Had a little bit of time and decided to do some quick research here.
Our shooting percentage as a team inside the arc is not good at 48% (#255 in the country). Meaning that our expected shot value of a 2 pt shot is slightly less than 1 point at .96 points.
Now, that percentage goes up if one of our bigs takes the shot. Coleman, Payne, Garcia and Washington are a combined 57.5% from two. Meaning a two point shot by one of them has an expected value of 1.15 points.
But we're an equal opportunity bad shooting team. We're also terrible from outside the arc, where we shoot a combined 30% (#283). As a team our expected shot value of a three point shot is .9 points.
But Wade Taylor shoots better than almost everyone else at 35.4%, making the expected value of a three point shot by Taylor 1.06 points. But crucially, digging through the box scores, we also rebound Taylor's misses at a high rate (41.1%, which is in line with the percentage at which we rebound all shots 43.3%).
When Taylor shoots a 3, there's a 62% chance he's either going to make it, or that we're going to get the ball back. And if we do get it back, it's likely that it's one of our bigs that gets it with a chance to score, which our highest value shot.
Crucially, if you were going to go (even more?) all in on this idea, Taylor needs to dial back how often he shoots it in transition with nobody under the basket. It isn't all that often, but it's at least once a game or so. The value of a Taylor three goes down dramatically if we have no chance of rebounding it.
But what say y'all? There's a lot of talk of "hero ball" from Wade during games, but I think it's a fairly straightforward case that, provided we have rebounders under the basket, Wade should fire away when we're on offense.
Our shooting percentage as a team inside the arc is not good at 48% (#255 in the country). Meaning that our expected shot value of a 2 pt shot is slightly less than 1 point at .96 points.
Now, that percentage goes up if one of our bigs takes the shot. Coleman, Payne, Garcia and Washington are a combined 57.5% from two. Meaning a two point shot by one of them has an expected value of 1.15 points.
But we're an equal opportunity bad shooting team. We're also terrible from outside the arc, where we shoot a combined 30% (#283). As a team our expected shot value of a three point shot is .9 points.
But Wade Taylor shoots better than almost everyone else at 35.4%, making the expected value of a three point shot by Taylor 1.06 points. But crucially, digging through the box scores, we also rebound Taylor's misses at a high rate (41.1%, which is in line with the percentage at which we rebound all shots 43.3%).
When Taylor shoots a 3, there's a 62% chance he's either going to make it, or that we're going to get the ball back. And if we do get it back, it's likely that it's one of our bigs that gets it with a chance to score, which our highest value shot.
Crucially, if you were going to go (even more?) all in on this idea, Taylor needs to dial back how often he shoots it in transition with nobody under the basket. It isn't all that often, but it's at least once a game or so. The value of a Taylor three goes down dramatically if we have no chance of rebounding it.
But what say y'all? There's a lot of talk of "hero ball" from Wade during games, but I think it's a fairly straightforward case that, provided we have rebounders under the basket, Wade should fire away when we're on offense.
