https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/07/06/covid-19-may-soon-lose-status-as-an-epidemic-under-cdc-guidelines-n609729

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According to the CDC, "Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 9.0% during week 25 to 5.9% during week 26, representing the tenth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC." If the percentage continues to decline, it is likely COVID-19 will lose its classification as an epidemic in the next few weeks.

Some might scoff at the idea that deaths will continue to decline, but it's been 21 days since COVID-19 cases started to spike and there's been no spike in deaths.

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Let's hope this trend continues

Recent data is incomplete, so the blue line will rise a bit, but it's reasonable to conclude that, as far as the United States as a whole is concerned, the epidemic lost its status several weeks ago.

The CDC updates its data every Friday morning. The next few Friday drops will be very telling.

The tool on this page is really good.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

State by state view of excess deaths.

(You can also see how mild the last two flu seasons were.)

I dunno. Don't do what NY did and protect the nursing homes and there won't be as many deaths.

Silky Johnston said:

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I dunno. Don't do what NY did and protect the nursing homes and there won't be as many deaths.

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I agree that we need to protect the nursing homes, but this is very difficult on the residents. If appears as though the absence of visitors has caused many to go into deep/deeper depression, and the mental decline in those with dementia has accelerated.

The staff is also having a hard time keeping the facilities staffed as they're getting sick, and are frequently already short staffed.

There is no great solution to this on any front.

bigtruckguy3500 said:

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Silky Johnston said:

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I dunno. Don't do what NY did and protect the nursing homes and there won't be as many deaths.

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I agree that we need to protect the nursing homes, but this is very difficult on the residents. If appears as though the absence of visitors has caused many to go into deep/deeper depression, and the mental decline in those with dementia has accelerated.

The staff is also having a hard time keeping the facilities staffed as they're getting sick, and are frequently already short staffed.

There is no great solution to this on any front.

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This is not just in nursing homes/assisted living. My mother is not in one but would be VERY high risk of death due to COVID-19 because of pre-existing conditions. We avoided seeing her when this first started but she was so depressed/lonely that we finally had to say f-it and take the risk. Living out your days in isolation is no way to live. Granted I don't want her out in public or even going to the grocery store. However people, especially those living by themselves, need to see their loved ones. We are fortunate that she lives somewhat close but thinking about those who are older and not able to see family or sometimes anyone for months on end is really sad.

Lester Freamon said:

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Consistent with demongraphics/pre existing conditions as seen previously? Or seeing younger/healthier too?

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Cases skewing younger. Sent two people under the age of 40 to ICU. Couldn't keep their sats up even with proning and tons of oxygen.

Both obese. The problem is a huge portion of Texas is fat. There's no other way to say it. Obesity is a preexisting condition. Texas is an obese state. Fat people aren't doing well with this illness.

Imagine a virus so dangerous you had to be tested to even know you had it.

Picadillo said:

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Imagine a virus so dangerous you had to be tested to even know you had it.

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Imagine a virus so dangerous it killed 134,000 Americans in 3.5 months while the entire world was in lockdown. Just imagine.

ETFan said:

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Picadillo said:

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Imagine a virus so dangerous you had to be tested to even know you had it.

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Imagine a virus so dangerous it killed 134,000 Americans in 3.5 months while the entire world was in lockdown. Just imagine.

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Maybe governors shouldn't have forced COVID+ patients back into care facilities?

Let's look at the states that did vs those that did not.

(Also, CDC reports 115k COVID deaths, but less than 30k excess deaths. That suggests COVID was killing a lot of folks that were already at death's door.)





From a mortality perspective, this is the Hong Kong Flu of 1968.

I know it's not a laughing matter but I like how specific things are getting.

Ok so they are overweight... But can you tell me how overweight? Ugh.... Can you tell me how much they exercised a day? Crap... What about how much they can bench? Dammit.

Oh they had brown hair? Phew OK, makes me feel better now.

I NEED 40 TIMES AND STAR RATINGS!!!

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Picadillo said:
Imagine a virus so dangerous you had to be tested to even know you had it.

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Imagine a virus so dangerous it killed 134,000 Americans in 3.5 months while the entire world was in lockdown. Just imagine.

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The problem with SARSCOV-2 is not the lethality. It's how highly infectious it is.

99.5% of people who get it will survive and 80% of those will have very mild symptoms if any at all.

But the problem is that millions can contract it at one time and that 10-20% of people who will require hospital care can put an enormous strain on our healthcare system.

Picadillo said:

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But it's not. It will soon no longer be an epidemic and occupancy rates nationwide show approx 80% non-covid inpatients. The other approx 20% are all covid "related" i.e. admitted "with" Covid and "because" of Covid.

The CARES Act pays an additional 20% premium for covid-related inpatients.

Still highly contagious yes, but chances of deadly, no. Approximately or less than that of the seasonal flu.

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You've had doctors and others explicitly explain why this conspiracy is false. Please stop peddling this nonsense.

Second bolded item, also incorrect.

You do realize the cost to care for COVID positive patients is also higher, right? More PPE, separate wings, more staffing, etc. You keep harping on hospitals getting paid more but you haven't looked at the increase cost at all. Until you run those numbers your posts are rather worthless.

Your quixotic mission on this board is beyond transparent as well.

He's kind of become a soothing predictable gimmick poster in times of uncertainty.

Picadillo said:

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Facts can be offensive at times...


https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/21/facebook-posts/Fact-check-Hospitals-COVID-19-payments/

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Medicare will pay hospitals a 20% "add-on" to the regular DRG payment for COVID-19 patients. That's a result of the CARES Act...

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To be clear, the falsehood in your statement isn't that medicare reimburses more for a COVID19 positive patient, we all know that's true, and they should. The falsehood is in your insinuation that doctors are committing medicare fraud.