Maybe you've been in a coma, maybe you've been combing through the transfer portal looking for wide receivers, I'm not here to judge where you've been, but you're here now and you bought tickets for the Texas game last month and you're realizing you don't know anything about this year's team. By popular demand (roughly three people on another thread) I'm here to help. Here's a brief mid-season rundown, Q&A style:
So, big question first, just yes or no, are we good?
Yes!
Okay I said just yes or no, that's on me, you can say more than that:
So not only do the humans think we're good (#12 in the AP poll), but so do the nerds and their efficiency rankings. We're currently #13 in KenPom, and #20 in Torvik and the NET.
Nice! Why are we good?
Two main reasons. One of them is the same as last year - we rebound our own misses at an absolutely incredible rate. We are once again the nation's #1 offensive rebounding team, and it's not even close. At 45.4%, we lead the second-best team (Milwaukee) by 3.5%, that's the same gap as Milwaukee has to the #14 team.
The second is that our defense has been elite so far this season. By KenPom we have the 6th best defense in the country.
Wow really? Last year our defense was fine, but not elite, what's been the big difference?
The biggest difference is that Zhuric Phelps is a much better defender than Boots was. We also have good front court depth so our switching defense really starts to wear people down, especially mentally, as games go on. Solomon Washington has also progressed quite a bit defensively and our defense really allows him to maximize his athletic ability and guard a big chunk of the floor. Add in Pharrel Payne's athleticism and the numbers are impressive.
We're turning teams over on 5% more of their possessions than last season, we're #15 in blocks, #17 in effective FG%, and while teams still shoot a lot of threes against us, we're #29 in defensive three-point percentage with teams shooting just 28.8% from three against us.
What about offense?
Our offense runs mostly on vibes and rebounds. We turn it over too much and we can't shoot. Though "can't shoot" is relative. Last year we were one of the very worst shooting teams in the country, this year we're more what you might call "mid-bad" at #225 in 3pt% and #221 in 2pt%. Progress!
Is anything good on offense?
Well, for all the calls for Wade Taylor to become a more efficient player, there hasn't been much congratulating him on actually doing it so far. He's never going to real efficient, but his assist numbers are way up and his shooting numbers are better. His turnover rate is about the same, but it's better than Phelps' and Manny Obaseki's.
Speaking of Taylor, we're on record watch for Taylor. He's closing in on the school record for points and will likely become the first Aggie to ever eclipse 2,000 career points. The back half of this season is obviously legacy time for Taylor. Does he go down as one of the best players in school history, or does he make a run at GOAT status if he can push us to a postseason run?
What's the top thing that could keep us from being really good?
It's our turnovers. Our offense is basically a money-ball-esque approach built around the idea that we know we can't shoot, so we need to get up a lot more shots. If I had to sum up our offensive philosophy in just a handful of words, it's these: any shot is better than a turnover
The problem is that, so far this year, we're ALSO turning the ball over. Last year we had a much better offensive efficiency despite shooting the ball even worse than this year because we didn't turn it over. We were top 20 in the country in turnover % at just 14.1% of our possessions. This year that number is at 19%, ranking 261st. That's got to come down in SEC play if we're going to contend with the elite teams.
The other thing is that we're still very thin in the backcourt. Manny's play from late last year hasn't carried over into this season, so when Phelps or Taylor are playing poorly, there's usually not much we can do about it. Just mostly have to hope they find it.
Anyone deserve a special shoutout for their non-con play?
Amazing that you, a real person, asked this question so I could talk about Henry Coleman for a second. He's been a really good player for a long time now and it feels like he's under appreciated because people wanted him to become elite or something.
Coleman isn't the flashiest guy around and he doesn't have a cool nickname like the Dominican Rodman, but he's just a solid player going out there playing 20 minutes and getting us 9 points and 5 boards a game. He's carried us in some big moments this non-conference stretch, and like a lot of us said last year, he's especially good when Payne is playing well.
Okay so we're good, who else is good in the SEC? If we're #12 we've got to have a good chance at the SEC title no?
…
What? This is SEC basketball, how good can it be? Oh no, you're making a face…
Yeah… So this year's SEC is not only the best the SEC has ever been, it's in the conversation as the best any conference has ever been.
I'd break the teams down like this:
Elite and tested: Auburn (KenPom #1), Alabama (#9)
Probably elite, but mostly untested: Tennessee (#4), Florida (#6)
Very good and kinda tested: Kentucky (#22), Mississippi State (#23)
Probably good, but untested: Ole Miss (#32), Texas (#34), Arkansas (#39), Oklahoma (#40)
Probably just fine, but also not tested: Georgia (#47), Vandy (#50), Missouri (#55), LSU (#56), South Carolina (#64)
South Carolina at #64 is the lowest ranked team in the league, last year #64 would have put you in the middle of the pack, and that was with just 16 teams.
So what's our NCAA Tournament outlook at this point?
Greatly oversimplified, I think we're in the field as long as we go 7-11 or better in league play. I think 9-9 probably gets us a 6-7 seed or so, and then basically you improve a seed line for every win over that. So say we go 11-7 in league play, I think you're looking at a 4-5 seed. Now again, that's really oversimplified, but that's how good the SEC is this year.
What new guys do I need to know?
Zhuric Phelps (SMU): Phelps is something of an enigmatic player. You don't really want a point guard that shoots 41% from the field and 27% from 3 with a 24% turnover rate, and yet, it's hard to argue that the team is just better when Phelps is on the floor. A big reason why is his defense. Phelps is among the national leaders in steal percentage. The other big reason why is he frees up Wade Taylor more than any player than Taylor has played with. Phelps bringing his turnovers down might be the single biggest factor in whether this team is going to just be good or be very good.
Pharrel Payne (Minnesota): Hasn't put it together consistently the way we hoped, but has definitely shown some impressive flashes on both ends and carried us in some big spots. He's the only guy on the team that we really try to post up in the traditional sense. Our lob game is something of an ongoing adventure but he's completed a few lately and I think that's something we're going to continue to see work, especially with him and Phelps. Huge huge upside for Payne, just needs consistency on both ends.
CJ Wilcher (Nebraska): Wilcher is exactly who we thought he'd be, though he got off to a slow start. He's our best three point shooter at 39% and he's gotten better the last few games at getting shots up. In SEC play he's likely to be a defensive liability a lot of the time, so when he's on the floor, he has to be scoring.
Okay bobinator, this is all nice research but anyone could have done this, give me a few hot takes for the back half of the season:
- I think Texas misses the NCAA Tournament after an absolutely brutal start to conference play. They come to Reed Arena, then host Auburn and Tennessee, then go to Oklahoma and Florida. I'll honestly be surprised if they win any of those games, and they're probably going to get throat punched a couple of times.
- I'm not confident enough to say that we're really going to compete for the SEC title because I still think our shooting is going to lose us some games, but as SEC schedules go we do have a pretty favorable one so if the ball bounces our way a few times I think we might have a shot. Of the top five teams in the league, (Auburn, Tenn, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky) we only play them all once and three of them are at home. Each of those teams plays at least one of the other ones twice. (Auburn and Alabama, Tennessee and Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky, Alabama and Kentucky)
- I think Taylor breaks King's record while leading us to a win over #1 Tennessee on February 22nd.
So, big question first, just yes or no, are we good?
Yes!
Okay I said just yes or no, that's on me, you can say more than that:
So not only do the humans think we're good (#12 in the AP poll), but so do the nerds and their efficiency rankings. We're currently #13 in KenPom, and #20 in Torvik and the NET.
Nice! Why are we good?
Two main reasons. One of them is the same as last year - we rebound our own misses at an absolutely incredible rate. We are once again the nation's #1 offensive rebounding team, and it's not even close. At 45.4%, we lead the second-best team (Milwaukee) by 3.5%, that's the same gap as Milwaukee has to the #14 team.
The second is that our defense has been elite so far this season. By KenPom we have the 6th best defense in the country.
Wow really? Last year our defense was fine, but not elite, what's been the big difference?
The biggest difference is that Zhuric Phelps is a much better defender than Boots was. We also have good front court depth so our switching defense really starts to wear people down, especially mentally, as games go on. Solomon Washington has also progressed quite a bit defensively and our defense really allows him to maximize his athletic ability and guard a big chunk of the floor. Add in Pharrel Payne's athleticism and the numbers are impressive.
We're turning teams over on 5% more of their possessions than last season, we're #15 in blocks, #17 in effective FG%, and while teams still shoot a lot of threes against us, we're #29 in defensive three-point percentage with teams shooting just 28.8% from three against us.
What about offense?
Our offense runs mostly on vibes and rebounds. We turn it over too much and we can't shoot. Though "can't shoot" is relative. Last year we were one of the very worst shooting teams in the country, this year we're more what you might call "mid-bad" at #225 in 3pt% and #221 in 2pt%. Progress!
Is anything good on offense?
Well, for all the calls for Wade Taylor to become a more efficient player, there hasn't been much congratulating him on actually doing it so far. He's never going to real efficient, but his assist numbers are way up and his shooting numbers are better. His turnover rate is about the same, but it's better than Phelps' and Manny Obaseki's.
Speaking of Taylor, we're on record watch for Taylor. He's closing in on the school record for points and will likely become the first Aggie to ever eclipse 2,000 career points. The back half of this season is obviously legacy time for Taylor. Does he go down as one of the best players in school history, or does he make a run at GOAT status if he can push us to a postseason run?
What's the top thing that could keep us from being really good?
It's our turnovers. Our offense is basically a money-ball-esque approach built around the idea that we know we can't shoot, so we need to get up a lot more shots. If I had to sum up our offensive philosophy in just a handful of words, it's these: any shot is better than a turnover
The problem is that, so far this year, we're ALSO turning the ball over. Last year we had a much better offensive efficiency despite shooting the ball even worse than this year because we didn't turn it over. We were top 20 in the country in turnover % at just 14.1% of our possessions. This year that number is at 19%, ranking 261st. That's got to come down in SEC play if we're going to contend with the elite teams.
The other thing is that we're still very thin in the backcourt. Manny's play from late last year hasn't carried over into this season, so when Phelps or Taylor are playing poorly, there's usually not much we can do about it. Just mostly have to hope they find it.
Anyone deserve a special shoutout for their non-con play?
Amazing that you, a real person, asked this question so I could talk about Henry Coleman for a second. He's been a really good player for a long time now and it feels like he's under appreciated because people wanted him to become elite or something.
Coleman isn't the flashiest guy around and he doesn't have a cool nickname like the Dominican Rodman, but he's just a solid player going out there playing 20 minutes and getting us 9 points and 5 boards a game. He's carried us in some big moments this non-conference stretch, and like a lot of us said last year, he's especially good when Payne is playing well.
Okay so we're good, who else is good in the SEC? If we're #12 we've got to have a good chance at the SEC title no?
…
What? This is SEC basketball, how good can it be? Oh no, you're making a face…
Yeah… So this year's SEC is not only the best the SEC has ever been, it's in the conversation as the best any conference has ever been.
I'd break the teams down like this:
Elite and tested: Auburn (KenPom #1), Alabama (#9)
Probably elite, but mostly untested: Tennessee (#4), Florida (#6)
Very good and kinda tested: Kentucky (#22), Mississippi State (#23)
Probably good, but untested: Ole Miss (#32), Texas (#34), Arkansas (#39), Oklahoma (#40)
Probably just fine, but also not tested: Georgia (#47), Vandy (#50), Missouri (#55), LSU (#56), South Carolina (#64)
South Carolina at #64 is the lowest ranked team in the league, last year #64 would have put you in the middle of the pack, and that was with just 16 teams.
So what's our NCAA Tournament outlook at this point?
Greatly oversimplified, I think we're in the field as long as we go 7-11 or better in league play. I think 9-9 probably gets us a 6-7 seed or so, and then basically you improve a seed line for every win over that. So say we go 11-7 in league play, I think you're looking at a 4-5 seed. Now again, that's really oversimplified, but that's how good the SEC is this year.
What new guys do I need to know?
Zhuric Phelps (SMU): Phelps is something of an enigmatic player. You don't really want a point guard that shoots 41% from the field and 27% from 3 with a 24% turnover rate, and yet, it's hard to argue that the team is just better when Phelps is on the floor. A big reason why is his defense. Phelps is among the national leaders in steal percentage. The other big reason why is he frees up Wade Taylor more than any player than Taylor has played with. Phelps bringing his turnovers down might be the single biggest factor in whether this team is going to just be good or be very good.
Pharrel Payne (Minnesota): Hasn't put it together consistently the way we hoped, but has definitely shown some impressive flashes on both ends and carried us in some big spots. He's the only guy on the team that we really try to post up in the traditional sense. Our lob game is something of an ongoing adventure but he's completed a few lately and I think that's something we're going to continue to see work, especially with him and Phelps. Huge huge upside for Payne, just needs consistency on both ends.
CJ Wilcher (Nebraska): Wilcher is exactly who we thought he'd be, though he got off to a slow start. He's our best three point shooter at 39% and he's gotten better the last few games at getting shots up. In SEC play he's likely to be a defensive liability a lot of the time, so when he's on the floor, he has to be scoring.
Okay bobinator, this is all nice research but anyone could have done this, give me a few hot takes for the back half of the season:
- I think Texas misses the NCAA Tournament after an absolutely brutal start to conference play. They come to Reed Arena, then host Auburn and Tennessee, then go to Oklahoma and Florida. I'll honestly be surprised if they win any of those games, and they're probably going to get throat punched a couple of times.
- I'm not confident enough to say that we're really going to compete for the SEC title because I still think our shooting is going to lose us some games, but as SEC schedules go we do have a pretty favorable one so if the ball bounces our way a few times I think we might have a shot. Of the top five teams in the league, (Auburn, Tenn, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky) we only play them all once and three of them are at home. Each of those teams plays at least one of the other ones twice. (Auburn and Alabama, Tennessee and Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky, Alabama and Kentucky)
- I think Taylor breaks King's record while leading us to a win over #1 Tennessee on February 22nd.