You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
Yes, but not to the same level. They also have >10x population density. Still supports that masks help.GAC06 said:Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
Japan is seeing a lot of new cases despite the use of masks.
Considering stores don't let people in without them, they're being enforced pretty hard.Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
A lot is relative, they never really had a huge spike that lasted weeks. They rarely have had more than 5 deaths a day since MayGAC06 said:Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
Japan is seeing a lot of new cases despite the use of masks.
But going to a party or gathering after without one. Kind of like wearing a condom with one girl and not wearing one with another and wondering why girl two is pregnant (or you've got an STD) - but I wore a condom!Aggies2009 said:Considering stores don't let people in without them, they're being enforced pretty hard.Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
Yet cases didn't drop.
Bruce Almighty said:
All of these models have been wrong during this entire pandemic. They've been too high, adjusted, then too low, and adjusted again. Texas isn't going to more than double their deaths in 3 weeks. That's asinine. 23,000 by end of August 2021 would be more realistic than this.
Does it? Was that the only variable? Need more information. Did they lockdown harder? Are they counting/reporting things the exact same way? Are they in better health than we are? Have they had as many protests? As much travel into their country? Does being an island make a difference? I really don't know. They are wearing masks now and seeing the spike. Who knows where they will be in 6 weeks. They may just be 3-4 months behind us and have to go through it all eventually anyways.Old RV Ag said:Yes, but not to the same level. They also have >10x population density. Still supports that masks help.GAC06 said:Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
Japan is seeing a lot of new cases despite the use of masks.
Maybe I'm reading it differently, or just being optimistic, I'm reading this as lowering over time, meaning that some of the deaths from Covid might very well have been from the expected numbers any given year to begin with. It seemed to be way above the line on April 11th, but now, getting closer and closer to normal. I also don't think you can conclude that this means there is nearly certainly some undercounting even if we are in the excess. Any given year can change by 100k or so in the US, and......culdeus said:
Excess death figures look a little scarier now than they did a few weeks ago: Enough so that you can see where there is nearly certainly some undercounting. However, you need to apply a ton of these deaths over to get where this number is.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Looking forward, deaths and hospitalization has dropped so much for all causes too, so you need another huge 3rd? wave to pull this off?
All this is broken out by the CDC. I would take a look at their statistics for yourself. There's no need to bring in things like car deaths and suicides, it's easy enough to split things out with that aside.beerad12man said:Maybe I'm reading it differently, or just being optimistic, I'm reading this as lowering over time, meaning that some of the deaths from Covid might very well have been from the expected numbers any given year to begin with. It seemed to be way above the line on April 11th, but now, getting closer and closer to normal. I also don't think you can conclude that this means there is nearly certainly some undercounting even if we are in the excess. Any given year can change by 100k or so in the US, and......culdeus said:
Excess death figures look a little scarier now than they did a few weeks ago: Enough so that you can see where there is nearly certainly some undercounting. However, you need to apply a ton of these deaths over to get where this number is.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Looking forward, deaths and hospitalization has dropped so much for all causes too, so you need another huge 3rd? wave to pull this off?
Wouldn't you also have to factor in more potential deaths due to suicide, drug overdose, alcohol, violent crimes, other health issues neglected or cancelled due to Covid, etc. many other reasons people may have died that weren't because they contracted covid, but rather because of a covid world associated with lockdowns and the fear driven hysteria created by the media.
On the other hand, you may have less potential accidents or flu / pneumonia deaths from distancing and less people on the roads.
Yes, and I pointed to the gaps in some of that logic. That being said you still have to reconcile alot of deaths over what will be the 9 year high in pneumonia deaths even taking 100% of all Cov deaths as pneumonia induced. The year isn't really over yet. Back of envelope there seems to be at least 2500 deaths (probably 4000) that are coming from somewhere that wasn't expected over the prior 9 year highs in Texas. That's still quite a bit, but again nowhere near what this model would be tracking towards (if all were really cov).beerad12man said:
I'm not expert, but it looks like the gap has closed dramatically since April 11th, but I guess I'm just reading it wrong?
I'm pretty sure excess pneumonia deaths have happened a lot if you look back over the years. It tends to fluctuate, or at least has had a few years with big spikes. I seem to remember a post about that on this board, but I may be wrong. I don't think it's any guarantee that it's necessarily covid increasing those.
Here's my take. I think little transmission would be happening at stores with or w/o masks. Think about it: How close to you get to strangers to talk? Especially these days....it's sort of ingrained at this point, stand away. With those shields at every damn checkout, you really wouldn't even transfer to the clerks. Seems like sort of a waste.Aggies2009 said:Considering stores don't let people in without them, they're being enforced pretty hard.Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
Yet cases didn't drop.
beerad12man said:
For 0.25% or 0.65%, not as many fall in line thinking it's worth it to society as a whole to do what we have done to it. Even if others think we are monsters for doing so. It's how we are wired.
bigtruckguy3500 said:
Did y'all read the article?
This model is an automated model that is constantly changing projections based on data it pulls. On July 27th there was a reporting error in its source data that listed 1202 deaths, compared with 88 the day before and 223 the day after.
That erroneous spike caused the model to have such a high projection.
The author of the article is just using the number, which the creators of the model acknowledge is faulty, as click bait.
"At the beginning of August, the model actually had a more modest projected death toll of 7,176, compared to the real-world total of 7,471."
Any model/projection is only as good as the data that goes into it, and the data is constantly changing.
Pull out worked for me back in college.Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
There is no "safe" sex just like there is no covid risk-free "safe" interaction. Condoms are 99% effective only when used correctly. I've read that in realworld applications condoms are about 85-90% effective. Just like condoms, masks are a tool not a solution. The only real solution far stopping transmission is abstinence from in person interactions.Old RV Ag said:But going to a party or gathering after without one. Kind of like wearing a condom with one girl and not wearing one with another and wondering why girl two is pregnant (or you've got an STD) - but I wore a condom!Aggies2009 said:Considering stores don't let people in without them, they're being enforced pretty hard.Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
Yet cases didn't drop.
Abstinence only sex Ed leads to higher teen pregnancy rate. We as a society are very bad at abstinence.tysker said:There is no "safe" sex just like there is no covid risk-free "safe" interaction. Condoms are 99% effective only when used correctly. I've read that in realworld applications condoms are about 85-90% effective. Just like condoms, masks are a tool not a solution. The only real solution far stopping transmission is abstinence from in person interactions.Old RV Ag said:But going to a party or gathering after without one. Kind of like wearing a condom with one girl and not wearing one with another and wondering why girl two is pregnant (or you've got an STD) - but I wore a condom!Aggies2009 said:Considering stores don't let people in without them, they're being enforced pretty hard.Old RV Ag said:You're assuming everyone is wearing a mask. Kind of like a condom - having it stay in your wallet doesn't do any good.DeBoss said:
Can you help me understand how masks are working if deaths are spiking?
Yet cases didn't drop.
PJYoung said:
I saw this stat this morning. It took the world 6 months to get to 10 million confirmed cases and only 6 weeks to get to 20 million.