fig96 said:

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rgag12 said:

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Player To Be Named Later said:

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It's really pretty mind boggling how ill prepared we have been as a country. We should have known this is coming for months now.

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You realize this virus wasn't in existence until December right? It wasn't a problem until the end of January.

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We still had no plan in place for an epidemic in general.

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There was a plan. It just wasn't followed.

When data is showing they've 'flattened the curve' enough compared to hospital capacity and they have quick testing available for anybody like South Korea, you'll presumably see 'shelter in place' orders relaxed.

In terms of sports, once testing is in place, I think you'll see them start to come back mid- to late-summer but NO FANS.

In terms of large fans at sporting events...I'm mentally prepared for the 2020 college football/NFL seasons to either have shortened seasons or played without fans in the stadiums. Having large crowd events like a football game crowd will be the last thing to ever come back, and it does not take much imagination to see that not happening until 2021.

Pumpkinhead said:

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When data is showing they've 'flattened the curve' enough compared to hospital capacity and they have quick testing available for anybody like South Korea, you'll presumably see 'shelter in place' orders relaxed.

In terms of sports, once testing is in place, I think you'll see them start to come back mid- to late-summer but NO FANS.

In terms of large fans at sporting events...I'm mentally prepared for the 2020 college football/NFL seasons to either have shortened seasons or played without fans in the stadiums. Having large crowd events like a football game crowd will be the last thing to ever come back, and it does not take much imagination to see that not happening until 2021.

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If they cancel the football season...they better just cancel/postpone the fall election. 1) The crowds at voting polls will create big-time viral spread and 2) we are not prepared and ready for total "at home" voting.

Sq 17 said:

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without these orders the Olds would still be running errands ,going to church, going to Drs apots etc. changing the Olds behavior to keep them from clogging up the icu also important

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And what of the juniors going to bars and then visiting their older family members for a hot meal? If you are realistic, you will see this is multigenerational spread and not just older people going to Target. It's going to take change from everyone to address it.

There is cancelling the football season, and then there is playing games - if they have an adequate testing plan in place to frequently test players, staff, and everyone else involved - but without fans in the stadium.

I think particularly the latter case...no fans in stadiums...is a very real possibility. Which of course would be more huge hits to local business communities that rely on football weekend traffic.

In terms of the election races, I hadn't thought about that much, but of course there are lots of impacts, including candidates unable to do campaign rallies and so forth.

Pumpkinhead said:

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There is cancelling the football season, and then there is playing games - if they have an adequate testing plan in place to frequently test players, staff, and everyone else involved - but without fans in the stadium.

I think particularly the latter case...no fans in stadiums...is a very real possibility. Which of course would be more huge hits to local business communities that rely on football weekend traffic.

In terms of the election races, I hadn't thought about that much, but of course there are lots of impacts, including candidates unable to do campaign rallies and so forth.

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Yes....I guess I am of the opinion that if they play the games in an empty stadium, they might as well cancel the games. Football over the decades has evolved into so much more than just 'playing the game'....it is an entire multi-sensory social experience. Taking away the social aspects (which may happened) will kill interest in the sport in that particular year IMO.

Respirators

Hospitals

We need to build temp hospitals and crank out respirators.

Put people to work building these. If we have $25,000,000 for the Kennedy Center, we have money to convert empty convention centers into make-shift hospitals. If Ford and GMC can't make trucks, they can crank out respirators. Best case they never get used and thrown away, but at least we did something and were able to continue with life.

RCR06 said:

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One of the things that has bothered me in all of this is not giving everyone a plan and the reasoning behind it. "We're going to shut everything down for two weeks(or even a month) and at that point we will have identified everyone that has symptoms. At that point if you are sick stay in isolation and then everyone else is going back to work" This is just an example(I know it's not perfect). I think people could wrap their head around that and say well it's going to suck, but in two weeks(or a month) if we follow the rules we will get some semblance of normalcy back. At this point they're just asking us to do all of this indefinitely(I know it will end at some point) and I think that is a mistake. Having said all of that I realize it's hard to give a date especially in some of the areas with high rates of infection. At this point it seems like everyone is just reacting.

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I agree that it's frustrating not knowing what will be expected of us in 2 weeks or 6 weeks. I hope someone at the highest levels of the CDC has been involved in thinking this through. I could care less about exactly how many ventilators have been sent where and masks etc. Send them, that is important, but no need to tell me about every one.

I'd like to know what the plan looks like for the next 6 months, even if that plan is couched with a best guess kind of number set. (just be up front about that). Maybe have a few alternate versions of plans to display highlights of, given new trends in the data 3 weeks from now, with an approach if it gets better, and an approach if it is worse.

At least knowing what the long term goal is, would help many of us deal better with all the uncertainty. In any business you have to be able to do this level of forecasting and long term estimating. I realize this virus is very new to the planet, and we don't know it all, but use the Swine flu as the model, and extrapolate up accordingly. At least that is a defensible baseline position for one of the worst killers worldwide in the last 100 years.

The realist in me can also see why you would share very little details, if you are in charge, as any slight thing you say wrong or guess wrong on, is becoming a massive political issue. I wish we could quarantine politics for 3 months while we are at it!

deadbq03 said:

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We wouldn't have to do a blanket sheltering if our testing capacity was worth a crap. Countries like Germany and South Korea had their **** together and were able to keep business open but also identify the sick and the folks that they contacted and lock those specific people down instead of closing the whole country.

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50M + 82M < 330M

population of South Korea & Germany < population of USA


This probably ends when we can have the capacity to do several rounds of testing on people.

RCR06 said:

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One of the things that has bothered me in all of this is not giving everyone a plan and the reasoning behind it. "We're going to shut everything down for two weeks(or even a month) and at that point we will have identified everyone that has symptoms. At that point if you are sick stay in isolation and then everyone else is going back to work" This is just an example(I know it's not perfect). I think people could wrap their head around that and say well it's going to suck, but in two weeks(or a month) if we follow the rules we will get some semblance of normalcy back. At this point they're just asking us to do all of this indefinitely(I know it will end at some point) and I think that is a mistake. Having said all of that I realize it's hard to give a date especially in some of the areas with high rates of infection. At this point it seems like everyone is just reacting.

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I think we're close to hearing the plan. I think they wanted to take some time to see how this was going to hit NY and other places before deciding what kind of plan to set forward.

If I had to guess, trying to stay out of this politically, from what i've heard Trump state about how this is going to be over sooner than anyone thinks and how much he measures himself on stock market returns -- I'd guess in the next week he is going to set forth a plan that ultimately opens the country back up and puts the responsibility of business-closing/social-distancing/shelter-in-place/mitigation solely on each individual state/city.

I don't necessarily think thats a GOOD thing, but I think that puts him in a position where he's not the guy killing the economy and if things go to hell it'st he individual states fault.

I just don't trust that the individual states will be able to have any kind of cohesive plan that stops the spread -- as Keegan brought up the other day -- we're forcing quarantine if you fly from New Orleans, but not anyone that is driving in? I get it's a degree of mitigation, but seems like more half-measures that eventually don't work and have to be replaced with full-measures.

Player To Be Named Later said:

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It's really pretty mind boggling how ill prepared we have been as a country. We should have known this is coming for decades now.

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Fify. Finally the economic incentive for big pharma and government to do something besides navel gazing. We have an Ebola vaccine now that is well over 90% effective. All it took was a large outbreak.

Maybe we can even start to see some new antibiotic research as well. We have known for decades that MRSA is a train headed down the tracks, but pharma spends all its efforts on self-inflicted maladies. I guess we need a bacterial MRSA pandemic as well.

At this point, I wish they had a way to get a bunch of Kool-Aid stands out and just drug the entire population into a coma for about 3 weeks. Put everybody to hibernation except the doctors and just get this damn thing over with in 21 days until it had completely died out, and then we could all move on in mid-April. Oh, and continue to ban all international travel from China...forever.

But, back to reality, ugh.

Pumpkinhead said:

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There is cancelling the football season, and then there is playing games - if they have an adequate testing plan in place to frequently test players, staff, and everyone else involved - but without fans in the stadium.

I think particularly the latter case...no fans in stadiums...is a very real possibility. Which of course would be more huge hits to local business communities that rely on football weekend traffic.

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is there really a reason to play football in stadiums without fans..... i get they were going to do this for march madness - but that was to end a season and give the players a chance to complete it.

Starting a whole season with the idea of no fans - won't happen.

We have to remember that there's "politics", then there is the Constitution. While it does allocate for government to have certain controls, or at least the courts have ruled as much, but at some point, we also have to consider the real time frame that this will last and what controls that we the people have over potential abuses of authority.

To me, a lot of the reason for restriction was to get a lot of us to hunker down and avoid clogging the hospitals until scientists and medical personnel can get a better understanding of the virus and what we are dealing with. If 99% of those afflicted survive, than over all that was the biggest reason for the stoppages and SiPs. Flatten the curve to get more control and understanding of the virus. That will save a lot of lives and help this slow down. But also, it really is a 99% survival rate. This isn't the Bubonic Plague or Yellow Fever. No life is at all expendable. And we don't have a vaccine like we do for the flu or other diseases. But as a society we can't stay on this indefinitely either, not for something that has a 99% survival rate. Waiting 12-18 months for a vaccine won't cut it. And even if they speed that up, remember, there are side effects to meds as well. In some cases serious ones. So we will have to tread carefully through all of this. Don't trade the lives saved from the virus for the lives lost from the vaccine or other medicines.

I wish it was yellow fever. Hit the yard with some Bifen and get on with life.

Pumpkinhead said:

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When data is showing they've 'flattened the curve' enough compared to hospital capacity and they have quick testing available for anybody like South Korea, you'll presumably see 'shelter in place' orders relaxed.

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But even then the curves are highly localized. It's going to be hard for NYC to remain in SIP three months after peak just because there's a spike in cases in Nashville and Phoenix.

deadbq03 said:

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We wouldn't have to do a blanket sheltering if our testing capacity was worth a crap. Countries like Germany and South Korea had their **** together and were able to keep business open but also identify the sick and the folks that they contacted and lock those specific people down instead of closing the whole country.

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Countries a fraction the size of America

jagvocate said:

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deadbq03 said:

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We wouldn't have to do a blanket sheltering if our testing capacity was worth a crap. Countries like Germany and South Korea had their **** together and were able to keep business open but also identify the sick and the folks that they contacted and lock those specific people down instead of closing the whole country.

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Countries a fraction the size of America

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As of a few days ago they S Korea had tested triple the number of people that we have and Germany had tested like 30% more.

fig96 said:

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As of a few days ago they S Korea had tested triple the number of people that we have and Germany had tested like 30% more.

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USA has tested 600k+
SK/ Germany: have tested 375k

double check your numbers

fig96 said:

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Capitol Ag said:

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We have to remember that there's "politics", then there is the Constitution. While it does allocate for government to have certain controls, or at least the courts have ruled as much, but at some point, we also have to consider the real time frame that this will last and what controls that we the people have over potential abuses of authority.

To me, a lot of the reason for restriction was to get a lot of us to hunker down and avoid clogging the hospitals until scientists and medical personnel can get a better understanding of the virus and what we are dealing with. If 99% of those afflicted survive, than over all that was the biggest reason for the stoppages and SiPs. Flatten the curve to get more control and understanding of the virus. That will save a lot of lives and help this slow down. But also, it really is a 99% survival rate. This isn't the Bubonic Plague or Yellow Fever. No life is at all expendable. And we don't have a vaccine like we do for the flu or other diseases. But as a society we can't stay on this indefinitely either, not for something that has a 99% survival rate. Waiting 12-18 months for a vaccine won't cut it. And even if they speed that up, remember, there are side effects to meds as well. In some cases serious ones. So we will have to tread carefully through all of this. Don't trade the lives saved from the virus for the lives lost from the vaccine or other medicines.

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I think this neglects an important part of the equation though, and that's what happens to other medical services when hospitals get overwhelmed. You're still going to have car accidents, shootings, accidents, etc., and if emergency rooms and hospitals are over capacity other medical and emergency services are going to suffer, as well as taxing medical personnel beyond their limits.

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Good point. And it's imperative that we consider that as well. Maybe the best plan is to account for that reality and build or make available more capacity by converting closed hospitals (as has been mentioned) or convert warehouses and buildings etc that aren't being used to handle medical needs plus hire more medical personnel. That way we can still provide excellent care and handle any major spike when we fully reopen. Now, how long it would take to do all of that, I do not know. Sort of like retooling our economy after Pearl Harbor. But if you know history, we got rolling and within a year were overwhelming the Axis with our ability to mass produce. What I propose, while still a big effort, would require nothing on the level that WWII did. It would be interesting to hear from experts on what it would take to have a major increase in available hospital beds. B/c the way I see it, without an all out cure, that is our best bet to get back to normal

Carnwellag2 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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There is cancelling the football season, and then there is playing games - if they have an adequate testing plan in place to frequently test players, staff, and everyone else involved - but without fans in the stadium.

I think particularly the latter case...no fans in stadiums...is a very real possibility. Which of course would be more huge hits to local business communities that rely on football weekend traffic.

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is there really a reason to play football in stadiums without fans..... i get they were going to do this for march madness - but that was to end a season and give the players a chance to complete it.

Starting a whole season with the idea of no fans - won't happen.

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The European soccer leagues were playing games with no fans To try to continue their seasons until completely shut down. So yes, I think that option would be considered.

Pumpkinhead said:

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At this point, I wish they had a way to get a bunch of Kool-Aid stands out and just drug the entire population into a coma for about 3 weeks. Put everybody to hibernation except the doctors and just get this damn thing over with in 21 days until it had completely died out, and then we could all move on in mid-April. Oh, and continue to ban all international travel from China...forever.

But, back to reality, ugh.

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This x 1,000!!

Pumpkinhead said:

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Carnwellag2 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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There is cancelling the football season, and then there is playing games - if they have an adequate testing plan in place to frequently test players, staff, and everyone else involved - but without fans in the stadium.

I think particularly the latter case...no fans in stadiums...is a very real possibility. Which of course would be more huge hits to local business communities that rely on football weekend traffic.

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is there really a reason to play football in stadiums without fans..... i get they were going to do this for march madness - but that was to end a season and give the players a chance to complete it.

Starting a whole season with the idea of no fans - won't happen.

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The European soccer leagues were playing games with no fans To try to continue their seasons until completely shut down. So yes, I think that option would be considered.

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they were trying to complete a season...... starting a season with the idea of no fans??? I don't see anyone making that decision

Carnwellag2 said:

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fig96 said:

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As of a few days ago they S Korea had tested triple the number of people that we have and Germany had tested like 30% more.

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USA has tested 600k+
SK/ Germany: have tested 375k

double check your numbers

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As I said that was as of a few days ago, although even then S Korea and Germany were over 480k combined so I'd ask where your numbers are from? I actually can't find current worldwide numbers, the US is at 540k per https://covidtracking.com/

And even if that's case, we're weeks behind testing where we should be.

Carnwellag2 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Carnwellag2 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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There is cancelling the football season, and then there is playing games - if they have an adequate testing plan in place to frequently test players, staff, and everyone else involved - but without fans in the stadium.

I think particularly the latter case...no fans in stadiums...is a very real possibility. Which of course would be more huge hits to local business communities that rely on football weekend traffic.

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is there really a reason to play football in stadiums without fans..... i get they were going to do this for march madness - but that was to end a season and give the players a chance to complete it.

Starting a whole season with the idea of no fans - won't happen.

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The European soccer leagues were playing games with no fans To try to continue their seasons until completely shut down. So yes, I think that option would be considered.

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they were trying to complete a season...... starting a season with the idea of no fans??? I don't see anyone making that decision

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MLS has the no fans option on the table. I'm sure MLB would be open to it as well as there's less direct contact in baseball than many sports.

Carnwellag2 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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There is cancelling the football season, and then there is playing games - if they have an adequate testing plan in place to frequently test players, staff, and everyone else involved - but without fans in the stadium.

I think particularly the latter case...no fans in stadiums...is a very real possibility. Which of course would be more huge hits to local business communities that rely on football weekend traffic.

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is there really a reason to play football in stadiums without fans.....

Starting a whole season with the idea of no fans - won't happen.

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A BILLION+ $ in TV revenue disagrees with you.

Quote:

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Bondag said:


Respirators

Hospitals

We need to build temp hospitals and crank out respirators.

Put people to work building these. If we have $25,000,000 for the Kennedy Center, we have money to convert empty convention centers into make-shift hospitals. If Ford and GMC can't make trucks, they can crank out respirators. Best case they never get used and thrown away, but at least we did something and were able to continue with life.

.

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Right on, Bondag. And put together a multi-state medical response team, something like the National Guard and maybe staffed with doctors and nurses who are just graduating, that can be called up and deployed to hot spots across the country to help staff hospitals, treatment areas for overflows in particular areas of the country. This would seem to limit or negate the need to have our entire country hunker down in non-productive mode..