Starting this thread to track the spread in SAT. Brief summary of the exposure vector:
Evacuee from Wuhan was released for return to home from quarantine at Lackand. She later had a positive test for Covid 19. During her time out of quarantine she visited North Star mall and checked in at the Holiday Inn Express (Airport). Full timeline available here:
https://www.sanantonio.gov/Department-News/ArtMID/6798/ArticleID/18426/City-of-San-Antonio-shares-COVID-19-patient-timeline

Turning into quite the cluster. The City wants to extend the quarantines rather than release anyone, even those who have not tested positive. The federal government's quarantine order only lasted 14 days for those who tested negative, so it wants to let the folks leave. Off to court we go.

Moving people through major transportation hubs for what appears to be a highly infectious virus is probably not the best decision. I am not am Epidemiologist, but for something with a mortality rate of around 10% in vulnerable populations a rental car and a self-quarantine policy might be a better route.

In other news, if you have not reviewed the statistics that I mentioned above please familiarize yourself. The most susceptible groups, as normal, are the older and the infirm.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

It's worth noting that she tested negative twice prior to the third test, which was a weak positive.

They shut the whole mall down.

City leaders are really scrambling to make it clear it's not their fault.

Our neighbors to the east are starting to have cases pop up....


https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/coronavirus-2-cases-harris-county-houston-outbreak-15108596.php

https://abc13.com/health/presumptive-case-of-covid-19-found-fort-bend-co/5977165/

Good point. Didn't realize there was a small cluster in Mexico

I am proud of San Antonio organizations for, so far, taking a fairly measured approach. Most of the schools have only extended their Spring Break a week (although Trinity went full bore remote).
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/03/11/these-events-have-been-canceled-postponed-around-san-antonio-over-coronavirus/

The national hysteria on this is ridiculous. Every person on the news is acting like cancelling sporting events is the right thing to do for the athletes. Well, are the athletes lives anymore important than the lives of the trucker drivers or the grocery store cashiers that enables 98% of the population to get food? How about they familiarize themselves with what an actual infection of Covid-19 looks like instead of fear mongering.
https://www.ksat.com/news/national/2020/03/11/i-had-covid-19-and-heres-my-story-woman-shares-details-of-coronavirus-experience/

An alternative view. Full disclosure, it is from facebook. But the OP lives in Italy and appears to have first hand info, and it is consistent with news reports out of Italy.

Quote:

---

I am writing to you from Bergamo, Italy, at the heart of the coronavirus crisis. The news media in the US has not captured the severity of what is happening here. I am writing this post because each of you, today, not the government, not the school district, not the mayor, each individual citizen has the chance, today to take actions that will deter the Italian situation from becoming your own country's reality. The only way to stop this virus is to limit contagion. And the only way to limit contagion is for millions of people to change their behavior today.
If you are in Europe or the US you are weeks away from where we are today in Italy.
I can hear you now. "It's just a flu. It only affects old people with preconditions"
There are 2 reasons why Coronavirus has brought Italy to it's knees. First it is a flu is devastating when people get really sick they need weeks of ICU and, second, because of how fast and effectively it spreads. There is 2 week incubation period and many who have it never show symptoms.
When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lock down, the line that struck me most was "there is no more time." Because to be clear, this national lock down, is a hail mary. What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse.
Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. If the numbers do not go down, the growth rate of contagion tells us that there will be thousands of people who in a matter of a week? two weeks? who will need care. What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left?
On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse.
There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there?
And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment.
You have a chance to make a difference and stop the spread in your country. Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can. If you have a fever, any fever, stay home. Push for school closures, now. Anything you can do to stop the spread, because it is spreading in your communities there is a two week incubation period and if you do these things now you can buy your medical system time.
And for those who say it is not possible to close the schools, and do all these other things, locking down Italy was beyond anyone's imagination a week ago.
Soon you will not have a choice, so do what you can now.

---

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Warning, it's long.

TL/DR Social Distancing: "... as soon as there was a lockdown, cases went down. That's because people didn't interact with each other, and the virus didn't spread ... People might complain now, but they'll thank you later."

Discuss.

My discussion point, the last thing this guy posted was "What the Rise of Skywalker can teach you about storytelling". Why would I read anything this guy has on Coronavirus?

As we get further into the "pandemic" more is becoming known about the virus. Including that on the Diamond Princess alone, 50% of the infected population was asymptomatic. This means two things to me:
1) It will be a lot harder to contain because it won't be easy to track who has it.
2) The actual mortality impact will be less than some have estimated due to the large percentage of people that are unaffected by it.

Summary and source below

"About half the people who tested positive for the coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship appeared to show no symptoms, according to an estimate published Friday. Of the 634 confirmed cases aboard the ship off of the coast of Japan last month, 328 were reported to be asymptomatic, the review said. There were 3,063 people tested on the ship in total."

https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

Looks like all the local school districts are extending spring break for a week.

valtosca said:

---

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Warning, it's long.

TL/DR Social Distancing: "... as soon as there was a lockdown, cases went down. That's because people didn't interact with each other, and the virus didn't spread ... People might complain now, but they'll thank you later."

Discuss.

---

After reading the entire article and listening to experts on tucker Carlson tonight, my conclusion is we're ****ed.

We are not going to have the icu units or ventilators to handle the number of cases.

Lack of testing has resulted in us tremendously underestimating the number of cases resulting in us waiting to long to act.

I hope the guy doing the analysis is wrong but it seems to be a well thought out well reasoned interpretation of the available data.

The dude on Rogan's podcast was good. I work for NISD and we were told to report in at the end of next week. I have a feeling that we will get pd on distance learning. If you have kids, I would plan for thwm to be at home for a while. We hardly ever shut down. I was shocked SB was extended

CherryLodes said:

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The dude on Rogan's podcast was good. I work for NISD and we were told to report in at the end of next week. I have a feeling that we will get pd on distance learning. If you have kids, I would plan for thwm to be at home for a while. We hardly ever shut down. I was shocked SB was extended

---

I'm at NEISD...we'll end up doing whatever y'all do, I'm sure.

If you had to guess, when do you think we'll have kids back in class?

The CDC just recommended closing schools for 8-20 weeks.

I don't see how this will work.

How would primary school kids receive instruction?

I honestly have no idea. I think early april at the earliest. And it will be damn near impossible to do distance ed for primary. We can give suggestions, we can assign things to complete, but the accountability is completely out of our hands. They may or may not have the resources at home. May or may not have parental supervision. It's a logistical nightmare. Im on the sped side. The compliance issues alone are giving me a headache

I can't imagine Sped. Surely they will have to waive timelines, ARD requirements...and how in the world can you implement an IEP?

I'm sure the talking heads are working on that through the weekend. I have 2 ards a week scheduled now through mid May. I'm currently looking at when all of mine are actually due and contacting parents that were scheduled this week. We may offer extended school year for some. Some may get homebound. I guess it will depend on how long this lasts. Its a mess

https://abc13-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/abc13.com/amp/6013971?amp_js_v=a3&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15842833906818&_ct=1584283498631&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fabc13.com%2F6013971

TEXAS COUPLE HIRES MARIACHI BAND TO PLAY INSIDE A CROWDED H-E-B TO HELP EASE CORONAVIRUS TENSIONS


SCHERTZ, Texas (KTRK) -- Many Texans have been frantically searching local grocery stores to prepare their homes for the COVID-19 outbreak.

One couple attempted to ease this anxiety at their local grocery store.


Emmanuel and Maira Mallen hired a band to serenade frantic shoppers with mariachi music at their local H-E-B Plus.

Take it to the Puro San Antonio thread!

I duuno, this must be getting serious. We've cancelled the Monday SA A&M Club luncheon,

The CDC has published new guidance. Bottom line:
Keep gatherings to less than 50 people.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/large-events/mass-gatherings-ready-for-covid-19.html

A reminder to everyone, if you are sick don't go to public places.
If you are or live with someone that has a very weak immune system or a sever respiratory disorder, don't go to public places.
Everyone else, wash your hands!

Finally, some decent analysis coming out on the virus. Not great numbers, but a lot better than apocalypse the talking heads are predicting.

"In a rare piece of good news about Covid-19, a team of infectious disease experts calculates that the fatality rate in people who have symptoms of the disease caused by the new coronavirus is about 1.4%. Although that estimate applies specifically to Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak began, and is based on data from there, it offers a guide to the rest of the world, where many countries might see even lower death rates."

"The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%."


Data
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-17453/v1

Mid-teens number of docs with it at University (whether that's publicly acknowledged yet or not). Lots of spread from early March travel when carriers were asymptomatic, but hopefully spread slows now that a lot of folks are shut in or at least significantly reducing their exposure to others.

If one assumes a 40% infection rate throughout the US that % is still alarming. Here is hoping all of these efforts will keep the infection rate down.