WHO publishes Dr. John P. Ioannidis estimating median IFR of 0.05% for age < 70

5,311 Views | 42 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Keller6Ag91
Keegan99
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zebros_95
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Cliff notes by any chance?
Aston94
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zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%
zebros_95
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Thanks, reread title after posting.

Margarita on the rocks tasting good.

Nice to see the information that many of us have actually taken the the time to find since WAY back continues to be proven over and over again.

I guess following the science is different than saying "follow the science"
AggieYankee1
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Aston94 said:

zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%


Now do... what happens if you give it to your dad or mom (45-55) who has HTN or had diabetes for the past 10 years...

I'll wait...

Again this is not about those are that young and healthy - even though they have died from this as well... this is about the young and healthy being so selfish about their Outcomes they forget - they give it to those who cannot afford to get it.

To quote trump "this is a killer"

210,000 dead and counting.... how many dead bodies does it take for it to matter?
zebros_95
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and Keegan99 you have been on point since the beginning. I made it a mission of mine to look at data from the beginning (and I mean back in November when my company first started sending emails) and you have right on from the start.

I dont so the tweet machine so I appreciate the data and insight.

Good job!
RandyAg98
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The vast majority of us should live our lives and be able to make a living, and those at high risk, like those you mentioned, should take precautions.
aggietony2010
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Transferring an illness to a vulnerable relative is a fact of life. You don't shut down normal life because of it. You protect the vulnerable.
HowdyTexasAggies
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AggieYankee1 said:

Aston94 said:

zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%


Now do... what happens if you give it to your dad or mom (45-55) who has HTN or had diabetes for the past 10 years...

I'll wait...

Again this is not about those are that young and healthy - even though they have died from this as well... this is about the young and healthy being so selfish about their Outcomes they forget - they give it to those who cannot afford to get it.

To quote trump "this is a killer"

210,000 dead and counting.... how many dead bodies does it take for it to matter?


The fact that you are still unable to rationalize the greater negative impact on millions more than the bogus 210k is telling.
The_Fox
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AggieYankee1 said:

Aston94 said:

zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%


Now do... what happens if you give it to your dad or mom (45-55) who has HTN or had diabetes for the past 10 years...

I'll wait...

Again this is not about those are that young and healthy - even though they have died from this as well... this is about the young and healthy being so selfish about their Outcomes they forget - they give it to those who cannot afford to get it.

To quote trump "this is a killer"

210,000 dead and counting.... how many dead bodies does it take for it to matter?
Your mom and dad are 45-55? How old are you?

I am 46 and have HTN. The rona was like having bad allergies for a few days. Not even close to as bad as the flu.

If you loved one is under 55, the odds are heavily in their favor. And they are going to get it.
AggieYankee1
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The_Fox said:

AggieYankee1 said:

Aston94 said:

zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%


Now do... what happens if you give it to your dad or mom (45-55) who has HTN or had diabetes for the past 10 years...

I'll wait...

Again this is not about those are that young and healthy - even though they have died from this as well... this is about the young and healthy being so selfish about their Outcomes they forget - they give it to those who cannot afford to get it.

To quote trump "this is a killer"

210,000 dead and counting.... how many dead bodies does it take for it to matter?
Your mom and dad are 45-55? How old are you?

I am 46 and have HTN. The rona was like having bad allergies for a few days. Not even close to as bad as the flu.

If you loved one is under 55, the odds are heavily in their favor. And they are going to get it.


I'm very happy for you and your family! Sadly there are 210,000 other families in the past 7 months who did not have the same result and according to trump...

This could 2.2 million people if we just let it burn - and the flu kills 100,000 with a vaccine...

Soooo...let's all stick together and wear the mask and stop underestimating/downplaying how dangerous this is.

K?
NASAg03
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aggietony2010 said:

Transferring an illness to a vulnerable relative is a fact of life. You don't shut down normal life because of it. You protect the vulnerable.

Do us all a favor and permanently disconnect your internet. This forum would be better for it.
Exactly. You have many options to protect the vulnerable loved ones in your life (until covid is over is a vaccine is available):

  • Isolate them and only interact via plate glass or virtual
  • Isolate with them until covid is over
  • Isolate for 14 days until you want to see them in person
  • Testing negative immediately prior to visiting them

But to expect everyone else to shut down, shelter in place, isolate, quarantine, and wear masks to protect YOUR loved ones? That's selfish, unreasonable, and removes far greater years of life expectancy vs. a virus with an average death the same as the average life expectancy in the US.
Mike Shaw - Class of '03
dermdoc
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So in March when I predicted an IFR of .3-.6% I was spot on?
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
AggieYankee1
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NASAg03 said:

aggietony2010 said:

Transferring an illness to a vulnerable relative is a fact of life. You don't shut down normal life because of it. You protect the vulnerable.

Do us all a favor and permanently disconnect your internet. This forum would be better for it.
Exactly. You have many options to protect the vulnerable loved ones in your life (until covid is over is a vaccine is available):

  • Isolate them and only interact via plate glass or virtual
  • Isolate with them until covid is over
  • Isolate for 14 days until you want to see them in person
  • Testing negative immediately prior to visiting them

But to expect everyone else to shut down, shelter in place, isolate, quarantine, and wear masks to protect YOUR loved ones? That's selfish, unreasonable, and removes far greater years of life expectancy vs. a virus with an average death the same as the average life expectancy in the US.


So if you live with your parents while you are in high school - interact with them through glass?

I don't get it
Keegan99
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dermdoc said:

So in March when I predicted an IFR of .3-.6% I was spot on?


Not bad for a pimple popper.
Beat40
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AggieYankee1 said:

NASAg03 said:

aggietony2010 said:

Transferring an illness to a vulnerable relative is a fact of life. You don't shut down normal life because of it. You protect the vulnerable.

Do us all a favor and permanently disconnect your internet. This forum would be better for it.
Exactly. You have many options to protect the vulnerable loved ones in your life (until covid is over is a vaccine is available):

  • Isolate them and only interact via plate glass or virtual
  • Isolate with them until covid is over
  • Isolate for 14 days until you want to see them in person
  • Testing negative immediately prior to visiting them

But to expect everyone else to shut down, shelter in place, isolate, quarantine, and wear masks to protect YOUR loved ones? That's selfish, unreasonable, and removes far greater years of life expectancy vs. a virus with an average death the same as the average life expectancy in the US.


So if you live with your parents while you are in high school - interact with them through glass?

I don't get it


What if the 45-55 year olds don't want the world to stop for their kids when the the 45-55 year olds have a 99.95% survival rate (hint, the survival rate does include HTN and diabetes)?

You want to call those 45-55 year olds selfish? What if they are willing to take the risk?

You are right, this isn't just about the young and healthy. The little older population gets a say in the way things work also.
dermdoc
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Keegan99 said:

dermdoc said:

So in March when I predicted an IFR of .3-.6% I was spot on?


Not bad for a pimple popper.
Compare my predictions vs Fauci and Birx.

Weird
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two93ags
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I wish I had any hope this kind of data would matter.

We are doing this so backwards IMO. Which is also worth jack squat.

HowdyTexasAggies
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AggieYankee1 said:

NASAg03 said:

aggietony2010 said:

Transferring an illness to a vulnerable relative is a fact of life. You don't shut down normal life because of it. You protect the vulnerable.

Do us all a favor and permanently disconnect your internet. This forum would be better for it.
Exactly. You have many options to protect the vulnerable loved ones in your life (until covid is over is a vaccine is available):

  • Isolate them and only interact via plate glass or virtual
  • Isolate with them until covid is over
  • Isolate for 14 days until you want to see them in person
  • Testing negative immediately prior to visiting them

But to expect everyone else to shut down, shelter in place, isolate, quarantine, and wear masks to protect YOUR loved ones? That's selfish, unreasonable, and removes far greater years of life expectancy vs. a virus with an average death the same as the average life expectancy in the US.


So if you live with your parents while you are in high school - interact with them through glass?

I don't get it



You don't get that many parents would give their own life for their kids well being, and in the case of COVID, their mental well being is more at stake than physical?

MouthBQ98
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The economic contraction will do lasting damage, because it has compounding effects that last well into the future. Everyone dies. It's just a matter of how and when. The key is to try to minimize needless suffering, and you can create vast suffering with poor socioeconomic policies.
ORAggieFan
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AggieYankee1 said:

The_Fox said:

AggieYankee1 said:

Aston94 said:

zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%


Now do... what happens if you give it to your dad or mom (45-55) who has HTN or had diabetes for the past 10 years...

I'll wait...

Again this is not about those are that young and healthy - even though they have died from this as well... this is about the young and healthy being so selfish about their Outcomes they forget - they give it to those who cannot afford to get it.

To quote trump "this is a killer"

210,000 dead and counting.... how many dead bodies does it take for it to matter?
Your mom and dad are 45-55? How old are you?

I am 46 and have HTN. The rona was like having bad allergies for a few days. Not even close to as bad as the flu.

If you loved one is under 55, the odds are heavily in their favor. And they are going to get it.


I'm very happy for you and your family! Sadly there are 210,000 other families in the past 7 months who did not have the same result and according to trump...

This could 2.2 million people if we just let it burn - and the flu kills 100,000 with a vaccine...

Soooo...let's all stick together and wear the mask and stop underestimating/downplaying how dangerous this is.

K?

How many of those 210k would be dead anyway? Why is the average age of death for Covid higher than the avg lifespan here in the US? Why don't you care about the massive negative affects such as child/spousal abuse, depression, addiction, delays in chemo and cancer diagnosis and so much more? Why do you care so little about the long term affects this will have on the youth from lack of education to social interaction to sports? Why do you not follow the science on masks or anything the CDC, WHO and Fauci all said up until mid March (with no new studies)? Why is Sweden not living a "new normal" but just living normal?

Wake up. Stop living in paranoia. Live life. See through the politics.
ANSC Ag
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AggieYankee1 said:

The_Fox said:

AggieYankee1 said:

Aston94 said:

zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%


Now do... what happens if you give it to your dad or mom (45-55) who has HTN or had diabetes for the past 10 years...

I'll wait...

Again this is not about those are that young and healthy - even though they have died from this as well... this is about the young and healthy being so selfish about their Outcomes they forget - they give it to those who cannot afford to get it.

To quote trump "this is a killer"

210,000 dead and counting.... how many dead bodies does it take for it to matter?
Your mom and dad are 45-55? How old are you?

I am 46 and have HTN. The rona was like having bad allergies for a few days. Not even close to as bad as the flu.

If you loved one is under 55, the odds are heavily in their favor. And they are going to get it.


I'm very happy for you and your family! Sadly there are 210,000 other families in the past 7 months who did not have the same result and according to trump...

This could 2.2 million people if we just let it burn - and the flu kills 100,000 with a vaccine...

Soooo...let's all stick together and wear the mask and stop underestimating/downplaying how dangerous this is.

K?
250k die annually from medical accidents. Why are the doctors killing us? I'm confused. Should we shelter in place so doctors can't kill us?

As an aside, nature doesn't like to be meddled with. Please redirect your anger toward those who created a disease in a lab. This isn't something we should have even had to deal with.
WoMD
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Isolation and inability to work, and struggling with financial challenges because of it, has been a more concerning harm to my mom than covid would be. She's struggling right now, mostly mentally, and I guarantee you more people who aren't young and healthy are being harmed by the solution than the disease.

K?
AggieYankee1
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ANSC Ag said:

AggieYankee1 said:

The_Fox said:

AggieYankee1 said:

Aston94 said:

zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%


Now do... what happens if you give it to your dad or mom (45-55) who has HTN or had diabetes for the past 10 years...

I'll wait...

Again this is not about those are that young and healthy - even though they have died from this as well... this is about the young and healthy being so selfish about their Outcomes they forget - they give it to those who cannot afford to get it.

To quote trump "this is a killer"

210,000 dead and counting.... how many dead bodies does it take for it to matter?
Your mom and dad are 45-55? How old are you?

I am 46 and have HTN. The rona was like having bad allergies for a few days. Not even close to as bad as the flu.

If you loved one is under 55, the odds are heavily in their favor. And they are going to get it.


I'm very happy for you and your family! Sadly there are 210,000 other families in the past 7 months who did not have the same result and according to trump...

This could 2.2 million people if we just let it burn - and the flu kills 100,000 with a vaccine...

Soooo...let's all stick together and wear the mask and stop underestimating/downplaying how dangerous this is.

K?
250k die annually from medical accidents. Why are the doctors killing us? I'm confused. Should we shelter in place so doctors can't kill us?

As an aside, nature doesn't like to be meddled with. Please redirect your anger toward those who created a disease in a lab. This isn't something we should have even had to deal with.


Please provide a cite - to where doctors kill 250,000 people a year... I promise you there is not one.

Also - In reference to the lab - when is Trump gonna start punishing China for the virus? Doesn't he have a great relationship with Xi - or are they the great enemy still - or what...
ANSC Ag
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html
Keegan99
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Quote:

Please provide a cite - to where doctors kill 250,000 people a year... I promise you there is not one.



https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

"A recent Johns Hopkins study claims more than 250,000 people in the U.S. die every year from medical errors. Other reports claim the numbers to be as high as 440,000."
Keegan99
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The actual release from Johns Hopkins.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2016/05/03/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death/

Quote:

Analyzing medical death rate data over an eight-year period, Johns Hopkins patient safety experts have calculated that more than 250,000 deaths per year are due to medical error in the U.S. Their figure, published May 3 in The BMJ,


So yes, there is very clearly a reputable study of the sort you "promised" did not exist.
ANSC Ag
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Go to bed youngster. You're either a kid that's being home schooled because your city is locked down or a bot. Either way, get some sleep. Tomorrow will be another busy day.
Aston94
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AggieYankee1 said:

Aston94 said:

zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%


Now do... what happens if you give it to your dad or mom (45-55) who has HTN or had diabetes for the past 10 years...

I'll wait...

Again this is not about those are that young and healthy - even though they have died from this as well... this is about the young and healthy being so selfish about their Outcomes they forget - they give it to those who cannot afford to get it.

To quote trump "this is a killer"

210,000 dead and counting.... how many dead bodies does it take for it to matter?
Uh, I gave the synopsis of the study, chief. I didn't "do" the study.

I certainly didn't say that the dead bodies don't matter or that I don't take the virus seriously. But maybe you should read the study too.

If you want to discuss the virus like an adult maybe you should comment like an adult.
Capitol Ag
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AggieYankee1 said:

The_Fox said:

AggieYankee1 said:

Aston94 said:

zebros_95 said:

Cliff notes by any chance?
If you are under 70 the chance of surviving Covid is 99.95%


Now do... what happens if you give it to your dad or mom (45-55) who has HTN or had diabetes for the past 10 years...

I'll wait...

Again this is not about those are that young and healthy - even though they have died from this as well... this is about the young and healthy being so selfish about their Outcomes they forget - they give it to those who cannot afford to get it.

To quote trump "this is a killer"

210,000 dead and counting.... how many dead bodies does it take for it to matter?
Your mom and dad are 45-55? How old are you?

I am 46 and have HTN. The rona was like having bad allergies for a few days. Not even close to as bad as the flu.

If you loved one is under 55, the odds are heavily in their favor. And they are going to get it.


I'm very happy for you and your family! Sadly there are 210,000 other families in the past 7 months who did not have the same result and according to trump...

This could 2.2 million people if we just let it burn - and the flu kills 100,000 with a vaccine...

Soooo...let's all stick together and wear the mask and stop underestimating/downplaying how dangerous this is.

K?
What you do not get is that nobody is "downplaying it" nor is this the goal here. It's to get to the facts. The fact is that a lot of policy decisions are being made based on "how dangerous" this virus is, when, in fact the policy is overkill and grid locking and hurting more than the virus is. I am in education. There is no tangible reason to quarantine for 10-14 days if you test negative. Teachers and students who have been detirmined to have been in contact with those testing positive but themselves are not positive are being pulled out of class at a constant rate all in an effort to be 'cautious" when in fact a few days at most with a couple of tests should be enough to allow those people back. The online classes are a joke and kids' educations are suffering.

I do not think the point here is to tell people to throw away their masks. But to question the policy? There is absolutely nothing wrong with questioning mask mandates, or any of the mandates for that matter. And there is something strange regarding those in favor of masking. I watched 60 Minutes and a doctor was asked point blank what she would rather have, a vaccine or a mask. She stated, "whithout a doubt, a mask". What?!?! The reported did ask why but she honestly evaded the question by stating the best way to lower the spread is through social distancing and wearing masks. Ok, ya, WHEN THERE ISN'T A FREAKING VACCINE, fine! But wouldn't a vaccine eliminate the need for social distancing and masks in the first place? He never probed her hard enough to see why she evaded the answer. And you wonder why we question this crap. I get that conspiracy stuff is a little far fetched but in this case, when there are many out there worried we may try to keep masking mandates even after Covid id gone, answers like her's make you wonder if the strategy isn't about eliminating the virus at all, but something else entirely. There should be 0 need for masks or any mandates when there is a vaccine.
Knucklesammich
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AggieYankee1 said:

NASAg03 said:

aggietony2010 said:

Transferring an illness to a vulnerable relative is a fact of life. You don't shut down normal life because of it. You protect the vulnerable.

Do us all a favor and permanently disconnect your internet. This forum would be better for it.
Exactly. You have many options to protect the vulnerable loved ones in your life (until covid is over is a vaccine is available):

  • Isolate them and only interact via plate glass or virtual
  • Isolate with them until covid is over
  • Isolate for 14 days until you want to see them in person
  • Testing negative immediately prior to visiting them

But to expect everyone else to shut down, shelter in place, isolate, quarantine, and wear masks to protect YOUR loved ones? That's selfish, unreasonable, and removes far greater years of life expectancy vs. a virus with an average death the same as the average life expectancy in the US.


So if you live with your parents while you are in high school - interact with them through glass?

I don't get it
I'm 46 and have 3 kids (elem. and jr. high)...My mom wears a mask when she sees them and we maintain social distance (she is 74 and has mild COPD), my dad is 75 (Cancer and some heart issues), he stays socially distanced all the time.

He told me early stage, "If I get this, I'm probably a goner but if y'all shut down we, all of us will starve. You have to live your life so I'll wear a mask and see y'all at a distance"


My concern in catching it from my kids is basically zero. I caught H1N1 from my oldest when she was a toddler,and just like virtually every other parent you learn just how big a germ bomb kids are and act accordingly.

Could I get it and die? Of course, there is a very small chance but there a ton of other things that can and will get me at some point...this is a zero sum game. Hunkering down in a bunker is survival, it is not living.

I'll do my part to mitigate but refuse to shut down living because of fear of the unknown or perceived lack of control is crazy to me.
J. Walter Weatherman
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Keegan99 said:

The actual release from Johns Hopkins.

https://hub.jhu.edu/2016/05/03/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death/

Quote:

Analyzing medical death rate data over an eight-year period, Johns Hopkins patient safety experts have calculated that more than 250,000 deaths per year are due to medical error in the U.S. Their figure, published May 3 in The BMJ,


So yes, there is very clearly a reputable study of the sort you "promised" did not exist.


Incredible. The ability of covid panickers to ignore basic data, statistics, probability and general everyday risk as the actual facts have been discovered has been unbelievable.
jenn96
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I'm 46 and in good health except for being somewhat overweight. I will gladly risk Covid and roll the dice on how severe it is if it means my kids get to go to elementary school, play with friends, play sports and be able to compete.

I'm back in my office with coworkers and we are not wearing masks all day (although we have separate offices so we're socially distanced most of the time). We are careful but not obsessive and doing work face to face when needed. No positive cases so far and no spread. But we're all a lot more effective this way.

I know the risks and I'm choosing accordingly.

RandyAg98
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AggieYankee1...care to comment on Keegan's post? You seem to "know" a lot of things that are not based on facts.
RafterAg223
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RandyAg98 said:

AggieYankee1...care to comment on Keegan's post? You seem to "know" a lot of things that are not based on facts.
AY1 doesn't deal in facts. AY1 has a history on multiple forums here of fear mongering and being nasty to those that use actual data to refute the fear mongering.
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