HoustonAg2106 said:

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dcaggie04 said:

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We are tied for 13th in most wins vs. Top 50 opponents (8 wins) and we are 1 of 3 teams in all of D1 that have lost 2 or less games against teams outside the Top 50 (Oregon St. - 2, A&M - 2, ECU - 1).

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Charlotte has 10 losses to team outside the top 50 and they are above us in the RPI...

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For now. They play 9 or their remaining 13 regular season games against teams with sub-.500 records. Win or lose, their RPI will take a good hit.

Here's a tip: the committee picks who they want, regardless of RPI. If the numbers support their picks, they'll cite them. If not, they'll find another way to justify their selections.

brainman5000 said:

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Here's a tip: the committee picks who they want, regardless of RPI. If the numbers support their picks, they'll cite them. If not, they'll find another way to justify their selections.

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Yep. We've seen this time and again. The almost only hard and fast rule seems to be miss your conference tournament don't expect to make the NCAA field even with a good RPI.

I disagree that they pick regardless of RPI. I just think it's simply a component. Part of the reason it's oft cited is that it usually correlates to the other factors... conference performance, wins against good teams, series wins, late season performance. In our case, the unexpected (hopefully) weakness of our OOC SOS is disguising the other strengths of this team in the math making RPI a poor indicator for us.

I agree completely with the poster that said an SEC team with a winning conference record would not get left out.

I don't think it means as much as you think. If it did, we should play every game on the road. Wins mean more, losses count less. Obviously, that isn't the intention.

It's like standardized testing... everyone starts teaching to the test, which renders the results less indicative of actual standing with each iteration.

They routinely pass up other factors for RPI, whether it's for national seeds or a tournament berth. I'm not going to dig up previous posts right now but a lot analysis is out there. I'll dig through stuff

On the rare occasion, you see big outliers like UNC but that meshes into another factor which is winning games and not just scheduling yourself to a great RPI.

Of course it always gets cloudy at the margin but I'm going to go ahead and say if you can get the RPI to a certain point there is almost zero chance you'll be left out. And if you're from the SEC and won a few games, that threshold is even lower.

We probably shouldn't play every game on the road because RPI and other things are still driven heavily by wins and losses, of your's, your opponents, and their opponents. Yes, there is an adjustment but that's a secondary part of the formula.

If we could play a bunch of good teams on the road and win a decent amount of those games, that'd be great for everything but our budget and our fans. But that's not how we or anyone in a major southern-ish conference is going to schedule.

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I agree completely with the poster that said an SEC team with a winning conference record would not get left out

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Could be. Recent data says 15-15 isn't enough to be a lock but nothing shows 16-14 isn't good enough.

I think the minimum "goal" is to get RPI above 40 or 45 and keep the conference record at .500. And certainly to stay above 60 in RPI.

Worse than 60 or 3 or more games under .500 in conference and you're surely staying home.

I believe it was discussed before that in 2011 they overlooked the RPI for national seeds. We got left out of the national seed due to Stilson being injured. Or something to that effect.

histag10 said:

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I believe it was discussed before that in 2011 they overlooked the RPI for national seeds. We got left out of the national seed due to Stilson being injured. Or something to that effect.

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Well, our RPI on selection day was 10th.

RPIs 1-6 and 11 and 12 were national seeds.

Folks were salty because 12 was the Longhorns. 11 was Rice.

They look to award some non-SEC/ACC conference winners. Which Texas and Rice were.

Within the SEC and ACC, RPI drives it, I think. 2011 saw North Carolina get a national seed over GaTech with a better conference record.

I spoke yesterday about Florida last year having the 4th best SEC regular season record and getting the #1 national seed.

One thing to note is that not all of the teams currently ahead of us will make the tourney. La Tech isn't going unless they win their conference tourney. I doubt you see four teams from American Athletic make it in (I figure you may get only 2). So there goes 1 or 2 more teams. Will Baylor, Utah or FSU make it in with a sub-.500 conference record?

What about a team like St. John's? They are currently in 3rd place in the Big East (behind Creighton and Xavier who both have RPIs in the 100s). If they don't win the league or tourney, do they make it in? With their remaining schedule, you would expect them to drop.

TXAggie2011 said:

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histag10 said:

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I believe it was discussed before that in 2011 they overlooked the RPI for national seeds. We got left out of the national seed due to Stilson being injured. Or something to that effect.

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Well, our RPI on selection day was 10th.

RPIs 1-6 and 11 and 12 were national seeds.

Folks were salty because 12 was the Longhorns. 11 was Rice.

They look to award some non-SEC/ACC conference winners. Which Texas and Rice were.

Within the SEC and ACC, RPI drives it, I think. 2011 saw North Carolina get a national seed over GaTech with a better conference record.

I spoke yesterday about Florida last year having the 4th best SEC regular season record and getting the #1 national seed.

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Technically I believe we tied Texas for conference champions, and then we also won the conference tournament. We also had a higher RPI. I would say that was why people were "salty" over the situation. Again, I believe it was eventually said that they went with Texas over us because Stilson was injured.

it's an interesting situation for sure. Looking at Warren Nolan's RPI...I think every team in the top 30 would get in right now. Baylor has the #1 SoS in the country. Florida State has the #16 SoS. They will make the field even with a conference mark a game or two below .500.

then between #31 and #40...there are a few teams with so-so resumes that are definitely on the bubble like St. John's (SoS #208), Utah (18-17), and Louisiana Tech. A&M would probably get in before those 3.

then between #41 and #50...Tennessee is out and UConn is on shaky ground. The rest of the group looks pretty good including #49 UCLA, #50 Lafayette, and #51 Washington. I think those 3 teams and Ole Miss would get in before A&M.

the committee has been known to reach down into 50's (and I think the 60's one time) to grab a west coast team because they feel the RPI is sometimes biased against the west coast clubs

a quick late night back of the envelope calculation...

64 teams make the postseason.

it looks like 17 conferences will be 1-bid leagues ---- the regular season champion will almost assuredly be outside the top 50...and thus only the tournament champion will make the field.

64 minus 17 equals 47. So if you're a power conference at-large candidate...you definitely want to rank inside the RPI top 47 to feel safe.

then there are 6 conferences that have a decent chance to have a team make the field that does not win its league automatic bid (via the conference tournament). The most obvious ones are the Southland (McNeese) and Missouri Valley (Mo. State). Those leagues are primed to steal bids if the regular season champ gets knocked off in the conference tournament. The Mountain West (New Mexico) and Sun Belt (Lafayette) could as well. Perhaps the A10 or Southern also.

let's assume half of those tournaments have upsets. So 47 minus 3 equals 44. Then if you're a power conference at-large candidate...need to be inside the RPI top 44 to feel safe.

finally it's unlikely that there would be an upset conference winner in the SEC, ACC, B1G, AAC, Big 12, and C-USA; but it could happen. And that leaves the Pac-12...a league w/o a tournament, but one where the committee has been known to reach outside the top 50 to grab an at-large team.

so I'd say a team with A&M's current resume should be safe for an at-large bid with an RPI around #42

I am not concerned at all at this point... if we loose every series from here out maybe

BeatHellOutOfTU said:

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I am not concerned at all at this point... if we loose every series from here out maybe

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It's LOSE.

"Loose" means not tight.

Yeah, like when I 'unloosen' my shoelaces.

I'm gonna loose my mind

Win more and RPI trends up as do rankings. But even if we were a 4 seed (we won't be), pride should lead to finding a way to win.

The team arguably is ahead of the worst imagined outcome for the year and lags our best imagined outcome. Shewmake is a breakout player offensively and defensively and the rest of the underclassmen have had (and most taken) opportunities to shine and did so. Need to focus and finish strong because regular season endings affect seeding.

If we lose every game, our grip on a postseason berth will loosen.

Side note: no at large team will ever be a 4 seed. As W noted, there are about 20 league winners who would not qualify at large. It is from those 20 that they will populate those 16 4 seeds. I think even when Texas won the Big12 a couple years ago after a horrible season, they were still a 3.