bobinator said:

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I still want to know the methodology behind this "model"

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Its a secret....shhh

bobinator said:

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I still want to know the methodology behind this "model"

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It is mainly the six above metrics and information from the quads. I try to figure out every previous year how to weight each metric and every year it seems to change. I was pretty close last year but there was still some head scratchers.

I know they released the women's top 16 seeds, but I haven't seen the men's version released yet. Thought it would have come out this past weekend. Hopefully next and then I can go in and figure out the weight that should be put behind each metric.

I think you need to break Quad 1 into Quad 1A and Quad 1B like it is on the team sheet and that would help a lot

I think that's the biggest mistake people make when looking at this thing is grouping the Quad 1 games the same. I'd probably actually break Quad 1 into three categories.

Regular Quad 1 games, home or away
Quad 1A games
What you might call a Quad1A+ bonus: Top Ten NET road wins.

That, I might be able to do.

Huge win by Iowa St. Over Houston!

I think I'd have Auburn below Mizzou now with the Tigers' win against Vandy and Auburn's loss to Miss. State.

Same number of Quad 1 wins at 4 (and 3 Quad 1A wins to 2 for Auburn) and they're 7-8 in Quad 1 & 2 to 6-12 for Auburn.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/47809690/bubble-watch-mens-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-bracket-predictions-2026

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

NET is still lagging but higher NET ranked teams are left out in favor of lower ranked ones every year. We'll see what Lunardi, Palm, and bracket matrix think about it.

I added Q1A to my model and here is the seeding that my model is spitting out:

Florida - 3 - 2-3 Q1A
Alabama - 4 - 3-5 Q1A
Vanderbilt - 4 - 1-3 Q1A
Tennessee - 5 - 4-5 Q1A
Arkansas - 5 - 3-6 Q1A
Kentucky - 7 - 3-6 Q1A
A&M - 9 - 3-4 Q1A
Texas - 10 - 2-5 Q1A
Georgia - 10 - 1-3 Q1A
Missouri - 10 - 3-3 Q1A
Auburn - 11 - 2-8 Q1A

Auburn is in deep trouble. Might be able to lose one more and keep that 11 seed but I don't see a sub 500 SEC team making it this year.

Yeah, not a good start for Pearl Jr.

The preview of the 16 top teams finally came out. So that helps me make some adjustments to my model. Here is how the bubble looks not counting any of today's games:

9 - Miami, FL
9 - SMU
9 - Georgia
9 - UCF

Last 4 Byes
10 - Texas A&M
10 - Texas
10 - USC
10 - Missouri

Last 4 In
11 - Santa Clara
11 - Auburn
11 - Indiana
11 - New Mexico

First 3 Out - It really ends after these 3
Ohio State
VCU
UCLA

Everyone else will have to win out in the regular season to get into the conversation. And of course, there is always a few bid stealers.

Only two mid-major teams that can withstand a bid thief is Utah State (Mountain West) and Saint Louis (A-10). And for the West Coast Conference, anyone outside Gonzaga and St. Mary's (and maybe Santa Clara) would be a bid stealer. The other inverse bid stealer might be Miami (OH). If they go undefeated in the regular season but lose in the conference tourney, they might be a bid thief as they currently would not make it as an at large.

So as I can see it now, there is a max of 4 bid thieves unless one of the power conference teams has a Cinderella run in the conference tourney. So definitely want to stay no lower than the 10 seed to make sure you make the dance.