Series Preview: Top-ranked A&M meets LSU at 'The Box' this weekend

Who: Louisiana State Tigers (29-17, 7-14 SEC)
Where: Alex Box Stadium – Baton Rouge, Louisiana
When:

Friday: 7 p.m. CT (ESPN2)
Saturday: 6:30 p.m. CT (ESPN2)
Sunday: 1 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)

Pitching Matchups

Friday: LHP Ryan Prager (8-0, 2.59 ERA) vs. LHP Gage Jump (4-1, 3.62 ERA)
Saturday: LHP Justin Lamkin (2-1, 4.47 ERA) vs. RHP Luke Holman (6-3, 2.63 ERA)
Sunday: TBA vs. TBA

Scouting Louisiana State

Two months ago, the defending national champions were on the march for a repeat NCAA title sitting at 14-1 and ranked No. 2 in the country. In an amazing fall from grace, the Tigers have dropped like a rock in SEC play sitting in a tie for 11th place at 7-14 and in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament. This is a desperate LSU team, and it’s still a very talented squad. That’s why this weekend series in Baton Rouge is very dangerous for the Aggies. The Tigers are playing for their postseason lives. What better way to get back in contention than to beat the No. 1 Aggies a couple of times?

So what happened here? To be honest, the answer isn’t completely clear. The offensive lineup still boasts one of the best hitters in college baseball. Tommy White is having a good (but not great) junior season hitting .339 with 18 homers and 48 RBI. He’s on pace to equal his 2023 home run total, but his RBI totals are way down. He had a whopping 105 RBI last season and has only reached 45 percent of that total in 2024. His batting average is also down about 30 to 35 points.

© SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network

LSU is 6-6 vs. A&M in its SEC regular-season games played in Baton Rouge since 2015.

Despite the slight declines in production, White is one of three big-time power hitters at the top and middle of the lineup. That trio also includes graduate catcher Hayden Travinski who toiled away on the LSU bench for several years before having a breakout performance and earning a starting job mid-way through the 2023 campaign. He continues to improve with age. He’s already hit 14 homers and drove in 43 RBI in the middle of the order, boasting a solid .628 slugging percentage. First baseman Jared Jones has hit cleanup in recent weeks. He’s left the yard 19 times with 41 RBI, and he leads the team in slugging percentage (.758) and on-base percentage (.442).

Emerging true freshman Ashton Larson has been in the starting lineup for about a month, and he’s been a game-changer at the top of the lineup leading the team in hitting at .372. The addition of Larson to the other big three bats has rejuvenated an offense that had scored just eight runs in the Tennessee series, 12 runs in the Arkansas series and 12 runs in the Florida three-game set earlier in the season during a brutal 1-8 stretch.

On the mound, the Tigers have two formidable starters. Gage Jump will take the ball on Friday coming off a seven-inning, two-hit, shutout performance against Auburn last weekend. The UCLA lefty transfer missed all of last season with injury but has bounced back in 2024 with a 4-1 record and a 3.62 ERA. Saturday starter Luke Holman should be familiar to Aggie fans. He was Alabama’s Friday night starter in 2023 and faced A&M hitting. A&M got the best of him with three home runs and six earned runs in 4.1 innings of action. The Aggies won the game 11-5. At LSU, Holman is having a very nice year with a 6-3 record and a 2.63 ERA. On paper, LSU has its best matchup on the mound in game two on Saturday, going up against Justin Lamkin at 2-1 with a 4.47 ERA.

LSU has been looking long and hard for a Sunday starter. They tried promising freshman Kade Anderson, but he couldn’t get out of the first inning last week against Auburn, surrendering five runs before the quick departure. The College World Series hero from last year, Thatcher Hurd, was expected to be in the starting rotation, but he’s struggled mightily in recent weeks with a bloated 6.27 ERA overall. There are not many good options for head coach Jay Johnson at this point. Middle reliever Griffin Herring is the best bullpen arm with a 2.38 ERA and three saves. He has started one game this season, but if Johnson puts him out on the bump to start game three, there are no proven stoppers in the bullpen. Now, you have the answer as to why LSU has underperformed this season. The team’s ERA in conference play is a healthy 6.23 which is 1.3 runs higher than Texas A&M’s SEC ERA of 4.94.

It should be noted that LSU won its last two series to give the team some life heading into the weekend with the Aggies. However, those series came against the two worst teams in the league, Missouri and Auburn, who have a combined SEC record of 9-33. Thus, that begs the question... Did they play better because they battled poor competition, or have they actually turned a corner and are poised to get back in the hunt for an NCAA bid? We’ll find out this weekend.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

Every Friday night of the series is important, but it’s especially critical in this series for the Aggies. Ryan Prager is undefeated (8-0) and has the statistical edge over his counterpart Gage Jump. However, it’s not a big advantage, and Jump had a masterful shutout performance last weekend. If Jump has a similar outing against the Aggies and outduels Prager on Friday, the Aggies will have their backs against the wall facing one of the best pitchers in the league, Luke Holman on Saturday. Now, A&M had success against the Alabama transfer last season, but that was last year and the 6-foot-5 righty is having a tremendous year in 2024.

It will also be interesting to watch if LSU pitching coach Nate Yeskie has any insights on how to face A&M hitters, spending a couple of years in Aggieland working under Jim Schlossnagle. While both teams did not formally announce Sunday starters, Texas A&M’s head man strongly suggested on TexAgs Radio he’ll likely go with Tanner Jones. It’s believed that Jones’ struggles last week against Georgia occurred because he was tipping his pitches. So Jones and Max Weiner worked a hard, long bullpen session to correct the issue and they wanted to give him an extra day of rest. It’s been a while since the Aggies have delivered three quality starts in one weekend. That has to change before NCAA Regionals. One bad outing can throw any team into the death throes of the loser’s bracket. Teams can survive some inconsistency on the mound in the regular season, but teams that go to Omaha and win it all have a long string of consistent arms and quality starts.

Kelly Cothern, TexAgs

The Aggies’ 15-6 start in SEC play is the best in program history.

At the plate, Braden Montgomery is going through his first mini-cold streak of 2024. You know it won’t last for long and he’ll come out of it just fine, but breaking out at the plate this weekend in a hostile environment would be just what the doctor ordered for the Aggies.

The other big storyline at the plate will be the status of Gavin Grahovac who is battling a leg injury from the Georgia series. Schlossnagle is cautiously optimistic that he’ll be in the lineup, but you never know until he gets to the ballpark on Friday and tests that leg at full speed. Needless to say, A&M’s offense is just plain filthy, with Grahovac, Jace LaViolette and Montgomery at the top of the order. If Grahovac can’t go, his absence will have a noticeable impact on the offense. Then again, that impact would be too bad if Ted Burton continues his power surge from last week that saw him leave the park five times in four games. While the dynamic power of this lineup resides at the top, the secret to this team’s offensive success is production up-and-down the scorecard. Jackson Appel is hitting .349 with eight homers. Hayden Schott is swinging at a nice .335 clip with six homers and 46 RBI, along with Burton’s recent heroics. It should also be noted that Texas A&M’s home run total of 102 trails only the 1999 team’s 128 season homers. There’s still a lot of baseball to play to eclipse the 1999 record that few people felt could be broken given the bat technology advantages in the late 1990s.

What’s at stake this weekend

We’re getting down to the last three weeks of the regular season, so every game has added importance down the stretch. 

The Aggies are at the top of the NCAA RPI mountain and right in the thick of the SEC conference race. The biggest prize right now is securing a top-eight national seed so the team can play at the friendly confines of Olsen Field while sleeping in their own beds throughout the NCAA’s regional and super regional rounds. That’s such a huge advantage for those top eight schools.

I think winning a pair of games in Baton Rouge virtually assures A&M of a top-eight national seed, barring a bizarre set of unforeseen circumstances. Winning the series (or more) will also keep the Aggies in the middle of the conference title race, especially since the two teams in front of A&M, Arkansas and Kentucky, will be squaring off against one another this weekend. Even a 1-2 road weekend is digestible.

Despite LSU’s disappointing season, the Tigers are still a Quad 1 opponent. It’s not the end of the world to lose a Q1 series on the road, but a sweep could make the final two weekends a little tighter than desired. A series sweep by A&M and the Aggies have an excellent chance to lock up the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, matching that same accomplishment by the 1993 team that advanced to the College World Series.