***Sneak Peak Saturday - Committee to reveal top 16 Thread***

3,015 Views | 46 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by HJack20
ColleyvilleAg06
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The Committee has been meeting all week to indoctrinate the new members, go over the protocol and as part of the process, seeds the top 4 seed lines. They then release the top 16 teams (in order), and what region they fall in today.

We have been told they have taken into account all games through Friday night for their rankings.

11:30 Central - on CBS (Yes, it is during the A&M game)

My projections of what i think it is

1 Seeds

1) Auburn clear #1 with an insane 13 quad 1 wins (no one else has more than 8)
2) Alabama 6-1 in quad 1A games and a pretty clear #2
3) Duke outstanding predictive numbers
4) Florida Lacked the non conf SOS and high-end elite wins that the rest of the SEC had, until the last week winning at Auburn and at Mississippi State to for now claim the 4th

2 Seeds
5) Tennessee

6) Texas A&M (Lock) Outstanding resume numbers (better than even Duke) but lagging predictive numbers (for a 2 seed). Ultimately it feels like A&M will get rewarded for going out of conference and racking up several high end wins on a neutral court (Purdue, Texas Tech, Creighton).

7) Houston (Lock) Predictive metrics darling (#2, #1, #3), it will be interesting to see where the committee has them during the sneak peak reveal on Saturday morning. There are 38 teams that have at least 2 quad 1A wins this season. Houston is not one of those teams. Their lone Q1A is at Kansas which is great but beyond that…they have built their resume on pounding bad teams

8) Purdue (Lock) Very similar overall profile as A&M, A&M has a bit better on the resume numbers, Purdue has better predictives. I am glad A&M owns the head to head on a neutral (Indy) court.


3 Seeds
9) Iowa State (Lock) 7-4 vs quad 1, 9th in SOR, solid overall resume but still behind the top 8, the last team that feels currently in the same league as A&M if this was selection Sunday

10) Michigan (Lock) - rocketing up the seed list particularly after knocking off Purdue,
predictive numbers wont give them consideration for anything more than a 3 seed right now

11) Kentucky (Lock) 7 quad 1A wins ties Auburn for the most in the country. That number alone hides a lot of warts with this resume which otherwise would be a few spots lower.

12) Kansas (Lock) Better predictive numbers (avg 10.7) than resume (avg 16) . Elite wins to start the year vs. Duke and Michigan State. Also picked up a win over Iowa State. The home loss to West Virginia and the sheer number of losses knock them down to a 3 at best.

4 Seeds
13) Arizona (Lock) great predictives, subpar resume #s, didn't do much in non conference but has been elite in the Big 12

14) Wisconsin (Lock) - #9 in SOR with a win over Arizona in non conference and winning the games they are supposed to in conference.

15) Texas Tech (Lock) Didn't do much in the non conference but they have done great work in the Big 12 knocking off Arizona and also winning at Houston. Much better predictive numbers (avg 10) than resume (avg 19).

16) St. John's The loss to Villanova on Wednesday knocks them down a full seed line and they only have 1 quad 1 game left on the schedule. Holding off on lock status given the weak SOS down the stretch until they get 1 more win.

ColleyvilleAg06
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Other teams that may sneak in:

1) Marquette
2) Ole Miss
3) Illinois
4) Michigan State
5) UCLA
6) Missouri
7) Memphis


Things to watch for

1) Obviously, where is A&M, most reasonable projections have A&M between 6-8. 9 at the absolute worst. Where exactly A&M falls will say alot about how much the committee is weighting resume and Non conf SOS (which favors A&M), or things like predictives. Also where Houston falls will be a big indicator of this. If Houston is a 1 seed thats bad news for A&M. (Houston is strong on the predictive side, where A&M is weak)

2) Will the SEC have 3 one seeds. If we don't have 3 one seeds now, we won't have 3 one seeds on Selection Sunday. SEC currently and very clearly has 3 of the best 4 profiles, I dont see that evidence being any more clear in a month than it already is.

3) Does the 5th best SEC team (likely A&M) end up with Auburn (the #1 overall) or the worst 1 SEC 1 seed (Florida). If that is the case today, expect the same result on Selection Sunday.
bobinator
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I'm not sure what #3 means
ColleyvilleAg06
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bobinator said:

I'm not sure what #3 means


Their bracketing principles necessitate the top 4 teams in a conference are in different regions (if they are top 4 seeds). I would expect there are 5 sec teams, likely 3 1 seeds, and two 2 seeds. What region is that 5th team in… do they purposely put that team in with the 3rd best 1 seed (Florida?)

We all expect Tennessee to be the 2 seed in dukes region because that's basically what their rules require regardless of snake seeding. But what happens to the 5th sec team?
bobinator
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I guess I don't see why it matters. If the seed lines follows your projection it'll be Florida anyway. Why would they juke our seed to put us against Auburn or Alabama? What would be the point?
greg.w.h
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Why do selection committees exist? To cause controversy…
ColleyvilleAg06
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I don't think they will juke the seed. But if in a scenario where A&M is #8… and they intentionally put us with #4 Florida, that will be telling. They will not only release which 4 are in what region but they will say who is 1-16 in what order.
bobinator
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I guess, i just don't see why they'd do it. What advantage is that for the committee?
ColleyvilleAg06
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My guess is that they stick Tennessee with Duke in the east and A&M with Florida in the west and don't make Alabama or Auburn play another SEC team until the final 4.
TjgtAg08
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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

I don't think they will juke the seed. But if in a scenario where A&M is #8… and they intentionally put us with #4 Florida, that will be telling. They will not only release which 4 are in what region but they will say who is 1-16 in what order.


Edit: NM, I see your post right above that answers my question, thanks!

I don't have a strong grasp on the bracket rules, but doesnt the #8 team (last 2 seed) get matched with the no 1 seed automatically under the bracket principles?

Why would we get paired with UF if we are #8? Would it just be an attempt to not give Auburn a 2-seed from the same conference? Seems it would be more fair to just give Auburn the "worst" 2 seed vs worrying about conference affiliation (since they already had to do it by pairing UT with Duke).

Super interesting stuff, thanks so much for breaking all this down!
bobinator
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Edit: nm I see what you're saying now, you're talking about if we're further down the seed list than #6 and get Florida anyway.
ColleyvilleAg06
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The reveal is starting now… I will watch it so you don't have to
TjgtAg08
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What channel?
ColleyvilleAg06
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CBS… don't worry the only thing you have missed is fellatiating the committee chair for how tough the job is
ColleyvilleAg06
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1- Auburn (South)

As expected

Noted that this was unanimous in the room
ColleyvilleAg06
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2 - Alabama (Midwest)

Good to see them #2, and the committee not worried about that optics.

Chair isn't committing to a bama win today would move Bama over Auburn to get the South region.
ColleyvilleAg06
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3 - Duke (East) as expected

No surprises so far.
ColleyvilleAg06
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4 - Florida

Great news to see the SEC getting 3 one seeds!
ColleyvilleAg06
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5 - Tennessee

As expected

No surprises so far.

Chair notes these were the only 5 considered for one seeds

Would send Tenn to Duke (East) … the only spot they can put them.
ColleyvilleAg06
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6 - Texas A&M

Whoop!

Put in the South region with Auburn. So they went with geography as the determining factor. That is going to be the same rationale used on selection Sunday so look for the 5th sec team to be in the south with Auburn.
ColleyvilleAg06
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7 - Purdue

Midwest with Alabama
ColleyvilleAg06
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8 Houston with Florida out west

Great to see Purdue over Houston and not an over reliance on predictive metrics
ColleyvilleAg06
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3 seeds

9 Iowa state
10 Kentucky
11 Wisconsin
12 Arizona

Dang. This morning I switched Arizona and Kansas and now I am wishing I didn't.

Very interesting that they have Wisconsin ahead of Michigan, I will have to dig into the numbers to see what may be driving that one.

Wisconsin in the south region with A&M and Auburn.
ColleyvilleAg06
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4 seeds

13 Texas Tech - south
14 Michigan
15 Kansas
16 St John's

Committee notes that they switched Michigan and St. John's (not their seed, just the geography) to balance the regions

Those just missing: Michigan State and Marquette


So I got the 16 right… switched Kansas/Arizona and Michigan/Wisconsin


ColleyvilleAg06
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South
Auburn -1
A&M- 6
Wisconsin -11
Texas Tech -13

Midwest
Alabama 2
Purdue - 7
Iowa State 9
Kansas 15


West
Florida 4
Houston 8
Kentucky 10
Michigan 14

East
Duke 3
Tennessee 5
Arizona 12
St. John's 16
ColleyvilleAg06
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Overall thoughts

1) I think I have a good idea of how this committee will evaluate things and pegged most teams exactly right

2) love seeing Texas A&M at 6 where I predicted them. They have earned 6 based on the quality of wins and it was good to see them not punished just because of metrics. As long as we can keep the numbers steady for the next month we should be able to hold a 2 seed

3) great to see the respect given to the SEC with 5 of the top 6 and 6 of the top 10 teams


4) a bit disappointed to see us in the south region with Auburn. That puts even more premium on getting to the top 4 in the sec to get Duke instead of Auburn.
Jonah2012
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Really need that Tennessee win, win the rest drop Florida and auburn. In that scenario would we pass Tennessee?
ColleyvilleAg06
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Obviously it would depend what else Tennessee did but yes in that scenario we would likely pass Tennessee and be headed to the Duke region.
bobinator
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Or behind Houston. lol
TjgtAg08
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Is the "top 4 in a conference can't be in the same region" a hard rule? If so, why is Tennessee against Duke when we are 4th in the SEC right now?

UT obviously has much better metrics and deserves it, but how and when do conference standings come into play?
ColleyvilleAg06
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bobinator said:

Or behind Houston. lol


What do you mean
ColleyvilleAg06
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Yes it is a hard rule and takes precedence over all other rules of their bracketing. If the sec has 3 one seeds, the 4th best team is headed to the Duke (or non sec region)
AggieNattie
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Houston with a 2 seed and Tech with a 4. Yes please.
TjgtAg08
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Does "4th best" mean "4th best finish in conference" or "4th best by committee ranking?"
bobinator
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If they're going to see based on geography and the goal is to avoid Auburn we either need to be ahead of Tennessee or behind Houston
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