Bondag said:
Wouldn't a CAT 3 be more likely to move quickly through and not stall and dump water?
No steering currents to move it out of the area. The locations forecasted for the storm on Saturday and Tuesday are almost identical right now.
Bondag said:
Wouldn't a CAT 3 be more likely to move quickly through and not stall and dump water?
You would think this, but according to my buddy who follows this stuff closely, no.Bondag said:
Wouldn't a CAT 3 be more likely to move quickly through and not stall and dump water?
If it makes you feel better, my wife is in charge of TCH's response. You and your child will be fine. Of course, she'll be in the command bunker all weekend, so I get the remote.zap said:
My kid is currently hospitalized at Texas Children's. I hope I get him out prior to any flooding.
MAS444 said:
So is landfall expected to be Friday or Saturday? Any credible estimate on the rain/wind/surge/etc along the coast tomorrow afternoon/evening? I'm still being told the Alice deal is on because it won't be that bad tomorrow afternoon....
Estimates of 50,000 extra people or 1500 extra pick up trucks on the roadCowtownAg06 said:
Tomorrow afternoon shouldn't be too bad down there..... The problem is going to be getting caught up with all the other people leaving the coast Friday afternoon.
High school graduate here too. ****'s really hitting close to home.cwpaggie07 said:
I graduated from high school with Steve Radack's son. Really makes you think...
It's never happened in recorded history, but then nothing about this storm is traditional or regular. If this has a worst case scenario, 50 inches may be possible in some areas. A tropical storm parking itself for 5 days over an area like what this storm may do will be catastrophic and would shatter rainfall records. A widespread 3 to 4 feet of rainfall with isolate areas over 4 feet is simply unprecedented. This could be a 10,000 year flood event if the worst case scenario happens.CDUB98 said:Quote:
Colorado County is projected to get 50+ inches
Seriously? When is the last time ANYWHERE in TX got 50+ inches of rain.
Revival03 said:
My international data plan is almost full so I don't have the means to scour all the internet sources right now. Can someone tell me whether flights scheduled to come in around 2pm Saturday are expected to be cancelled?? Appreciate any help!
Quote:
This will not have immediate drastic effects for Houston, and while intermittent heavy storms and gusty winds are possible through Saturday, conditions for travel seem OK at this time.
By Sunday, running through about Wednesday, the greater Houston region will be at risk for very heavy rainfall and potentially widespread flooding, and coastal regions may be most at risk. If you are traveling later on Sunday or early next week, your flights may be delayed or canceled.
seriously....where do you come by the data for your analysis?NAP Violator said:It's never happened in recorded history, but then nothing about this storm is traditional or regular. If this has a worst case scenario, 50 inches may be possible in some areas. A tropical storm parking itself for 5 days over an area like what this storm may do will be catastrophic and would shatter rainfall records. A widespread 3 to 4 feet of rainfall with isolate areas over 4 feet is simply unprecedented. This could be a 10,000 year flood event if the worst case scenario happens.CDUB98 said:Quote:
Colorado County is projected to get 50+ inches
Seriously? When is the last time ANYWHERE in TX got 50+ inches of rain.
I would not take this story lightly at all.
found NAP Violators picNAP Violator said:It's never happened in recorded history, but then nothing about this storm is traditional or regular. If this has a worst case scenario, 50 inches may be possible in some areas. A tropical storm parking itself for 5 days over an area like what this storm may do will be catastrophic and would shatter rainfall records. A widespread 3 to 4 feet of rainfall with isolate areas over 4 feet is simply unprecedented. This could be a 10,000 year flood event if the worst case scenario happens.CDUB98 said:Quote:
Colorado County is projected to get 50+ inches
Seriously? When is the last time ANYWHERE in TX got 50+ inches of rain.
I would not take this story lightly at all.
Eh I have a background in meteorology from my undergrad. However, I don't work in the field. I'm just saying that a hurricane remaining stationary for days close to the coast is a recipe for an enormous rain event. When the NHC is predicting isolated areas of 30 inches of rain, that's when you know it's going to be bad because the NHC always tends to go with the lower end on their estimates to keep panic down.Sid said:seriously....where do you come by the data for your analysis?NAP Violator said:It's never happened in recorded history, but then nothing about this storm is traditional or regular. If this has a worst case scenario, 50 inches may be possible in some areas. A tropical storm parking itself for 5 days over an area like what this storm may do will be catastrophic and would shatter rainfall records. A widespread 3 to 4 feet of rainfall with isolate areas over 4 feet is simply unprecedented. This could be a 10,000 year flood event if the worst case scenario happens.CDUB98 said:Quote:
Colorado County is projected to get 50+ inches
Seriously? When is the last time ANYWHERE in TX got 50+ inches of rain.
I would not take this story lightly at all.
Nothing you've said resembles either historical accuracy, current projections, or the data being put out to all Harris County emergency offices as of 2 hours ago. "Without historical precedent" is fear-mongering.NAP Violator said:Eh I have a background in meteorology from my undergrad. However, I don't work in the field. I'm just saying that a hurricane remaining stationary for days close to the coast is a recipe for an enormous rain event. When the NHC is predicting isolated areas of 30 inches of rain, that's when you know it's going to be bad because the NHC always tends to go with the lower end on their estimates to keep panic down.Sid said:seriously....where do you come by the data for your analysis?NAP Violator said:It's never happened in recorded history, but then nothing about this storm is traditional or regular. If this has a worst case scenario, 50 inches may be possible in some areas. A tropical storm parking itself for 5 days over an area like what this storm may do will be catastrophic and would shatter rainfall records. A widespread 3 to 4 feet of rainfall with isolate areas over 4 feet is simply unprecedented. This could be a 10,000 year flood event if the worst case scenario happens.CDUB98 said:Quote:
Colorado County is projected to get 50+ inches
Seriously? When is the last time ANYWHERE in TX got 50+ inches of rain.
I would not take this story lightly at all.
Good point (and increased concrete cover to match). It would take the mother of all storms to make me evacuate.AlaskanAg99 said:
Other things to consider. In '01 with Allison, Harris County pop was 3.48M and Houston at 1.99M. in 2016, HC is 4.59M and CoH 2.35M. 1.11M more people in the county and 0.36M more in the city. Keep that in mind for evacuations for a major event or flooding. Always be ready to shelter in place for awhile.
Are you even paying attention to the models? Many of the models have it more or less stationary for days once it makes landfall and then moving off to the East slowly.Sid said:Nothing you've said resembles either historical accuracy, current projections, or the data being put out to all Harris County emergency offices as of 2 hours ago. "Without historical precedent" is fear-mongering.NAP Violator said:Eh I have a background in meteorology from my undergrad. However, I don't work in the field. I'm just saying that a hurricane remaining stationary for days close to the coast is a recipe for an enormous rain event. When the NHC is predicting isolated areas of 30 inches of rain, that's when you know it's going to be bad because the NHC always tends to go with the lower end on their estimates to keep panic down.Sid said:seriously....where do you come by the data for your analysis?NAP Violator said:It's never happened in recorded history, but then nothing about this storm is traditional or regular. If this has a worst case scenario, 50 inches may be possible in some areas. A tropical storm parking itself for 5 days over an area like what this storm may do will be catastrophic and would shatter rainfall records. A widespread 3 to 4 feet of rainfall with isolate areas over 4 feet is simply unprecedented. This could be a 10,000 year flood event if the worst case scenario happens.CDUB98 said:Quote:
Colorado County is projected to get 50+ inches
Seriously? When is the last time ANYWHERE in TX got 50+ inches of rain.
I would not take this story lightly at all.
Localized flooding of 20 inches of widespread rainfall? That's what you call localized? Houston is going to be on the bad side of the storm with a constant on-shore flow of rainfall. This situation lasting for days is going to be very very bad.Sid said:
all projections continue to point to southerly (of Houston) landfall with localized flooding in Houston being worst case. This is not some historical mega-storm without precedent.
I am at Strack and Champion Forest...Dirty Mike and the Boys said:
What area specifically? I went to Klein High School and I lived in one of the adjacent neighborhoods during TS Allison. Anything near Cypress Creek or the neighboring drainage creeks flooded. Cypresswood from Kuykendahl to ~ Champion Forest Dr. was a lake.
blindey said:
So can someone definitively tell me whether we're all gonna die?