What SEC record do we need to be a Top 8 Seed?

29,255 Views | 140 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by Sean98
ChemEng94
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Just thought I would see what the board thinks we need to get a Top 8 seed.

I think we need to get to 19-11 We currently sit at 3-3, so we need to go 16-8 the rest of the way. My path to getting there:

HOME Get 3 of 3 from Auburn (Check)
ROAD Get 2 of 3 from USC (Check)
HOME Get 2 of 3 from Vandy (Check + 1)
ROAD Get 2 of 3 from Bama (Check)
HOME Get 2 of 3 from UGa (Check)
ROAD Get 1 of 3 from LSU (Check)
HOME Get 2 of 3 from Ole Miss (-1)
HOME Get 2 of 3 from Ark (Check)

Looking at the competition we face, that looks like a pretty tough task though. I think if we go 17-13, that is still pretty impressive considering the competition.

It will be interesting to see how the committee views the SEC when it comes to seeding. You are going to have some really good teams that are gong to be around 0.500 and even the top end teams are probably going to have 8 losses or more.
Tuve
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This might be the best baseball conference ever. 10 teams ranked and 6 in the top 10. I think 17-13 will get us a Top 8 and 15-15 will get us to host a regional.
Wabs
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Multiple factors, especially how other top teams do, but I think 17-13 gets us a national seed.
greg.w.h
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If in doubt…win the rest???
Scooley01
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Let's just win 'em all to be safe.
StinkyPinky
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Tuve said:

This might be the best baseball conference ever. 10 teams ranked and 6 in the top 10. I think 17-13 will get us a Top 8 and 15-15 will get us to host a regional.
I was talking with my LSU buddy last night and we were marveling at the fact SEC has 6 of the top 10. Pretty damn impressive! Talent rich conference.
austinag1997
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The back end of our SEC schedule is tough. Vandy, LSU, and Arky. Will be an intersting watch going forward.
maxag42
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Well I guess there's only one thing left to do……..win the whole ******* thing.
carl spacklers hat
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StinkyPinky said:

Tuve said:

This might be the best baseball conference ever. 10 teams ranked and 6 in the top 10. I think 17-13 will get us a Top 8 and 15-15 will get us to host a regional.
I was talking with my LSU buddy last night and we were marveling at the fact SEC has 6 of the top 10. Pretty damn impressive! Talent rich conference.
12 teams in the Baseball America Top 25. SEC is ridiculous.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
HoustonAg2106
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Look at it this way, the top 3-4 teams in the SEC will get national seed consideration. I think if we finish in first or second place in the West we should be top 8
W
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I think 17-13 might be good enough...with a series win over Arkansas
nereus
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19+ is the generic start of the season answer of what you probably need to get a top 8 seed. It isn't a guarantee (South Carolina wasn't top 8 and had 20 wins back in 2016, Vanderbilt with 20 in 2015, Ole Miss with 19 in 2014), but 19 wins generally gets SEC teams a top 8 seed and that has been especially true more recently.

18 has gotten SEC teams a top 8 seed before (Georgia, Ole Miss, Arkansas all in 2018), but it usually doesn't.

LSU got one in 2014 going 17-11-1 and then winning the SEC tournament. That is the only time 17 has happened since we joined the conference.


SEC is really strong this year (and so far we have done good in non-conferences), so 18 likely gets it done for us this year I think. I'm not sure about 17 yet as most likely I think we end up with too many SEC teams ahead of us in the SEC standings if we only get 17 (but it is possible depending on how everything shakes out). Too early for me to think 17 will be enough though.
themissinglink
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I think it has as more to do with series W-L then actual record. If we go 6-2 in our remaining series, I think we're definitely a national seed. 5-3 could get us in depending on who it is against and where we finish in the SEC standings.
RED AG 98
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Great post HoustonAg and nereus. Someone may pull away in the standings but right now it sure feels like this is the deepest top 8-10 in the SEC in quite some time.

Right now I would guess 18 wins would be a pretty solid top 8 seed, but of course it's super early and it will get sorted out but there are some really dangerous teams sitting at or below .500.

One thing that might help to align the stars is that right now it sure doesn't look like there are many teams in our region that are even in the conversation, whereas in the past there have been years with 2/3/4 deserving seeds in Texas alone. Lots of play to be played. Just keep stacking home series and take a couple on the and I love our chances.
aginlakeway
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Auburn will be tough to sweep.

Yes, they were swept at Vandy, but they just lost two 1-run games to Arkansas.
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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just win series after series and don't get swept. in big boy baseball you cannot afford to get swept and you can't afford to lose a series at home.
HoustonAg2106
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aginlakeway said:

Auburn will be tough to sweep.

Yes, they were swept at Vandy, but they just lost two 1-run games to Arkansas.


I never predict a sweep in the SEC, just win 7-8 series and don't get swept in the ones you lose.
you moran
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Everyone we play in the SEC this year will be tough to sweep.

As good as the SEC has been in the past, this may be the deepest it's ever been 1 through the team just ahead of Mizzou. Might be wrong but that's the way it looks to me.
OKCAGS
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Deepest I have ever seen the SEC ….. 18 or 19 wins would be the educated answer . But …. If we handle all the midweek games then I could see a 17-13 SEC record still earning a top 8 this year.
tjack16
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Assuming we take care of business in our midweeks like we have been…

17-13 for National seed (plus a win in Hoover)

15-15 gets us a regional host (plus a win in Hoover)

We have the benefit of playing other national seeds so winning a series or two over them would be huge.
W
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quick look at last season:

Florida.......20-10
Arkansas...20-10
Vanderbilt....19-11
LSU...19-10

were top 8 seeds

so maybe 17-13 won't be enough

then the SEC had 4 additional regional hosts:

Kentucky....16-14
Auburn....17-13
Alabama....16-14
South Carolina...16-13
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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OKCAGS said:

Deepest I have ever seen the SEC ….. 18 or 19 wins would be the educated answer . But …. If we handle all the midweek games then I could see a 17-13 SEC record still earning a top 8 this year.


i would agree there are 12 sec teams ranked in the top 25 in one poll. the ten teams we play on our sec schedule everyone of them is currently ranked excluding auburn who was ranked just last week. i think 13 of the 14 sec teams make regionals this year which i believe would break the previous sec record of teams sent to the baseball regionals.
RED AG 98
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I think HoustonAg nailed it though: seems like a reasonably safe assumption that at a minimum the top 3-4 teams in the SEC will be in the conversation, regardless of record. Any team with 19 should be feeling pretty good. 20+ is damn near a lock.
RED AG 98
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4 top 8 seeds
8 total hosts
13 of 14 teams make the field

Watch the world burn.
cr06gis
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Just 2 years ago, a SEC team finished 14-16 in conference, got bounced after the first round in Hoover, was a 3 seed in the Miami regional....then won a CWS title. Always makes me chuckle.

What an absolute gauntlet SEC baseball is
snowdog90
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ChemEng94 said:

Just thought I would see what the board thinks we need to get a Top 8 seed.

I think we need to get to 19-11 We currently sit at 3-3, so we need to go 16-8 the rest of the way. My path to getting there:

HOME Get 3 of 3 from Auburn
ROAD Get 2 of 3 from USC
HOME Get 2 of 3 from Vandy
ROAD Get 2 of 3 from Bama
HOME Get 2 of 3 from UGa
ROAD Get 1 of 3 from LSU
HOME Get 2 of 3 from Ole Miss
HOME Get 2 of 3 from Ark

Looking at the competition we face, that looks like a pretty tough task though. I think if we go 17-13, that is still pretty impressive considering the competition.

It will be interesting to see how the committee views the SEC when it comes to seeding. You are going to have some really good teams that are gong to be around 0.500 and even the top end teams are probably going to have 8 losses or more.


I didn't realize we don't play Missouri. That sucks.
threeanout
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With the exception of Oregon St., it looks as if every national seed will come from the SEC or ACC.
94chem
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cr06gis said:

Just 2 years ago, a SEC team finished 14-16 in conference, got bounced after the first round in Hoover, was a 3 seed in the Miami regional....then won a CWS title. Always makes me chuckle.

What an absolute gauntlet SEC baseball is


And became the 2nd national champ in a row from the SEC to not make the conference tournament the next season.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
91AggieLawyer
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This is what I posted a couple of weeks ago after looking at recent seed history:

Quote:

If we finish with 19*+ wins and a top 4* finish in the SEC regular season, we WILL get a top 8 seed. It has happened every year to every such team since they went to 16 seeds in 2018.

*In 2018, UGa, Ole Miss, and Ark each had 18-12 records and got a top 8 seed. In 2022, Ark was top 4 (SEC finish) with 18 wins but didn't get a national seed at all. So 19 wins is the sure-thing line; 18 is possible, depending on the rest of the conference as Florida only won 20 (2018), and everyone else but Bama won 12 or more. Very even SEC that year. UFl, Ark and State were in the CWS semis that year.

This season has the feel that there will be a clump of teams at the top rather than one at, say, 22+. Thus, 18 MAY do it. In 2018, the SEC and ACC had a quarter of the total NCAA field and got half of the national seeds. This year it may be more than that.

That was a weird year when Washington went cross country to win a regional, then won at Fullerton to get to Omaha, then lost 2. Ole Miss lost a regional at home (no shock there). Vandy and State were upset winners of their regionals and faced off in Nashville, where State advanced. So what happened in Omaha didn't really make follow the pattern of the season (if it ever does).
OKCAGS
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Agreed . There could be a team that does not make it to Hoover ….. yet still gets in NCAA Tourney.
OKCAGS
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Ole Miss probably didn't even deserve to make NCAA's ( last at large team in ), but they had talent . Never put it together during the season but got hot at the right time and all their talent showed up in Omaha .
threeanout
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Our RPI dropped two slots with last night's win to # 9. HCU was ranked # 258 headed into the game. The non-conference schedule gets a little tougher from here on out starting next week with a road game at Texas St., which currently will qualify as a Quad 1 game. Our weakest RPI opponent left on the schedule is Rice at # 161.
jkag89
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OKCAGS said:

Agreed . There could be a team that does not make it to Hoover ….. yet still gets in NCAA Tourney.
While not impossible, highly unlikely. There is basically an unwritten rule that to earn a spot in NCAAs a team needs to make its own conference tournament. This is why, along with the expansion from 48 to 64 teams in the NCAAs, most league tourneys have become unwieldy in that conferences want to limit the number of reasons to leave out a team. In 2011 LSU had a overall good record and solid RPI but failed to get an invite because they did not make to Hoover. This is why the SEC tournament is the way it is and will expand to all teams in a single elimination format when t.u. and OU join the league.
twk
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jkag89 said:

OKCAGS said:

Agreed . There could be a team that does not make it to Hoover ….. yet still gets in NCAA Tourney.
While not impossible, highly unlikely. There is basically an unwritten rule that to earn a spot in NCAAs a team needs to make its own conference tournament. This is why, along with the expansion from 48 to 64 teams in the NCAAs, most league tourneys have become unwieldy in that conferences want to limit the number of reasons to leave out a team. In 2011 LSU had a overall good record and solid RPI but failed to get an invite because they did not make to Hoover. This is why the SEC tournament is the way it is and will expand to all teams in a single elimination format when t.u. and OU join the league.
This. You can also add the 1990 Aggies to this, as they were ranked 25 at the end of season (if I recall correctly), but missed out on the SWC tournament (only four teams) in part because Rice had a home game against t.u. rained out (Rice likely would have lost). Of course, it was only a 48 team field back then, but it's still unlikely that a team that doesn't make Hoover will get an at large bid.
LB12Diamond
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Top 3 in SEC will guarantee a national seed. Heck, maybe even 4-5 this year.
 
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