23,000 Texans dead by end of August?

15,715 Views | 94 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by PJYoung
BiochemAg97
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In reply to rojo_ag • 8:50a, 8/26/20
AG
rojo_ag said:
AggieBiker said:
rojo_ag said:
Keegan99 said:
Positivity rate is also hindered by delays in reporting. The statewide figure has been effectively useless for all of August as the state has worked through a background of over a million tests.
So health officials that use positivity rates to inform decisions are idiots?
Some are, some aren't but they all know it's not a perfect measure. It's just another stat and stats can be misleading if they are not properly developed and contextualized. Surely you understand this don't you?

And why do you think "health officials" are so much smarter than anyone else or incapable of making poor decisions? Every profession or trade has people that make mistakes in spite of their education, experience or wisdom.


If that is the case, there are an awful lot of county health officials who are bad at their job. Maybe as a society we need to find out why these incapable and ineffective people are getting such influential positions. Hard to believe so many idiots have so much authority. And the governors too. The ones who are using positivity rates to make important decisions about people's livelihood..

I'm no doctor. I stay in my lane. A lot of super smart people on this board with all of the answers. Wish people would wake up and start listening to the infinite wisdom of TexAgs. We might be done with this **** sandwich already.
Honestly... you are surprised that idiots somehow get put in charge? What rock have you been living under?

County health officials rely on information and direction from state and federal health officials. No one can be an expert in everything county health officials have to deal with.
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beerad12man
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8:51a, 8/26/20
AG
We've given covid way too much power in this world with our responses to it. I know some think I'm just repeating lines, but the cure became worse than the disease 4 months ago. At least in terms of long term negative effects on our country.
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rojo_ag
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 10:35a, 8/26/20
AG
BiochemAg97 said:
Keegan99 said:
Positivity rate is also hindered by delays in reporting. The statewide figure has been effectively useless for all of August as the state has worked through a background of over a million tests.
Article in the Statesman last night was talking about how Williamson County wanted more people to get tested because the positivity rate was too low. And provided a link to the free testing. Only, to get the free testing, you need exposure or symptoms, which makes sense. But, then falling testing numbers suggest fewer people are qualifying for the free test, that is fewer people have symptoms.


Interestingly, if you look at positivity of the flu test during flu season, it starts out very low ~10%, climbs to ~60%, and then falls again. But I have never seen anyone panic and demand people get more testing because the positivity is ~60%. Since we only test people who have flu like illness, the % is not a direct reflection of how prevalent the flu is in the population, but rather a reflection of how prevalent the flu is compared to everything else that causes flu like illness. That is what percent of the symptomatic patients have flu vs something else.
Granted. But this virus has not been treated like the flu. Should it be? Debatable I guess, but the "open it all up crowd without mitigation measures" have been losing this debate since late March.
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rojo_ag
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In reply to BiochemAg97 • 10:38a, 8/26/20
AG
Quote:
Honestly... you are surprised that idiots somehow get put in charge? What rock have you been living under?
Not idiots in charge. Of course there are in all governmental agencies. Just surprising that there are so many idiots that are public health officials making ridiculous decisions in the name of public safety.
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tysker
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In reply to rojo_ag • 10:40a, 8/26/20
AG
rojo_ag said:
BiochemAg97 said:
Keegan99 said:
Positivity rate is also hindered by delays in reporting. The statewide figure has been effectively useless for all of August as the state has worked through a background of over a million tests.
Article in the Statesman last night was talking about how Williamson County wanted more people to get tested because the positivity rate was too low. And provided a link to the free testing. Only, to get the free testing, you need exposure or symptoms, which makes sense. But, then falling testing numbers suggest fewer people are qualifying for the free test, that is fewer people have symptoms.


Interestingly, if you look at positivity of the flu test during flu season, it starts out very low ~10%, climbs to ~60%, and then falls again. But I have never seen anyone panic and demand people get more testing because the positivity is ~60%. Since we only test people who have flu like illness, the % is not a direct reflection of how prevalent the flu is in the population, but rather a reflection of how prevalent the flu is compared to everything else that causes flu like illness. That is what percent of the symptomatic patients have flu vs something else.
Granted. But this virus has not been treated like the flu. Should it be? Debatable I guess, but the "open it all up crowd without mitigation measures" have been losing this debate since late March.
Debate? Has there been an open and fully disclosed debate? One of the issues has been the lack of transparency and logical follow through by officials especially when information changes.
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rojo_ag
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In reply to tysker • 10:47a, 8/26/20
AG
Quote:
Debate? Has there been an open and fully disclosed debate? One of the issues has been the lack of transparency and logical follow through by officials especially when information changes.
Not going to deny your valid point. But. . .

Log in to any school board meeting in Texas. They should all be recorded. I assure you the debate is alive and well.
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tysker
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In reply to rojo_ag • 11:07a, 8/26/20
AG
rojo_ag said:
Quote:
Debate? Has there been an open and fully disclosed debate? One of the issues has been the lack of transparency and logical follow through by officials especially when information changes.
Not going to deny your valid point. But. . .

Log in to any school board meeting in Texas. They should all be recorded. I assure you the debate is alive and well.
My wife watched our school board meeting two nights ago until well after 11 if not midnight. ~3 hrs of public/parent letters were read. ISDs are bound by the health requirements and guidelines of the Country and State while making sure they still get their TEA funding. ISDs are responding to their incentives within their given constraints. Apparently our ISD is scrambling again because of the changing landscape and virtual versus in-school numbers have changed so much over the last month.

Are the health Depts and politicians have similar honest and public debates?
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AggieBiker
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In reply to rojo_ag • 12:35p, 8/26/20
AG
rojo_ag said:
You seem to be an intelligent individual, so do I really need to explain to you why Fauci and the WHO initially discouraged us not to wear masks? I know you know why.
If your referring to them wanting to prevent a run on PPE so medical personnel would be better protected, that doesn't explain why they could not have suggested alternative face coverings. If they had, like they do now, would that have prevented or significantly minimized cases, deaths and all the other negative effects we've had? Honest question, were the experts not smart enough to figure that out back then?

Also in looking at some articles it seems that they (Fauci and his group) actually changed their minds about the importance of masks.

All I can say for sure is, at the time, I thought it is only logical that something covering my mouth would prevent my aerosol breath drops from spreading as plentiful or far as having no covering at all. But a smart Fauci didn't support that thought or offer alternatives. It still seems logical to me that a mask/covering helps some. Fauci and most officials and Med persons now promote it as good science even though we both know there is still much debate from various studies. As for me, I will keep wearing one as it isn't that big of a hassle for me.

But I also still contend Fauci, county officials, school presidents and others can be making a mistake using the very imperfect positivity rates to determine course and we should not simply trust their actions as being the most reliable advice to follow. That doesn't make them idiots if they are wrong and their consensus doesn't make them right either. If that's not the way you see the discussion about this then we are just going to keep on disagreeing. I hope that doesn't bother you as it shouldn't bother either of us and doesn't bother me.
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rojo_ag
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In reply to AggieBiker • 3:15p, 8/26/20
AG
AggieBiker said:
rojo_ag said:
You seem to be an intelligent individual, so do I really need to explain to you why Fauci and the WHO initially discouraged us not to wear masks? I know you know why.
If your referring to them wanting to prevent a run on PPE so medical personnel would be better protected, that doesn't explain why they could not have suggested alternative face coverings. If they had, like they do now, would that have prevented or significantly minimized cases, deaths and all the other negative effects we've had? Honest question, were the experts not smart enough to figure that out back then?

Also in looking at some articles it seems that they (Fauci and his group) actually changed their minds about the importance of masks.

All I can say for sure is, at the time, I thought it is only logical that something covering my mouth would prevent my aerosol breath drops from spreading as plentiful or far as having no covering at all. But a smart Fauci didn't support that thought or offer alternatives. It still seems logical to me that a mask/covering helps some. Fauci and most officials and Med persons now promote it as good science even though we both know there is still much debate from various studies. As for me, I will keep wearing one as it isn't that big of a hassle for me.

But I also still contend Fauci, county officials, school presidents and others can be making a mistake using the very imperfect positivity rates to determine course and we should not simply trust their actions as being the most reliable advice to follow. That doesn't make them idiots if they are wrong and their consensus doesn't make them right either. If that's not the way you see the discussion about this then we are just going to keep on disagreeing. I hope that doesn't bother you as it shouldn't bother either of us and doesn't bother me.
I think you have offered a reasonable and thoughtful post. I post on TexAgs to hear different perspectives. No issue at all with the dialogue.
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AggieBiker
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In reply to rojo_ag • 4:06p, 8/26/20
Ag Natural
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7:00p, 8/30/20
AG
By my calculations, someone is going to have to kill off 10k more COVID patients in the next 24 hours to make this prediction true. Everyone watch your backs!!
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fullback44
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7:41a, 9/7/20
AG
[Email Moderator if you have questions about the moderation of this forum. - Staff]
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Keegan99
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In reply to rojo_ag • 7:49a, 9/7/20
AG
rojo_ag said:
You seem to be an intelligent individual, so do I really need to explain to you why Fauci and the WHO initially discouraged us not to wear masks? I know you know why.


Because they don't work.

But then politics and the desire for people to feel like they had "control" over a virus took hold.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

"Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza."
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BiochemAg97
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In reply to Keegan99 • 3:44p, 9/7/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
rojo_ag said:
You seem to be an intelligent individual, so do I really need to explain to you why Fauci and the WHO initially discouraged us not to wear masks? I know you know why.


Because they don't work.

But then politics and the desire for people to feel like they had "control" over a virus took hold.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article

"Disposable medical masks (also known as surgical masks) are loose-fitting devices that were designed to be worn by medical personnel to protect accidental contamination of patient wounds, and to protect the wearer against splashes or sprays of bodily fluids (36). There is limited evidence for their effectiveness in preventing influenza virus transmission either when worn by the infected person for source control or when worn by uninfected persons to reduce exposure. Our systematic review found no significant effect of face masks on transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza."
But that is influenza and not COVID19 so it doesn't count. LOL
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Belton Ag
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4:07p, 9/7/20
AG
I'm sure it's been brought up this thread, but the more I think back on the initial discouragement of mask use the more irritated I get about it.

If it was done, as has been suggested, as a defensive move to prevent a panic run on PPE and subsequent shortage, then it was a lie. Even if it was a lie told with good intentions, it was still a lie, and in retrospect it undermined their credibility right at the beginning of the pandemic.

I'm positive if you were to ask Fauci and others in private they probably would tell you they made a HUGE mistake.

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cone
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In reply to Belton Ag • 4:51p, 9/7/20
AG
I don't think they'd admit to a mistake at all

the noble lie worked to the intended end
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cone
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In reply to Keegan99 • 4:54p, 9/7/20
AG
I buy into the reduced viral load via universal masking in indoor locations

I don't believe masking is without utility, and it's cheap
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Belton Ag
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In reply to cone • 4:56p, 9/7/20
AG
cone said:
I don't think they'd admit to a mistake at all

the noble lie worked to the intended end
And undermined their credibility and contributed to the political dogfight over the mask issue. I hardly think it was worth it.
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O'Doyle Rules
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In reply to Belton Ag • 9:22p, 9/11/20
AG
Belton Ag said:
I'm sure it's been brought up this thread, but the more I think back on the initial discouragement of mask use the more irritated I get about it.

If it was done, as has been suggested, as a defensive move to prevent a panic run on PPE and subsequent shortage, then it was a lie. Even if it was a lie told with good intentions, it was still a lie, and in retrospect it undermined their credibility right at the beginning of the pandemic.

I'm positive if you were to ask Fauci and others in private they probably would tell you they made a HUGE mistake.



I agree, but it simply isn't acceptable to make that big of a mistake on the big stage at a moment when it is absolutely imperative to get the message RIGHT. Shame on him. He could have taken another two sentences to explain why he said no masks in the beginning. All N95's go to medical staff, everyone else wear cloth masks temporarily. Geez.
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Ag Natural
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8:05p, 10/20/20
AG
Sitting at 17,680 on October 20th. We might not hit 23k until.... never.
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JamesE4
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In reply to Ag Natural • 9:40p, 10/20/20
AG
Ag Natural said:
Sitting at 17,680 on October 20th. We might not hit 23k until.... never.
Depends on how long the tail is. Right now Texas is averaging 70/day - at that rate it would happen in 76 days. However, the average may drop, so it would take longer. Still possible that we hit it early next year.
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AgLiving06
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In reply to JamesE4 • 9:57p, 10/20/20
Or every flu death this year will get country as Covid to help pad the stats.
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Fitch
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10:11p, 10/20/20
AG
What flu?
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Tumble Weed
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In reply to beerad12man • 6:52p, 1/5/21
beerad12man said:
We've given covid way too much power in this world with our responses to it. I know some think I'm just repeating lines, but the cure became worse than the disease 4 months ago. At least in terms of long term negative effects on our country.
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3rd Generation Ag
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7:13p, 1/5/21
AG
I am so tired of the people who are still trying to say there is nothing to this. It gets old. In a hurry. Our school receptionist died from Covid this weekend. We have one AP who is really struggling with the long term after effects on her health. For many people this is real and important, and some of you just ridicule everything about it.
If you don't agree, you don't have to try to turn it into a joke.
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PJYoung
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In reply to JamesE4 • 9:45p, 1/5/21
AG
JamesE4 said:
Ag Natural said:
Sitting at 17,680 on October 20th. We might not hit 23k until.... never.
Depends on how long the tail is. Right now Texas is averaging 70/day - at that rate it would happen in 76 days. However, the average may drop, so it would take longer. Still possible that we hit it early next year.


For the record, over 29k now. Looks like we went over 23k in the first couple of days of December.
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