Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos

January 2025 Central Texas Housing Market Report

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Clare Knapp, Ph.D., housing economist for Unlock MLS and the Austin Board of REALTORS, noted that rising mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges have driven first-time homebuyers to lease single-family homes as a more accessible option.

"The single-family leasing market is often a more affordable option for potential homebuyers, and with median rents stabilizing at $2,195 in the MSA, we're seeing a shift in dynamics. While home prices increased nearly 40% from 2019 to 2024, rents rose a more moderate 25%, making leasing a relatively more accessible optionparticularly for potential first-time buyers. However, while leasing provides short-term affordability and flexibility, renters miss out on the long-term financial benefits of building equity through homeownership. With more inventory in both the for-sale and for-lease markets, potential homeowners and renters have more options than ever before. This dynamic allows them the opportunity to plan for a transition into homeownership while still benefitting from competitive lease options."

Brandy Wuensch, 2025 Unlock MLS and ABoR president, emphasized that Unlock MLS' expansion of the Central Texas Housing Report to include single-family residential leasing activity gives a more transparent and robust picture of the region's real estate market.
"With the increased leasing activity we're seeing alongside home sales, it's clear that both buyers and renters are actively engaging with Central Texas' housing market. Unlock MLS is proud to start delivering leasing data to provide a deeper look at market trends, empowering professional agents with the insights they need to make informed decisions on behalf of their clients. Whether someone is looking to purchase, sell or rent a home, working with an Unlock MLS agent who has access to the most transparent data ensures they can confidently navigate their next move in our housing market."

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Real estate has been a bit slow this past month, but I'm grateful to have helped a fellow Aggie with their home purchase in January. My Spring Branch listing received an offer late last month, and we're aiming for a March closing. It's currently in the option period, but if all goes well, my clients plan to make an offer on a home near Wimberley or Driftwood. If everything comes together, they'll save about $12,000 in listing fees and earned buyer rebates!


In terms of the Greater Austin real estate market, here's an overview of the latest trends:

• Median Sales Prices: After two months of increases, we see a decrease of 4.7% year-over-year (YOY) to $409,765!
• Closed Sales: Increased slightly to 1.1% YOY to 1,761.
• Active Listings: Increased by double digits to 16.5% YOY to 9,616.
• Pending Sales: Are down 7.5% YOY to 2,202.
• Months of Inventory: Wow! We are pushing closer to 6 months of inventory. We are currently at 5.6 months, an increase of 1.8 months from last month and up 0.9 months YOY, reflecting a more balanced market.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County


Austin-RR-San Marcos Rental Data

Our DFW agent, Red Pear Jack, will get those done shortly.

There's a rental report that I can start posting if y'all would find it beneficial.

Bryan / College Station Area Statistics:

The Trend is Your Friend:

• In January 2025, new listings in the Bryan-College Station area reached 486, the second-highest total over the past 5 years (highest was 538 in January 2020), reflecting a significant surge in market activity and aligning with new year expectations. This figure is 23.7% higher than the 5-year average of 393 (excluding 2020) or 16.5% higher than the 5-year average of 417 (including 2020).
• Inventory continues to grow, particularly in the higher end segments, where the breakout includes 1,166 active listings below $350,000 and 1,378 active listings above $350,000. For Brazos County specifically - that is 422 active listings below $350K and 499 active listings above $350K.
• Homes with 4+ bedrooms (81 units) represented 44% of the total number of units sold (184 units total). Those 4+ bedroom homes averaged a sales price of $505,000. Meanwhile, 3 bedroom homes represented 46% of the total number of units sold and averaged a sales price of $321,000.
• The Bryan-College Station Metro had average days on market reach 120 days. Which is a notable increase compared to the pandemic years, but getting back to more of what trends we were seeing in 2019.
• The takeaway? Buyer behavior is still cautious due to continued affordability challenges from higher interest rates (and maybe the beginning of over supply or reversion to the Pre-Pandemic trends?)

Bryan/College Station MSA:





Brazos County:




Bryan:



College Station:

NORTH TEXAS

• Overall, price growth continues to be sticking in the metroplex with some major counties seeing some decrease. These are likely buyers taking advantage of the weak part of the season and inventory that has been sitting.
• Active listings continue to increase at a rapid pace, up 40.4% YoY, driving up MOI to 3.5 from 2.4 PY and DOM to 102.
• It is shaping up for an interesting busy season. There is strong demand in the under 450k category; and we will likely see strong demand for suburban product with minimal work needed, zoned to good school districts.
• The UST10 is sitting at 20bps below its recent high in January. Translating into a 17bps decrease on mortgage rates (average at 6.87% per Freddie for 30-Year). Buyers will come out in force below 6%. However, given recent volatility lately, I don't know if there is a path for that.
• It is still pretty amazing to see price growth in Dallas given the rise in inventory. In October, Dallas was the only major Texas market to see an increase in DOM. It will be interesting to see if that was the case for the following months. Excerpt below from TAMU Real Estate Center.
  

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  The state's average days on market (DOM) fell to 61 days in October, a two-day drop. Houston had the largest decreasefrom 53 to 50 days, a 4.3 percent decrease. Austin also fell from 73 days to 71 days, a 3.3 percent decrease, followed by San Antonio, which went from 74 days to 73 days, a 2.1 percent decrease. Dallas was the only Big Four city to see an increase in DOMfrom 54 to 56 days, a 4 percent increase.

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The UST10 is sitting at 20bps below its recent high in January. Translating into a 17bps decrease on mortgage rates (average at 6.87% per Freddie for 30-Year). Buyers will come out in force below 6%

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One comment I will throw out, is that rates dipping back into the 5's will also shake a lot more homes into the market as some sellers will feel confident a buyer can hit their price that may now seem unreasonable, and others who feel stuck in a house they've grown out of or doesn't fit their current appetite might finally feel its time to trade out of that low mortgage. I'm not sure demand will increase more than supply. It will be interesting to watch.

HOUSTON

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Houston's resilient housing market weathered a rare winter storm in January. While the record snowfall caused temporary disruptions, the market quickly rebounded and maintained a healthy balance between supply and demand.....

The high end of the market continued to experience a wave of buyer interest. The luxury segment ($1 million+) recorded a 20.7 percent increase in sales compared to last January. Next was the $500,000 to $999,999 segment which saw an 8.1 percent gain. Homes priced between $250,000 and $499,999 made up the most sales in January, but sales were 1.6 percent below last year's level. The segment comprised of homes priced $149,99 and below also experienced a slowdown in sales activity....

The rental market started the new year strong with increased demand. HAR will publish its January 2025 Rental Home Update on Wednesday, February 19.

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The Facts

• Months inventory stretched from 4.0 months in December to 4.3 months in January. This number is up from 3.2 YOY. This is more normal than what we saw last month but not quite to what I would want to see inventory grow in a winter sales season. I'd like to see another 0.3 months of inventory growth in February before the Spring sales season begins.
• Mean and Median prices are up 4.4% and 1.6%, respectively, YOY.
• Total Property Sales (1.3%), Total Dollar Volume (8.9%), and Pending Sales (4.8%) were all up, but greatly tempered compared to last month.
• The 10 Year Treasury Yield is currently sitting at 4.478%. (This is a great way to follow mortgage rates if you aren't plugged in to the rate market with a decent source. Right now, we are at roughly 200 bps (2%) higher than the 10 year on typical mortgage rates, so say 6.5%.)
• Per the CME FedWatch tool, the market is 97.5% sure there will be no rate cut at the next meeting in March, and doesn't anticipate another rate cut until June.
• CPI took a dramatic turn for the worse this last month, rising to 3.0% YOY and 0.5% MOM.

My Take

• This last month, I closed deals in Sienna (yes, it can be done, ha) and a commercial land deal in Katy, as well as put homes under contract in Galveston and Montgomery.
• We have been busy at Red Pear. Although 2024 was a tough year for many, we were up approximately 25% YOY, and up another incredible number to date in 2025 (that I'd prefer not to disclose until the close of the year). I started Red Pear to help Aggies save money and get the best representation possible, and my theory was always that growth in good times would be good, but our growth in down markets would be even better. We've gotten to help HUNDREDS of good Ags over the years, and we'd also love to help you save money while providing full service representation.
• The Houston market, especially the luxury submarkets, is strong. Not crazy, as was the case in the last few years, but a healthy strong. So far, sellers aren't being forced to sell on a mass scale (there are always outliers) so prices are staying fairly constant. On the buyers side, there just isn't a plethora of great options out there to choose from. A "fair" deal is a great outcome for many buyers on a purchase right now.
• HAR published a list of "10 Communities Homebuyers Loved in 2024" on Thursday. I normally don't share all of these types of reports, but I think this one is cool in that it shows where the growth is really happening in Houston right. Lots of names that you're probably aware of, but the volume of some of these increases in Transactions might surprise you.
• Rental report will be released later this week.
• For our Earl Rudder Way development, we have siding, windows, and some plumbing.
• For our Lou Ellen development, we are just starting framing on our first unit.
• For our luxury build in Garden Oaks, we started foundation work last week and are hoping to pour this week.
• I'm also doing a 1,350 SF addition to my home in Oak Forest. We poured on December 13 and are hoping to be done in about another month. 3 months including holidays and snowstorms is pretty crazy!
• On that note, the construction labor market has been rocky over the last few weeks. I'm hearing stories that lots of labor in Houston is afraid to show up to work each day. Definitely something to consider if you plan to build in the near future!

Sources

• https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
• https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
• https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2157
• https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2158

• https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Houston Rentals

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Despite temporary disruptions from a winter storm, Houston's single-family market started the new year on solid footing. However, the townhome and condo rental market experienced a slowdown in leasing activity in January.....

"The strong performance of single-family rentals, even amid winter weather and economic fluctuations, is a clear indicator of sustained demand and potential for future growth in Houston's rental market this year," said HAR Chair Shae Cottar with LPT Realty.

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Source:

https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2159

10 year context from HAR

Sales


Rentals

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Key Market Highlights for January 2025

--> Close to Original List Price: Homes sold at an average of 93.3% of their original list price.
--> Days on Market (DOM): Homes averaged 83 days on the market, a 19% YoY increase, indicating a slightly slower sales pace.
--> Price Per Square Foot: Dropped 1% YoY to $171, reflecting slight pricing adjustments.
--> Months of Inventory: 4.64 months, suggesting a balanced market.
--> Average Residential Rental Price: $1,786, demonstrating continued demand for rental properties.

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What I'm seeing:

- Buyer activity is picking up in the SA suburbs - helped a Buyer score a great 2 acre lot in Vintage Oaks last month to build their dream home. Data in that particular area is showing quick sales on larger lots.
- Buyers are starting to move, but houses have been sitting for a couple of months now. It's a great time to buy as a lot of Sellers are getting desperate.


San Antonio:


New Braunfels:


Boerne:


Guadalupe County:


DeWitt County:


Victoria:


Texas:


If we've missed your area - let me know and I'll get it posted for you.



https://sabor.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/SABOR-January-2025-SA-Market-Stats-Press-Release.pdf