We Can Win

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EXCELL
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12:36p, 1/14/19
FYI ... latest SEC KenPom ratings

Alabama ...65
Arkansas ...55
Auburn ...11
Florida ...24
Georgia ...89
Kentucky ...13
LSU ...37
Mississippi ...30
Mississippi St ...28
Missouri ...92
S Carolina ...102
Tennessee ...5
Vanderbilt ...85

Texas A&M ...86

Georgia has one ugly loss to Georgia State.
Half their losses have been to ranked teams; they've played 4. One of those was a 2pt loss.

We have one ugly loss to Texas Southern.
We've played 2 ranked teams and lost both. Neither of ours were close.

While these are no predictors of single game results, they show we could and should be competitive against Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. It also shows that we are well separated from the upper half of the SEC.

I'm still sticking with 4 wins. I don't think 2 is likely and I don't think 6 is likely. But I don't think anything in that range from 2-6 is unlikely either. Obviously as you get to the edges of the range, the likelihood of that result diminishes.
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GE
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In reply to EXCELL • 12:41p, 1/14/19
AG
EXCELL said:
FYI ... latest SEC KenPom ratings

Alabama ...65
Auburn ...11
Florida ...24
Georgia ...89
Kentucky ...13
LSU ...37
Mississippi ...30
Mississippi St ...28
Missouri ...92
S Carolina ...102
Vanderbilt ...85

Texas A&M ...86
Looks about right. 10 or 11 out of 14.

Did you mean to leave Arkansas and Tennessee off?
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to Aston04 • 12:41p, 1/14/19
AG

Quote:
It is interesting over on the bama board- they are banging the drum for him to go.
They seemed to start grumbling a bit when Bama needed that buzzer-beating shot by Sexton in the SECT vs A&M last season to get into the NCAAT (had Bama lost that game, it looked like that may have been it for their bubble chances). Anyways, I think their expectations for last season's team were higher than what actually happened (b/c of having Collin Sexton, etc.), so now it is getting easier for the pot bangers to come out after losses like Saturday.
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In reply to mhayden • 12:46p, 1/14/19
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free_mhayden said:
I appreciate the psycho-analysis Hop, but you've shown time and time again that you are unable to remember which posters posted what and lump anyone "anti-Kennedy" into the same group, so it's rather useless.

Yes there plenty of bright spots -- we've got enough talent on the team that rarely will you find a game devoid of anything positive.

Yes, if we play within our strengths (posts) and don't turn the ball over a ton we can win against teams like Alabama.

The problem is Alabama is looking like the 9th or 10th best team out of the other 13 teams in the conference (wht Arkansas being about the same)... So if it takes a buzzer-beater after playing well to take down one of the lesser teams in the conference then I'm not sure that's necessarily that bright of a spot.

A win is always better than a loss, but right now I'd say the win means less in regards to how high this team can climb in conference play (it's still a 4-5 win team) and more to give some of those guys out there working hard a bright spot for their work.

If we win 2 out of our next 3 I'll be singing a different tune, but I just don't see it.


And I'm not going to sing a different tune. This roster is what it is, and it doesn't meet where we need to be. But I can separate my long-term thoughts and objective observations from being a game-time fan hoping for a win. I can objectively look at what I saw and give credit where credit is due, and give criticism when it is warranted.

And I addressed you because you trivialized the win focusing on the lucky shot than the other positives that put A&M in position to make that last shot for the road win.
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In reply to GE • 12:48p, 1/14/19
No. Fixed it.
Thanks
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Hop
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In reply to _lefraud_ • 12:51p, 1/14/19
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_lefraud_ said:
Hop said:
free_mhayden said:
It amazes me how some people can take a singular win (a buzzer-beater at that) and come out with a whole different outlook on a team.

Yeah, Alabama took down an inconsistent Kentucky team.... They also lost to UCF, Georgia State, Northeastern and got handled by LSU fairly easily.

Unless Starks significantly improves his play, this is still a 4-5 win conference team at best.

The A&M staff certainly outcoached the Alabama staff on Saturday. I say that because over the years a lot of posters here were banging the drum wanting Avery Johnson.
Would you swap Kennedy for Avery if given the opportunity?


I wouldn't take either. Avery has a lot more talent and he isn't doing much with it.
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EXCELL
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1:04p, 1/14/19
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Quote:
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Our plan was to kick it out to someone with 3 seconds left inbounding under our own basket?
I didn't know that the plan BK drew up was to kick it out after an inbound from under our own basket. That's more unlikely than the running, from-downtown 3. In fact, it's essentially impossible.

So we OVERCAME a really bad coaching plan with a heroic shot ...
So, Hop, you can scratch that winning play off the BK positive list. He drew up an impossible play given the time on the clock and the location of the inbounds pass.
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In reply to EXCELL • 1:04p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
You can't take isolated games and apply them to a dozen conference games.
If so, you'd need to just thrown in the towel after Cal-Irvine and Texas Southern, and then we should have beaten Arkansas too.

I can't believe somebody who has been around as long as you have has fallen into the "they beat XYZ" or "they lost to "LMN".


I know this means nothing to you because you'll find a path back to 3-15, but I watched Missouri-USCe yesterday and that was a very pedestrian game with pretty average athletes with the exception of Silva.

A&M plays those teams four times. Assume a 2-2 record there. They still have Vandy at home. Georgia at home. Alabama at home. A&M will be favored in those games. That's six.

I'll gladly wager a wing dinner on A&M winning more than four SEC games.
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In reply to Hop • 1:05p, 1/14/19
Quote:
Avery has a lot more talent and he isn't doing much with it.
He beat Kentucky and he lost a heartbreaker to us on a miracle running 3 from way outside the arc.

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EXCELL
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In reply to Hop • 1:09p, 1/14/19
You can't afford it ... I can eat my own weight in wings.
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1:10p, 1/14/19
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I watched Missouri-USCe yesterday and that was a very pedestrian game with pretty average athletes with the exception of Silva
Yep ... with a deep analysis like that I can understand your optimism.
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In reply to EXCELL • 1:11p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Our plan was to kick it out to someone with 3 seconds left inbounding under our own basket?
I didn't know that the plan BK drew up was to kick it out after an inbound from under our own basket. That's more unlikely than the running, from-downtown 3. In fact, it's essentially impossible.

So we OVERCAME a really bad coaching plan with a heroic shot ...
So, Hop, you can scratch that winning play off the BK positive list. He drew up an impossible play given the time on the clock and the location of the inbounds pass.


I hate when whiners do this in basketball. Most "last plays" have a lot of improvisation to it. The plan was for Starks to cut underneath his defender and run upcourt while the pass was thrown to him so he'd have a head of steam when he got the ball. I assume had that been done, the plan was to drive to the basket because Starks has shown he can go coast to coast in 3 seconds.

But, the defender met him and undercut Starks to block that pass, so the passer had to throw it over the top.

That clearly was not the play called on the bench, but as usual the facts won't keep you from your schtick.
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mhayden
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1:14p, 1/14/19
I think he's referencing the comment another poster made where the plan was to "kick it out to Mahan for 3".
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EXCELL
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1:15p, 1/14/19
Show me where I said 1-17 was going to happen? Or 2-16 was going to happen?
I said 2 wins was "possible", ... not likely.
I also clearly restated my prediction of 4 wins.

Are you off your meds?
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EXCELL
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1:17p, 1/14/19
So, Hop, you're stating that the play call was not to kick it out to Mahan?
That that scenario is a figment of the player's imagination?

Maybe he just wasn't paying close attention in the huddle.

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EXCELL
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1:21p, 1/14/19
So it appears several key posts have disappeared from the thread.
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1:26p, 1/14/19
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FTR, this was posted in the game thread

Quote:
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5:40p, 1/12/19

AG

SIAP but did anybody see BK in the post-game saying the play was designed to go to Mayhan in the corner? You can see Kennedy just standing there pointing to the right the whole time as TJ is flying up the floor.

Starks said no sir I got this. Question is did he call glass? Solid win.

I didn't hear the post game interview and I couldn't find it online.
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In reply to EXCELL • 1:29p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
Quote:
Avery has a lot more talent and he isn't doing much with it.
He beat Kentucky and he lost a heartbreaker to us on a miracle running 3 from way outside the arc.



He's in year four and his career SEC record is three games below .500. And he has had talent.
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EXCELL
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1:30p, 1/14/19
How's that match up with BK in his first 4 years?

Kindly disregard the years prior where A&M was in the tourney every year and Bama wasn't sure they even played basketball. We will assume they both started from two programs in exactly the same condition when they came onboard.
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In reply to EXCELL • 1:33p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
Show me where I said 1-17 was going to happen? Or 2-16 was going to happen?
I said 2 wins was "possible", ... not likely.
I also clearly restated my prediction of 4 wins.

Are you off your meds?


And my proposition was four wins. Are you on your meds?
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EXCELL
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1:35p, 1/14/19
Another disappearing post ???

Fake news.
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In reply to EXCELL • 1:35p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
How's that match up with BK in his first 4 years?

Kindly disregard the years prior where A&M was in the tourney every year and Bama wasn't sure they even played basketball. We will assume they both started from two programs in exactly the same condition when they came onboard.


Kennedy's record is five games over .500 in the same time period as when Avery has been in the league, which is the most valid comparison.
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In reply to EXCELL • 1:40p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
Another disappearing post ???

Fake news.


Oh, so that's your out? I haven't touched a post on this thread today. And I have never removed a legitimate discussion post on any topic. The only posts I personally remove are personal attacks on a player or coach, and excessive whining and temper tantrums that interrupt my post-game discussions threads on premium.
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1:41p, 1/14/19
Quote:
Kennedy's record is five games over .500 in the same time period as when Avery has been in the league, which is the most valid comparison.
OK. So you're really stating that a coach in his 7th year with a program that had a string of tourney appearances is the same start as a coach in his 4th year at a program that wasn't sure it even had a basketball program?

I think I'm back to you being off your meds if you think that's a legitimate comparison. It's convenient, but like comparing the first flight of the Wright Brothers Kittyhawk Flyer to the Lockheed P-80. They're both airplanes. Both were firsts. Kind of different starting points though, don't you think?
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In reply to Hop • 1:42p, 1/14/19
Well, somebody did.
The kick out to Mahan post vanished.

Now this.

Oh ... wait ...
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In reply to EXCELL • 1:47p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
So, Hop, you're stating that the play call was not to kick it out to Mahan?
That that scenario is a figment of the player's imagination?

Maybe he just wasn't paying close attention in the huddle.



I didn't read that post. I was assuming the comment was in regard to the lob pass over Starks head that resulted in the off-balance 3-point shot.

Had the in-bounds pass been executed as planned, I think there would have been time for either Starks taking it coast-to-coast or a quick pass to an open Mahan who has a very quick release.

Either way, I stick to my original point. To judge any coach on a last play that must go full court in 3 seconds is pretty useless and irrelevant because 80% of those plays don't play out as it was planned in the huddle.
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In reply to EXCELL • 1:53p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
Well, somebody did.
The kick out to Mahan post vanished.

Now this.

Oh ... wait ...


I just looked and no posts have been deleted from this thread. I see the "kick out to Mahan" post above. I certainly don't need to delete posts for this discussion. Come on back down to reality my man.
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mhayden
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In reply to Hop • 2:00p, 1/14/19
Hop said:
EXCELL said:
So, Hop, you're stating that the play call was not to kick it out to Mahan?
That that scenario is a figment of the player's imagination?

Maybe he just wasn't paying close attention in the huddle.



I didn't read that post. I was assuming the comment was in regard to the lob pass over Starks head that resulted in the off-balance 3-point shot.

Had the in-bounds pass been executed as planned, I think there would have been time for either Starks taking it coast-to-coast or a quick pass to an open Mahan who has a very quick release.

Either way, I stick to my original point. To judge any coach on a last play that must go full court in 3 seconds is pretty useless and irrelevant because 80% of those plays don't play out as it was planned in the huddle.


Hop from less than a month ago:

Quote:
free_mhayden said:

So with 4 seconds, 60 feet away, you don't think a team can get a shot off from under 30 feet?

Quote:
Hop said:
No. He was running full speed to get the ball that was bouncing away from his basket. It would have taken a couple of seconds to secure the ball and reverse his direction. As the other poster mentioned, they were in scramble mode and Tinkle wouldn't have time to locate a teammate and throw it 30 feet down the court.


4 seconds = not enough time to move the ball 30 feet.

3.4 seconds = enough time to take it coast-to-coast or maybe even pass it to Mahan for a good look from 3.
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In reply to EXCELL • 2:06p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
Quote:
Kennedy's record is five games over .500 in the same time period as when Avery has been in the league, which is the most valid comparison.
OK. So you're really stating that a coach in his 7th year with a program that had a string of tourney appearances is the same start as a coach in his 4th year at a program that wasn't sure it even had a basketball program?

I think I'm back to you being off your meds if you think that's a legitimate comparison. It's convenient, but like comparing the first flight of the Wright Brothers Kittyhawk Flyer to the Lockheed P-80. They're both airplanes. Both were firsts. Kind of different starting points though, don't you think?


In six seasons at Alabama, Anthony Grant had a winning record in the SEC...higher than Johnson's current SEC record. Grant won more than 20 games three times and had season records of 12-4, 12-6, and 9-7. His last campaign at Alabama was 8-10, which is the exact same record that Avery has registered on 2 of his 3 seasons.

Before Grant was Mark Gottfried who won two SEC regular season titles and an Elite Eight berth in the NCAA's.

Yeah, no history. Bamers had never heard of the game until Avery showed up.
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In reply to mhayden • 2:12p, 1/14/19
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free_mhayden said:
Hop said:
EXCELL said:
So, Hop, you're stating that the play call was not to kick it out to Mahan?
That that scenario is a figment of the player's imagination?

Maybe he just wasn't paying close attention in the huddle.



I didn't read that post. I was assuming the comment was in regard to the lob pass over Starks head that resulted in the off-balance 3-point shot.

Had the in-bounds pass been executed as planned, I think there would have been time for either Starks taking it coast-to-coast or a quick pass to an open Mahan who has a very quick release.

Either way, I stick to my original point. To judge any coach on a last play that must go full court in 3 seconds is pretty useless and irrelevant because 80% of those plays don't play out as it was planned in the huddle.


Hop from less than a month ago:

Quote:
free_mhayden said:

So with 4 seconds, 60 feet away, you don't think a team can get a shot off from under 30 feet?

Quote:
Hop said:
No. He was running full speed to get the ball that was bouncing away from his basket. It would have taken a couple of seconds to secure the ball and reverse his direction. As the other poster mentioned, they were in scramble mode and Tinkle wouldn't have time to locate a teammate and throw it 30 feet down the court.


4 seconds = not enough time to move the ball 30 feet.

3.4 seconds = enough time to take it coast-to-coast or maybe even pass it to Mahan for a good look from 3.


I'd be crying too if I spent all morning searching through old posts for your grand "gotcha" moment, only to fall flat with the facts.

There is a huge difference between a guard running full speed in the direction of the basket when he receives a pass versus a player running the opposite direction of the basket to secure the ball and then having an opponent's defender draped all over him.

Why don't you spend your time having an actual discussion that is a lot more entertaining than these attempts at a "gotcha" moment?
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mhayden
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2:32p, 1/14/19
Yes, spent all morning looking for that gotcha.

That, or you tripping over comments you previously made happens pretty regularly.

And before you go on your usual "you're just on an anti-Kennedy rant!", the post in question a few weeks back I was actually defending Starks' hustle.
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2:41p, 1/14/19
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That, or you tripping over comments you previously made happens pretty regularly.

This
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In reply to mhayden • 2:51p, 1/14/19
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free_mhayden said:
Yes, spent all morning looking for that gotcha.

That, or you tripping over comments you previously made happens pretty regularly.

And before you go on your usual "you're just on an anti-Kennedy rant!", the post in question a few weeks back I was actually defending Starks' hustle.


Your "side" doesn't change the facts. The Tinkle guy was running full speed away from the basket to retrieve the ball on the other side of mid/court and fouling him was not very smart...period.

And I'm not tripping over anything. A player given the ball at full speed toward the basketball can make it to the paint in 3 seconds. A player running the opposite direction at full speed can't secure the ball, turn, accelerate, and get much past the mid-court line in that scenario before shooting. Starks gave them a much greater probability to tie/win the game.
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In reply to EXCELL • 2:54p, 1/14/19
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EXCELL said:
Quote:
That, or you tripping over comments you previously made happens pretty regularly.

This


Says the guy who thinks Alabama basketball essentially began with Avery Johnson.

And I still have that dinner available at four wins.
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mhayden
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3:17p, 1/14/19
You think in 3.6 seconds Starks could have taken the inbounds and made a quick pass to an open Mahan for 3.

But in 4.0 seconds a player grabbing the ball, turning around and making a quick pass for 3 simply could not happen.

That's brilliant. I'll bow out of this conversation so as not to have the thread devolve further -- who can argue with that crackerjack analysis.
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