agsalaska said:

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1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:

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Yes.

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OK. So what part of those projections don't make sense to you?

Is it because we have not reached those projections yet?

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There seems to be a recurring theme where folks cite the numbers of deaths (which is going to rise, but remain lower than it would be had we not done what has already been done) and cite them as if they would be the exact same had none of these measures been taken. This is like when Hop said we were shutting down the economy to save "a few thousand lives"....

It's like finding out there was contaminated food, shutting down the plant that produces it and then crying about shutting down a whole facility due to only a few people getting really sick.....as if shutting down the facility didn't directly influence that result.

JDCAG (NOT Colin) said:

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agsalaska said:

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1/2 Man 1/2 Amazing said:

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Yes.

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OK. So what part of those projections don't make sense to you?

Is it because we have not reached those projections yet?

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There seems to be a recurring theme where folks cite the numbers of deaths (which is going to rise, but remain lower than it would be had we not done what has already been done) and cite them as if they would be the exact same had none of these measures been taken. This is like when Hop said we were shutting down the economy to save "a few thousand lives"....

It's like finding out there was contaminated food, shutting down the plant that produces it and then crying about shutting down a whole facility due to only a few people getting really sick.....as if shutting down the facility didn't directly influence that result.

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Totally agree. I do not understand how this escapes educated people.

The other part of this that get completely ignored by the same people is the economic impact of doing nothing. People act like somehow our economy would have not been hammered by an uncontrolled pandemic, which is equally ludicrous.

IMO, we can have this contained in 2 to 3 weeks. During that time we would need all non essential workers to work from home, and only leave to pickup groceries and take out food.

During the 2 weeks, the government needs to mandate all manufacturers of N95 masks work around the clock to produce as many masks as possible.

After the 2 or 3 weeks, those that are not sick can return to work and other activities by wearing masks. Restaurants would remain take out only and large venues, concerts, sporting events would be prohibited.

If we don't get as many people back to work in a few weeks, the downfall of the economy will be worse than the virus

I can't believe that educated people WOULDN'T question whether literally shutting down the entire US economy for 1-18 months isn't going to produce more long term suffering and deaths than a more scaled, focused response.

From 1976-2007 in the US, there were an average of 23k deaths per year from the flu. There wasn't any response as drastic as this in any of those years. So it's reasonable to at least discuss how many deaths is worth 300 million people losing their jobs, all savings for their retirement, becoming homeless, losing all funds to react to other crises, etc.

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After the 2 or 3 weeks, those that are not sick can return to work and other activities by wearing masks. Restaurants would remain take out only and large venues, concerts, sporting events would be prohibited.

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N95 masks? That's not going to help - wearing one properly, even a young person would be winded by a short walk wearing one (wife is an RN and even in her 20s it was not something she could wear for long continuously). Not to mention, the general public is not likely to wear it properly, and are more likely to infect themselves taking it on/off/adjusting it.

You're brave to mention flu stats here!!! In before "have you even looked at the numbers" crowd. I 100% agree with you.

I write emails for a club sports team that goes out to 100 people. Every time I send an email I instantly get texted or emailed back questions that were very clearly written in the original email. People suck at reading. I feel like some of y'all are doing the exact same.

I don't think anybody is saying we shouldn't have done anything related to quarantining ourselves. Obviously that was the best/quickest thing to do to help curve this thing. But when you look at the numbers of infections, deaths, recoveries and also look at the economy, stock market, business owners, people who work in service industries etc, how can that not at least be discussed?? Why should we so quickly swat down those that do want to discuss?? This is a discussion forum.

To simply just overlook that to me is asinine.

Ag Defense Rules said:

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I can't believe that educated people WOULDN'T question whether literally shutting down the entire US economy for 1-18 months isn't going to produce more long term suffering and deaths than a more scaled, focused response.

From 1976-2007 in the US, there were an average of 23k deaths per year from the flu. There wasn't any response as drastic as this in any of those years. So it's reasonable to at least discuss how many deaths is worth 300 million people losing their jobs, all savings for their retirement, becoming homeless, losing all funds to react to other crises, etc.

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First, the only place I see 18 being thrown around is Texags who is getting it from fringe writers and reports. I have seen nobody who matter saying anything anywhere close to 18 months. 18 months wont work or happen. We all know that.

Second, you used the 23k deaths as a benchmark. Go read the CDV estimates of the potential Coronavirus deaths in the US and worldwide. 23k is a drop in the bucket. If they were only concerned about 23k I probably wouldn't have ever even heard of it.

Thays like Hop saying 'a few thousand lives' That's not what this is about.

I understand that. But I have almost stopped reading this forum because I worry first about staying alive. Really worry about it, For my entire family.

I also worry and pray about the economy but it is a distant second.

If we can stay alive we can rebuild. The infrastruction is there. And rebuild quicktly.

Easy to see how so many Texans fell for Jade Helm and support Alex Jones.

This is what I'm afraid will happen here -- a 2nd wave of cases is beginning to be seen in the data coming from Asia. Need more data points so we will know by the middle of the week if this is a real thing --

Our leaders main concern right now should be on getting adequate healthcare treatments and support for our hospitals.

However, the idea of "what happens next" when the cases/hospitalizations number starts to slow is something I have been thinking a lot about and something they should really consider before it gets away from them. I may make a separate thread later on my ideas/thoughts.

neAGle96 said:

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IMO, we can have this contained in 2 to 3 weeks. During that time we would need all non essential workers to work from home, and only leave to pickup groceries and take out food.

During the 2 weeks, the government needs to mandate all manufacturers of N95 masks work around the clock to produce as many masks as possible.

After the 2 or 3 weeks, those that are not sick can return to work and other activities by wearing masks. Restaurants would remain take out only and large venues, concerts, sporting events would be prohibited.

If we don't get as many people back to work in a few weeks, the downfall of the economy will be worse than the virus

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I agree, except for government mandates. Maybe "financially incentivize" would be better.

Last week, I think I heard a hedge fund manager say he put all his cash into the market because he could not see this lasting more than 30 days. (He also advocated for a complete 30-day shutdown.) If it does, the whole economy tanks for a really really long time. I agree with him. This shouldn't go on much longer . . . we can't afford it to. The problem is that government is always overly cautious going into an emergency and overly cautious coming out. The incentives for government to act just don't align with the concerns of everyday people.

I get the safety precautions, but it's time to get our economy back on track. We are a Americans, we will find a way to make it work.

I doubt many city governments can survive more than a few more weeks.
Cities depend on sales and hospitality tax for revenue.
Counties assess property taxes which were just paid so they will last a little longer.
The sustained loss of sales tax revenue may bankrupt many Texas cities. I suspect that we will all need to go back to work in 3-4 weeks max to avoid entire societal collapse

Win At Life said:

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A key measure that things are working would be a sustained reduction in new confirmed cases each day.

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Nope.

Cases will increase for a good while due to more tests being available and more reported. As more cases are presented we'll see the rate of death & serious cases drop dramatically. All the in-depth data shows a minuscule mortality rate for those without associated risk factors.

FrioAg 00 said:

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Conservative states and cities will feel more pressure from their constituents to respond to the economy, and likely begin the reopening process in towards the end of April or in May.

CDC and other federal bureaucracies (immune to economic realities) will likely drag a few months behind, but they'll start being widely ignored during that time.

Schools are pretty likely to cancel for the rest of the school year.

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Then all this will be for naught. Starting up too soon will undo any positive progress.

AgResearch said:

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EwingBarnes said:

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Government better get this figured out quickly.

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No, it's time for the community to figure "it" out. And "it" is to stay home as much as possible, good hygiene, avoid groups, and limit time in enclosed public spaces. It will help to slow the spread and the loss of life.

If we can do that then the medical professionals and government can focus on the next tasks which are to evaluate medical therapies to get ahead of the virus.

If we don't do that then the medical community will have to focus on only stopping death and the government will have to focus on more extreme lockdown measures.

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You don't know people very well do you? You also don't seem to understand how much money matters to US citizens. This will not be sustainable and the coming week will start to show that.

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Then all this will be for naught. Starting up too soon will undo any positive progress.

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The dangers of a failed economy and the chaos and violence that follows will be far worse than this virus. Most people are already realizing that. In two weeks everyone will know it

Neches21 said:

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Then all this will be for naught. Starting up too soon will undo any positive progress.

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The dangers of a failed economy and the chaos and violence that follows will be far worse than this virus. Most people are already realizing that. In two weeks everyone will know it

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Nobody can possibly "know" that and anyone claiming as much is dismissing what nearly every expert on the subject has said.

You act like a a million dead would be a nice calm humming machine of an economy.

Neches21 said:

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Quote:

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Then all this will be for naught. Starting up too soon will undo any positive progress.

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The dangers of a failed economy and the chaos and violence that follows will be far worse than this virus. Most people are already realizing that. In two weeks everyone will know it

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If left unchecked it is entirely reasonable to conclude that the economy would be wrecked anyway.

It seems TX is watching the very closely what happens in WA, NY, CA which gives us some major advantages

1. We're able to sit back and see if things explode (while following WFH/social distancing)
2. Get to see what treatments are effective there
3. Supply chain should ramp up for testing, masks, vents etc.

The economy is already wrecked. I'm not talking about saving the economy.
I'm talking about allowing people to go back to work. Many will have to find new jobs but they at least need the opportunity to care for their families.
People need food to eat and something to occupy their time or bad things happen.

Aust Ag said:

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MI'm not saying do this in the next week or two. I'm thinking May.

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Aust Ag, there are so many unknowns it is way to early to even formulate a realistic opinion. I say sit tight and give it 3 weeks, though It would be helpful if every state were shut down as we really are approaching this half ass which will further delay any viable resolution. We need more data to bother with mythical time frames based upon more then what we want to happen.

Looks like Tarrant county getting shutting down. How the fk do they intend to pay our bills?

CT75 said:

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My dad, Class of '50, occasional TexAgs poster and WWII vet, is 94 has mild CHF but is very mobile for his age and we have kept the CHF under control. He has obviously isolated himself and has a great care-giver who understands the seriousness of this pandemic. With that said, I am resigned to the fact that this virus will likely be the 'thing' that gets him eventually. The odds of him catching it 'at some point' in the future are probably equal to or higher than any other medical event that might take him down. So 'back to normal' will never quite be the same.

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I lost my dad a year ago and have actually been grateful I don't have to worry about him. Prayers for your dad, he sounds like a resilient guy.

two93ags said:

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I've seen the phrase "magical thinking" thrown around, usually directed at those who would suggest that the solution is imminent. And maybe that's true.

But, the idea that the entire world would be able to quarantine themselves for 18 months to 2 years is also 100% magical thinking. It's believing in unicorns. It is unsustainable and unrealistic.

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It's also not based in reality anymore then thinking this isn't a big deal is.

I don't see why our economy can't adapt to this new normal. Amazon and the internet have already transformed the way the world works. I personally don't think the all out quarantine lasts into the summer and think we will gradually reach a "new normal" by September. HOWEVER, this is an opportunity for more people to learn about, leverage, and push the limits of WFH and the digital economy.
Yes, dining our and bars will suffer. But take-out (a la Favor) and all kinds of opportunities could be created from these situations. Once the fear subsides, I really think there will be some interesting, value-add, permanent innovations.

I mean this is obviously a horrible nightmare that may kill hundreds of thousands of people, and/or send us into a decade-long economic depression and grow the government to a degree that destroys our way of life...but from a purely entertainment and information standpoint, what a great time in world history to have a quarantine! Easy to keep in touch with friends and family. Endless shows and educational material to watch. Virtual workout programs. Bread and Online Circuses for everyone!

neAGle96 said:

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IMO, we can have this contained in 2 to 3 weeks. During that time we would need all non essential workers to work from home, and only leave to pickup groceries and take out food.

During the 2 weeks, the government needs to mandate all manufacturers of N95 masks work around the clock to produce as many masks as possible.

After the 2 or 3 weeks, those that are not sick can return to work and other activities by wearing masks. Restaurants would remain take out only and large venues, concerts, sporting events would be prohibited.

If we don't get as many people back to work in a few weeks, the downfall of the economy will be worse than the virus

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I'll let you know how it goes since your boundaries are was we've been living under since Monday. Problem would be the parents who let their teens hang in large groups. Come on parents, your kids also must follow the rules. Spend some time with them, it doesn't hurt.

This will stop when the curve peaks. A drop in the daily death toll that continues for 3-4 days.