Only way I could see the Sunday game mattering is you'd need all of these:

• The game makes a seed line difference (like on the edge of 1/2)
• The other team is our direct competition for that spot (say it's Florida or Tennessee)
• There's no major downstream ramifications of switching the two teams on the bracket

By that third one, I mean that it doesn't change where everyone else is going if you flip the two teams. If it does, that's probably too complicated and the committee would say screw it.

Otherwise, it's been pretty clear that the last day of the conference tournaments doesn't really matter. In 2016 we lost to Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game and we were close on the seed lines going in and still ended up seeded ahead of them, for example.

Go in with the baseline expectation that absolutely nothing that happens during the conference tournaments matter. They are essentially viewed as exhibitions by the committee and they have shown they do not value these games at all. That goes for all games Tuesday-Sunday.

The only thing that matters is if a team steals a bid by getting an automatic they will make adjustments. Until I see evidence that a team moves up or down the seed list based on the conference tournament the games do not matter. At all.

I don't know how you're ever going to have any evidence of this, but I still think the early round games can matter.

But that's also why I think conferences are hurting themselves by backloading these brackets. The leagues should want their bubble teams playing meaningful games on Thursday and Friday. These complicated brackets can make it hard for bubble teams to play against teams that might actually move the needle.

bobinator said:

---

I don't know how you're ever going to have any evidence of this, but I still think the early round games can matter.

But that's also why I think conferences are hurting themselves by backloading these brackets. The leagues should want their bubble teams playing meaningful games on Thursday and Friday. These complicated brackets can make it hard for bubble teams to play against teams that might actually move the needle.

---

The NCAA publishes their seed lists (a true 1-68 ranked in order), the evidence i would be looking for is any indication at all that a team was punished for going 0-1 or that a team made a move up by going on a run.

2022 A&M would have been an example of a team that on Selection Sunday by the numbers should have been an at large. Even amongst teams that made it, looking at where they were seeded it appeared clear that their work during the conference tournaments were not a factor in their seeding. There have been plenty of examples of a team that was a consensus 10 seed coming into the conference tournament, winning 3-4 marquee games...and then being a 10 seed on selection Sunday.

Gone are the days of Jerry Mcnamara leading Syracuse from Bubble status to a 5 seed by making a miracle run.

Problem is we don't have the seed list going in. Someone might be a consensus 6 by internet bracketologists but that doesn't mean anything because we don't know where the committee would actually have them.

I do agree with the general idea that the tournaments aren't going to make a big difference. If you're not already under consideration you're probably toast, losses aren't going to hurt you any, etc.

But I don't agree that they're just completely meaningless.

Don't they publish the top 16 seeds here pretty soon. I remember them doing that last year.

Emilio Fantastico said:

---

I am curious if we manage to play ourselves into position to be on the border between a 1 and 2 seed and we made it to the SECT finals, if the fact that the Finals is not until Sunday and the committee has already more or less set the field, would we get screwed out of a 1 seed even if we win the SECT?

I guess the real question is, does the committee count the conference tourney very much or at all to where winning it would push a borderline 1 seed into a 1 seed or would they still leave them at the 2 seed.

I'm guessing that the answer is that it depends on what the committee is pushing and who the team involved is.

---

I've seen teams lose in the first round of their conference tourney and still get a 1 seed

Don't think the conf tourney's matter much for the higher seeds. They don't seem to matter much at all these days, but I have seen in the past where they matter for bubble teams.

The problem with A&M a few years ago was that we weren't even really on the bubble going into the sect, so the committee didn't pay attention to us

They've been doing it the last few years.

It comes out Saturday.

This Saturday, CBS Sports & TNT Sports unveil the current top 16 seeds for the NCAA Men's Tournament at 12:30 PM on CBS.

Committee Chair Bubba Cunningham joins Adam, Clark, Jay and Seth in studio.

Coverage continues at 1 PM on CBS Sports Network as Jerry Palm joins the show. pic.twitter.com/FXyoa4l5vi

— March Madness Men’s Basketball TV (@MM_MBB_TV) February 12, 2025

Ole Miss and Kentucky go down creating some separation in the SEC standings.

It will most likely be A&M, Tennessee, and Mizzou competing for the fourth double bye spot.

ExtremeRush said:

---

Ole Miss and Kentucky go down creating some separation in the SEC standings.

It will most likely be A&M, Tennessee, and Mizzou competing for the fourth double bye spot.

---

Think you better throw Alabama in there. They are far from a lock of being Top 3.

MarcAg said:

---

ExtremeRush said:

---

Ole Miss and Kentucky go down creating some separation in the SEC standings.

It will most likely be A&M, Tennessee, and Mizzou competing for the fourth double bye spot.

---

Think you better throw Alabama in there. They are far from a lock of being Top 3.

---

They do have a tough final stretch. I suppose we should say it's Bama, Florida, us, Tenn, and Mizzou competing for the three double byes.

I predict this finish in SEC play for the top 9:

1. Auburn 16-2
2. Alabama 13-5
3. Florida 13-5
4. Texas A&M 12-6
5. Tennessee 12-6
6. Missouri 11-7
7. Ole Miss 10-8
8. Kentucky 10-8
9. Mississippi St 9-9

So if those records hold true, then a head-to-head tiebreaker happens Saturday, Feb. 22 in College Station vs. Tennessee for the double bye.

rlb28 said:

---

I predict this finish in SEC play for the top 9:

1. Auburn 16-2
2. Alabama 13-5
3. Florida 13-5
4. Texas A&M 12-6
5. Tennessee 12-6
6. Missouri 11-7
7. Ole Miss 10-8
8. Kentucky 10-8
9. Mississippi St 9-9

So if those records hold true, then a head-to-head tiebreaker happens Saturday, Feb. 22 in College Station vs. Tennessee for the double bye.

---

Yep, this Saturday is a HUGE game for us. Looking at others, Mizzou is the team to watch that could throw a wrench into those standings. They finish with -

Bama
@Arky
USC
@Vandy
@OU
Kentucky.

If they split this week against Bama and @Arky, I could see them winning out after that, or maybe just losing once more. But we'd still have the tiebreaker over them if they get to 12-6.

Here are the teams that have a realistic shot at the double bye. Bolded teams are at worst bubble teams in the tournament

Auburn's remaining schedule

Arkansas
Georgia
Ole mIss
@ Kentucky
@ Texas A&M
Alabama

Alabama's remaining schedule

@ Missouri
Kentucky
Mississippi State
@ Tennessee
Florida
@ Auburn

Florida's remaining schedule

Oklahoma
@ LSU
@ Georgia
Texas A&M
@ Alabama
Ole Miss

Texas A&M's remaining schedule

@ Mississippi State
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
@ Florida
Auburn
@ LSU

Missouri's remaining schedule

Alabama
@ Arkansas
South Carolina
@ Vanderbilt
@ Oklahoma
Kentucky

Tennessee's remaining schedule

@ Texas A&M
@ LSU
Alabama
@ Ole Miss
South Carolina

Ole Miss's remaining schedule

@ Vanderbilt
@ Auburn
Oklahoma
Tennessee
@ Florida

That Alabama schedule is rough. Ours and Auburn's is as well. Ole Miss gonna be lucky to go 2-3 in their final 5.

Woah Alabama's schedule is insane. And that's immediately on the heels of playing Auburn. I would think that's got to be the most difficult 7 game stretch in the history of college basketball?

A projected 1 seed who's the underdog (according to Torvik) in 3 of their remaining 6 games. 4 of their last 7 including Saturday's game against Auburn. LOL