Don't have time for the entire bracket breakdown this week (I do actually work sometimes) but wanted to share some thoughts here.
Texas A&M:
Projected seed: 9
Remaining games: @ Oklahoma (pick em?), @ Arkansas (+9), Texas (-5), Kentucky (-5), @ LSU (-1)
Largely unchanged from a week ago, under-performed against expectations in both games, but not tragically. Torvik tourney cast has our odds at 92%. Avoiding disaster against Ole Miss raises the floor quite a bit. Any combination of three wins here seals the deal. Not getting killed by Arkansas would really increase the chances of getting in with just two more wins.
Games that matter: (projected seeds), team we're for in bold
Friday 2/20:
(B?) VCU at (8) St. Louis - 6 PM - ESPN2 - I'm skeptical that there's really a path here for VCU anyway, but if there is, it definitely includes this win. VCU has won ten straight, might as well end the dream here.
(9) Indiana at (2) Purdue - 7 PM - FOX
Bowling Green at (B?) Miami (OH) - 7:30 CBSSN
Saturday 2/21
Wake Forest at (B-out) Virginia Tech - 11 AM - ACC Network
(9) Texas at (9) Georgia - 2:30 PM - SEC Network - Our easiest path to the tournament definitely includes beating Texas again, something we haven't done in like 40 years, but even if it didn't we want Texas to be as good as possible since we already beat them on the road and we play them twice compared to only once for Georgia.
(11) Missouri at (5) Arkansas - 3 PM - ESPN
Oregon at (10) USC - 3 PM - FS1
Boston College at (8) SMU - 3 PM - ACC Network - Interesting call here. I think in most universes it's probably better for SMU to go ahead and win this game and they're unlikely to lose it anyway.
West Virginia at (11) TCU - 4 PM - Peacock/NBCSN - I had been keeping an eye on West Virginia because of a nice schedule to close the year but a home loss to Utah last night probably did them in.
(B out) San Diego State at Colorado State - 5 pm - CBSSN
(2) Illinois at (11) UCLA - 7 PM - FOX - If a tree falls in a forest, and nobody hears it, does Mick Cronin still complain about it? Huge game for UCLA here to keep hanging on to the edge of the bubble. They also still have USC twice for a cross-town-bubble-showdown series.
(EXTREMELY bubble) New Mexico at Fresno State - 7 pm - CBSSN
(10) Santa Clara at San Francisco - 9 PM - CBSSN - Santa Clara might have to win at St. Mary's to get in anyway, but a loss here (which is much more realistic than them losing to Oregon State) would probably do them in
Sunday 2/22
(10) Ohio State at (4) Michigan State - Noon - CBS: By Torvik's "rooting guide" this game is even more impactful than Texas beating Georgia.
(7) Iowa at (7) Wisconsin - 3 PM - FS1 - Doesn't matter for us but if you need something to watch. Both of these teams are probably good to go, especially after Iowa beat Nebraska Tuesday, but they do still have some tricky games left.
Texas A&M:
Projected seed: 9
Remaining games: @ Oklahoma (pick em?), @ Arkansas (+9), Texas (-5), Kentucky (-5), @ LSU (-1)
Largely unchanged from a week ago, under-performed against expectations in both games, but not tragically. Torvik tourney cast has our odds at 92%. Avoiding disaster against Ole Miss raises the floor quite a bit. Any combination of three wins here seals the deal. Not getting killed by Arkansas would really increase the chances of getting in with just two more wins.
Games that matter: (projected seeds), team we're for in bold
Friday 2/20:
(B?) VCU at (8) St. Louis - 6 PM - ESPN2 - I'm skeptical that there's really a path here for VCU anyway, but if there is, it definitely includes this win. VCU has won ten straight, might as well end the dream here.
(9) Indiana at (2) Purdue - 7 PM - FOX
Bowling Green at (B?) Miami (OH) - 7:30 CBSSN
Saturday 2/21
Wake Forest at (B-out) Virginia Tech - 11 AM - ACC Network
(9) Texas at (9) Georgia - 2:30 PM - SEC Network - Our easiest path to the tournament definitely includes beating Texas again, something we haven't done in like 40 years, but even if it didn't we want Texas to be as good as possible since we already beat them on the road and we play them twice compared to only once for Georgia.
(11) Missouri at (5) Arkansas - 3 PM - ESPN
Oregon at (10) USC - 3 PM - FS1
Boston College at (8) SMU - 3 PM - ACC Network - Interesting call here. I think in most universes it's probably better for SMU to go ahead and win this game and they're unlikely to lose it anyway.
West Virginia at (11) TCU - 4 PM - Peacock/NBCSN - I had been keeping an eye on West Virginia because of a nice schedule to close the year but a home loss to Utah last night probably did them in.
(B out) San Diego State at Colorado State - 5 pm - CBSSN
(2) Illinois at (11) UCLA - 7 PM - FOX - If a tree falls in a forest, and nobody hears it, does Mick Cronin still complain about it? Huge game for UCLA here to keep hanging on to the edge of the bubble. They also still have USC twice for a cross-town-bubble-showdown series.
(EXTREMELY bubble) New Mexico at Fresno State - 7 pm - CBSSN
(10) Santa Clara at San Francisco - 9 PM - CBSSN - Santa Clara might have to win at St. Mary's to get in anyway, but a loss here (which is much more realistic than them losing to Oregon State) would probably do them in
Sunday 2/22
(10) Ohio State at (4) Michigan State - Noon - CBS: By Torvik's "rooting guide" this game is even more impactful than Texas beating Georgia.
(7) Iowa at (7) Wisconsin - 3 PM - FS1 - Doesn't matter for us but if you need something to watch. Both of these teams are probably good to go, especially after Iowa beat Nebraska Tuesday, but they do still have some tricky games left.
