Hoping for some good updates.

;Normal here in Virginia. Went out and took a 30min ride. All smooth. Plenty of people out and about.

Is Italy harder hit or just able to test more? I know they have experience a high death rate which may be more related to their population age etc.

I suspect that as the US gains the ability to test, we will see a sharp rise in cases.

Catag94 said:

---

Is Italy harder hit or just able to test more? I know they have experience a high death rate which may be more related to their population age etc.

I suspect that as the US gains the ability to test, we will see a sharp rise in cases.

---

Yes they have been hit harder. Look up the BBC report from their most advanced hospital and look online for the story of the military trucks lined up to take bodies south because Lombardy ran out space to cremate them. That's not a rumor.

Catag94 said:

---

Is Italy harder hit or just able to test more? I know they have experience a high death rate which may be more related to their population age etc.

I suspect that as the US gains the ability to test, we will see a sharp rise in cases.

---

Are Italians more susceptible to the virus? (family from NY who lost many loved ones were Italian.)

We need to do whatever Germany is doing...per the below website they have over 20k cases and 73 deaths Let's learn from the countries doing well and not just freak out about Italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

ranchag04 said:

---

Catag94 said:

---

Is Italy harder hit or just able to test more? I know they have experience a high death rate which may be more related to their population age etc.

I suspect that as the US gains the ability to test, we will see a sharp rise in cases.

---

Are Italians more susceptible to the virus? (family from NY who lost many loved ones were Italian.)

---

I don't mean to be rude. But that family looked really obese and unhealthy. Again, I hope that doesn't come off as bad form, but we should all be aware that a persons health has a lot to do with survival of this and any disease

I have read the reports of what's happening in Italy. I have looked at the numbers from Italy. Not real point is that apparently we in America are so short on test

gougler08 said:

---

We need to do whatever Germany is doing...per the below website they have over 20k cases and 73 deaths Let's learn from the countries doing well and not just freak out about Italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

---

They are only counting deaths with zero co-morbidities.

So if you have hypertension? You died from that, not covid-19.

They are the only country doing that.

PJYoung said:

---

gougler08 said:

---

We need to do whatever Germany is doing...per the below website they have over 20k cases and 73 deaths Let's learn from the countries doing well and not just freak out about Italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

---

They are only counting deaths with zero co-morbidities.

So if you have hypertension? You died from that, not covid-19.

They are the only country doing that.

---

Ahh makes sense

Quote:

---

https://www.foxnews.com/health/germany-coronavirus-outbreak-no-deaths

"Germany (is) working hard to retrace the steps of people who contracted the virus, and their methods of 'tracking of the infection chains' are helping in the reduction. All events with more than 1,000 participants are to be canceled," explained Dr. Norman Fried, a medical expert and professor at Columbia University. "Huge public fairs are being scrapped, including Berlin's travel fest ITB and the Leipzig Book Fair, as well as the postponement of many other public events. Rules governing compensation for workers forced to cut hours are being eased."

---

Quote:

---

Fried furthermore emphasized that, at least up until Monday, Germany's actions had been "harsher and more stringent than those in Northern Italy where a rising death toll is occurring."

"Italy's higher death toll may also be a function of the age of their citizens," he said, noting that Italy has the oldest population in the world. "More specifically, the average age rate of those who have died in Italy was 81 thus far, the majority of whom were already suffering underlying health problems."

---

Quote:

---

"The Germans have taken this disease seriously since December. They are committed to transparency, testing and have devoted a huge amount of resources to track sources of what appears to be community spread so that the root cause of each chain can be found and those connected in any way can be warned, isolated, tested, etc.," he said.

---

Quote:

---

"Everyone is insured. When self-employed, your premium is according to your income, when employed, you and your employer split to in a fair manner, and if you cannot afford healthcare at all, the government steps in," she said. "But one can opt for private plans either for full coverage or to supplement one's public plan. In Germany, it is all over the news right now how Americans are scared to go to the doctor and test for coronavirus due to fear of the costs. That fear does not exist in Germany; people go to the doctor the minute they feel symptoms for anything unusual, and as a result, they get immediate medical treatment."

---

Quote:

---

"Our model predicted that the past days of February to mid-March would generate a significant uptick in Europe, [then] on to the West coast of Asia. While the air mass pattern [dry air] is far less active than in the middle U.S., the U.S. did not have the cases [seeds] as did Europe," he said. "Europe appears to have succumbed to a bit moister spring while the U.S. keeps oscillating [from] moist to dry every five days or so."

---

Quote:

---

"Germany is as prepared as it can possibly be. They have an infrastructure that includes a network of centers of expertise and special clinics which they claim is unmatched by international standards," said Mark Emalfarb, CEO and founder of global biotechnology company Dyadic International. "They also claim to have a very good disease warning and notification system, as well as excellent pandemic preparedness plans. In addition, it has been reported that regular emergency training exercises are conducted at airports in Germany."

---

Quote:

---

Others, such as German journalist Heiko Roloff, highlighted that the reasons behind Germany's fewer deaths might be multi-pronged.

"Luck and timing or the lack of it. Italy just got hit early with travelers bringing the virus into their country," Roloff said. "So when it spread, and the first casualties were reported, the rest of Europe was on high alert. And doctors are accessible for pretty much everybody."

---

If Germany is testing extensively as indicated above then her may be the real issue: It has been pretty clear that here in the US, we have very limiting testing capabilities. This likely translates to we have 5-6 times the number of cases we are showing on Worldometers' site. If true, I'd suggest our CFR is in line with Germany's.

This article goes into detail about the data. It states the chance of infection are much lower than the perception that is out there right now.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Moxley said:

---

shalackin said:

---

This article goes into detail about the data. It states the chance of infection are much lower than the perception that is out there right now.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

---

That guy is a professional blog writer, not in any sort of position to be making the assumptions he's making. People keep posting that article as if somehow this guy is an expert when in truth he's an opinion writer with no expertise whatsoever in epidemiology.

---

This is the positivity thread. Take your negativity elsewhere. Lol.

Blog winter or not, his argument isn't necessarily wrong.

shalackin said:

---

Blog winter or not, his argument isn't necessarily wrong.

---

Ok. I'm going to write a blog post now about how the sky will turn yellow and the world will start spinning backwards. I won't necessarily be wrong. After all, I'm a blogger and you'd better damn well listen to what I say.

Be sure to have plenty of data with it.

Quote:

---

Ok. I'm going to write a blog post now about how the sky will turn yellow and the world will start spinning backwards. I won't necessarily be wrong. After all, I'm a blogger and you'd better damn well listen to what I say.

---

You seem to be shooting the messenger based on his title and cannot articulate any specific gripe with the core points in his argument. Try to dig in and illustrate specifically what you find incorrect in the arguments. They are all based on reputable sources and cite very specific language. Maybe they are wrong but just *****ing and moaning because the guy is a blogger is not helpful to anyone.

PJYoung said:

---

---

This seems too good to be true. None of the commercial health labs can do it in less than two days. Are those 45 minute tests actually accurate?

La Bamba said:

---

PJYoung said:

---

---

This seems too good to be true. None of the commercial health labs can do it in less than two days. Are those 45 minute tests actually accurate?

---

South Korea can do it in 7 minutes

So why didn't the big labs (Labcorp, Bioreference, Quest Diagnostics, etc.) not come up with this sooner? Not trying to be adversarial just trying to understand.

La Bamba said:

---

So why didn't the big labs (Labcorp, Bioreference, Quest Diagnostics, etc.) not come up with this sooner? Not trying to be adversarial just trying to understand.

---

*shrug* no idea I'm guessing they need a lead time and some countries were prepared and some weren't.

Because lab Corp, etc do not have equipment at the doctors office. They are large processing labs that are centrally located. That rapid test is performed in a relative inexpensive desk top piece of equipment. These are located at Walgreens, outpatient clinics, doc offices etc. it took the design team a little longer to get the assay to work on their rapid platform. The great news is that this is the first and that means there are likely others coming from other manufactures that use rapid tests. The other positive is these kits are made in the US.

Johnny2Fan said:

---

Thread has gone south. It's a good news thread. Anyone got anything positive???

---

Mortality rate in America keeps dropping at a rapid pace. It should be under 1% within a few days.

I hope/think the curve will start flattening as we approach 100k positives.

It sucks for New York obviously, but they account for 45% of US positives with the next state having ~1,800.

La Bamba said:

---

So why didn't the big labs (Labcorp, Bioreference, Quest Diagnostics, etc.) not come up with this sooner? Not trying to be adversarial just trying to understand.

---

The company that developed the test, Cepheid, specializes, in the field of automated testing, specifically high speed diagnostic test method development . The big labs focus is high throughput sample processing vs test method development and validation.