What would it take for you to feel that we're good enough to win it all? Right now I feel that we could get hot and maybe squeeze into the Final 4. If we can win 2/3 out of @Florida vs Tennessee vs Auburn I will buy into the Natty potential. Right now I think we are Elite 8 good and could maybe sneak into the final 4 with the right match up.
Natty Expectations?
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Last: 5 days ago by Ags2013
At full health/depth, I don't think there's a team out there that we can't grind down and beat.
If we can put together two solid halves of basketball, we have final four potential.
Playing our A game, we can beat any team in the country.
Playing our B game, we can still probably get to the sweet 16.
Playing our A game, we can beat any team in the country.
Playing our B game, we can still probably get to the sweet 16.
We could lose round one. We could win it all. I don't think it's a stretch to say that
Our C game should get us to the sweet 16. We have beaten projected 5-10 seeds with our C games.
What's the last team to win the final four that didn't have a single NBA player on it? How often has a team won it without multiple NBA players?
We are a team that plays exceptionally hard, plays well together and plays to its style and strengths. But every team plays very hard in the tourney, which negates a chunk of our advantage.
Eventually we will run up against a team that plays really hard and really well together, and is well-coached, just like us, but is longer and more skilled offensively.
So the real answer as to what it would take to make me think we could win it all is a lot of chaos that takes out more talented teams before we have to play them.
Otherwise, enjoy the ride as long as it lasts. We can slug our way to the elite 8 and will need some breaks after that.
We are a team that plays exceptionally hard, plays well together and plays to its style and strengths. But every team plays very hard in the tourney, which negates a chunk of our advantage.
Eventually we will run up against a team that plays really hard and really well together, and is well-coached, just like us, but is longer and more skilled offensively.
So the real answer as to what it would take to make me think we could win it all is a lot of chaos that takes out more talented teams before we have to play them.
Otherwise, enjoy the ride as long as it lasts. We can slug our way to the elite 8 and will need some breaks after that.
Jorf said:
What would it take for you to feel that we're good enough to win it all? Right now I feel that we could get hot and maybe squeeze into the Final 4. If we can win 2/3 out of @Florida vs Tennessee vs Auburn I will buy into the Natty potential. Right now I think we are Elite 8 good and could maybe sneak into the final 4 with the right match up.
It is, for perhaps the first time ever, not zero. So, I'll ride with it as far as it goes
i think we can beat anyone. Not say we WILL, but we can if everything comes together.
that said, my BAS says we get matched up with some team in the first round that goes 39-40 from the 3 point arc and we shoot 2-48 from the FT line.
that said, my BAS says we get matched up with some team in the first round that goes 39-40 from the 3 point arc and we shoot 2-48 from the FT line.
I will say my hope that we can make a serious run at the whole thing has been lifted quite a bit in the last few games with the emergence of some independent post offense. For most of the last several years, we've been extremely reliant on one or two guards, and those guards have been heavily reliant on their ability to shoot threes.
If you get into the tournament as a 5 or worse seed the way we've been constructed, you're basically counting on two players to be really good six games in a row against teams that are either almost as good as you, as good as you, or better than you.
But now we're showing some flashes of being able to manufacture offense (not at a super high level, but at least at A level) even when Taylor and Phelps aren't on their A games. And if we can win a few more games we're looking at going into the tournament as AT least a 4 seed.
So not only does it look like our "plan B" is developing, we should catch weaker teams to start the tournament.
In Buzz's parlance for this season, we still need some lucky rolls of the dice to win the whole thing, but they're much more loaded in our favor than they've been in a very long time.
If you get into the tournament as a 5 or worse seed the way we've been constructed, you're basically counting on two players to be really good six games in a row against teams that are either almost as good as you, as good as you, or better than you.
But now we're showing some flashes of being able to manufacture offense (not at a super high level, but at least at A level) even when Taylor and Phelps aren't on their A games. And if we can win a few more games we're looking at going into the tournament as AT least a 4 seed.
So not only does it look like our "plan B" is developing, we should catch weaker teams to start the tournament.
In Buzz's parlance for this season, we still need some lucky rolls of the dice to win the whole thing, but they're much more loaded in our favor than they've been in a very long time.
This team is very good but doesn't fit the performance metrics profile of a team that is realistic to win the NCAAT.
96% of the teams that have won the natty since 2001 were top-21 in offensive efficiency ranking on Kenpom. This team is 36th right now.
91% of the teams that have won the natty since 2001 were top-31 in defensive efficiency. This team is 6th right now.
So profile is a combination of top-20 offense and top-30 defense. I think the Kemba Walker UCONN team in the 2014 tournament is the primary case of a team that didn't satisfy that criteria.
That UCONN team was 36th offense and 10th defense.
So….A&M bucking history winning six straight NCAAT games…you'd probably need the rare UCONN-like scenario where for example Wade Taylor turns into a Kemba Walker over 3 weekends. Or some other Aggie player just goes 'OFF' looking like a first round NBA pick. Kemba WAS a legit first round NBA prospect going into that tournament (ended up getting selected 9th in that draft) but Taylor while a very good college player, he isn't as talented as Kemba Walker was at putting a basketball in the basket.
So I think it is unrealistic. Don't see it. I DO think this team could realistically get to an Elite Eight which would be the farthest ever for an Aggie team and maybe even a Final Four if luck and matchups bounced the right way…but I think our flaws at shooting including at FT line will be too much to overcome for six straight games.
96% of the teams that have won the natty since 2001 were top-21 in offensive efficiency ranking on Kenpom. This team is 36th right now.
91% of the teams that have won the natty since 2001 were top-31 in defensive efficiency. This team is 6th right now.
So profile is a combination of top-20 offense and top-30 defense. I think the Kemba Walker UCONN team in the 2014 tournament is the primary case of a team that didn't satisfy that criteria.
That UCONN team was 36th offense and 10th defense.
So….A&M bucking history winning six straight NCAAT games…you'd probably need the rare UCONN-like scenario where for example Wade Taylor turns into a Kemba Walker over 3 weekends. Or some other Aggie player just goes 'OFF' looking like a first round NBA pick. Kemba WAS a legit first round NBA prospect going into that tournament (ended up getting selected 9th in that draft) but Taylor while a very good college player, he isn't as talented as Kemba Walker was at putting a basketball in the basket.
So I think it is unrealistic. Don't see it. I DO think this team could realistically get to an Elite Eight which would be the farthest ever for an Aggie team and maybe even a Final Four if luck and matchups bounced the right way…but I think our flaws at shooting including at FT line will be too much to overcome for six straight games.
We can beat anyone in the county on a neutral court. There is no team where I would say; "We can't beat them", However I don't think we can put together 6 games in a row to win it all. If we are a 2-4 seed I expect we will win comfortably in the first round, but every game after that will be a dog fight . We know we likely to play these games with razor thin margins and ultimately that likely bites you. One night the other team is going to make the shots. Hope they prove me wrong.
I love this team, their fight, and the improved scoring options. That said, we still tend to have some really low scoring stretches and untimely free throw droughts. Those can hurt even a great team.
Based on that, I'm waiting to see how we do against Auburn before getting to excited...
Based on that, I'm waiting to see how we do against Auburn before getting to excited...
Quote:
Based on that, I'm waiting to see how we do against Auburn before getting to excited...
I think Florida is the game for me. I think we're going to beat both Auburn and Tennessee at home or at least play them very close, but that's at home. If we can give Florida a good game on the road that will really make me think we've got a shot.
Florida has massacred basically everyone that's come in there except for Missouri. They beat Vandy by 11, Georgia by 30, Texas by 24, Tennessee by 30, I'm not sure how Mizzou beat them, that's one of the wilder results of the season.
I expect Florida beats us comfortably, but that won't really change my feelings on us. As you said they are doing that to just about everyone there so I wont think too negatively if that happens. But yes, if we win that game then that is a massive statement and a huge confidence booster to the guys in that lockerroom who already believe in themselves.bobinator said:Quote:
Based on that, I'm waiting to see how we do against Auburn before getting to excited...
I think Florida is the game for me. I think we're going to beat both Auburn and Tennessee at home or at least play them very close, but that's at home. If we can give Florida a good game on the road that will really make me think we've got a shot.
Florida has massacred basically everyone that's come in there except for Missouri. They beat Vandy by 11, Georgia by 30, Texas by 24, Tennessee by 30, I'm not sure how Mizzou beat them, that's one of the wilder results of the season.
Yeah, like put another way, I think the Tennessee and Auburn games can only shift my outlook downward because I expect those to be good games and honestly expect us to beat at least one of them. If we get absolutely housed on our home court then that's going to sting a bit.
Florida, and actually to some degree Mississippi State, can shift my outlook upward some.
Florida, and actually to some degree Mississippi State, can shift my outlook upward some.
Book it!
DTP02 said:
Eventually we will run up against a team that plays really hard and really well together, and is well-coached, just like us, but is longer and more skilled offensively.
Dead on. And those teams are basically Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Kentucky (to a lesser extent), etc. The truly elite teams. Baylor and Kansas in years past.
Same reason why Houston has maybe not quite lived up to expectations in the tournament under Sampson, same with Tennessee recently under Barnes relative to their season rankings and seed - insanely well coached, tough, defensive-minded by not explosive (consistently) on the offensive end.
We are the best version of a Buzz team we've been, and the results show it, and that gives me hope for a longer tournament run (Elite 8), but we are going to need some matchup help and someone to get crazy hot to make a run at the Final 4.
Jorf said:
What would it take for you to feel that we're good enough to win it all? Right now I feel that we could get hot and maybe squeeze into the Final 4. If we can win 2/3 out of @Florida vs Tennessee vs Auburn I will buy into the Natty potential. Right now I think we are Elite 8 good and could maybe sneak into the final 4 with the right match up.
March madness is such a crapshoot. Want to see the draw and then us win the opening weekend. Once that happens and our draw is good, i will allow myself to think natty possibilities.
Mizzou won by 30 points at Florida. inexplicable
When was the last time we played well in both halfs? Purdue?
When was the last time we played well in both halfs? Purdue?
I think we can beat anybody but don't think we have a shot to win it all. Not enough O and too inconsistent from the line.
It'll depend a little on timing, health, and luck. Anything can happen. But most of the fun is in the journey. Sealing the deal is just icing on the cake.
Just like baseball last season, make sure to take the time to appreciate a special group of players. Then come Madness, down a bottle of hope and enjoy the ride.
I haven't really let myself dream of a title or even a Final Four yet at this point. I've mostly been building the belief that we really can get to an Elite 8 and without doing anything really crazy to get there. Beat Florida or Auburn and all bets are off, I'll really start dreaming big.
We start hitting threes consistently and we can win the natty easy. Problem is we usually go 2 for 15….
Give me the guy who shoots for excellence and fails over the guy who shoots for mediocrity and succeeds.
Getting a high seed is paramount. As is not running into a team that can really shoot the 3.
zooguy96 said:
Getting a high seed is paramount. As is not running into a team that can really shoot the 3.
After the Mizzou win we're up to like 8-2 against top 100 3pt shooting teams with the two losses being the blown lead at Texas and Kentucky without Taylor and Kentucky shot well below their season average against us.
Obviously in any one single game a team can get hot and you lose but we've been extremely good against teams that shoot threes well overall.
Manny/Wade/Solo playing like last March, Coleman playing like last Nov, Phelps and Payne to just hold serve
And you are not wrong. Though I see no way in hell we lose round one as a 3-4 seed. If we come out like we did in the first half vs GA we definitely could.AggieCrew44 said:
We could lose round one. We could win it all. I don't think it's a stretch to say that
I don't really have any expectations at this point other than to say I think it's possible for this team to beat anyone on any given day. As Bobinator pointed out the emergence of alternate sources of point production other than the guards is a very positive development. I still doubt we can beat complete teams without IV being on top of his game tho.
I'll also say I feel like bracket draws and how refs call games are important for our roster and style of play to be successful.
I'll also say I feel like bracket draws and how refs call games are important for our roster and style of play to be successful.
And to think, before the season started you could hear a pin drop in here… and now we are talking about nattys?
Jorf
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its high time we get one of those baylor type draws where we dont face a single digit seed until the elite 8
Quote:
I'll also say I feel like bracket draws and how refs call games are important for our roster and style of play to be successful
I feel the same way
Get done favorable draws where an upset or two happen along our path and this team can go far
In my infinite wisdom, I think were just trolling teams. I think there's a level that we have only seen glimpses of that will show up in the tournament.
Serious Lee said:
its high time we get one of those baylor type draws where we dont face a single digit seed until the elite 8
We will get UConn or Baylor in the second round
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