A few points:
1) I agree that a snap judgement had to be made. I would have shut the economy down given the data we had.
2) Regarding the IHME model: Given my limited research, it's a curve fitting model. Of course over time at the macro level it starts to follow historical trends. I'm not sure it really is a good predictor of underlying drivers of the data or what might be to come as our underlying behaviors change. It's also a horrible model in non urban areas.
3) To your last paragraph:
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The peer reviewed data you talk about is different in that the data are what the data are and should be carefully examined before released to the public. We have made great advances in getting science to the public fast, not only for general knowledge but to accelerate research between groups. However, there have been some people that have taken advantage of that system. These studies that claimed the virus bound/lysed red blood cells or certain blood groups more susceptible -- all non-peer reviewed studies that I still see posted and discussed here daily when its bad science. The media and others jumped on them without fully understanding what was done. Same with treatments. We didn't know how to treat this thing and hydroxychlorquine was the first suggestion because that is what Korea was using. Sure use it because that is all we have, but we still needed blinded, controlled studies to show it is effective and data is coming in now that it is not (in terms of hospitalization usage). Same for all these companies that are trying to rush and produce serological tests to make a quick dollar -- that are not FDA approved and we don't know their false positive rate or sensitivity. They push them on you as the answer or worse just buy them from China and redistribute them without telling you and know we have anecdotal reports using these faulty kits that sway public opinion. We have to take time and understand all of these things before rushing out and trying to draw some conclusion, which I think has been the "blow back" from many here when these things are discussed.
This is exactly the dynamic that I'm talking about. Two points:
A) This is not a science experiment any longer. You don't get to control the narrative and control what data is seen and what data isn't. The media is in the middle of all of this and driving the entire narrative (and most of the narrative of this "scientific COVID" board). As much as the scientist want to be the arbiter of what is seen and isn't seen, we are past that now. This is a 24 hour news cycle and you don't have the luxury of a full peer review.
B) To a broader point, comments like this really piss a lot of people off. It comes of as very preachy as if the vast population is dumb and cant figure things out. While I may not be a doctor or a scientist ( I have a BS Computer Engineering + a MBA), there other others (like me) that know you are normal humans. I went to school with you and I know that you are no smarter on average than most of the rest of the Texas A&M student population. Given that this is the board of one of the best universities in the country, you best keep in mind not to talk to down to people like a bunch of rubes. Yes, you may have domain knowledge, but you don't get to take over our lives without explanation.
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I don't think you can say we "rushed in with bad data....". There was no data. Now, given time, we are slowly accumulating data and ideas to attack, while flattening the curve and keeping hospitalizations/deaths under control for now.
Yes... we did. We made a snap judgement that I personally agreed with at the time.
However, your comments illustrates my point. The goal at the time was to flatten the curve. The curve is on the way to being pretty damn flat. Now that we are there, people are not going to wait for you to do your tests and peer reviews while the economy blows itself to bits.