ULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Special Advisory Number 17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Corrected for extension of Storm Surge Warning

...HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northeast of San Luis
Pass to High Island Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Matagorda Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Matagorda to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.6
West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, and
Harvey's forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the
middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early
Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the
weekend.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is
forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by
Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to
central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches
extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Any idea where we can park our car if I don't have access to a garage? Considering leaving my car at work.

Just talked to a SWA pilot via text. Here is what he said:

I'm scheduled to fly HOU-DAL tomorrow at 6:30 & it's still there. Varies on cancellations sometime they do it the day before or as late as tomorrow morning. Depends on our meteorologists.

He says they'll stop flying at 50 knots sustained winds,70 knot gusts. But if course they'll look at the big picture too.

willie wonka said:

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Spreadsheet, my understanding is nothing flooded in Huntwick during Allison.

Now an oak tree fell on my garage during Ike and we were out of the house for 7 weeks but we were dry.

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Thanks. I was thinking all the Hutwick Ags need to get together at Swanny's for a game

Bondag said:

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WES2006AG said:

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aggieZephyr said:

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girlfriend flies back from Florida on Sunday and lands at IAH at 8:30 PM

To say I am a little nervous would be an understatement

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What is there to be nervous about? Either it is safe to fly and she makes it or she is delayed. Have a drink, the weather is out of your control.

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If its inevitable, relax and enjoy it.

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what changed?

The latest run of the European model has the storm making landfall near Port A, then turning back SE toward the Gulf, restrengthening, then skirting the coastline into east Lousiana. No bueno for the Tine:

well, the intensity is ramping up and the more the landfall creeps north, the more houston is going to have to deal with wind. potentially for an extended period if it stalls out.

thanks

i would have used a sad emoji

More wind for Houston but less rain right?

Mandatories ordered in Port A and POC.

The rain forecast is not decreasing

It is very important for my husband to get to Houston on Monday. Has a flight Sunday afternoon on Southwest. What is the likelihood that that flight will be able to go? Should he go ahead and switch to a Monday morning flight?

i don't think the rain amounts get better in that scenario.

can he travel early on Friday and just stay the weekend in houston until Monday?

AggieSarah01 said:

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It is very important for my husband to get to Houston on Monday. Has a flight Sunday afternoon on Southwest. What is the likelihood that that flight will be able to go? Should he go ahead and switch to a Monday morning flight?

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Monday morning would probably be worse. There's a good chance both of those flights are cancelled, though. I'd advise he pushes it up as early as possible if he absolutely has to come down here.

I'm trying to understand what scenario wouldn't be pushed back if it required a traveler from out of town on Monday.

Do y'all think a Southwest flight out of Houston to Nashville at noon tomorrow will be cancelled? Trying to figure out if it's worth moving the flight to tonight. Already moved it once from 2:30 Fri to noon Friday. Thanks all

Texagsfan2012 said:

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Do y'all think a Southwest flight out of Houston to Nashville at noon tomorrow will be cancelled? Trying to figure out if it's worth moving the flight to tonight. Already moved it once from 2:30 Fri to noon Friday. Thanks all

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Should be fine.

Should be good, forecasts don't have this thing really hitting us until Friday night.

Pahdz said:

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More wind for Houston but less rain right?

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Unfortunately, no, this track still dumps 20+ inches into the county, just much stronger winds. At this point, I think were getting to a high degree of confidence that were going to be seeing at least a foot of rain from this, and likely alot more.

Probably isn't getting on either flight. Depending on what he has to be here for, it's likely he doesn't have to be here.

Spoony Love said:

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I'm trying to understand what scenario wouldn't be pushed back if it required a traveler from out of town on Monday.

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Maybe he works for FEMA?

Sorry if I missed this but what kind of winds are we looking at actually experiencing in Houston?

But would he already be here if FEMA?

Quote:

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$$

Forecaster Berg

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Is a $$$$ forecaster more accurate?

Spoony Love said:

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But would he already be here if FEMA?

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They're working in shifts?