FriscoKid said:

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Really soon. We are a free people. It's in our DNA.

This won't last for "a couple months"

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Coronavirus says "hold my beer"

(Sorry had to)

I sure hope it turns quickly. I work for a restaurant company and it's not looking good. I would be surprised if I have a job at the end of next week. We are trying to redevelop our business essentially overnight. Luckily, delivery and togo business is not new to us, but surviving on that business is a different story.

Austin, we are transitioning to online school. And while I understand your concerns, the kids being sick is not the issue. It is that everyone needed to run the schools needs to social distance. Teachers, many who are in high risk groups or who live with high risk people, custodians, administrators, food service workers.....huge numbers of people would not be able to social distance.

At least at my district we are working to have a transition to online unless this is controlled in another week. Since we are a community with a hot spot and a number of new cases, I would be surprised if that happens.

Ranger222 said:

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Just a reminder that the "we are free people, we'll just go about our business while the rest of you sit indoors" is EXACTLY the stupid mentality that will drag this out longer and contribute to virus spreading.

We all need 2-3 weeks isolation AT THE SAME TIME. The problem is different communities are shutting down at different times, and will no doubt reopen at different, staggered times. This would be fine for individual communities that were isolated from the rest of the world, but people travel. A "fire" could be extinguished within a community, but only then be started again once somebody new travels into the community once it is reopened or someone travels to an infected place and returns. Then we are back to the beginning of this process.

That is why I wish the whole country would have been shut down last weekend of even earlier. We would already been a week into this flattening the curve, with only a week or two to go before we could begin to return to our normal lives. Instead because of the prolonged, disjointed response that allowed spreading to continue, we are only in the beginning of our needed isolation.

I'm really concerned about the travel issue once we begin to come out of this. Can you restrict people from traveling? You don't want a community that was once all clear to go back to once again fighting the virus. Would you be okay to returning to life but only within your city limits? Say for two weeks before limits can be opened again? I feel like that is the answer in how we shorten this but there is no way we can control that I'm afraid. Also a gradual recovery were larger groups are permitted slowly: first 50, then a few days later 100, then a week later 1000 and so on before we can fill large stadiums or events again. Another thing that should happen but probably won't. I'm not sure how big cities like New York, which is currently the epicenter and will be on a different timeline than everyone else, how you can prohibit traveling there or prevent their residents from traveling to you. That will be something we will have to consider.

In the meantime, please just do your part by respecting the orders and staying inside aside from buying essentials because that is how this ends faster. Short term pain for a quicker recovery. If you don't respect that, YOU will be the reason this continues into the summer.

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Yep

Unfortunately people only respect consequences readily apparent and threatening to them. Most Americans haven't been directly affected by the medical aspect of this disease (their family and friends) and aren't seeing what it's really like so they don't respect the consequences of their lack of compliance. They only see the social consequences.

Only once every American knows someone whose life has been taken by this, and rest assured that will be the case a year from now if we dont follow through with this, will they come to know what you and I know. Once they see what we see every day on the hospital, they'll realize how wrong they were. And by then it will be far too late.

I pray we as a society listen before then

JD05AG said:

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I'm guessing 2 years. Once an easily attained vaccination is available.

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China is already back to normal. Stop trolling

Maybe you say to the high-risk folks, you don't have to come back. It's not "mandatory". Make due with 80% or whatever of staff.

BTW, you say the same to the parents of the kids. If they don't want to come back, they don't have to. You'd probably be at 70-80% right there too, so it might actually work out.

Aust Ag said:

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Maybe you say to the high-risk folks, you don't have to come back. It's not "mandatory". Make due with 80% or whatever of staff.

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Won't work

But that 80 percent would still not be social distancing. Social distance is the only way to bring this under control.

Crocs said:

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Most projections that you're seeing through major sources (ie. The Washington Post) are saying that we as a society need to stay hunkered down for 18 months. Through every lens (economic, human, social, etc.), that is INCREDIBLY unsustainable.

Every projection and warning and prediction that you're seeing is on the basis that we won't have a vaccine for this in a year and a half. Almost all of them don't account for the fact that we're rapidly figuring out treatments with each passing day.

Will things be normal again soon? Doubtful. But will we start to see things get better soon? It looks like it.

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Lol. We will be killing one another long before then. What a laughably dumb thing for them to say.

rgag12 said:

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JD05AG said:

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I'm guessing 2 years. Once an easily attained vaccination is available.

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China is already back to normal. Stop trolling

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That's not even remotely true. Even IF you accept their official reports as accurate (highly debatable) they still have sweeping regulations in place to combat this.

I'm not saying do this in the next week or two. I'm thinking May.

OK. I thought you meant right now.

What I would like to see it restart.

I would say finish out this year online.

Move up start dates for next year to July 10th, after the 4th holiday. That would allow for taking off a full month in the cold weather times if this thing bounces back next year like some expect. Go to a NEW school calendar. Not quite year round but with a semester that starts during the relatively safe from virus warm months. A six week break during the cold months (taking themonth early start and existing Christmas breaks) and then a second term. Six weeks off in the summer and then go again.

I don't think we should have done nothing...I'm mostly ok with what we've done at this point. But much further into "month" or "18 months" to me is way over the top.

I will probably get ridiculed by some here for my comments but so be it.

The new normal is that this strain of Corona will be thrown into the cycle of potential outbreaks every year just like the various flu strains. Immunity is something that is built over time and cannot be forced through vaccination as we do not know how this strain will mutate (reports have it currently mutating to a less virulent form are going around the news wire) nor how those strains will effect us season to season.

I cant stress this next point enough.... The absolute critical component to all this is effective timely testing (much faster than 3 days on results.... I would prefer a few minutes) and effective treatment to all that are infected and not just symptomatic in the near term. The long term plan will be solved through the effectiveness of the near term strategies. Most who are in serious condition have to be intibated around ~15 days after contracting the virus and 5-7 says after onset of symptoms. If you are treating within a few days from onset symptoms with proven antiviral treatment.... You reduce serious condition cases exponentially. This is why HCQ could be a game changer but we need a few weeks of time to validate this and allow all the manufacturing to ramp up. Testing is the next challenge and we need a dire focus to speed up diagnosis time.

Just my opinion

3rd Generation Ag said:

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OK. I thought you meant right now.

What I would like to see it restart.

I would say finish out this year online.

Move up start dates for next year to July 10th, after the 4th holiday. That would allow for taking off a full month in the cold weather times if this thing bounces back next year like some expect. Go to a NEW school calendar. Not quite year round but with a semester that starts during the relatively safe from virus warm months. A six week break during the cold months (taking themonth early start and existing Christmas breaks) and then a second term. Six weeks off in the summer and then go again.

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Not bad, but this looks like maybe football in the summer? Not sure we can do that! Not in Texas! Even at night, haha!

1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:

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I don't think we should have done nothing...I'm mostly ok with what we've done at this point. But much further into "month" or "18 months" to me is way over the top.

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If we have no vaccine, no cure, no herd immunity, what is supposed to stop the disease?

Crocs said:

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Most projections that you're seeing through major sources (ie. The Washington Post) are saying that we as a society need to stay hunkered down for 18 months.

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I have read hundreds of articles and papers on this subject and, other than maybe an oddball, I have not seen any serious commentary from the healthcare side or politics side suggesting anything close to 18 months.

If we can have the off time to coincide with deer season, I could get behind this message.

Social distancing obviously to some extent. But shutting down businesses, ruining people's source of income, throwing away millions of people's retirement etc to me feels like we might be falling on the sword pre-maturely. This is my stance mainly in response to the potential complete lockdown that has been rumored to happen next week and the idea that this should continue for "month" or "18 months" that was mentioned early on in this OP.

8-9 months. Baby Boom 2 will force this to be over then.


All kidding aside, what happens next flu season? And the one after? New virus strains pop up regularly. The first tool we reach for can't be quarantine every year, obviously.

You're 100% right on the importance of rapid testing, and that is something that we already have the technology for - we just have to ramp it up and apply it to this new virus.

I suspect by the end of Summer we'll have widely available testing that can run in-office and give you more or less immediate results. This comes down to engineering and production - and we are going to crush this one

My dad, Class of '50, occasional TexAgs poster and WWII vet, is 94 has mild CHF but is very mobile for his age and we have kept the CHF under control. He has obviously isolated himself and has a great care-giver who understands the seriousness of this pandemic. With that said, I am resigned to the fact that this virus will likely be the 'thing' that gets him eventually. The odds of him catching it 'at some point' in the future are probably equal to or higher than any other medical event that might take him down. So 'back to normal' will never quite be the same.

Want to see numbers from 3 months of h1n1- figure that is what we are into. Want o hear result stories like Baller's. Gregg County has a case 2 weeks ago- no word on condition.

Lol, what are those who have gotten over it going to do- they are sick of being inside.

G Martin 87 said:

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8-9 months. Baby Boom 2 will force this to be over then.


All kidding aside, what happens next flu season? And the one after? New virus strains pop up regularly. The first tool we reach for can't be quarantine every year, obviously.

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Nothing with this combination of infectivity and virulence with a mortality hovering around 1% has hit the US this hard in a hundred years.

We are sheltered in place through April 7th but I do not expect it to end there. I believe it will be renewed for another 3 weeks so not sure it will return to normal but I am thinking less restrictions to some degree by end of April. It's not fun but I've never had so much time off as an adult so a week in and far from miserable.

we begin to see a strong urge for normalcy after a few of these happen:

1) the # of new cases declines for a couple days in a row
2) when we get a solid week of new cases hovering around 100 instead of 2,000
3) solid clinical evidence these malaria drugs work.
4) when healthcare officials are confident that new cases + existing cases are no longer a threat to overrun the system.

we need to pray that is a < 8 week time frame or we will have bigger problems than COVID-19.

I certainly don't mean to be insensitive at all to those who have died or gotten sick. But more people have probably died on their way to the grocery store to get groceries bc of Covid 19 than from the virus itself. I understand the "rather be safe than sorry" approach that we are taking now but to what extent?? Again, the numbers just don't make sense to me and I know this is making some roll their eyes but if I told you all this "shutdown, lockdown, economy crash, schools out likely for rest of year etc" and asked you how many people were to die from it in the US your answer would be FAR more than 200.

Quote:

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I certainly don't mean to be insensitive at all to those who have died or gotten sick. But more people have probably died on their way to the grocery store to get groceries bc of Covid 19 than from the virus itself. I understand the "rather be safe than sorry" approach that we are taking now but to what extent?? Again, the numbers just don't make sense to me and I know this is making some roll their eyes but if I told you all this "shutdown, lockdown, economy crash, schools out likely for rest of year etc" and asked you how many people were to die from it in the US your answer would be FAR more than 200.

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Have you ready anything about the projections? Anything from the CDC? Listened to infectious disease guys?

Just curious.

Listened to Retired Major General Vincent Boles on a recent radio show yesterday, and I know some of his quotes might be thought of as clich, but I thought I'd post some of them that stuck in my head after listening to his talk.

"In the military there is a saying, you can't choose the mission, but you can choose how you execute it."

"You have to be at your best when a situation is at its worst."

"Tough times do not build character. They reveal character."

"There is no B-Team. Everybody plays an important role, from a doctor treating patients to a truck driver delivering goods to a store to a person staying at home."

"When times are bad, reach out to and communicate with positive people. Don't dwell on negativity. Each day that passes, is one day closer to the end of this thing. We'll get through this."

1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:

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Just seems odd that we're doing all this to our economy, businesses, and livelihood over 204 deaths nationally. I understand the 2-3 week lockdown but to even discuss months, much less 18 months, is absolutely insane. I'll get roasted but this is a discussion forum and those are my thoughts. Please don't respond with the things that prove you right.

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FIFY

I do believe that if we let American innovation and ingenuity loose, we will have a solution sooner rather than later.

How do we increase the number of ventilators?

Is there anything that can be done to replace ventilators?

Is there something that can be done to allow the lower number of ventilators to help more patients?


For one example of how letting people's ingenuity help, to help reduce wasteage of PPE, a hospital started keeping the IV bags/trees in the hallway with longer tubes to the patients so the nurses don't have to replace their PPE after each checking of IVs.

I have supreme confidence in the innovation and ingenuity of the American Worker to help reduce the time it takes to "get through" this.

Nothing ground-breaking here, but discusses what most of us are thinking from the 2:45-11:00 marks.

Yes.

I've seen the phrase "magical thinking" thrown around, usually directed at those who would suggest that the solution is imminent. And maybe that's true.

But, the idea that the entire world would be able to quarantine themselves for 18 months to 2 years is also 100% magical thinking. It's believing in unicorns. It is unsustainable and unrealistic.

1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:

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Yes.

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OK. So what part of those projections don't make sense to you?

Is it because we have not reached those projections yet?

Ranger222 said:

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Just a reminder that the "we are free people, we'll just go about our business while the rest of you sit indoors" is EXACTLY the stupid mentality that will drag this out longer and contribute to virus spreading.

We all need 2-3 weeks isolation AT THE SAME TIME. The problem is different communities are shutting down at different times, and will no doubt reopen at different, staggered times. This would be fine for individual communities that were isolated from the rest of the world, but people travel. A "fire" could be extinguished within a community, but only then be started again once somebody new travels into the community once it is reopened or someone travels to an infected place and returns. Then we are back to the beginning of this process.

That is why I wish the whole country would have been shut down last weekend of even earlier. We would already been a week into this flattening the curve, with only a week or two to go before we could begin to return to our normal lives. Instead because of the prolonged, disjointed response that allowed spreading to continue, we are only in the beginning of our needed isolation.

I'm really concerned about the travel issue once we begin to come out of this. Can you restrict people from traveling? You don't want a community that was once all clear to go back to once again fighting the virus. Would you be okay to returning to life but only within your city limits? Say for two weeks before limits can be opened again? I feel like that is the answer in how we shorten this but there is no way we can control that I'm afraid. Also a gradual recovery were larger groups are permitted slowly: first 50, then a few days later 100, then a week later 1000 and so on before we can fill large stadiums or events again. Another thing that should happen but probably won't. I'm not sure how big cities like New York, which is currently the epicenter and will be on a different timeline than everyone else, how you can prohibit traveling there or prevent their residents from traveling to you. That will be something we will have to consider.

In the meantime, please just do your part by respecting the orders and staying inside aside from buying essentials because that is how this ends faster. Short term pain for a quicker recovery. If you don't respect that, YOU will be the reason this continues into the summer.

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Great post Ranger...

I'm already expecting to be frustrated beyond belief when they lift all of the heavier restrictions and we see people (mostly in the "it doesn't affect me that much" age range) having "post caronavirus" parties and restaurants packed. There is going to be way too much "we're going to show this that we can overcome it and it can't keep us down" attitude, as if the virus gives a damn about our morale.