Series Preview: Texas A&M vs. No. 17 LSU
Who: Louisiana State University (19-11, 5-4 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field @ Blue Bell Park — College Station, TX
When:
- Thursday 7:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
- Friday 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
- Saturday 2:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Pitching matchups
Thursday: Stephen Kolek (RHP, 3-3 3.02) vs. Zack Hess (RHP, 4-3, 4.93)
Friday: John Doxakis (LHP, 4-0, 1.59) vs. Caleb Gilbert (RHP, 3-2, 3.79)
Saturday: Mitchell Kilkenny (RHP, 5-0, 1.86) vs. Ma'Khail Hilliard (RHP, 6-1, 0.76)
Scouting LSU
The Tigers have been scuffling by their standards most of the season with a 19-11 record. They lost two at home to Notre Dame and won two out of three against Texas in Baton Rouge, as well. And that's been their mode throughout the rest of the season and into SEC play – they win a couple and then lose a couple. LSU hasn't gotten hot and gone on a big run, and it hasn't dropped more than two in a row so far. The Tigers have been treading water and doing just enough to stay competitive and ranked, and they're now only one game out of the lead in the SEC West at 5-4 in conference play.
The starting pitching has been inconsistent. Staff ace Zack Hess has been wildly inconsistent in seven starts, earning a 4-3 record and a bloated 4.93 ERA that has taken a hit from a couple of really bad outings. When he takes the mound on Thursday, will he be the preseason all-SEC caliber hurler or will he get chased early from the game, leaving his teammates in a big hole?
No. 2 starter Caleb Gilbert is more steady, but a 3-2 record and a 3.79 ERA is not a stat line that scares many SEC lineups. However, the right-hander is formidable and not someone to overlook. On Saturday, all eyes will be on wiry true freshman Ma'Khail Hilliard, who sports a 6-1 record and a sparkling 0.76 ERA. Is he the real deal or will teams catch up to him once a good scouting report can identify his weaknesses? We shall see. The Tigers have rarely strayed away from home, so will a hostile environment on the road be a factor?
LSU's bullpen has a few quality arms like Austin Bain (2.53), Matthew Beck (1.23) and Nick Bush (3.15), but it's been "bullpen by committee." Coach Mainieri doesn't have a dominant closer that he goes to in every late-inning save siuation. Overall, LSU has a team ERA of 3.73 compared to Texas A&M's 2.83.
At the plate, it's more of the same. LSU has solid hitters throughout the lineup. Six batters are hitting above .300. However, the Tigers don't boast that big, power, RBI stick or a .400 hitter that opposing pitchers must keep off the basepaths. Brandt Broussard leads LSU in hitting at .363, but he's been injured and out of the lineup the past couple of weeks. Zach Watson is hitting .344 and has come on in SEC play to take up some of th offensive slack. Veteran outfielder Antoine Duplantis is always a tough out. He's hitting .336, while Beau Jordan is swinging at a .330 clip. LSU doesn't have a hitter with more RBI's than A&M's big three of Helman (22), Shewmake (29) and Foster (30), but up and down the lineup, LSU hitters are driving in runs. Eight LSU hitters have 16 or more RBI. LSU is hitting .299 as a team, while Texas A&M is hitting .288.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
There will be several important storylines to pay attention to this weekend. First, the Aggies need a quality start from Thursday night starter Stephen Kolek. A&M has dropped all three opening games in SEC play, and a team can't survive in this league losing every Friday (Thursday) night. Even more importantly this weekend is that LSU's No. 1 starter has been inconsistent so far in 2018 with a 4-3 record and a pedestrian 4.93 ERA. Zack Hess is extremely talented, and he's still dangerous. When he's on, he's a top-line SEC starter. When he's off, he's a disaster. We'll know quickly how this series may turn by Hess' early performance on the mound. Also, Kolek needs to have a quality start as well.
Fast forward to Saturday's third game and the incredible match-up between veteran Mitchell Kilkenny and his 1.59 ERA against freshman phenom Ma'Khail Hilliard. Can the young Hilliard keep his poise against the Olsen Field crowd? The weather is also supposed to be unseasonably cold and windy, so the pitcher who can battle through the elements might have the best results on Saturday.
After that, the Aggies just need to play clean baseball. Make the plays in front of you, and don't give LSU any free baserunners or unearned runs. This series has been very tight historically. A&M holds an 8-7 lead in the series since the Aggies joined the SEC, and many of the games have come down to a late run.
On offense, the Aggies need "some" production from the lower half of the lineup. When you face the quality of arms that LSU possesses, those caliber of pitchers can navigate around a couple of dangerous hitters like Michael Helman and Braden Shewmake if they know the bats behind them are struggling and not a big threat to do damage. Guys like Cole Bedford, Will Frizzell and Hunter Coleman need to have good, competitive at-bats and deliver some offensive production.
Finally, will anybody other than Nolan Hoffman come out of the bullpen and provide an effective outing? It would be nice if veterans Cason Sherrod and Kaylor Chafin step up and deliver some quality relief outings this weekend.
What's at stake this weekend
One hates to be dramatic nine games into a 30-game SEC schedule, but there's no way around it. Texas A&M must win this home series against the LSU Tigers. First of all, the series is at Olsen Field, and the Aggies have already dropped their first home series. It's hard to imagine this team rallying back from four games under .500 after already losing two of its five home SEC series. Second, LSU is beatable this season. The Tigers have already dropped 11 games in 2018. Coach Mainieri's squad has been bitten by the injury bug along the infield, and their No. 1 starting pitcher has been wildly inconsistent. Still, LSU is ranked No. 17 in the D1Baseball poll and has a solid lineup top to bottom. With that said, these games will be played in College Station in front of what will be three raucous Aggie crowds. Texas A&M needs to take care of business at home...now.
Tonight starts a six-game SEC homestand, with Alabama visiting Olsen Field next week. At a minimum, the Aggies need to finish the homestand at 4-2, and 5-1 should be the goal. Anything less than that and it will be hard digging out of the current hole with Florida and Arkansas still on the docket.
