NCAA Regional Preview: A&M opens 2024 postseason vs. Grambling on Friday
What: 2024 Bryan-College Station Regional
Who: #1 Texas A&M, #2 Louisiana, #3 Texas, #4 Grambling State
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:
Friday: 12 p.m. CT (Texas A&M vs. Grambling State) & 5 p.m. CT (Louisiana vs. Texas)
Saturday: 2 p.m. & 8 p.m.
Sunday: 2 p.m. & 7 p.m.
Monday (if necessary): TBA
The Fightin’ Texas Aggies begin the 2024 Road to Omaha looking for the school’s fourth trip to college baseball’s ultimate destination since 2011 and the second trip to Omaha in Jim Schlossnagle’s three seasons in Aggieland. Texas A&M enters NCAA postseason play as the No. 3 national seed, the highest in school history since the NCAA started seeding the top 16 teams in 1999. That road to the Men’s College World Series goes through Bryan-College Station in week one of regional play, where the Aggies will battle No. 4 seed Grambling State, followed by No. 2 seed Louisiana facing the Texas Longhorns in the nightcap on Friday.
The two losers will play on Saturday at 2 p.m. CT, while the two winners from Friday will face off in the critical semifinal game at 8 p.m. CT. The winner moves to the championship game Sunday at 7 p.m., while the remaining one-loss teams play an elimination game Sunday at 2 p.m. If the undefeated squad loses in the championship game Sunday night, then both teams will battle Monday (TBA) for the right to advance to the super regional round.
Here’s a breakdown of all four teams in this weekend’s regional and the chances of each team to advance to the super-regional round next weekend:
#1 Seed: Texas A&M Aggies
RPI Rank: 2
Season record vs. RPI teams:
- Quadrant 1: 17-13
- Quadrant 2: 5-0
- Quadrant 3: 4-0
- Quadrant 4: 18-0
Team Strengths
A&M brings the lowest team ERA to this regional and the best pitcher, Ryan Prager. This team brings in the most explosive offense and the best team defense, with a .978 fielding percentage. The Aggies boast two of the top-10 power hitters in college baseball (Jace LaViolette and Braden Montgomery) and the top freshman power hitter in the country (Gavin Grahovac). A&M is the best team on paper. Amazingly, this team has a perfect 27-0 against non-Quad 1 opponents. That means the Aggies win the games they are supposed to win, and they are supposed to win this regional.
Team Weaknesses
If you can point to one area of weakness, it’s probably pitching depth. Outside of Prager, the starting rotation has been a work-in-progress all season. Jim Schlossnagle has worked around some of those inconsistencies and put the pieces together transparently and effectively. However, there is no margin for error now. A&M pitchers need to be consistent and effective. The concern for this team is falling into the losers’ bracket and relying on a pitching staff that doesn’t go very deep. The other issue is the recent offensive slump. A&M did struggle to score runs consistently late in the season.
Keys to winning the regional
If A&M comes out and swings the bat like they did the first two months of the season, this team will be tough to stop. There’s simply too much firepower when Grahovac, LaViolette and Montgomery are hitting on all cylinders. A&M had a week off to rest, regroup and work out any kinks in the offense. They need to get back to form. If not, the path to winning this regional is much more challenging.
On the mound, A&M caught a break with a favorable Grambling State match-up and will throw Tanner Jones against the arm-weary Mason Martinez. That will save Prager for (hopefully) the critical winners’ bracket game Saturday evening. Thus, the Aggies should have the advantage on the mound for that contest as long as Prager delivers as expected. Obviously, if that happens and A&M advances to the championship game on Sunday having only played two games, the Aggies will avoid going deep in the bullpen and will be in a perfect position to win the regional, as expected. As we know, baseball rarely goes as expected. There may be a name nobody talks about that wins this regional for the Aggies in a clutch spot. That’s why you play the games.
Chance to win Bryan-College Station Regional: 75 percent
No. 2 Seed: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
RPI Rank: 38
Season record vs. RPI teams:
- Quadrant 1: 6-6
- Quadrant 2: 6-4
- Quadrant 3: 12-4
- Quadrant 4: 16-4
Team Strengths
Louisiana’s strength is a deep starting rotation on the bump with a few explosive bats at the plate. Carson Fluno (4-0, 2.94 ERA), Andrew Herrmann (5-3, 2.90) and Chase Morgan (4-3, 3.29) have been rock solid all season for Matt Deggs and the Ragin’ Cajuns. They will have the luxury of running out a quality starter for the first three days of the tournament, while some other teams will be piecing together innings from the bullpen throughout the weekend. In addition, Louisiana also has a big weapon in the bullpen with LP Langevin with a 3.75 ERA and 100 strikeouts.
Team Weaknesses
I’m not sure Louisiana has a big weakness, but if I’m searching for cracks in the wall, I’d point to the 245 walks the Ragin’ Cajun pitching staff allowed in 2024. That’s 67 more base-on-balls than what A&M allowed (178). The offensive numbers are solid but not explosive, especially once you get past their big run producer — Kyle DeBarge and his 21 homers and 67 RBIs. The rest of the team has hit just 54 home runs. As long as opposing pitchers can successfully navigate around Louisiana’s top 2-3 hitters, the rest of the lineup is manageable.
Keys to winning the regional
The path to winning this regional for Louisiana is straightforward. The Ragin’ Cajuns need quality outings from its starting rotation, something they’ve gotten most of the season and something many fans should expect. They will also need a big weekend from their big gun in DeBarge. If that happens, Louisiana has a legitimate shot at winning this regional.
Chance to win Bryan-College Station Regional: 15 percent
#3 Seed: Texas Longhorns
RPI Rank: 47
Season record vs. RPI teams:
- Quadrant 1: 12-9
- Quadrant 2: 5-4
- Quadrant 3: 5-1
- Quadrant 4: 13-8
Team Strengths
Historically, Texas has relied on elite pitching to reach the highest levels of collegiate baseball over the past 40-plus years, going back to Roger Clemens. Ironically, the 2024 Longhorns did not take on a similar path. In fact, quite the opposite as this team struggled with pitching throughout the season but was very productive at the plate. Aggie fans boast of the three-headed hitting monster of Grahovac, LaViolette and Montgomery, but Texas has a pretty salty trio as well with Jared Thomas (.355, 15 HR, 45 RBI), Max Belyeu (.349, 18 HR, 53 RBI) and Jalin Flores (.345, 17 HR, 52 RBI). The numbers may not be quite as gaudy as A&M’s big three, but it’s close enough to know the Longhorns are very dangerous at the plate. Overall, Texas will send seven hitters to the plate with eight or more home runs. It’s June, so the ball will be flying out of Blue Bell Park, and that plays into the strength of the Longhorns.
Team Weaknesses
The clear weakness all year for Texas has been an underperforming pitching staff, especially in terms of depth in the starting rotation. There is no elite starter. Max Grubbs has the best stat line with a 5-4 record and a 3.41 ERA and has surrendered a whopping 73 hits in 68 innings of work. That’s their best of the rotation. The pitching depth is a concern as well and can be seen in their incredibly poor 13-8 record against Quad 4 teams. Had Texas managed to merely have an average record against Quad 4 mid-week opponents, they might be in Austin hosting a regional right now. When you take out the Quad 4 numbers, this team, on paper, looks more like a high 2-seed or even a low 1-seed. Instead, they got tagged with a 3-seed.
Keys to winning the regional
That last bit of information should be of concern to both Louisiana and A&M. If Texas can get a couple of solid starts (not elite) from its starting rotation, the Longhorns have the offensive firepower to match with anybody in the field. If you look at every aspect of this Texas team other than starting pitching, this is a team that can beat anybody in this NCAA field and advance to the Men’s College World Series. Texas even has a couple of capable relievers on the back-end in Gage Boehm and Andre Duplantier II, so they just need starters like Grubbs and Ace Whitehead (4-1, 4.33 ERA) to give the team a solid four to five innings to be competitive this weekend. If the Longhorns can manage that, they can make plenty of noise in this regional.
Chance to win Bryan-College Station Regional: 10 percent
#4 Seed: Grambling State Tigers
RPI Rank: 235
Season record vs. RPI teams:
- Quadrant 1: 0-3
- Quadrant 2: 0-4
- Quadrant 3: 2-4
- Quadrant 4: 24-14
Team Strengths
As the automatic qualifier from the SWAC Conference, the Tigers are huge underdogs. Frankly, they are just happy to be dancing in the NCAA postseason. In fact, Grambling State rode the arm of ace Mason Martinez to the SWAC Tournament title last weekend, and they rode it hard. Last week alone, Martinez started two games and came in for an extended relief appearance in the championship game on Sunday. In all, he threw a whopping 263 pitches since Wednesday. Now, there's a reason why he is pitching so much. He's the bellcow of the staff. Martinez is 12-2 with a 4.33 ERA with five complete games. That's a very solid stat line for a college pitcher, regardless of competition level. However, the big question with Martinez on Friday is the status of his arm and his stamina. He has been a workhorse for the Tigers all season, and he's used to emptying his tank on a weekly basis. Can he rebound from 263 pitches over five days and do it again on five days rest?
Team Weaknesses
After Martinez, the Tigers are extremely weak on the hill. It’s hard to find a collegiate baseball staff with a team ERA of 8.30. Even if Grambling State gets a heroic effort out of Martinez on Friday against A&M, who closes that game? And the bigger question is, who takes the ball for the Tigers the rest of the weekend? The other issue with Grambling State is the quality of competition throughout the 2024 season. The Tigers have not won a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game all season. They are taking a huge step up in competition this weekend.
Keys to winning the regional
It’s hard to see a realistic path for Grambling State to win this regional. First, they will need a superhuman effort by Martinez to win Friday’s game against top-seed A&M. Then, they must rely on some pitchers with bloated ERAs and high walk totals to carry the team through an entire regional. The Tigers also have the lowest home run total of the four teams, so it’s hard to see this SWAC team out-slugging the three higher-rated squads in Bryan-College Station this weekend to overcome the lack of pitching. Many uncharacteristic things must happen for the Tigers to win this regional, and that’s highly unlikely.
Chance to win Bryan-College Station Regional: <1 percent
