I think Tonny is one of the biggest variables for next year. I think a lot of people are ready to write him off and bury him but I still think he could become a good player for us.
A few of my observations.
- His freshman year he was one of the least efficient players in the country. His KenPom efficiency rating was historically bad, but you could still see the potential for upside.
- Sophomore year he became a very important role player. He improved pretty significantly in just about every category. Maybe most surprising is that he became a fairly effective situational 3 point shooter (37% on 2.2 attempts per game, up from 0 made his freshman year).
- Junior year looks like regression when you look at the numbers. Turnovers doubled, shot way too many 3 pointers at a way too low rate. But..
- I think Tonny made observable physical improvements last year. There were at least a couple of times last year where he blocked a shot or got a rebound and I had to do a "was that really Tonny?" double take.
- I also think that Tonny is uniquely gifted as a passer for a big man. Now, I know this isn't reflected in the numbers. But there have been at least a couple of passes made by Tonny that I don't think any other big man I have seen at A&M could have made. A couple of alley oops to Caruso late in the 2016 season and a behind half court alley oop to Robert Williams last year stand out. I think he has a pretty unique sense of spacing and timing but just doesn't quite yet have the skills polished to the extent needed to fully take advantage of that.
Now what I think off season priorities should be.
- Kennedy said at one point last year post game that "Tonny needs to either spend a lot more time in the gym shooting threes or stop shooting so many threes." Which I think we would all agree with. Obviously there is room to improve but I think most important think next year is shot selection. I'd prefer to see zero contested or off the dribble threes. If he does that I think he can get back to the 37% or so rate we need to see him at.
- Beyond that, I think we have a divergence in what Tonny needs to do as a player to continue his career and what we need him to do next year. Tonny needs to become a better ball handler, better passer, better low post and high post moves, etc. But I don't think we need him to do any of that next year. I think we just need him to be a good defensive player (which I think he can be as a guy that can defend both in the paint and can guard stretch fours on the perimeter) and a facilitator that can create space and open shots for Tyler and Robert as an effective spot up situational three point shooter and a good passer both from the high post and in the paint. I also think he can be an effective offensive rebounder.
- And he also just needs to be a much better finisher. Stronger and more explosive so he can finish in the paint. He shot under 50% on 2 point attempts last year and that number needs to be way up.
Also worth noting that Logan has mentioned Tonny a couple of times this offseason as a guy who has ramped it up a gear in terms of work ethic and that he has made noticeable physical improvements already since the end of the season.
I still think the long term template for Tonny is something like Frank Kaminskey but he isn't going to get there during his time at A&M. I really do think though that this is a guy that can make a lot of money playing basketball but will probably need another couple of years to develop after A&M before he reaches his potential.
I think ideal stat line for Tonny next year is to keep the scoring at about 8 per game but at 50% overall shooting and 35% plus on threes. Shoot 70% on free throws and get the assist to turnover ratio to 2:1. All of which I think is achievable.
Your thoughts?
A few of my observations.
- His freshman year he was one of the least efficient players in the country. His KenPom efficiency rating was historically bad, but you could still see the potential for upside.
- Sophomore year he became a very important role player. He improved pretty significantly in just about every category. Maybe most surprising is that he became a fairly effective situational 3 point shooter (37% on 2.2 attempts per game, up from 0 made his freshman year).
- Junior year looks like regression when you look at the numbers. Turnovers doubled, shot way too many 3 pointers at a way too low rate. But..
- I think Tonny made observable physical improvements last year. There were at least a couple of times last year where he blocked a shot or got a rebound and I had to do a "was that really Tonny?" double take.
- I also think that Tonny is uniquely gifted as a passer for a big man. Now, I know this isn't reflected in the numbers. But there have been at least a couple of passes made by Tonny that I don't think any other big man I have seen at A&M could have made. A couple of alley oops to Caruso late in the 2016 season and a behind half court alley oop to Robert Williams last year stand out. I think he has a pretty unique sense of spacing and timing but just doesn't quite yet have the skills polished to the extent needed to fully take advantage of that.
Now what I think off season priorities should be.
- Kennedy said at one point last year post game that "Tonny needs to either spend a lot more time in the gym shooting threes or stop shooting so many threes." Which I think we would all agree with. Obviously there is room to improve but I think most important think next year is shot selection. I'd prefer to see zero contested or off the dribble threes. If he does that I think he can get back to the 37% or so rate we need to see him at.
- Beyond that, I think we have a divergence in what Tonny needs to do as a player to continue his career and what we need him to do next year. Tonny needs to become a better ball handler, better passer, better low post and high post moves, etc. But I don't think we need him to do any of that next year. I think we just need him to be a good defensive player (which I think he can be as a guy that can defend both in the paint and can guard stretch fours on the perimeter) and a facilitator that can create space and open shots for Tyler and Robert as an effective spot up situational three point shooter and a good passer both from the high post and in the paint. I also think he can be an effective offensive rebounder.
- And he also just needs to be a much better finisher. Stronger and more explosive so he can finish in the paint. He shot under 50% on 2 point attempts last year and that number needs to be way up.
Also worth noting that Logan has mentioned Tonny a couple of times this offseason as a guy who has ramped it up a gear in terms of work ethic and that he has made noticeable physical improvements already since the end of the season.
I still think the long term template for Tonny is something like Frank Kaminskey but he isn't going to get there during his time at A&M. I really do think though that this is a guy that can make a lot of money playing basketball but will probably need another couple of years to develop after A&M before he reaches his potential.
I think ideal stat line for Tonny next year is to keep the scoring at about 8 per game but at 50% overall shooting and 35% plus on threes. Shoot 70% on free throws and get the assist to turnover ratio to 2:1. All of which I think is achievable.
Your thoughts?