This is as of Monday, so it doesn't include this week's results, including midweek. I calculated it based on various sources (not polls). It is, of course, both highly subjective (the "formula" that is) and subject to change. Due to the subjectivity, I put the teams in quarters rather than slot them into a ranking, thus they may be in any order in that quarter.

Top Quarter:
A&M
Arkansas
Clemson
Tennessee

Second Quarter:
Kentucky (actually had them rated higher than Tenn, but it wasn't by much, so went with last weekend's results)
FSU
UNC
ECU

Third Quarter:
Wake
Georgia
Virginia
Duke

Fourth Quarter:
Indiana State
South Carolina
Coastal Carolina
Vanderbilt

"Fifth" Quarter:
Oregon State
UCSB
DBU
Louisiana

Most, maybe all, of these teams will likely put in a host bid and I think everyone on here except UCSB has hosted at one point or another (DBU??). The Fifth Quarter set is very subjective with one or more schools that could be included, including tech, Bama, and maybe even Nebraska. I had to weigh the data myself.

I'll run this again next week and see where we are.

We are number one!! No need for a fancy formula, Aggies are always number one in my book.

Going to get the list for tomorrow early:

Top 4:
A&M
Tenn
Ark
Kentucky*

5-8:
Clemson*
FSU*
ECU*
UNC*

9-12:
Georgia
Oregon St.
SoCar
Virginia

13-16:
Indiana St.
DBU
Vandy
Oklahoma St.

Just out:
OU
Wake
Alabama
Duke/UCSB

Any chance you could see UC Irvine get one of the top 16 spots, and hosting a regional?

Miss State is starting to make a case for hosting as well. But they will need to finish strong to make that happen.

I hope DBU hosts a regional. Would love to go to some games! Before going down to College Station for a super!

Treycole01 said:

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I hope DBU hosts a regional. Would love to go to some games! Before going down to College Station for a super!

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They probably need to win their league (regular season) in order to host, but if they do, the RPI might be good enough. And, if the do, they could very well be 16 and us 1. It would give the committee some place else to send these Big XII teams that are just going to scrap in.

Emilio Fantastico said:

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Miss State is starting to make a case for hosting as well. But they will need to finish strong to make that happen.

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They've got work to do on the RPI front. Right now they are 12-9 in SEC play, with an RPI of 28. Warren Nolan's RPI prediction has them finishing 17-13 (good enough to be considered), but with a 34 RPI (probably not good enough if they end up in 5th place). They host Bama, travel to Arkansas, then host Missouri. Probably would have to sweep Missouri, beat Bama 2-1, and get 1 win at Fayetteville. If they get to 18-12, I think the committee would overlook the RPI.

rpr52121 said:

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Any chance you could see UC Irvine get one of the top 16 spots, and hosting a regional?

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Possibly. The NCAA is definitely going to want some geographical diversity in their hosting spots. While Irvine and UCSB don't exactly have great parks for hosting, Irvine has hosted before and SB has put in a bid (don't think they've secured one, though). Irvine pretty much needs to win out given their low remaining SOS.

The RPI is a known farce. Unfortunately, as of now, it is one of several "tools" to use. No one has come up with others that everyone can calculate and/or plan for.

Update for 5/6. Numbers are based on games mostly through 5/7 as I didn't get to this the other day.

Top Quarter:

A&M
Kentucky
Ark
Tenn

Second Quarter:

Clemson
Georgia
UNC
FSU

Third Quarter:

ECU
SoCarolina
Virginia
Wake

Fourth Quarter:
Indiana St
Duke
Oregon St.
MissState/Alabama

Next Quarter:
Alabama/MissState
UCSB
OU
DBU

My opinion is that Clemson belongs in the top "quarter" as those 5 teams are head and shoulders above the rest. I'm pretty sure that, absent serious breakdowns, each of them will be a top 8 seed. After that, it gets interesting. The next group is the rest of the second quarter and all of the third quarter. But even then, there's a clear difference between Georgia, FSU and UNC and the rest. Alabama and State are neck and neck.

I still think there will be 2 West Coast hosts. I just don't know who that will be or if the location will have a different 1 seed. If you're only interested in the top 8, I'm pretty certain you can draw a line between the third and fourth quarter and there are 12 teams, 8 of which will be the top 8. But we'll see. Next 2 weeks will be fun.

I'm pretty sure that everyone on this list will submit a bid, as will a number of other teams. Twk or Luke may have some more historical data on that.

Think they're going to have to reach to get two left coast hosts. Oregon State hasn't been good in about a month (7-8 in last 15) so how will they look like come seeding time. UCSB is RPI 16 with a series win at Oregon which is what's boosting their RPI. Their schedule is full of RPI 200+ teams. The next two west coast teams are San Diego and Irvine at 26 and 27. If the Beavers keep falling it's going to be hard to justify that pick and your second west coast host would be in the mid-20's with a lot of Q4 games. Just not much good baseball out west this year. I know how the committee tries to use host sites to grow the sport with fans but at some point you're trying to hard and it's not fair to teams that have played good baseball and earned those spots. I think your non-SEC/ACC hosts will be OU, OSU, ISU and ECU. Maybe one from out west.

last year the SEC and ACC combined for 12 of the 16 hosts. I would expect more of the same in 2024.

interesting that the #15 and #16 hosts in 2023 went to the SEC -- so the committee defaulted to the SEC for the final spots

also figure that the SEC + ACC + Sun Belt = 22 teams in the field as 1, 2, or 3-seeds

so having many regionals in the southeast U.S. makes sense

D1s latest projections...

https://instagr.am/p/C6uA91tuUWm

I couldn't get to this the other day so I waited until the end of the regular season and ran my numbers tonight. Some of where I drew them may not have taken into account all games today but most did and I don't think those that didn't amount to much.

Absent funny business by the NCAA, I think the top 8 seeds are all but locked up. There may be a big question as to the order, but no question (in my mind) as to who they're going to. There's just a huge spread between these teams and the rest, and the break line is right at 8/9.

Here's the 8 teams I've got on top:

A&M
Ark
Tenn
Kentucky
UNC
Georgia
Clemson
Virginia*

*This break is based on MY numbers. Other numbers I've seen have FSU and possibly even Oregon State ahead of UVa and the committee may follow through on that, but I think UVa's numbers are a little better, hence the spread. Consider the possibility that the ACC tournament may come into play with regard to FSU and UVa since they didn't play each other during the regular season, but for now, I'm going with UVa ahead.

Then, 9-11 looks pretty solid with FSU, Wake and Oregon State in any order you choose followed by Oklahoma State, UCSB, NC State, and Indiana State somewhere in the 12-15 range.

For now, instead of a 16th pick and last 4, let's go with 5 teams going for the last spot, which COULD be determined by tournament performance:

OU
ECU
Irvine
MissState
Bama

OU has the upper hand and I think State and Bama have to win the SEC tournament to get a national seed (if possible).

AgEng06 said:

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D1s latest projections...

https://instagr.am/p/C6uA91tuUWm

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boy they love matching up same conferences in supers. Either blindly seed teams based on rsum or there should be a rule you cannot match up conferences unless mathematically impossible to avoid it. I hate the way they try to spread the love instead of trying to create fairness.

Sean98 said:

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If you watch the Nerd-cast you'll see that D1 puts no emphasis into conference v conference matchups. They simply try to get 1-16 in order. The NCAA on the other hand, while they never admit it CLEARLY looks at matchups. And usually not in a helpful way but rather in a "how do we try to avoid people being mad because 6 SEC teams made the CWS" way.

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Unfortunately true

Georgia won't be a top 8 seed. D1 has ECU, but I think OU gets the last top 8 spot.

threeanout said:

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Georgia won't be a top 8 seed. D1 has ECU, but I think OU gets the last top 8 spot.

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Where did you see that? D1 has had them out of the Top 8 and closer to 16 than 8 the last 2 weeks.

Sean98 said:

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threeanout said:

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Georgia won't be a top 8 seed. D1 has ECU, but I think OU gets the last top 8 spot.

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Where did you see that? D1 has had them out of the Top 8 and closer to 16 than 8 the last 2 weeks.

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Elke Miko posted a tweet from them. Had them at #8 unless that is an old tweet. Scroll up about four posts.

threeanout said:

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Sean98 said:

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threeanout said:

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Georgia won't be a top 8 seed. D1 has ECU, but I think OU gets the last top 8 spot.

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Where did you see that? D1 has had them out of the Top 8 and closer to 16 than 8 the last 2 weeks.

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Elke Miko posted a tweet from them. Had them at #8 unless that is an old tweet. Scroll up about four posts.

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NM, misread the comment

I see now. He quoted an older tweet. Went and looked and they had them #12 last week.

Sean98 said:

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I see now. He quoted an older tweet. Went and looked and they had them #12 last week.

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Makes sense. Think they got swept by Tulane a couple of weeks ago.

Sean98 said:

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If you watch the Nerd-cast you'll see that D1 puts no emphasis into conference v conference matchups. They simply try to get 1-16 in order. The NCAA on the other hand, while they never admit it CLEARLY looks at matchups. And usually not in a helpful way but rather in a "how do we try to avoid people being mad because 6 SEC teams made the CWS" way.

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oh I agree with you 100%. My comment wasn't about d1 and more about the ncaa doing that. I see d1 has it like that but it was more about the ncaa trying for optics over fairness