The NCAA Championship is to a very large degree, luck of the draw. The very best teams over the year very rarely actually win the tournament because of this, so pull winning it all out of the mix.
I'll be contrarian too, and say it's more important to have pro-level talent to have success. The very best performing teams all have at least two pro-caliber players (NBA). Last year, we had Jones and House and we saw success. This year we have a raw Williams (definitely a pro) and then Hogg, Davis, Gilder and TTM who probably all have a shot, but also have deficiencies. This is a young team and IF those guys develop against those deficiencies (although it'll be tough for Davis to grow via hard work), we have a chance at success.
As to "coaching," there are certainly examples of lesser-talented teams having sustained success (high seed), but they are few and far between. To the extent that "coaching" includes recruiting, I'd agree, but without talent John Wooden would look much more pedestrian. Hell, the most talented team of the BCG era only made the NIT.
