Saturday night's gonna be like
**Official Harvey Thread** Updated Staff Warning on OP 1:50 p.m. 8/27
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Last: 6 yr ago by Patentmike
I'm getting the feeling this storm is a waste of time, energy, and money.
if it ends up being a non-event, I won't have to go to the grocery store for a while so I haven't really wasted anything.
not sure who I have been more impressed by the last two days:Wycliffe_03 said:
Hurricane and flood internet badasses are probably worse than the bipolar women running around Kroger like it's the apocalypse.
Sure, there have been misses in the past because weather is tough to predict, and the news media likes to hype sh**. But Houston has been hit enough times for us to know what could happen if any of these grim predictions are even half correct. Would rather err on the side of caution. Will be happy as hell though if Clay711 ends up being right though and this was all just drummed up panic for nothing.
Any heavy rain/potential flooding forecast puts me on alert these days given how much Houston has been built up in the past decade. Think about neighborhoods like the Heights and surrounding areas and how much construction has gone in. No way there are enough retention ponds to offset it all. Hell, my backyard in OF accumulates water noticeably faster than it did several years ago just due to all of the bigger homes going in. Recently heard that pop has grown by roughly 1MM just since Ike (seems hard to believe though).
a) the hurricane and flood internet badasses; or
b) the karate kids on the politics board cheerleader thread
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but Houston wasn't even supposed to be getting hit hard until late tonight or tomorrow. I keep seeing people talking like it hasn't done what it was supposed to but I didn't even think it was supposed to have gotten here yet.
I'm no meteorologist, but the combination of the really contrived paths and media hype makes me a skeptic. I'll believe it when it actually hits. In the meantime, it's business as usual around here for me.
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Define 'contrived paths'. What do you believe is actually going to happen?
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Sun is shining in the Heights. We made it, everyone.
Again, I'm no meteorologist, so don't take anything I'm saying as any meaningful prediction. I could just see the media finding the worst case scenario to worry about, and then we see this thing careen off to the west instead of bouncing/turning back towards Houston.
It would feel par for the course for that to happen.
It would feel par for the course for that to happen.
This WILL be a major event, but now it is just a question of how major and how many people it will affect.
It's all relevant to where you live, the path the storm ends of taking in full, and how well the drainage systems work. For Houston, this appears to strictly be a flooding concern. Nobody can ever predict how bad things are going to flood, but rest assured they are going to in many parts.
It's all relevant to where you live, the path the storm ends of taking in full, and how well the drainage systems work. For Houston, this appears to strictly be a flooding concern. Nobody can ever predict how bad things are going to flood, but rest assured they are going to in many parts.
it's not so much finding the worst case scenario as it is, out of all the models being run, there is only one that still shows it going west. so yes, it could happen, but mathematically is HIGHLY unlikelyWaffledynamics said:
Again, I'm no meteorologist, so don't take anything I'm saying as any meaningful prediction. I could just see the media finding the worst case scenario to worry about, and then we see this thing careen off to the west instead of bouncing/turning back towards Houston.
It would feel par for the course for that to happen.
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haha i think the karate kids/2A HS legends win this one, but it's closeBMX Bandit said:not sure who I have been more impressed by the last two days:Wycliffe_03 said:
Hurricane and flood internet badasses are probably worse than the bipolar women running around Kroger like it's the apocalypse.
Sure, there have been misses in the past because weather is tough to predict, and the news media likes to hype sh**. But Houston has been hit enough times for us to know what could happen if any of these grim predictions are even half correct. Would rather err on the side of caution. Will be happy as hell though if Clay711 ends up being right though and this was all just drummed up panic for nothing.
Any heavy rain/potential flooding forecast puts me on alert these days given how much Houston has been built up in the past decade. Think about neighborhoods like the Heights and surrounding areas and how much construction has gone in. No way there are enough retention ponds to offset it all. Hell, my backyard in OF accumulates water noticeably faster than it did several years ago just due to all of the bigger homes going in. Recently heard that pop has grown by roughly 1MM just since Ike (seems hard to believe though).
a) the hurricane and flood internet badasses; or
b) the karate kids on the politics board cheerleader thread
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Just got TP, was down to about 1 ft. F yeah let's do this
I guess I really haven't been following this to know if this has already been covered...
But if the eye does hit around corpus area (or current projected path), what does that mean as far as wind affects for Houston?
Yes rain is the biggest issue but power getting knocked out just complicates things X100
But if the eye does hit around corpus area (or current projected path), what does that mean as far as wind affects for Houston?
Yes rain is the biggest issue but power getting knocked out just complicates things X100
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Forecasters within the media aren't just arbitrarily picking a track that bears the worst news. Some are using a track that gives a mean trajectory of a handful of models, and some are pretty much copying the data given from either the GFS or the European model.
do i expect to live? yes.
do i expect to have water in my house and no power for four days? yes.
do i expect to have water in my house and no power for four days? yes.
Most people hyping up the storm aren't forecasters.Dirty Mike and the Boys said:
Forecasters within the media aren't just arbitrarily picking a track that bears the worst news. Some are using a track that gives a mean trajectory of a handful of models, and some are pretty much copying the data given from either the GFS or the European model.
We'll see. I just have a very "meh" feeling about this thing like another poster had said earlier. I'm by no means claiming to be an expert.
here are areal predictions of wind speed probabilities over the next 120 hours:
hurricane winds:
50+ knot winds:
tropical storm winds:
hurricane winds:
50+ knot winds:
tropical storm winds:
So probably in that 30-80 mph range give or take ?
On winds fcst I get shows about 40 sustained with 55 gusts on first landfall
On second landfall Wednesday 50 sustained and 60 gusts
"Facts no longer exist. Everything is a "point of view" now."
Daniel Suarez's 2011 "Freedom"
On second landfall Wednesday 50 sustained and 60 gusts
"Facts no longer exist. Everything is a "point of view" now."
Daniel Suarez's 2011 "Freedom"
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I'm not sure what 'hyping up the storm' means if you believe the forecast is actually legitimate. Are people really supposed to treat an event that could dump 2 feet of rain into the city as business as usual? Its not an impending apocalypse, but (logically) one would think it warrants significant coverage.
Waffledynamics said:
Again, I'm no meteorologist, so don't take anything I'm saying as any meaningful prediction. I could just see the media finding the worst case scenario to worry about, and then we see this thing careen off to the west instead of bouncing/turning back towards Houston.
It would feel par for the course for that to happen.
It's a big ass storm. It takes up a large part of the Gulf.
Even it goes in at Rockport and sits there and moves no closer to Houston, rain will still reach here.
some people will drown in this
the cleanup will be an unbelievable asswhip
the cleanup will be an unbelievable asswhip
Most worried about daughter and her family. Just got back in their house few months ago after being flooded out in May 2016.
"Facts no longer exist. Everything is a "point of view" now."
Daniel Suarez's 2011 "Freedom"
"Facts no longer exist. Everything is a "point of view" now."
Daniel Suarez's 2011 "Freedom"
Okay, well if it does, then it does. I'm prepared. I'm also not going to be surprised if it turns out to be a huge dud in Houston. We got hit by a band this morning, and hasn't even rained in a few hours where I am.Ag_07 said:Waffledynamics said:
Again, I'm no meteorologist, so don't take anything I'm saying as any meaningful prediction. I could just see the media finding the worst case scenario to worry about, and then we see this thing careen off to the west instead of bouncing/turning back towards Houston.
It would feel par for the course for that to happen.
It's a big ass storm. It takes up a large part of the Gulf.
Even it goes in at Rockport and sits there and moves no closer to Houston, rain will still reach here.
At this point, I'm not really panicking, though I am a bit annoyed that they get everyone's nerves up on high alert for nothing. I'm going to expect this to be a dud for most of the city.
Spend less time worrying about other people's reactions and your problems are solved.
Waffledynamics said:
Okay, well if it does, then it does. I'm prepared. I'm also not going to be surprised if it turns out to be a huge dud in Houston. We got hit by a band this morning, and hasn't even rained in a few hours where I am.
At this point, I'm not really panicking, though I am a bit annoyed that they get everyone's nerves up on high alert for nothing. I'm going to expect this to be a dud for most of the city.
That is exactly what was forecast to happen this morning.
The best scenario for Houston is that this is a dud. We all hope it is, but you're a freaking dumbass if you don't at least pay attention and be prepared for a least some inconveniences.
Signing a letter "love," is such a weird move.
Love,
The Catfish
Love,
The Catfish
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Also, these harsh predictions are coming from independent meteorologists too. Pretty much across the board.Dirty Mike and the Boys said:
I'm not sure what 'hyping up the storm' means if you believe the forecast is actually legitimate. Are people really supposed to treat an event that could dump 2 feet of rain into the city as business as usual? Its not an impending apocalypse, but (logically) one would think it warrants significant coverage.
There's no real reason to watch the local weather for stuff like this aside from T&A, or for the men if you're gay.
The first bands are nothing. Tonight and tomorrow should bring the rain hammer (according to the mets).
Eric Berger coming up on the Matt Thomas show on 790 at 12:20.
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Okay, well if it does, then it does. I'm prepared. I'm also not going to be surprised if it turns out to be a huge dud in Houston. We got hit by a band this morning, and hasn't even rained in a few hours where I am.
Same here down in pearland.
CORAD can be a good way to look at real time radar versus some other formats:
http://www.corad.org/texas_radar_map.php
http://www.corad.org/texas_radar_map.php