Another example of seroprevalence well over 20%

HotardAg07 said:

---

Another example of seroprevalence well over 20%

---

Wow 57% that is amazing considering the death/hospital rate.

Maybe there is something to the BCG vaccine, time will tell.

Indian slums also probably have a VERY low median age.

Yup. Mumbai has a median age a hair under 30, and it would almost certainly be less in the slums.

HotardAg07 said:

---

Indian slums also probably have a VERY low median age.

---

Great point.

HotardAg07 said:

---

Indian slums also probably have a VERY low median age.

---

Any guess as to the median BMI in Indian slums?

Considering people in these slums are living off <$1,000 a year or less, I would assume it would be low.

Barcelona does not appear to have reached the burnout threshold.

If new detected infections were showing up in abundance in Madrid then it would be concerning.

Keegan99 said:

---

Barcelona does not appear to have reached the burnout threshold.

If new detected infections were showing up in abundance in Madrid then it would be concerning.

---

COVID starting to surge again in Madrid after Another ~500 cases today in Madrid push their running 7 Day total in new cases to over 1,400 with a two week total of 1,900 new cases.

MADRID The Madrid regional government is making the wearing of face masks mandatory in all public areas, limiting how many people can gather in one place and targeting young people in a drive to stamp out new outbreaks of the coronavirus.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/wacotrib.com/news/world/the-latest-madrid-tightens-coronavirus-restrictions/article_ad735f90-e827-502e-91e7-37405c95e625.amp.html



Due to incubation period, the effect of reinstating mask mandate and other mitigation measures will take about 10 days to see it start to slow rate of transmission. It will be interesting to follow the numbers over the next week and follow press reports with regards to public compliance to reinstating masking and other mitigation measures.

Images compare today's numbers to yesterday's.

Link to AP article not working in post above...

Lemmys Rickenbacker said:

---

ORAggieFan said:

---

Also interesting to see countries that looked to have it contained without ever having large number infected are seeing surges now such as Japan and Australia. We may all end up taking the Sweden approach over time.

---

Yep, you cannot hide from a virus.

---

Exactly

Looks like yesterday he is starting to come around and brainstorm mitigation measures that are effective at slowing things down to allow us to keep the economy as open as possible.

Stay safe Ags! Mask up and keep numbers low. Protect your neighbors and your community!

Too little too late

bay fan said:

---

Extremism regarding things I never mentioned is always a great fall back.

Let me speak more slowly, masks are working to a greater extent in Northern California where compliance is greater. You may not like that but the state numbers verify it. Masks worked when everybody wears them. The more that don't wear them, the less they work. It's pretty simple.

Wearing a mask in public is a minor inconvenience and one small thing we can do to chip in. Avoiding large gatherings also works as illustrated, well, everywhere. The resistance is mind boggling.

---

Northern California also happens to be north of Southern California.

To the extent that 35N (division between temperate zone and subtropical zone) Is a rough dividing line between an early phase infection (NY, Europe) and a later phase infection (Texas, Florida, Mexico, etc), Bay Area would have passed their seasonal outbreak and LA and San Diego would be in the middle of their seasonal outbreak.

AgE Doc said:

---

Aggie95 said:

---

AgE Doc said:

---

"Masks were never prevalent in Europe..."

This doesn't appear to be true as most hard hit countries required them coming out of their lockdown and countries who instituted them prior to a bigger initial wave avoided that tragedy...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/countries-wearing-face-masks-compulsory-200423094510867.html

---

some of those "green" areas, with more stringent mask rules have outbreaks worse than the US right now, specifically Mexico.

---

Very true about Mexico. Mandates and compliance with mandates can be two different things. Similar to what Iran is dealing with regard to mitigation apathy.

Another things also to consider when looking at a countries risk for a really bad outbreak is to what degree do they have many people and multiple generations living in one home. Mexico has many multigenerational homes and to my knowledge no County is mandating masking within a household. The more the average number of people in a home the higher the R-naught would be expected to be.

---

Several countries noted that most of the spread was between family members and likely at home. In part, that would be because people didn't interact with others outside the home during a lockdown, but also longer term exposure in the home increases change of spread.

All these situations need to be looked at individually. The sharp rise in cases in Mexican started to happen, or correlated, with the attempt at a return to normal activities. And in particular the return to using mass transportation of the 3rd world variety. Cram 90 people on a bus designed for 50 and masks are going to lose effectiveness.

The actions and conditions of locale's are going to directly impact the stats there. Testing, actual testing, in Mexico is very small and it is doubtful any numbers by the government are close to accurate.

Pedestrian/civilian estimates are that Mexicos positive and recovered numbers are much higher than they are.

The period of excess death in Spain is over.

Europe has not had any excess death in nearly three months.

"It turns out that reported COVID19 deaths in Europe did not stop when excess deaths did. The additional 16,600 reported deaths (9.4%) since 24 May are not excess deaths. Some of those who died of COVID may have been close to natural death & cannot die again." -- Michael Levitt

That's an interesting way to look at it. You were going to be dying in a few years anyway so the fact that you died a little early isn't that big a deal.

Keegan99 said:

---

The period of excess death in Spain is over.

Europe has not had any excess death in nearly three months.

---

It kinda makes sense if the first batch of deaths would have died a few months later but their not dying in May (because they were already dead) offset the COVID deaths in May, for example.

Keegan99 said:

---

That's the correct way of looking at it. Society should not be upended to buy a few months of life for a few thousand people in a population of hundreds of millions.


But the point remains, there is not any current excess mortality in Europe. Sorry.

---

With 25,837 cases diagnosed last week in Spain you would anticipate at least 130 deaths from that in the coming weeks.

Not sure what the fatality demographics are in Spain by age, but in Texas about 40% of those deaths would be people under the age of 70. Even for men in the US whose average life expectancy is 76 years of age, that's at least 7 years cut off their life (for those that are 69), and many more years lost for quite a few others.

Plus Spain hasn't just completely opened everything back up to normal, there are still a lot measures in place to try and mitigate spread, although compliance with many of these more simple measures has become more lax.

It very much does NOT look like it has "burned out" in Madrid, Spain. It will be very interesting to follow and see at what point of resurgence and death do people increase their efforts with simple mitigation efforts.

AgE Doc said:

---

"It turns out that reported COVID19 deaths in Europe did not stop when excess deaths did. The additional 16,600 reported deaths (9.4%) since 24 May are not excess deaths. Some of those who died of COVID may have been close to natural death & cannot die again." -- Michael Levitt

That's an interesting way to look at it. You were going to be dying in a few years anyway so the fact that you died a little early isn't that big a deal.

---

It will be interesting to see how these backfilling charts continue to develop over the coming weeks when it comes to total excess death.

Texas this week should be at the peak in new reported daily deaths. Hopefully daily cases will continue to come down at a more rapid pace so that the deaths will follow by also trending quicker.

The country hopefully by mid August will also have hit its 2nd peak in daily deaths and start to come back down.

Then I pray that schools districts with leadership from administration, staff and students take mask and distancing guidelines seriously so we don't end up with a 3rd peak or a prolonged 2nd Peak/Plateau.

Texas fatalities by date of death peaked a bit more than three weeks ago, as they did for Florida and Arizona as well. Georgia was about two weeks ago.

Any talk of a mid August peak is about three weeks too late.

Keegan99 said:

---

Texas fatalities by date of death peaked about three weeks ago, as they did for Florida and Arizona as well. Georgia was about two weeks ago.

Any talk of a mid August peak is about a month late.

---

When deaths are going up back filling curves always appear to have peaked 2-3 weeks ago. It takes time for the data to fill in via confirmed death certificate completion.

But I agree we have passed our peak for now. What I am referring to I should rephrase as the peak in newly reported/confirmed daily deaths.

Today was 324 newly reported deaths of fellow Texans. What I am suggesting is that starting next week we should see the new daily reported deaths start to trend down.

How quickly that happens will depend on continuing efforts to decrease new cases in the face of our experiment with social distancing and masks in schools.

Due to the increasing 7-Day Totals for COVID deaths over the last 3-4 weeks, The total excess death for the U.S. doesn't look like it will be back down to baseline by August 25th and appears at least for the time being to be tending away from the baseline.

I'm still convinced that what people do to mitigate the transmission determines which direction that line will move and not some "Burn Out" factor well short of herd immunity.

Quote:

---

But I agree we have passed our peak for now

---

Quote:

---

The total excess death for the U.S. doesn't look like it will be back down to baseline by August 25th and appears at least for the time being to be tending away from the baseline.

---

If we are past the peak, then we are in decline.

If we are in decline, then we are tending toward the baseline.

Keegan99 said:

---

Quote:

---

But I agree we have passed our peak for now

---

Quote:

---

The total excess death for the U.S. doesn't look like it will be back down to baseline by August 25th and appears at least for the time being to be tending away from the baseline.

---

If we are past the peak, then we are in decline.

If we are in decline, then we are tending toward the baseline.

---

There is the possibility of a plateau or a very slow trend downward over 8 to 10 weeks.

Mr. Levitt says zero Excess death by August 25th and that the pandemic is over at that point. I'm saying I don't see that happening even by moved goal post metric of excess death, rather than going by deaths confirmed to be caused by COVID.

For instance the families of the 16,000 COVID deaths in Europe Since May 24th that he discounts as not being relevant to the pandemic because excess mortality isn't above baseline I'm sure would disagree with the pandemic being over in Europe.

Keegan99 said:

---

That's a sincere emotional statement, but it's not a substantive argument.

The term epidemic has a set of criteria. The epidemic ends when those criteria are no longer met. One way to objectively evaluate that condition is excess death. Another way is as a percentage of all-cause deaths. But there is no definition that is based on "thoughts of family members".

We also have a regular end to flu season, but individuals die from the flu in every month of the year. That individuals die from the flu in the summer months does not change the definition of flu season.

---

Let me ask you a couple of questions to get you on the record...

Do you believe excess deaths will be back to baseline before the end of the month, like Mr Levitt?

Do you believe this is due to a 10-20% "burnout" phenomenon that is independent of mitigation efforts?

With a new disease that will likely be endemic, what is the "normally expected" level. Historically it would be 0, but going forward expecting an endemic disease would anticipate non zero. At some point it should be at endemic levels but that is still above the historical 0.