings and businesses. Do you think that one "study" highlighting what seems to be one case of reinfection that had a worse second infection is meaningful in anyway to the discussion of how the overall population needs to act with respect to the virus?
Who said that this should drive government restrictions?

I've been opposed to government restrictions from day 1 even thought I do understand why some felt they were necessary. It was clear from day 1 that for a couple of weeks of shutdown could not possibly be be enough.

I am very much, as always, in favor of personal responsibility to do what you need to do.
FlyRod
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AgE Doc and Marcus Aurelius, thank you for your contributions on this board. Along with Reveille they have been insightful, useful and clarifying. It's easy to feel discouraged here. Y'alls good people.
Phat32
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The media is the problem with all of this.

The fact that we are still doing this charade for a virus with a 99%+ survival rate is laughable. We deserve the leaders we have.
eric76
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yukmonkey said:

The media is the problem with all of this.

The fact that we are still doing this charade for a virus with a 99%+ survival rate is laughable. We deserve the leaders we have.
A virus that is filling up the larger regional hospitals all over the place?

The other day around here, they had to transport a patient to a bigger hospital about 350 miles away in Odessa because the bigger hospitals in Amarillo were full.

Yesterday, they were waiting for a bed to open up at a hospital in Fort Worth to airlift another case from up here to that hospital. I never have heard whether or not they got him down there yesterday.

It's hardly a charade.
Phat32
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So because one region is having a tougher time, that makes it the same reality for all regions?

Looking forward to my wildfire water drops in Dallas since California has some too.
 
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