Bondag said:

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Wouldn't a CAT 3 be more likely to move quickly through and not stall and dump water?

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No steering currents to move it out of the area. The locations forecasted for the storm on Saturday and Tuesday are almost identical right now.

Bondag said:

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Wouldn't a CAT 3 be more likely to move quickly through and not stall and dump water?

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You would think this, but according to my buddy who follows this stuff closely, no.

Landfall from the outer bands is expected sometime tomorrow afternoon, but the GFS model has been showing fairly consistently the past couple of runs that the majority of rainfall accumulation for Houston is expected to begin late Saturday through Tuesday. The latest run also shows consistent 25-35 knot (28-38 mph) winds beginning tomorrow afternoon through Saturday with maximum winds occurring sometime Sunday around 40 knots. I wouldn't be too concerned at this point about wind or storm surge, just the insane amount of rain accumulation (2 feet+) within this ill-designed concrete jungle.

why on earth would you drive towards a cat3?

I wouldn't...but not entirely my decision.

Scroll Down and on the left you can see all the US GOM imagery:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

MAS444 said:

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So is landfall expected to be Friday or Saturday? Any credible estimate on the rain/wind/surge/etc along the coast tomorrow afternoon/evening? I'm still being told the Alice deal is on because it won't be that bad tomorrow afternoon....

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The weather shouldn't be that bad, but traffic evacuation will be a nightmare.

Tomorrow afternoon shouldn't be too bad down there..... The problem is going to be getting caught up with all the other people leaving the coast Friday afternoon.

So if we get those kind of worst case rain totals, my house is toast.

Now I'm worried it will keep me from heading to the UCLA game.

My international data plan is almost full so I don't have the means to scour all the internet sources right now. Can someone tell me whether flights scheduled to come in around 2pm Saturday are expected to be cancelled?? Appreciate any help!

Revival03 said:

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My international data plan is almost full so I don't have the means to scour all the internet sources right now. Can someone tell me whether flights scheduled to come in around 2pm Saturday are expected to be cancelled?? Appreciate any help!

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I'm in the same boat as you (almost literal boat). I land at 1:55 at IAH. The link posted earlier is helpful - I asked Eric about a 2pm flight to IAH on Saturday and he said it should be ok. Sunday is where the main traffic delays are. But I'm not convinced quite yet.

https://spacecityweather.com/likely-a-hurricane-at-landfall-harvey-approaches-a-wary-texas/#more-4907

Quote:

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This will not have immediate drastic effects for Houston, and while intermittent heavy storms and gusty winds are possible through Saturday, conditions for travel seem OK at this time.

By Sunday, running through about Wednesday, the greater Houston region will be at risk for very heavy rainfall and potentially widespread flooding, and coastal regions may be most at risk. If you are traveling later on Sunday or early next week, your flights may be delayed or canceled.

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Good to know. I appreciate it.

I know we'll be safe at TCH. We just want to recover at home. Just a comfort and convenience factor for us.

I'm scheduled to close on the sale of a house next Friday. If Harvey ****s that up there's gonna be hell to pay.

NAP Violator said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Colorado County is projected to get 50+ inches

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Seriously? When is the last time ANYWHERE in TX got 50+ inches of rain.

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It's never happened in recorded history, but then nothing about this storm is traditional or regular. If this has a worst case scenario, 50 inches may be possible in some areas. A tropical storm parking itself for 5 days over an area like what this storm may do will be catastrophic and would shatter rainfall records. A widespread 3 to 4 feet of rainfall with isolate areas over 4 feet is simply unprecedented. This could be a 10,000 year flood event if the worst case scenario happens.

I would not take this story lightly at all.

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seriously....where do you come by the data for your analysis?

Hopefully, things won't be so bad in Spring/Klein

Sid said:

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NAP Violator said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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Colorado County is projected to get 50+ inches

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Seriously? When is the last time ANYWHERE in TX got 50+ inches of rain.

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It's never happened in recorded history, but then nothing about this storm is traditional or regular. If this has a worst case scenario, 50 inches may be possible in some areas. A tropical storm parking itself for 5 days over an area like what this storm may do will be catastrophic and would shatter rainfall records. A widespread 3 to 4 feet of rainfall with isolate areas over 4 feet is simply unprecedented. This could be a 10,000 year flood event if the worst case scenario happens.

I would not take this story lightly at all.

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seriously....where do you come by the data for your analysis?

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Eh I have a background in meteorology from my undergrad. However, I don't work in the field. I'm just saying that a hurricane remaining stationary for days close to the coast is a recipe for an enormous rain event. When the NHC is predicting isolated areas of 30 inches of rain, that's when you know it's going to be bad because the NHC always tends to go with the lower end on their estimates to keep panic down.

What area specifically? I went to Klein High School and I lived in one of the adjacent neighborhoods during TS Allison. Anything near Cypress Creek or the neighboring drainage creeks flooded. Cypresswood from Kuykendahl to ~ Champion Forest Dr. was a lake.

Other things to consider. In '01 with Allison, Harris County pop was 3.48M and Houston at 1.99M. in 2016, HC is 4.59M and CoH 2.35M. 1.11M more people in the county and 0.36M more in the city. Keep that in mind for evacuations for a major event or flooding. Always be ready to shelter in place for awhile.

all projections continue to point to southerly (of Houston) landfall with localized flooding in Houston being worst case. This is not some historical mega-storm without precedent.

AlaskanAg99 said:

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Other things to consider. In '01 with Allison, Harris County pop was 3.48M and Houston at 1.99M. in 2016, HC is 4.59M and CoH 2.35M. 1.11M more people in the county and 0.36M more in the city. Keep that in mind for evacuations for a major event or flooding. Always be ready to shelter in place for awhile.

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Good point (and increased concrete cover to match). It would take the mother of all storms to make me evacuate.

Sid said:

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NAP Violator said:

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Sid said:

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NAP Violator said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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Colorado County is projected to get 50+ inches

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Seriously? When is the last time ANYWHERE in TX got 50+ inches of rain.

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It's never happened in recorded history, but then nothing about this storm is traditional or regular. If this has a worst case scenario, 50 inches may be possible in some areas. A tropical storm parking itself for 5 days over an area like what this storm may do will be catastrophic and would shatter rainfall records. A widespread 3 to 4 feet of rainfall with isolate areas over 4 feet is simply unprecedented. This could be a 10,000 year flood event if the worst case scenario happens.

I would not take this story lightly at all.

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seriously....where do you come by the data for your analysis?

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Eh I have a background in meteorology from my undergrad. However, I don't work in the field. I'm just saying that a hurricane remaining stationary for days close to the coast is a recipe for an enormous rain event. When the NHC is predicting isolated areas of 30 inches of rain, that's when you know it's going to be bad because the NHC always tends to go with the lower end on their estimates to keep panic down.

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Nothing you've said resembles either historical accuracy, current projections, or the data being put out to all Harris County emergency offices as of 2 hours ago. "Without historical precedent" is fear-mongering.

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Are you even paying attention to the models? Many of the models have it more or less stationary for days once it makes landfall and then moving off to the East slowly.

Dirty Mike and the Boys said:

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What area specifically? I went to Klein High School and I lived in one of the adjacent neighborhoods during TS Allison. Anything near Cypress Creek or the neighboring drainage creeks flooded. Cypresswood from Kuykendahl to ~ Champion Forest Dr. was a lake.

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I am at Strack and Champion Forest...

We were fine the last 5 years during all the other flooding in the area