Series Preview: Texas A&M vs. Fordham
Who: Fordham University (35-19, 16-8 Atlantic-10)
Where: Olsen Field @ Blue Bell Park – College Station, TX
When:
Friday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Saturday 2:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Sunday 12:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Pitching matchups
Friday: John Doxakis (LHP, 8-5, 2.70) vs. Matt Mikulski (LHP, 4-5, 5.18)
Saturday: Asa Lacy (LHP, 3-1, 2.75) vs. Anthony DiMeglio (RHP, 8-3, 3.40)
Sunday: Jonathan Childress (LHP, 0-0, 0.00) vs. Alvin Melendez (RHP, 2-1, 3.50)
Scouting Fordham
Fordham is a solid baseball program with a good reputation under head coach Kevin Leighton. The 2018 team won 35 games and finished in second place participating in the Atlantic-10 Conference. Expectations are higher in 2019, with eight of the top nine hitters returning from last season. The Rams’ best player is senior catcher Justin Bardwell who was recently selected as a 3rd team preseason All-American by Collegiate Baseball. He finished 2018 near the top of many offensive categories including hits (57), doubles (20), and RBI (36). He is also one of six NCAA catchers on the Johnny Bench Award Watch List. He threw out nearly 35% of attempted steals in 2018.
Overall, the Rams are most dangerous on the basepaths, leading the NCAA in stolen bases with a whopping 169 thefts. In comparison, the Aggies stole just 40 bases in 2018. Players accounting for 151 of those stolen bases return in 2019 led by Jake MacKenzie (34), Billy Godrick (27), and Alvin Melendez (26), so first year catcher Mikey Hoehner will jump into the fire in his first D-1 action for the Aggies this weekend.
While the Rams have speed, the power numbers and other offensive production is pretty average against mostly non-P5 competition. The Rams managed just 22 home runs and scoring 299 runs in 2018, compared to 50 homers and 368 runs generated by the Texas A&M offense last season. The slugging percentage of .384 (A&M .423) was also an underwhelming offensive barometer in 2018.
Fordham also set school records on the pitching mound with a program low 3.36 ERA (A&M 3.38) and 536 (A&M 523) strikeouts that led the Atlantic-10 and was one of the top punch-out numbers in the nation. Unlike on the offensive side of the ledger, the Rams lost two of its most productive weekend starters in Reiss Knehr (2.40 ERA, 93 K’s) and Ben Greenberg (2.40 ERA, 6-2).
The Rams will replace those combined 30 starts with sophomore lefty Matt Mikulski (4-5, 5.18 ERA). Two-way starter Alvin Melendez will fill the other vacated starting spot, who in limited action (18 IP) recorded five saves out of the bullpen in 2018. Accomplished closer Kyle Martin returns (1.62 ERA, 10 saves) and gives the Rams a legitimate late inning stopper if they grab the lead coming down the stretch.
However, it must be mentioned again, these statistics and accomplishments last season came exclusively against non-P5 conference competition. It will be interesting to see how that production holds up against a quality SEC opponent in Texas A&M.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
Preseason discussions of the 2019 season have focused on the potential of the 1-2 power punch of Friday and Saturday starting left-handers John Doxakis and Asa Lacy. The Aggies need these two hurlers to perform up to their potential for this team to surpass expectations and compete for an SEC title. They can set the tone for the season with two crisp, successful outings this weekend.
The Aggies are also searching for a trusted closer after the departure of super stopper Nolan Hoffman and his 1.14 ERA and 14 saves. Several candidates to fill that role are veteran Mason Cole, who’s finally healthy, and surprise JUCO transfer Kasey Kalich who was dominant in a fall game against Rice and has carried over that break-out outing into a productive spring camp.
Talented lefty freshman Jonathan Childress will get the ball on Sunday. A highly-touted hurler expected to go high in last year’s MLB Draft, Childress lost 3-4 mph on his fastball last spring and that was enough to push him to College Station an a collegiate career. Can he lock down the Sunday starter spot early in the season, or will this be a protracted battle with a deep pitching staff ready to get their shot? With Childress’ above average curveball and off-speed pitches, if he throws strikes and his velocity can get back up to 92-93 mph, then this starting three-man rotation has the potential to be the best Texas A&M has seen since Granger, Moore, and Wunsch in the mid-1990’s.
At the plate, Aggie fans will be looking to see if Braden Shewmake can get back to freshman productivity levels and more. It’s not that Shewmake wasn’t good in 2018, but he didn’t match the expectations of his preseason All-American sophomore campaign. He’s back in the critical three-hole and will be the leader of this offense both as a run producer and a table setter, something that is both rare and valuable in college baseball.
By his own admission, the junior was too aggressive at the plate last season swinging at pitches out of the strike zone and becoming a pull hitter. He’s most productive when he’s spraying the ball to all fields.
The Aggies should be fine at the top of the lineup with veteran Ole Miss transfer Bryce Blaum who has immediately stepped into the vacancy created by Michael Helman and thrived. By all accounts, he’ll be a productive lead-off man and expectations are high for the junior. He stole 22 bases this summer in the Northwoods League.
JUCO transfer Mikey Hoehner was a pleasant surprise in the fall as he immediately established his presence as the catcher position and won the job by the end of fall camp. He’s a unique backstop who actually has speed on the basepaths and could hit anywhere from the two-hole to the five hole. His quick throws to second base and overall defense also has the baseball staff excited about Hoehner. The expectation is that he’ll be an upgrade behind the plate and the best catcher the program has seen since Michael Barash. He’ll be immediately put to the test with the speedy, record-setting Rams who will look to run at every opportunity. This will be a great early season match-up to watch this weekend.
The Aggies return quite a few veterans to the plate, so expectations are pretty high from top-to-bottom in the lineup. Guys like Aaron Walters, Hunter Coleman, Allonte Wingate, Cam Blake, and Logan Foster have crossed the line many times for the Aggies and have had various levels of success. The key in these early games is to find a couple of veterans who can show more consisency at the plate and lock down a starting spot and establish a role in this lineup.
Finally, the Aggies will need to find a dangerous clean-up hitter that can drive in runs and leave the yard at any time. As of now, it’s unclear if this team has that middle of the order power presence. Sophomore Will Frizzell will be given the opportunity to fill that role. He has a nice power stroke, but he has battled injuries throughout the offseason and he has not established himself yet as that big bat in the four-hole.
What's at stake this weekend
As with the start of any new season, Aggie baseball will be looking to get off to a good start. Not just in wins on the season ledger, but also in how the team executes and plays consistently on every pitch. Granted, these games aren't critical to the season resume in regard to postseason scenarios, but good habits and success form in these February non-conference games. The team will begin molding its chemistry and make-up in these first games in February. The staff uses these first 2-3 weeks to solidify the lineup and watch the most productive players rise to the top and which newcomers are ready to contribute.
It’s opening weekend at Olsen Field. Expectations are always high this time of year. 2019 is no different. If Doxakis and Lacy live up to their high potential in the weekend rotation and Shewmake delivers on what should be a big junior campaign leading up to the MLB Draft, this team will be much better than the preseason projections. That starts this weekend against Fordham.
