Diamond Notes: Examining postseason hopes as A&M heads to Hoover

Click above to listen to Gabe's interview with former A&M first baseman John Scheshuk this morning on TexAgs Radio.

Here’s your weekly dose of Monday scattershooting on Aggie Baseball, coming off yet another series loss and entering the SEC Tournament as the No. 11 seed with a final regular season record of 36-19 and 13-17 in the SEC and a No. 20 ranking in the RPI.

• There’s been a lot of talk among Aggies over the last couple of days about whether or not Texas A&M will get into the NCAA Tournament for the 12th straight year and how much work the Ags have left to do in Hoover this week to help their case. The other question being tossed around is whether the Aggies even deserve to be in the field of 64. Here’s the way I see it...

1. The Commodores – Tuesday morning’s matchup with 6th-seeded Vanderbilt is huge. A&M needs more wins to be sure that it’ll make the NCAA Tournament field. Sitting four games below .500 in SEC play and limping to the regular season finish line at 2-7 in its last nine league games is not a good place to be, and keep in mind that the committee counts any game played during the year against a conference opponent as a league game. So while the random “out-of-conference” midweek game between Ole Miss and Mississippi State doesn’t count in the league standings, it’s still a conference game as far as tournament selection goes. The same goes for the SEC Tournament games. So in order to really help itself with the committee, Texas A&M needs to make a nice little run in Hoover. In order to do that, they must start by getting out of day one’s single-elimination round with a win over the Commodores.

Brian Okosun

After a 2-7 finish and three straight series losses, the Aggies find themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

2. Tournament selection – If the Aggies get in, great. Let’s go play ball. In this sport - especially in the postseason - anything is possible, and A&M is certainly capable of getting in. The Ags will have the benefit of finally not facing a bunch of SEC teams (and SEC starting pitching) and being able to breathe a little bit, get hot and make a run in their regional. But I’ll also say that if the Aggies are not selected, then they don’t deserve to be in the Tournament, and none of us will have much of a gripe about it in regard to the committee’s “go/no-go” decision on A&M. With how poorly the Aggies have played down the stretch, they certainly don’t look like a team primed to make any kind of noise in the NCAAs, and a one-and-out scenario on Tuesday with a loss to Vandy may very well doom their 2018 post-season hopes.

• The 13-17 SEC record is not a total dealbreaker with the NCAA Tournament selection committee, but it’s certainly not optimal position. Some recent history...

In 2011, LSU finished the season with a record nearly identical to A&M's current mark. The Tigers were 36-20 and 13-17 in the SEC, went 11-17 vs. top 50 teams and ranked No. 21 in the RPI. That was the last year that the SEC Tournament took eight teams, and the Tigers missed out on the trip to Hoover. They also failed to make the NCAA Tournament.

In 2012, Auburn went 31-28 overall and 13-17 in league play. The Tigers were ranked 57th in the RPI and went 12-17 vs. the top 50. Auburn went 1-2 in Hoover and missed the NCAA Tournament.

In 2013, A&M’s first year in the league, the Aggies went 34-29 and 13-16 in the SEC (had one game lost to weather). A&M went just 10-22 vs. the top 50 but got in with a decent RPI of 32 and a hot close to the season. A&M also went 2-2 in Hoover, with impressive wins over Florida and Vandy. You might remember that one; the Aggies were part of the last regional announced on TV but actually wound up as a surprise 2-seed at Oregon State.

Also in ’13, Auburn was 33-23 and 13-17 in the SEC but had a worse RPI than A&M at 47 and went 11-16 vs. top 50 opponents. The Tigers went 0-1 in Hoover and did not make the NCAAs.

In 2015, Auburn went 36-26 and once again sat four games below .500 at 13-17 in SEC play. The Tigers ranked No. 26 in the RPI, went 12-20 vs. the top 50 and went 1-2 in Hoover. Auburn got into the NCAA Tournament in the Tallahassee Regional.

Also in ’15, South Carolina was 32-25 overall and 13-17 in the SEC. The Gamecocks had a very pedestrian RPI ranking of 64 and went 8-11 vs. the top 50. South Carolina went 0-1 in Hoover and missed the NCAAs.

In 2017, South Carolina went 35-25 overall and 13-17 in the SEC. The RPI was at 31, and they went 11-19 vs. the top 50. The Gamecocks got hot in Hoover, going 3-2 and getting eliminated by LSU in the SEC Tournament semifinals. They missed the NCAA Tourmament.

Also in ’17, Ole Miss was 32-25 and just two games below the belt in the SEC at 14-16. The RPI was at 36, and the Rebels were 13-21 vs. top 50 teams. Ole Miss dropped a one-run game to Auburn in round one of the SEC Tournament. The Tigers, at 16-14 in league play during the regular season, were the last team in the field of 64. The Rebels did not hear their name called on Selection Monday.

So what does this research tell us as it pertains to A&M’s NCAA Tournament hopes? Oftentimes 13 wins just won’t cut it with the selection committee. Dating back to 2011, five of the seven teams in the SEC that finished the regular season with 13 league victories - and one 14-win team in Ole Miss - failed to reach the post-season. The two that did make it - A&M in ’13 and Auburn in ’15 - won their first SEC Tournament games to get into the double-elimination bracket. It should also be noted that neither the Aggies nor the Tigers made it out of their regional.

• Now, that RPI ranking, which is still hanging around inside the top 20, is still helping the Aggies. A&M has a higher RPI than any of the teams mentioned above who were squarely on the bubble over the past seven years. The strength of schedule, which currently sits at No. 15, also plays into A&M’s favor. But while it’s pretty much a given that the SEC will get at least nine and maybe even 10 into the NCAAs, the odds of the committee taking 11 teams still seem a bit far-fetched – despite the last two D1Baseball.com projections featuring what would be an NCAA record 11 teams getting into the field. With A&M basically finishing 11th out of 14 teams in the league standings, are they the odd man out, barring a big run in Hoover this week, if the committee doesn’t go with 11 from the conference and instead takes, say, 10 teams? Here are the four teams battling for spots 8-10 if an unprecedented 11th spot doesn’t come to fruition...

• A&M: 36-19 overall; 13-17 in SEC; RPI #20; SOS #15; 11-15 vs. top 50
• LSU: 33-23 overall; 15-15 in SEC; RPI #44; SOS #18; 12-15 vs. top 50
• MSU: 31-24 overall; 15-15 in SEC; RPI #26; SOS #8; 16-17 vs. top 50
• UK: 34-21 overall; 13-17 in SEC; RPI #25; SOS #19; 16-15 vs. top 50

Brian Okosun

Head coach Rob Childress and the Aggies may be sweating out the NCAA selection show if they can't muster a few wins in Hoover.

If the Aggies go home early in Hoover, it’s safe to say that anyone associated with the Maroon and White - including fans of the Aggies - will be sitting on the edge of their seats when the bracket is unveiled, and it really could go either way.

• Only one time in history has a team ranked in the top 20 in the RPI failed to get into the NCAA Tournament. That happened two years ago, when North Carolina had a No. 19 ranking in the RPI and its strength of schedule sat at No. 8. The Tar Heels' record was similar to the one the Aggies have this year. They were 34-21 overall and 13-17 in the ACC. That year, UNC was 14-16 vs. the top 50, but it missed the league tournament and was controversially snubbed from NCAA Tournament play by the committee.

Now, if the Aggies lose to Vandy (RPI No. 29), they could very well drop out of the top 20 in the RPI so this historical note wouldn’t matter in this case. But A&M could really use another top 50 win, and getting one Tuesday vs. the ‘Dores would likely resonate with the committee.

• A win over Vandy is certainly doable, but these are two teams going in two different directions right now. The Aggies have dropped three straight series and have just two conference wins in May. Meanwhile, the Commodores are coming off of a series sweep over Kentucky and have won five of their last six league games entering action in Hoover.

• Looking back on the weekend, it’s pretty simple what the narrative of the South Carolina series - and the entire season - is with this team. Compete at the plate, manage the game on the mound and make all of the routine plays, and the Aggies stand a great chance to pick up wins. But when you make as many mistakes on defense and strike out as often as we saw in games two and three this weekend, you’ll get beat. Even bad teams will beat you when you play like the Aggies played on Friday and Saturday, and South Carolina is a good, solid team that outplayed A&M and didn’t beat itself. So many mistakes – passed balls behind the plate, errors on the dirt, laughable miscues in the corner outfield, etc. It was ugly. Add to that a very poor performance on the mound from Stephen Kolek on Saturday, and what we saw is a nightmare Senior Day and a full-fledged limp to the finish line with a 10-1 defeat.

• A&M heads into the SEC Tournament still having no idea who its best nine position players are. They don’t know, I don’t know and you don’t know. And that’s not a good place to be right now. However, I’ll say this about the lineup...

By default, Michael Helman has to lead off. Zach DeLoach went 0-10 in the one-hole on Thursday and Friday, and while he hit some balls really hard up there, he seems more comfortable in the lower-third of the order.

While I want A&M to play its best defensive lineup, Allonte Wingate’s very poor defensive weekend might lend itself to the Aggies going back to Will Frizzell in right to get both freshman lefty bats - Frizzell and Aaron Walters - into the lineup at the same time.

If a right-hander starts on Tuesday (at the time of writing, the pitching matchup has not yet been released), I would start Walters in left over Foster. He has the best-looking swing on the team and is really battling right now, hitting balls on a line, producing long at bats and even drawing walks. That isn’t what you’re getting from Foster right now.

I would start Chris Andritsos at DH and hit him in the four-hole. He’s one of the few guys on the team with the type of physical presence that can strike fear into the opposing pitcher. Additionally, he’s coming off of a 2-for-3 day against SC on Saturday, driving in the Aggies’ only run of the game.

I would hit Cole Bedford in the two-hole. He seems comfortable up there and does much better with the protection of batting between Helman and Braden Shewmake. Foster hasn’t gotten it done up there in the top third of the lineup for quite some time.

• The lineup...

Here’s what I would do versus a right-handed starting pitcher...

• 1. Helman - 2B
• 2. Bedford - C
• 3. Shewmake - SS
• 4. Andritsos - DH
• 5. Frizzell - RF
• 6. Coleman - 1B
• 7. Walters - LF
• 8. Janca - 3B
• 9. DeLoach - CF

If it’s a lefty, I'd go with this...

• 1. Helman - 2B
• 2. Bedford - C
• 3. Shewmake - SS
• 4. Andritsos - DH
• 5. Frizzell - RF
• 6. Coleman - 1B
• 7. Foster - LF
• 8. Janca - 3B
• 9. DeLoach - CF

• As far as the pitching goes, I could see the Aggies starting Kaylor Chafin on Tuesday and letting him give them as much as he can in a starter's role. He's made a couple of recent midweek starts and looked good doing it. After that, the bridge to Nolan Hoffman on the back end would likely look like a combination of lefties Asa Lacy and Dustin Saenz and veteran right-hander Cason Sherrod, who is enjoying quite the resurgence over the last couple of weeks. He appears to be much closer to the form he showed late last season to help carry the Aggies to Omaha.

There you go... some news, notes and a few thoughts and observations from my vantage point on a Monday. Big week coming up and an all-important game with Vandy gets it started on Tuesday morning.

Key notes from John Scheschuk interview

Texas A&M's RPI is so high, but they have had to win a lot of games in the past couple weeks to stay in it and they haven't done that. They are firmly on the bubble and they need to win tomorrow morning. They are used to getting up in the morning and having their schedule start early but the fans won't be there and they won't have a lot going on, but the game will be one of those "how much do you love playing baseball" kind of games.

I remember in 1998, Jason Hutchins, who is still coaching here, telling us "just play and enjoy the moment." Logan Foster, Braden Shewmake and Michael Helman need to hear that and play well, they are the key to the lineup. One positive about where the Aggies are right now, is that there aren't any expectations. They aren't Florida, who are expected to win the tournament and compete for a world series.

A lot of this about getting on a roll for tournament play. A&M has a talented roster, but that negative momentum weighs on you and keeps getting worse. It's going to require guys that haven't played well to step up and get it going. You have to win tomorrow to get into the tournament, and also get rolling in the right direction from there.

Aaron Walters is definitely trending up and you have to go with the hot hand going into the post season. Logan Foster has been a middle of the lineup kind of guy all season, and I don't know why for back-to-back years he has fallen off late. You have to mix it up, if someone isn't producing, you have to move things around.

This is about business now, this isn't about hurting feelings and people getting upset. You have to do what is best for the team. It's about going with your gut at this point in the season. I think Allonte Wingate should be in the line up every game and Walters needs to be given a chance since he is the hot hand.

To me, it all starts with Braden Shewmake. He has been in kind of a sophomore slump, but we are saying that about a guy hitting. 329 with 40 plus RBIs, so he hasn't played bad, but I want to see him put the team on his back and lead them through the tournament. He has to produce every single day.