With the continued incursion and potential escalation of the conflict in Ukraine I think we might be about to watch a modern war be fought in real time over social media. As such I thought this might be a good place to collect sources and discuss observations of what each side is doing. As you all see things pop up please feel free to tag it here.



This guy seems to have a pretty good grasp on what the Russian military is doing. Not sure where his intel is coming from but it at least appears legit.

Let's try and keep the discussion of politics to a bare minimum.

SCENARIOS
UKRAINIAN MILITARY
ALTERNATIVE PERSPECTIVE
RUSSIAN BUILDUP
PUTIN
HISTORY

I'm glad the Iraqi insurgents didn't have Javelins and MANPADS (at least not common).

Russia will experience the opposite.

Tessaron news on Instagram and this other Twitter account are pretty useful sources for finding videos, photos, flight tracking, and other tidbits scattered around social media.

https://instagr.am/p/CZnZ0eYL9yl

🇷🇺🇧🇾Coverage of the S-400 "Triumph" air defense system deployed on the territory of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.#Ukraine #Russia pic.twitter.com/uJpoHkpkp6

— Ukraine War Report (@UkrWarReport) January 26, 2022

Looks like Putin has upped his list of demands and the long-awaited false-flag operation is underway in the Donbas. PRECIPICE

Yes, looks like the escalation is on glidepath to keep them from having to pull all forces out of Belarus after February 20th like they promised.

It's on.

Russian prisoners of war taken by Ukraine’s 93rd Mechanized Brigade today pic.twitter.com/BIDCXle1A6

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 24, 2022

Reportedly, the 6th Russian aircraft downed by Ukraine pic.twitter.com/XG2Kb2A0wm

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 24, 2022

Ka-52 Alligator all-weather attack helicopter operated by the Russian air force shot down by #Ukrainian forces #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #Putin https://t.co/S6JU2kg15h

— VAZY°🇮🇳 (@vazy_7011) February 24, 2022

CT'97 said:

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Reportedly, the 6th Russian aircraft downed by Ukraine pic.twitter.com/XG2Kb2A0wm

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 24, 2022

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Seems like a fake photo. Here's the same photo from 2018.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/131005/Saudi-jet-fighter-downed-by-Yemenis


https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world-tornado-fighter-jet-crashes-in-saudi-arabia-during-return-from-training-mission-452511

Hard to ID anything but supposedly T-72 and MTLB's destroyed outside of Kharkiv. Likely a lead scout element for an armored unit.
Digging back a long way back in my memory but the Russian armored scout element was 2 T-72's and 2 BTR's. Not sure why the MTLB's would be there, that is usually used for support personnel.

This video posted on imgur is supposed to be those burning tanks on ring road according to the translation provided. pic.twitter.com/qJXdAeIPfL

— Arturo Gonzalez (@jonsknowsnothin) February 24, 2022

CanyonAg77 said:

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CT'97 said:

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Reportedly, the 6th Russian aircraft downed by Ukraine pic.twitter.com/XG2Kb2A0wm

— Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) February 24, 2022

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Seems like a fake photo. Here's the same photo from 2018.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/131005/Saudi-jet-fighter-downed-by-Yemenis


https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/world-tornado-fighter-jet-crashes-in-saudi-arabia-during-return-from-training-mission-452511

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Looks like it, I wondered how many old photo's would be rehashed to get a tweet published.

Definitely the same picture, but that doesn't look like a tornado. A tornado is a swing wing single vertical stabilizer jet. That pic looks like a mig-29.

Looks like at the end of day 1 the Russians are pushing on three fronts from the north, south, and east.

In the north they have occupied Chernihiv on their way south. The Russians executed an air assault mission to seize the Antinov airport north west of Kyiv. Reports are that the Ukrainians have massed and surrounded that airport in preparation to attack it. Probably in the morning tomorrow.

A southern push from Crimea has cross the Dnieper river but no major fighting has taken place.

The eastern push seems to be were the majority of the fighting is taking place around Kharkiv. Lots of video of what seems to be scout elements in contact and destroyed vehicles on both sides. Also a lot of images of soviet vehicles that seem to be intact but abandoned and looted. I suspect this is mechanical failures from poorly maintained vehicles and poorly trained troops just walking away from them. I have also seen a couple videos where a single vehicle from a platoon was destroyed and the rest of the vehicles were abandoned and sitting there seemingly untouched.

Weather seems to be in the Russian's favor for the next 10 days with highs around 40 and lows dropping to freezing at night. No major rain in that time frame. Expect that to change as we get into March and more spring like weather and rains.

The biggest thing that stands out to me is that the Ukrainian army is in fact fighting back and causing casualties on the Russian side.

Ukrainians lining up to join civil defense forces. These people don't seem to just want to roll over and accept the Russians taking over.

#Kyiv more and more people coming to sign up for Territorial Defense battalions pic.twitter.com/ktWGSdfs2D

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) February 24, 2022

My question is whether even the heaviest sanctions will stop Putin now. I'd think he weighed that consideration before deciding to do this.

Teacher_Ag said:

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Ky question is whether even the heaviest sanctions will stop Putin now. I'd think he weighed that consideration before deciding to do this.

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I don't think any western actions could have stopped this. Putin put this in motion maybe as much as a year ago with a time line to kick off as soon as the Olympics were over and stuck to his plan. He has acted to insulate the Russian economy from external forces and and the more we sanction Russia the more we empower him and convince the Russian people they need him to counter the west.

Regular updates are posted at the bottom of this article: FIGHTING

Putin going for the quick win: Decapitation

Recap of Ukraine vs Russia armed forces. Obviously, Kiev is all-in, while Moscow is using a fraction of its military might.

FORCES
MISSILES

If this is true then it's a pretty big set back for the Russians to lose that air field. Beyond this one statement I haven't seen anything confirming it. There was video and reports confirming artillery strikes and heavy fighting in the area.

edit - This is the Antinov airfield I referenced earlier. Hostomel is apparently the city or region it's actually in.

⚡️ Russian assault force in Hostomel airport fully destroyed.

The facility is entirely under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — adviser to Head of the Presidential Office Oleksii Arestovych. #StandWithUkraine

— Stratcom Centre UA (@StratcomCentre) February 24, 2022

Protests picking up steam in Russia despite video earlier today of protestors being arrested and Putin's personal threat against anybody supporting Ukraine.

*Yes I know who's twitter that is, I'm not trying to make a political statement. Just showing what I'm seeing.*

Look at the size of anti-war protestors in St Petersburg, Russia. Wow pic.twitter.com/dHg9Uwt9RQ

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) February 24, 2022

Pushkin Square, maybe less than 1000 meters from Red Square and the Kremlin, is the cite of a significant protest. These people know the risks of challenging the regime. They’re on the street in-spite of major personal costs. pic.twitter.com/bYEfbO91xG

— Alexander S. Vindman (@AVindman) February 24, 2022

Looks like Putin is facing growing dissent: LETTER

74OA said:

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Looks like Putin is facing growing dissent: LETTER

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Yes, seems he doesn't have local support. We will see if those 150 officials disappear in the coming days.

Was this a wag the dog event? Putin loosing support and needing a straw-man to attack in order to retain power?

CT'97 said:

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74OA said:

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Looks like Putin is facing growing dissent: LETTER

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Yes, seems he doesn't have local support. We will see if those 150 officials disappear in the coming days.

Was this a wag the dog event? Putin loosing support and needing a straw-man to attack in order to retain power?

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Most Russians are likely brainwashed, but protests of any size are an embarrassment for Putin and the body bags haven't started arriving back in Mother Russia yet. Early days.

Could very well be fake news, but thought I'd share. Seems like a very American thing to say. Like "NUTS!"

Anyone know the score?

I equate it to Travis' cannon shot in answer to Santa Ana's demand for surrender at the Alamo, followed by Santa Ana's order to play Deguello. Interestingly, it's now in the 13 day siege period for the Alamo.

micahb2002 said:

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Anyone know the score?

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Ukraine is putting up a stiff resistance. Russian has about 50% of it's troops employed and has yet to achieve some of it's first day objectives. There have been multiple locations traded back and forth in the fighting over for the last 48 hours.
Seems like Ukrainians are turning out in mass to fight the Russians. Lot's of images of civilians with AK's running around the streets of Kyiv to repel Russians who have made it to the northern suburbs of the city. All other avenues of approach have been stalled.

CT'97 said:

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Hard to ID anything but supposedly T-72 and MTLB's destroyed outside of Kharkiv. Likely a lead scout element for an armored unit.
Digging back a long way back in my memory but the Russian armored scout element was 2 T-72's and 2 BTR's. Not sure why the MTLB's would be there, that is usually used for support personnel.

This video posted on imgur is supposed to be those burning tanks on ring road according to the translation provided. pic.twitter.com/qJXdAeIPfL

— Arturo Gonzalez (@jonsknowsnothin) February 24, 2022

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I can't find my old battle book from when I was stationed in Germany (1-6 IN(Mech), 1AD), but if memory serves the lead element combat recon patrol (CRP) for a motor rifle regiment (MRR) was 3 sets of 3x BMPs, doing recon of 3 routes. That would be followed by a forward security element (FSE), company + size, I think 3 tanks and 10 BMPs (1 tank platoon and 3x BMP platoons, plus a command BMP). That would generally follow the most promising route of advance identified by the CRPs, and hopefully create an initial breach or gap to be exploited by the MRR main effort.

If the mech infantry unit was BTR equipped, substitute those for BMPs.

From what I recall reading about the fighting before I retired in 2016, a lot of the Soviet Russian tank/mech forces were now in task organized into battlegroups with tank, mech infantry and artillery down to the battalion level.

Those MT-LBs are probably the MT-LBM variant, which had a BTR-80 turret with either a 14.5mm HMG or a 23mm cannon installed.