Jorts' Saturday Night Miller Lite musings

9,488 Views | 74 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by bobinator
bobinator
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Oh right, current state. You're right, 2012 was such a different time. Gas prices were high, Prince was alive, were TVs even in color yet?
CapCityAg89
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bobinator said:

Kennedy is making like 2.3 million this season. I'm pretty sure that's more than everyone in the league except Avery and Calipari.

I couldn't find it. Most salary info for the SEC was 2016 when he was 13th at best. Your ranking also assumes no other structure increases year to year in which case he's likely back to mid pack (there were 4-5 in the 2.2 range last year).
bobinator
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His contract says 2.3, but yeah, some of the other guys could have gotten bumps to change that ranking. He's still almost definitely in the top 4-5 though.
mhayden
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I posted the full contract info a few weeks back (because apparently no actual news sites were interested). While it's certainly possible other coaches received bonuses and the like starting in 2016, it's safe to assume that Kennedy is still paid in the Top 5 of the conference.

The "you get what you pay for" was relevant when he was making $1m/year... Not now.
mhayden
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bobinator said:

Oh right, current state. You're right, 2012 was such a different time. Gas prices were high, Prince was alive, were TVs even in color yet?

If you want to back-fit the analysis to 2012 so that it fit's your argument then feel free. Or you can post your own data of major conference coaches in the history of time (or 2008, or 2010, or whatever year fits your argument the best) that were given 6 or more years, made the tournament 0 times and what they did with their future years.

But it's rather stupid to sit there and tell me that my data is wrong because you want to include other things that don't fall in the description.
bobinator
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Let me rephrase. Your data set may not be wrong, per se. But if your chosen data is excluding coaches like Andy Kennedy, then it's a stupid data set.

Your argument seems to be that we should fire Kennedy because he's only made the tournament once in six seasons right? So to back up your argument, you're pointing out that only one other power five school has a coach who's made the tournament once or less in six seasons or more.

Presumably, this is meant to show that other schools wouldn't put up with only making the tournament once in six seasons.

But, some of them did with varying degrees of success, and you're willingly ignoring that fact. Your decision to willingly exclude those coaches just because they now serve counter to your argument weakens your entire argument.
mhayden
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I've got a million arguments for firing Kennedy, but my data was simply to show that in the current state of major conference college basketball, major conference coaches (B12, ACC, SEC, P12, B10, BIGE) who have made the tournament less than 1 time (where Kennedy is at) in the last 6 or more seasons no longer have jobs (aside from the Penn State coach).

The data shows how close to a level of futility that Kennedy is at that isn't currently tolerated at any other major conference program.

Now again, if instead of trying to twist that data around to include names you think are worthy of inclusion you are more than welcome to spend time producing this list of the coaches with varying degrees of success from any time period you'd like (including all-time) if you think that shows something more significant.

You have a tendency to try and slightly shift an argument to prove someone wrong or correct someone in absolutes despite needing tacked-on qualifiers to that absolute.
bobinator
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I usually answer in absolutes to a question where the person asking the question doesn't seem to want to dive into the nuances of college basketball. I think I've done that like twice. And please find an example of me shifting an argument. Maybe it's happened, but I don't recall one.

You're the one shifting the argument here. You've decided 2012 isn't "current state of major conference basketball," and you're excluding coaches who have only made the tournament once just to make your data set smaller.

If the base question is "would most schools have fired Kennedy by now" then your data set has nothing to do with that question.

You're eliminating any coaches who went on to the NCAA Tournament after their sixth season AND you're eliminating any coaches who made the NCAA tournament just once in their first six seasons. Why? That seems to be much more relevant to our current situation.
SWAGBOT
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I don't care if what other schools are doing with their coaches, the fact that we will have only made the NCAA Tournament one time in six years is pathetic. IMO we should be making it 1 out of 2 years minimum.We are one of the largest schools in the nation with an incredible talent pool in our state. Last season was the first time since BK has been here that I thought we actually had a strong recruiting class. The SEC is not a great basketball conference, we should be in the top 5 every year.

When we don't make the tourney this year I will be disappointed, but I will feel completely let down if we lose Robert Williams. We'll be better next season, but if he stays we will be of the same caliber if not better than we were last season.
txag72
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Quote:


Is Andy Kennedy a current coach that has been at his school 6+ years and not made the tournament?

Quote:


One school in major college basketball has had a coach that has been given the last 6 or more years and has made the tournament a lesser number of times than Billy Kennedy.

You didn't say "current" in your original post is why I doubted it. I still question that based on what you call a "major" college basketball program. It doesn't take a major college to easily make the tourney, probably even harder for "major" colleges to make it than "minor" colleges IF they set their mind to it.
bobinator
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Back to what the original point should have been about, there are some coaches who only made the tournament once in their first six seasons that schools have hung on to with varying degrees of success. I guess the question is whether or not we think we're better than those programs are or were.

It's one thing for Baylor to hold the line on Scott Drew vs Clemson hanging on to Brad Brownwell. That's not exactly apples to apples.
mhayden
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txag72 said:

Quote:


Is Andy Kennedy a current coach that has been at his school 6+ years and not made the tournament?

Quote:


One school in major college basketball has had a coach that has been given the last 6 or more years and has made the tournament a lesser number of times than Billy Kennedy.

You didn't say "current" in your original post is why I doubted it. I still question that based on what you call a "major" college basketball program. It doesn't take a major college to easily make the tourney, probably even harder for "major" colleges to make it than "minor" colleges IF they set their mind to it.


I used "major" college basketball programs because that is who we are competing with -- teams in other major conferences with similar athletic budgets. Yes, smaller schools with smaller athletic budgets do make the tournament as well, but it would be difficult to go through all 350 NCAA D1 schools and pick which ones you think "take basketball serious" and which ones don't. The easy comparison is major conference schools.
GE
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I'd be interested to know what the 2 in 7 stat is.
CactusThomas
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SWAGBOT said:

IMO we should be making it 1 out of 2 years minimum.


Do you seriously not think that's where we are as a program at this point? BK has built a program capable of making the tournament at least 50 percent of the time, probably a lot more than that going forward if he keeps recruiting at this level.
GrayMatter
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the "ignore" button is a really nice feature to add in this instance.
Method Man
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No guarantees with BK. We should usually do better than we do under him. That's how we are in year six with one tourney appearance because he has his supporters usually looking forward than present. RW and Davis could go pro along with Trocha. Then what?
wacarnolds
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Method Man said:

he has his supporters usually looking forward than present.
Same thing with Sumlin.
billydean05
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Method
No point in arguing with BK lovers. They will never see reality. Always move the bar to fit their argument and the future is always bright.
bobinator
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Is there anyone that's a BK lover? I think there's a few people who think he's not as bad as everyone's making him out to be, but that's not exactly the same.

I haven't seen a lot of "BK is doing a great job and we should keep him" posts, but maybe I'm reading the wrong threads
billydean05
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Cactus Thomas sure sounded like it to me 3 posts up, which is what my post was in reference to. MAllen for sure. GE 90% of time for a few off of the top of my head. Not saying bad people just always think the future is bright with current coach. I do think it is likely we make the tournament next year, but it is not a slam dunk. Melvin got some pretty talented players and never sniffed the tournament and no I am not saying BK is as bad as Melvin but a head coach can make huge swings for a team regardless of talent.
mhayden
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bobinator said:

Is there anyone that's a BK lover? I think there's a few people who think he's not as bad as everyone's making him out to be, but that's not exactly the same.

I haven't seen a lot of "BK is doing a great job and we should keep him" posts, but maybe I'm reading the wrong threads

I wouldn't say "lovers", but there's still a lot of people who think he's built something big here and we're about to go on a string of NCAA Tournament appearances (nevermind they've been saying that for 3 years). You actually hear Elite 8 being thrown around by some people for next year.

It's obviously on a wholly different level of potential, but it's a lot like what you heard during Melvin years about "if we get Player X to A&M and Player Y improves like he should, we could compete for a bubble spot", even though none of the data really backed up that happening.

Next year could be special. But at this point there's more of a chance of missing the tournament next year as there is it being special (Elite 8). Something has gone wrong 5 out of 6 years, and even the year things didn't go wrong we didn't exactly set the world on fire. If we're basing things off of the data we have, there's a higher likelihood something goes wrong and there's a struggle next season more than a likelihood of it being a dominant squad.
JJxvi
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bobinator said:

Kennedy is making like 2.3 million this season. I'm pretty sure that's more than everyone in the league except Avery and Calipari.
Bruce Pearl definitely makes more.
Rick Barnes possibly does.

Is Kennedy's salary really $2.3? Did he keep all of the incentives? Last year he made $1.1 in base and like $900k in incentives for making the tournament, SEC championship, etc.
BasketballCoach
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mhayden
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JJxvi said:

bobinator said:

Kennedy is making like 2.3 million this season. I'm pretty sure that's more than everyone in the league except Avery and Calipari.
Bruce Pearl definitely makes more.
Rick Barnes possibly does.

Is Kennedy's salary really $2.3? Did he keep all of the incentives? Last year he made $1.1 in base and like $900k in incentives for making the tournament, SEC championship, etc.


Yes, I posted the contract details a few weeks back -- should be able to search for it.

That contract extension that was "just for recruiting purposes and wasn't a big deal as long as there wasn't a big salary increase and significant buyout", well.... it had a big salary increase and a significant buyout.

Pearl makes more, Barnes makes a $100k or so more i believe.
Method Man
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bobinator said:

Is there anyone that's a BK lover? I think there's a few people who think he's not as bad as everyone's making him out to be, but that's not exactly the same.

I haven't seen a lot of "BK is doing a great job and we should keep him" posts, but maybe I'm reading the wrong threads


The people that have kept him here and gave him this contract do in fact love him.
t - cam
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txag72 said:

We were at best a bubble team to start the year......in retrospect. Even if this team is playing it's best, it is marginally top 30. Too many weaknesses that can't or won't be over-come this year.


Shouldn't we be happy with top 30 this year?
bobinator
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The "just for recruiting" was the extension two years ago. All the headlines this time said "Kennedy to double his salary"
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

The "just for recruiting" was the extension two years ago. All the headlines this time said "Kennedy to double his salary"
false. according to multiple people on this board, there were recruits about to make a decision and the contract needed to executed before we played in the NCAAT
bobinator
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I meant on the board, not like real people.
bobinator
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What do you mean false. That's literally what happened.
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

What do you mean false. That's literally what happened.
I mean that there were recruiting implications tied to this contract extension as well
bobinator
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I don't remember that at all. I do remember the pointless extension in 2015 that neither changed his salary nor the buyout. This time around he got a whole new contract.
bobinator
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Williams and Caldwell both signed in the early signing period. And we announced Kennedy's new contract while we were still in the tournament.
wacarnolds
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bobinator said:

Williams and Caldwell both signed in the early signing period. And we announced Kennedy's new contract while we were still in the tournament.
we announced it before the tournament, actually. I believe after we worked LSU and before the Kentucky rematch.
bobinator
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Looks like March 12 so you're right, but I don't remember anyone saying the timing had anything to do with recruiting. And I definitely don't remember anyone saying the terms of this contract weren't a big change
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