We're almost to the end of April, and discussions about RPI, national seeds, and even the SEC title are heating up for the Ags!

I've always loved the content bobinator and ColleyvilleAg06 bring to the Basketball Board as the stretch run towards March Madness takes place, and I wanted to try to bring something similar to the great folks over here on the Baseball Board.

I'm a huge nerd over this stuff, and try to build a mock bracket every week or so as a hobby. Would love your feedback because, after all, this is a discussion board! If the discussion ends up just being me talking to myself, so be it

***LAST UPDATED: 5/11***

SUMMARY: Despite losing the weekend series for the second consecutive week, A&M controls its own destiny when it comes to the national seed race. In fact, I even moved A&M up a spot to the number 7 national seed this week.

For a team to lose their spot, there has to be someone that rises up to take it. I just don't think that has happened yet. Kansas (swept by West Virginia at home) and Coastal Carolina (lost 2/3 to a bad Old Dominion team) were the big losers this week, opening the door for A&M to stay in top 8 position. A&M and Florida State were close for me, but ultimately I kept the Ags ahead due to the fact that they have two series wins better than the 'Noles' best one.

The goal is very simple for the Ags: win 2/3 vs Mississippi State this weekend and you earn the right to host postseason baseball at Olsen through the Super Regional round.

Texas A&M Snapshot:
37-12 (16-9, 2nd in SEC)
RPI: 10 (-2 from last week)
ELO: 8 (+1)
KPI: 9 (-1)
DSR: 7 (-2)
PEAR NET: 7 (-3)
SoS: 26 (-2)

Q1: 12-11
Q2: 2-0
Q3: 6-1
Q4: 17-0


Predicting the Field of 64:
Top 8 Seeds (Right to host until Omaha) - Conference auto-bids are noted
1. UCLA (Big Ten)
2. Georgia Tech (ACC)
3. Georgia (SEC)
4. North Carolina
5. Texas
6. Auburn
7. Texas A&M
8. Florida State

UCLA, Georgia Tech, Georgia, and North Carolina are locks to be a top 8 seed. For all intents and purposes, Texas is as well, but I'll hold out hope Mizzou can cause some chaos there. Auburn and A&M would lock in their top 8 position with series wins this week, and I believe Florida State would as well (but national experts seem to disagree with me on that).

Remaining Regional Hosts (9-16)
9. Alabama
10. Mississippi State
11. Southern Miss
12. Florida
13. Kansas (Big 12)
14. Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt)
15. Ole Miss
16. Oregon State

Alabama has taken care of business, winning six straight SEC games after dropping three straight series to end April. The RPI is very strong, and 2/3 against Ole Miss would likely be enough to sneak into the top 8. I'm very interested to see what the committee does with Southern Miss, Coastal, and Kansas. If the latter two slip up again this weekend and do not bring home their regular season conference championships, they will likely be traveling for the regional round. I think both eliminated themselves from national seed contention last weekend. Keep an eye on West Virginia as a wild card to nab a top 8 seed if they win the Big 12.

One Bid League Auto-bids
17. America East (Binghamton)
18. ASUN (North Florida)
19. A10 (Saint Joesph's)
20. Big East (Saint John's)
21. Coastal (Campbell)
22. Horizon (Wright State)
23. Ivy (Yale)
24. MAAC (Niagara)
25. Missouri Valley (Indiana State)
26. Mountain West (San Diego State)
27. NEC (Fairleigh Dickinson)
28. Ohio Valley (SIUE) *moved from other auto-bids last week
29. Patriot (Bucknell)
30. Southland (SE Louisiana)
31. SWAC (Bethune Cookman)
32. Summit (Oral Roberts)

Other Auto-bids (Champ is currently in top 60 of RPI, meaning at-large is possible)
33. American (UTSA, 50 RPI) *Bubble at large
34. Big South (High Point, 40) *Bubble at large
35. Big West (UC Santa Barbara, 28) *Would definitely be in as at large today
36. CUSA (Jacksonville State, 32) *Would definitely be in as at large today
37. MAC (Miami (OH), 41) *Bubble at large
38. SoCon (Western Carolina, 53)
39. West Coast (Gonzaga, 46) *Bubble at large
40. WAC (Tarleton State, 61)

That leaves 24 additional at-large spots up for grabs!

2 Seeds (Grouped in pods of four to assign to hosts on a general s-curve)
41. Nebraska
42. USC
43. Arkansas
44. West Virginia

45. Oregon
46. Cincinnati
47. Oklahoma
48. Wake Forest

(These four most likely to be sent to A&M on the s-curve)
49. Virginia
50. Oklahoma State
51. Tennessee
52. Boston College

53. UCF
54. Miami (FL)
(UC Santa Barbara)
(Jacksonville State)

At large 3 Seeds (The Bubble)
55. Arizona State
56. Kentucky
57. Michigan
58. Missouri State
59. Liberty
60. NC State
61. TCU
62. Purdue
63. Virginia Tech
64. Texas State

***Bubble Bursts Here***

65. Louisiana
66. East Carolina
67. Kent State
68. Pittsburgh
69. Mercer
70. South Alabama
71. Louisiana Tech
72. Rice
73. Clemson
74. LSU
75. UAB

For the visual learners:

Seed List:


Potential A&M Path to Omaha (If the season ended today)

Thank you for creating this thread!

Good info, Nice presentation. No subscription fee!

Good analysis. Thanks

That was the short way to explain the new process for the 2-seeds this year. Longer version:

The committee will seed teams 1-32 in order. Teams 17-32 (the 2-seeds in each regional) will be grouped into pods of four (17-20, 21-24, 25-28, 29-32). Those pods of four will be paired up with corresponding pods of four for the one-seeds (I.e. 29-32 with 1-4, 25-28 with 5-8, etc.) on an s-curve. It helps balance out the regionals more so than when they were purely geography based, but they have to leave themselves a little wiggle room to avoid multiple teams from the same conference being in a regional, and (probably) to cherry-pick some interesting matchups.

Clear as mud?

I really appreciate your information and really only have one observation. With your list of national seeds including 7 SEC teams (4 in 1-8 and 3 more in 9-16), you do not have a single SEC vs SEC matchup at a super regional, potentially allowing all 7 teams to make it to Omaha. I don't see any way that the committee will allow that. They have the opportunity to eliminate 3 SEC teams just by slating 1-16, which gives other conferences a better chance to keep some representation at Omaha.

I certainly don't question your lists based on results, talent, performance, etc, I just question the committee leaving the possibility of so many SEC teams making it to the CWS (I refuse to use MCWS) and cutting out regional interest from other fans in other areas. Unfortunate, but history shows that we won't see SEC vs SEC supers minimized.

And if you really want to nerd out on this with folks that have been doing so for a long time and have really good insight into the behind the scenes stuff, I highly recommend the NerdCast. It's among my absolute favorite content during this part of the season.

Week 12 Nerdcast: 2026 Field of 64 Projection + Bubble Breakdown https://t.co/TGAW5EPNdp

— D1Baseball (@d1baseball) April 28, 2026

D1 Nerd Cast is the best.

I try to beat their release each week so I can't cheat...

**Spoiler alert if you want to watch the D1 Video**

This week we ended up with the exact same top 8 and 9-16 (just in a slightly different order), 14/16 on the 2/3-seed line, and just two different at-large decisions. I had Michigan and Kentucky in, the D1 guys swapped them for Texas State and Vanderbilt (my first two teams out).

I love what those guys do!

I've been addicted to RPI and projections for as long as they've existed so live seeing this thread! Thank you OP!

None taken at all. They are what inspired me to try it for myself a few years back. Like I said, love what they do and how they do it!

Three more conference wins, in theory. But I don't want to find out what it looks like if we get there by going 1-2 in our last three series.

Ags are up to 4 in the RPI, 3 in the DSR, and held steady at 6 in the KPI after a hard-fought win over Tarleton.

Consider me someone who would like to see the Texans somewhere other than Olsen for a regional, that team will give whatever host draws them all kinds of fits.

Also, as others have mentioned, next week's game against Prairie View is the ultimate lose-lose situation. Currently a 10% chance of rain for next Tuesday, maybe we could leave the sprinklers on Monday night?

They probably don't have the arms to win a regional, but they could either beat you or force you to use high leverage arms on Friday. Either way, they throw off the plan and make it a lot more difficult than a typical four.