Likely the most probable reason

JABQ04 said:

---

Looks somebody didn't do enough survivability moves during training.

---

I'll be using this video anytime a soldier questions why we're doing so much moving in training.

Russia begins to accumulate resources for storming Kyiv. Meanwhile, the Pentagon assesses that 95% of the Russian forces at the borders have already entered Ukraine and that the Russians did not achieve their plans for air domination.https://t.co/9G181FqZSZ pic.twitter.com/Hx3yM5UNGb

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) March 7, 2022

I think this map does a good job of more accurately representing the true nature of many of the Russian advances. They control long thin road segments. This is why we are seeing so many videos of ambushes along those routes.

Deep penetrations aren't stopped by putting major blocking forces in front but rather by putting friction on the sides slowing the supply lines and requiring increased force to secure the flanks that are continually growing the deeper the penetration goes.

A video and photos that stood out to me in the last 24 h ours.

#Ukraine: More recent footage from the eyes of the Bayraktar TB2 drone in the hands of the Ukrainian military; another 9K317 Buk-M2 TELAR completely destroyed. pic.twitter.com/y2uUGKil99

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 10, 2022

Another TB2 strike on a Russian BUK surface to air system. Two things stand out here, first it's the 13th day of being struck by the UA drones and they still aren't operating their SAM systems in any kind of coherent network. Second, it's missing two of it's missiles. I'm assuming those were fired at UA air craft, but haven't been rearmed or operating their radar.

Photos from a destroyed Russian convoy in Chernihiv, including a KamAZ truck transporting MLRS rockets, a T-72B3 tank, and an Osa air defense system TELAR. https://t.co/zLrmg1hgN3 pic.twitter.com/gCTfU15H6q

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 9, 2022

That truck with the rockets in the back represents the achillies heel of the MLRS rocket systems. That's 1 full reload, 24 rockets, for the Russian TOS-1 MLRS system. It takes a lot of trucks to transport reloads and I expect the Russian turn to use of dumb bombs from their air craft is in part because they can't reload their MLRS systems. I expect to see more and more abandoned and empty Russian MLRS systems.

For an Army based on mass use of combined fires these total break downs is inexpiable.

Looks like the Russians may soon have Ukraine by the strategic economic scrotum by controlling 25% of the country's electrical power generation with just two power stations.

Zaporizhzhia and Yuzhnoukrainsk are modern VVERs equivalent to Western PWRs.
Nine 1000 MWe units, lots of eggs in two baskets.

The salient pushing towards Yuzhnoukrainsk is getting very close.
Russians already control Zaporizhzhia.

Rather significant chip they'll hold.

It doesn't take a large force to hold those two plants and deny them to Ukraine, however resupply may get interesting.

Does Ukraine not have links into Poland and other NATO countries to make up the difference?

They didn't. I thought I read that the EU had granted permission to link to the grid in Poland and that was already in process.

It looks like they started to move in that direction but it's not complete. It should be complete in the next week.

EU to urgently link electricity grid with Ukraine's

Quote:

---

BRUSSELS, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Energy ministers from European Union countries on Monday agreed to urgently link a European power system to Ukraine's grid, a move that would increase its independence from Russia following Moscow's invasion of the country.

---

Ukraine fears blackout, calls on EU to secure electricity supply

Quote:

---

Ukraine is currently disconnected from the Russian, Belarusian and European electricity grids because it was running a test to fully join the European grid when Russia invaded the country.
Kyiv is now looking for an emergency integration into the European continental electricity grid to prevent blackouts and ensure the energy system remains stable as Russia's invasion continues.
The process of synchronising the Ukrainian power system with Europe's is in the final stage and should be completed in the next few days, Ukraine's Ministry of Energy said on Tuesday (8 March).
"We expect our accession to take place next week," energy minister German Galuschenko said.

---

Every industrialized country has the same vulnerabilities
- a few key pipelines & hubs for transportation fuels
- a few key transmission lines and interconnect switch yards for the electrical grid
- a few key natural gas hubs
- a few key internet server farms critical to certain segments of e.commerce.
You don't have to interrupt them all, 30-40% will choke the targeted country's economy to a slow crawl.

Some info on why the two nuke stations are strategically economically important to Ukraine , even if Russia doesn't overthrow the govt.

Those two nuke stations with nine reactors generate 72.5 million megawatts of power each year.
Assuming 92% avg capacity factor which is typical for a PWR ( VVER) on 18 month fuel cycle.

9000x 24x365x92%

Polish wholesale power is $196/megawatt.
That would require Ukraine to buy
$14 Billion each year in wholesale rate power purchases.
That is 10% of their 2020 GDP, just to purchase lost electrical output from the two nuke stations.

IF the power is even available to be bought and IF the grid infrastructure connections can support transmission of that much load.

And assuming extra demand does not cause price increases on the EU power grid market. .



Reference

In the observed period, weighted average monthly electricity prices on the day-ahead market in Poland increased from 163.95 zloty/MWh in January 2018 to nearly 830 zloty/MWh (179.79 EUR/MWh) in December 2021.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1066654/poland-wholesale-electricity-prices/

Russian forces around Kyiv are retreating en masse, leaving behind wrecked armour and possibly trapped pockets of troops as the Ukrainian army advances.

This map shows settlements confirmed recaptured today (blue) and yesterday (yellow).

The siege of Chernihiv is also lifted. pic.twitter.com/eINXgPpyJr

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) April 1, 2022

Russia is pulling back in the north. Probably to consolidate and reinforce their southern pushes into the Donbas region.

An oil storage facility in Belgorod is burning but the cause seems to be in debate. I doubt a helicopter strike, but the Ukrainians have struck train depots around Belgorod in the past with drones.

We’re 6 weeks into the war, and Ukraine is executing cross-border helicopter strikes into Russia.

I don’t think *anyone* saw that coming.

They’ve done some serious damage to a fuel depot in Belgorod.

pic.twitter.com/xSKth9gJhT

— Angry Staffer 🌻 (@Angry_Staffer) April 1, 2022

#BREAKING
The Ukrainian General Staff tells my colleague @fpiatov, it does “not have this information” that Ukrainian forces attacked an oil depot in Belgorod oblast, hinting that the attack could have been a Russian false flag operation to justify further brutal attacks on 🇺🇦.

— Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 (@JulianRoepcke) April 1, 2022

Today is the conscription day and supposedly the release of last years conscripts. We know many of them are still in Ukraine so not sure how Russia will solve that problem. My guess is another wave of mass forced contracts will get signed if it hasn't already happened.

As the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine, many youths back home are feeling jittery about the prospect of being drafted and sent into combat. Russia's annual spring conscription starts Friday, aiming to recruit 134,500 young men for one year. https://t.co/xyS3p0HJas

— The Associated Press (@AP) April 1, 2022

Supposed CCTV footage of the strike. Clearly it's helicopters, not sure where the CCTV footage was taken from or when. This is looking like a false flag operation but I'm not believing anything just yet.

CCTV footage pic.twitter.com/GXpOr1Pmgd

— Aldin 🇧🇦 (@tinso_ww) April 1, 2022

Russia has pulled back from their northern axis completely and most likely are attempting to reconstitute those units for redeployment into the eastern and southern areas through the Donbas region. The theory being Putin can then claim a victory by "freeing" the ethnic Russians in that region.
ISW Terrain Control Map

As Ukrainians push back into the vacated cities the images that are coming out are as bad as it gets and I imagine it's similar to what Poland and Eastern Germany looked like when Russia pushed through at the end of WW2.

Anybody who has ever operated around the Russians will recognize a lot of similar trends here, basically the Russian officers don't care about their enlisted or what they do as long as they follow orders when it's time to go fight. This leads to a lot of black market and illegal activity being the norm in peace time. When you deploy those units to combat it just gets worse and we are seeing the result.

Add to that the Russians are actively preparing their population to accept the genocide of the Ukrainian population and you see the complicit nature of the government in allowing it's military to operate in this manor.

THREAD: Russian state-owned propaganda outlet RIA published the new programmatic article with the title "What Russia must do with Ukraine". The article reveals a detailed plan for a genocide, starting from full elimination of Ukrainian state. Details below. pic.twitter.com/Nf0cR59cBa

— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) April 4, 2022

On the topic of reconstituting those units being pulled out of Northern and Easter Ukraine. Russia has initiated a call up of reserve troops. I don't know the relationship of reserves to their regular army and will have to get smarter on that, but replacing troops will be difficult for Russia and replacing equipment will be even harder. I expect units that weren't mobilized will be stripped of top tier equipment, T-80's and upgraded T-72's, BMP 3's, and BTR-84's. The best estimates based on actual OSINT images suggest a loss of over 300 tanks alone. That's the equivalent of all the tanks in one of their armored divisions. You can't just replace that over night without striping other units bare.

The long term implications are not good for Russia's military. With a failing economy there will not be money to replace those destroyed vehicles. Their modernization plan started in 2014 obviously has failed as we have seen major portions of it, radios, thermal sites, GPS integration, etc. not present or not operational.

Today's SITREP.

Just look at Zelenskyy's face.

This is a bit old but still a good review of the idea that Russia is deploying it's worst units.

74OA said:

---

Today's SITREP.

Just look at Zelenskyy's face.

---

I want Putin's face to look just like that.

But deader.

Nice discussion of the way forward assisting Ukraine now that the battle has changed. LONG WAR

Good overview of Putin's options at this point. BAD CHOICES

A very complete criticism of Russian operations...

Anyone have any speculations on how Russia in Ukraine, and the west's assistance, is playing out in China regarding Taiwan?

I suspect the Chinese military is far better prepared to assault Taiwan, but I wonder if this experience has given them pause in their ability for a rapid victory? Or if it's given them ideas on how to prevent western resupply of a Taiwan under attack.

bigtruckguy3500 said:

---

Anyone have any speculations on how Russia in Ukraine, and the west's assistance, is playing out in China regarding Taiwan?

I suspect the Chinese military is far better prepared to assault Taiwan, but I wonder if this experience has given them pause in their ability for a rapid victory? Or if it's given them ideas on how to prevent western resupply of a Taiwan under attack.

---

Many experts believe that if China attempts to take Taiwan, it will likely happen within the next 5-8 years. But we would have no choice but to engage them directly.

Yeah, Taiwan is 1/16th the size of Ukraine. But also without any direct land connection to China. I now also have greater confidence in the Chinese Air Forces than I do in the Russian. I don't think Taiwan could hold out as long as Ukraine has been able to. However I'm sure if the Chinese attempted a beach invasion, or use of paratroopers, we could have the Taiwanese somewhat well stocked for an insurgency.

Also, do we have any ability to put sanctions on China? Are our economies so interwined that we would support Taiwan but still buy stuff from China? Much like some of Europe is having a hard time giving up Russian oil and gas?

bigtruckguy3500 said:

---

Anyone have any speculations on how Russia in Ukraine, and the west's assistance, is playing out in China regarding Taiwan?

I suspect the Chinese military is far better prepared to assault Taiwan, but I wonder if this experience has given them pause in their ability for a rapid victory? Or if it's given them ideas on how to prevent western resupply of a Taiwan under attack.

---

It is prudent for all countries to analyze for both sides what went right and what went wrong. What are the game changers in the war. Who absolutely sucked at what? My perception is the value of precision weapons is significant and the Russians have not bought into that doctrine and are suffering because of that. I consider this war revolutionary in the sense a smaller military has used a significant amount and volume of precision weapons to fight against a larger force.

The Germans conducted an AAR of WWI to prepare for WWII. - What was planned? Offensive Maneuvers.
- What happened? The range of weapons far exceeded the ability to maneuver effectively.
- How to shrink the delta? Blitzkrieg.

Having said this. The Revolution In Military affairs will be hypersonic missiles. Our tank rounds travel one mile per second. That is the minimum speed for hypersonic missiles. A missile 10 miles away can hit a target in 10 seconds. We are trying to figure out how to defend that.